Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

The Economic Value of Residential Land in Historical Areas: An Application of the Residual Method to the Secondary Market

Land value bears significant weight in house prices in historical town centers. An essential aim for regulating the mortgage market, particularly in the financial and property crisis that countries such as Spain are undergoing, is to have at hand objective procedures for its valuation, whatever the conditions (location, construction, planning). Of all the factors contributing to house price make-up, the land is the only one whose value does not depend on acquisition cost, but rather on the location-time binomial. That is to say, the specific circumstances at that point and at the exact moment of valuation. For this reason, the most commonly applied procedure for land valuation in town centers is the use of the residual method: once the selling price of new housing in a district is known, the other necessary costs and expenses of development are deducted, including those of building and the developer’s profit. The value left is that of the land. To apply these procedures it is vital to have figures such as building costs, technical fees, tax costs, etc. But, above all, it is essential to obtain the selling price of the new housing. This is not always feasible, on account of the lack of newbuild development in this location. This shortage of information occurs in historical town cities, where urban renewal is slight due to the heritage-protection policies, and where, nevertheless there is substantial activity in the secondary market. In these circumstances, as an alternative for land valuation in consolidated urban areas, we have the adaptation of the residual method to the particular characteristics of the secondary market. To these ends, there is the proposal for the appreciation of the dwelling which follows, in a backwards direction, the application of traditional depreciation methods proposed by the various valuation manuals and guidelines. The reliability of the results obtained is analyzed by contrasting it with published figures for newly-built properties, according to different rules applied in administrative appraisals in Spain and the incidence of an eventual correction due to conservation state.

Multiprotocol Android Application for Smart Control and Monitoring in Buildings

This paper presents a multiprotocol mobile application for building automation which supports and enables the integration of the most representative control technologies such as KNX, LonWorks and X-10. The application includes a real-time monitoring service. Finally, advanced control functionalities based on gestures recognition and predefined scenes have been implemented. This application has been developed and tested in the Energy Efficiency Research Facility located at CeDInt-UPM, where electrical loads, blinds and HVAC and lighting systems can be controlled.

Evaluation and implementation of a hybrid cross-platform application combining mobile web-technologies and native device functions

Este Proyecto de Fin de Carrera presenta un prototipo de aplicación móvil híbrida multi-plataforma para Android y iOS. Las aplicaciones móviles híbridas son una combinación de aplicaciones web móviles y aplicaciones móviles nativas. Se desarrollan parcialmente con tecnologías web y pueden acceder a la capa nativa y sensores del teléfono. Para el usuario se presentan como aplicaciones nativas, ya que se pueden descargar de las tiendas de aplicaciones y son instaladas en el dispositivo. El prototipo consiste en la migración del módulo de noticias financieras de las aplicaciones actuales para móviles de una compañía bancaria reimplementándolo como aplicación híbrida utilizando uno de los entornos de desarrollo disponibles en el mercado para este propósito. El desarrollo de aplicaciones híbridas puede ahorrar tiempo y dinero cuando se pretende alcanzar más de una plataforma móvil. El objetivo es la evaluación de las ventajas e inconvenientes que ofrece el desarrollo de aplicaciones híbridas en términos de reducción de costes, tiempo de desarrollo y resultado final de la aplicación. El proyecto consta de varias fases. Durante la primera fase se realiza un estudio sobre las aplicaciones híbridas que podemos encontrar hoy en día en el mercado utilizando los ejemplos de linkedIn, Facebook y Financial times. Se hace hincapié en las tecnologías utilizadas, uso de la red móvil y problemas encontrados. Posteriormente se realiza una comparación de distintos entornos de desarrollo multi-plataforma para aplicaciones híbridas en términos de la estrategia utilizada, plataformas soportadas, lenguajes de programación, acceso a capacidades nativas de los dispositivos y licencias de uso. Esta primera fase da como resultado la elección del entorno de desarrollo más adecuado a las exigencias del proyecto, que es PhoneGap, y continua con un análisis más detallado de dicho entorno en cuanto a su arquitectura, características y componentes. La siguiente fase comienza con un estudio de las aplicaciones actuales de la compañía para extraer el código fuente necesario y adaptarlo a la arquitectura que tendrá la aplicación. Para la realización del prototipo se hace uso de la característica que ofrece PhoneGap para acceder a la capa nativa del dispositivo, esto es, el uso de plugins. Se diseña y desarrolla un plugin que permite acceder a la capa nativa para cada plataforma. Una vez desarrollado el prototipo para la plataforma Android, se migra y adapta para la plataforma iOS. Por último se hace una evaluación de los prototipos en cuanto a su facilidad y tiempo de desarrollo, rendimiento, funcionalidad y apariencia de la interfaz de usuario. ABSTRACT. This bachelor's thesis presents a prototype of a hybrid cross-platform mobile application for Android and iOS. Hybrid mobile applications are a combination of mobile web and mobile native applications. They are built partially with web technologies and they can also access native features and sensors of the device. For a user, they look like native applications as they are downloaded from the application stores and installed on the device. This prototype consists of the migration of the financial news module of current mobile applications from a financial bank reimplementing them as a hybrid application using one of the frameworks available in the market for that purpose. Development of applications on a hybrid way can help reducing costs and effort when targeting more than one platform. The target of the project is the evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages that hybrid development can offer in terms of reducing costs and efforts and the final result of the application. The project starts with an analysis of successfully released hybrid applications using the examples of linkedIn, Facebook and Financial Times, emphasizing the different used technologies, the transmitted network data and the encountered problems during the development. This analysis is followed by a comparison of most popular hybrid crossplatform development frameworks in terms of the different approaches, supported platforms, programming languages, access to native features and license. This first stage has the outcome of finding the development framework that best fits to the requirements of the project, that is PhoneGap, and continues with a deeper analysis of its architecture, features and components. Next stage analyzes current company's applications to extract the needed source code and adapt it to the architecture of the prototype. For the realization of the application, the feature that PhoneGap offers to access the native layer of the device is used. This feature is called plugin. A custom plugin is designed and developed to access the native layer of each targeted platform. Once the prototype is finished for Android, it is migrated and adapted to the iOS platform. As a final conclusion the prototypes are evaluated in terms of ease and time of development, performance, functionality and look and feel.

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Desarrollo de una aplicación Android para administración y gestión de la información de registro de servicios en una plataforma SOA

Este Proyecto Fin de Grado está enmarcado dentro de las actividades del GRyS (Grupo de Redes y Servicios de Próxima Generación) con las Smart Grids. En la investigación actual sobre Smart Grids se pretenden alcanzar los siguientes objetivos: . Integrar fuentes de energías renovables de manera efectiva. . Aumentar la eficiencia en la gestión de la demanda y suministro de forma dinámica. . Reducir las emisiones de CO2 dando prioridad a fuentes de energía verdes. . Concienciar del consumo de energía mediante la monitorización de dispositivos y servicios. . Estimular el desarrollo de un mercado vanguardista de tecnologías energéticamente eficientes con nuevos modelos de negocio. Dentro del contexto de las Smart Grids, el interés del GRyS se extiende básicamente a la creación de middlewares semánticos y tecnologías afines, como las ontologías de servicios y las bases de datos semánticas. El objetivo de este Proyecto Fin de Grado ha sido diseñar y desarrollar una aplicación para dispositivos con sistema operativo Android, que implementa una interfaz gráfica y los métodos necesarios para obtener y representar información de registro de servicios de una plataforma SOA (Service-Oriented Architecture). La aplicación permite: . Representar información relativa a los servicios y dispositivos registrados en una Smart Grid. . Guardar, cargar y compartir por correo electrónico ficheros HTML con la información anterior. . Representar en un mapa la ubicación de los dispositivos. . Representar medidas (voltaje, temperatura, etc.) en tiempo real. . Aplicar filtros por identificador de dispositivo, modelo o fabricante. . Realizar consultas SPARQL a bases de datos semánticas. . Guardar y cagar consultas SPARQL en ficheros de texto almacenados en la tarjeta SD. La aplicación, desarrollada en Java, es de código libre y hace uso de tecnologías estándar y abiertas como HTML, XML, SPARQL y servicios RESTful. Se ha tenido ocasión de probarla con la infraestructura del proyecto europeo e-Gotham (Sustainable-Smart Grid Open System for the Aggregated Control, Monitoring and Management of Energy), en el que participan 17 socios de 5 países: España, Italia, Estonia, Finlandia y Noruega. En esta memoria se detalla el estudio realizado sobre el Estado del arte y las tecnologías utilizadas en el desarrollo del proyecto, la implementación, diseño y arquitectura de la aplicación, así como las pruebas realizadas y los resultados obtenidos. ABSTRACT. This Final Degree Project is framed within the activities of the GRyS (Grupo de Redes y Servicios de Próxima Generación) with the Smart Grids. Current research on Smart Grids aims to achieve the following objectives: . To effectively integrate renewable energy sources. . To increase management efficiency by dynamically matching demand and supply. . To reduce carbon emissions by giving priority to green energy sources. . To raise energy consumption awareness by monitoring products and services. . To stimulate the development of a leading-edge market for energy-efficient technologies with new business models. Within the context of the Smart Grids, the interest of the GRyS basically extends to the creation of semantic middleware and related technologies, such as service ontologies and semantic data bases. The objective of this Final Degree Project has been to design and develop an application for devices with Android operating system, which implements a graphical interface and methods to obtain and represent services registry information in a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) platform. The application allows users to: . Represent information related to services and devices registered in a Smart Grid. . Save, load and share HTML files with the above information by email. . Represent the location of devices on a map. . Represent measures (voltage, temperature, etc.) in real time. . Apply filters by device id, model or manufacturer. . SPARQL query semantic database. . Save and load SPARQL queries in text files stored on the SD card. The application, developed in Java, is open source and uses open standards such as HTML, XML, SPARQL and RESTful services technologies. It has been tested in a real environment using the e-Gotham European project infrastructure (Sustainable-Smart Grid Open System for the Aggregated Control, Monitoring and Management of Energy), which is participated by 17 partners from 5 countries: Spain, Italy, Estonia, Finland and Norway. This report details the study on the State of the art and the technologies used in the development of the project, implementation, design and architecture of the application, as well as the tests performed and the results obtained.

Parametric & nonparametric approaches to event studies: an application to a hotel’s market value

The main objective of this paper is twofold: on the one hand, to analyse the impact that the announcement of the opening of a new hotel has on the performance of its chain by carrying out an event study, and on the other hand, to compare the results of two different approaches to this method: a parametric specification based on the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models to estimate the market model, and a nonparametric approach, which implies employing Theil’s nonparametric regression technique, which in turn, leads to the so-called complete nonparametric approach to event studies. The results that the empirical application arrives at are noteworthy as, on average, the reaction to such news releases is highly positive, both approaches reaching the same level of significance. However, a word of caution must be said when one is not only interested in detecting whether the market reacts, but also in obtaining an exhaustive calculation of the abnormal returns to further examine its determining factors.

Home Manager Application su Android ART: progetto e realizzazione in ottica modern UI

Questa tesi si occupa della realizzazione, in ottica Modern UI, di una nuova interfaccia per l'applicazione Android del sistema domotico Home Manager. Dopo una prima fase di analisi preliminare, si affronta la progettazione dell'app, dall'analisi dei requisiti - ivi incluso il nuovo strumento di sviluppo da utilizzare, Android Studio - alla successiva analisi e progettazione della nuova soluzione, seguita da implementazione e collaudo.

Dynalog: an automated dynamic analysis framework for characterizing android applications

Android is becoming ubiquitous and currently has the largest share of the mobile OS market with billions of application downloads from the official app market. It has also become the platform most targeted by mobile malware that are becoming more sophisticated to evade state-of-the-art detection approaches. Many Android malware families employ obfuscation techniques in order to avoid detection and this may defeat static analysis based approaches. Dynamic analysis on the other hand may be used to overcome this limitation. Hence in this paper we propose DynaLog, a dynamic analysis based framework for characterizing Android applications. The framework provides the capability to analyse the behaviour of applications based on an extensive number of dynamic features. It provides an automated platform for mass analysis and characterization of apps that is useful for quickly identifying and isolating malicious applications. The DynaLog framework leverages existing open source tools to extract and log high level behaviours, API calls, and critical events that can be used to explore the characteristics of an application, thus providing an extensible dynamic analysis platform for detecting Android malware. DynaLog is evaluated using real malware samples and clean applications demonstrating its capabilities for effective analysis and detection of malicious applications.