Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Improved procedures for business accommodation on transportation construction projects

Highway construction projects have direct impacts on adjacent businesses. The nature and the degree of impact depend on individual business characterization and project specific factors. The type of business is also a relevant factor in predicting the impact of transportation construction projects. This paper presents the results of research focused on developing an in-depth understanding of these relationships. The study includes project case studies of three transportation construction projects in Florida. Surveys were conducted with all adjacent businesses, which were combined with analyses of the business accommodation procedures employed by State Highway Agencies (SHAs) nationwide to provide measure the efficiency of present rules. The results include an analysis of differing priorities for different classification of businesses and development of design and construction management best practices to better accommodate businesses during highway construction. A pilot project that employed business accommodation principles devised in this research, and improvements to business accommodations observed were compared to cases where no measures were taken.

Electron transport across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas : an alternative approach for obtaining evidence of Bohm mechanism

A comparative study involving both experimental and numerical investigations was made to resolve a long-standing problem of understanding electron conductivity mechanism across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas. We have calculated the plasma parameters from experimentally obtained electric field distribution, and then made a 'back' comparison with the distributions of electron energy and plasma density obtained in the experiment. This approach significantly reduces an influence of the assumption about particular phenomenology of the electron conductivity in plasma. The results of the experiment and calculations made by this technique have showed that the classical conductivity is not capable of providing realistic total current and electron energy, whereas the phenomenological anomalous Bohm mobility has demonstrated a very good agreement with the experiment. These results provide an evidence in favor of the Bohm conductivity, thus making it possible to clarify this pressing long-living question about the main driving mechanism responsible for the electron transport in low-temperature plasmas.

Development of gas sensing technology for ground and airborne applications powered by solar energy : methodology and experimental results

Monitoring gases for environmental, industrial and agricultural fields is a demanding task that requires long periods of observation, large quantity of sensors, data management, high temporal and spatial resolution, long term stability, recalibration procedures, computational resources, and energy availability. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are currently representing the best alternative to monitor large, remote, and difficult access areas, as these technologies have the possibility of carrying specialised gas sensing systems, and offer the possibility of geo-located and time stamp samples. However, these technologies are not fully functional for scientific and commercial applications as their development and availability is limited by a number of factors: the cost of sensors required to cover large areas, their stability over long periods, their power consumption, and the weight of the system to be used on small UAVs. Energy availability is a serious challenge when WSN are deployed in remote areas with difficult access to the grid, while small UAVs are limited by the energy in their reservoir tank or batteries. Another important challenge is the management of data produced by the sensor nodes, requiring large amount of resources to be stored, analysed and displayed after long periods of operation. In response to these challenges, this research proposes the following solutions aiming to improve the availability and development of these technologies for gas sensing monitoring: first, the integration of WSNs and UAVs for environmental gas sensing in order to monitor large volumes at ground and aerial levels with a minimum of sensor nodes for an effective 3D monitoring; second, the use of solar energy as a main power source to allow continuous monitoring; and lastly, the creation of a data management platform to store, analyse and share the information with operators and external users. The principal outcomes of this research are the creation of a gas sensing system suitable for monitoring any kind of gas, which has been installed and tested on CH4 and CO2 in a sensor network (WSN) and on a UAV. The use of the same gas sensing system in a WSN and a UAV reduces significantly the complexity and cost of the application as it allows: a) the standardisation of the signal acquisition and data processing, thereby reducing the required computational resources; b) the standardisation of calibration and operational procedures, reducing systematic errors and complexity; c) the reduction of the weight and energy consumption, leading to an improved power management and weight balance in the case of UAVs; d) the simplification of the sensor node architecture, which is easily replicated in all the nodes. I evaluated two different sensor modules by laboratory, bench, and field tests: a non-dispersive infrared module (NDIR) and a metal-oxide resistive nano-sensor module (MOX nano-sensor). The tests revealed advantages and disadvantages of the two modules when used for static nodes at the ground level and mobile nodes on-board a UAV. Commercial NDIR modules for CO2 have been successfully tested and evaluated in the WSN and on board of the UAV. Their advantage is the precision and stability, but their application is limited to a few gases. The advantages of the MOX nano-sensors are the small size, low weight, low power consumption and their sensitivity to a broad range of gases. However, selectivity is still a concern that needs to be addressed with further studies. An electronic board to interface sensors in a large range of resistivity was successfully designed, created and adapted to operate on ground nodes and on-board UAV. The WSN and UAV created were powered with solar energy in order to facilitate outdoor deployment, data collection and continuous monitoring over large and remote volumes. The gas sensing, solar power, transmission and data management systems of the WSN and UAV were fully evaluated by laboratory, bench and field testing. The methodology created to design, developed, integrate and test these systems was extensively described and experimentally validated. The sampling and transmission capabilities of the WSN and UAV were successfully tested in an emulated mission involving the detection and measurement of CO2 concentrations in a field coming from a contaminant source; the data collected during the mission was transmitted in real time to a central node for data analysis and 3D mapping of the target gas. The major outcome of this research is the accomplishment of the first flight mission, never reported before in the literature, of a solar powered UAV equipped with a CO2 sensing system in conjunction with a network of ground sensor nodes for an effective 3D monitoring of the target gas. A data management platform was created using an external internet server, which manages, stores, and shares the data collected in two web pages, showing statistics and static graph images for internal and external users as requested. The system was bench tested with real data produced by the sensor nodes and the architecture of the platform was widely described and illustrated in order to provide guidance and support on how to replicate the system. In conclusion, the overall results of the project provide guidance on how to create a gas sensing system integrating WSNs and UAVs, how to power the system with solar energy and manage the data produced by the sensor nodes. This system can be used in a wide range of outdoor applications, especially in agriculture, bushfires, mining studies, zoology, and botanical studies opening the way to an ubiquitous low cost environmental monitoring, which may help to decrease our carbon footprint and to improve the health of the planet.

Plasmodium falciparum parasites lacking histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 : a review and recommendations for accurate reporting

Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) play a critical role in malaria case management, surveillance and case investigations. Test performance is largely determined by design and quality characteristics, such as detection sensitivity, specificity, and thermal stability. However, parasite characteristics such as variable or absent expression of antigens targeted by RDTs can also affect RDT performance. Plasmodium falciparum parasites lacking the PfHRP2 protein, the most common target antigen for detection of P. falciparum, have been reported in some regions. Therefore, accurately mapping the presence and prevalence of P. falciparum parasites lacking pfhrp2 would be an important step so that RDTs targeting alternative antigens, or microscopy, can be preferentially selected for use in such regions. Herein the available evidence and molecular basis for identifying malaria parasites lacking PfHRP2 is reviewed, and a set of recommended procedures to apply for future investigations for parasites lacking PfHRP2, is proposed.

Harvesting as an alternative to burning for managing Spinifex Grasslands in Australia

Sustainable harvesting of grasslands can buffer large scale wildfires and the harvested biomass can be used for various products. Spinifex (Triodia spp.) grasslands cover ≈30% of the Australian continent and form the dominant vegetation in the driest regions. Harvesting near settlements is being considered as a means to reduce the occurrence and intensity of wildfires and to source biomaterials for sustainable desert living. However, it is unknown if harvesting spinifex grasslands can be done sustainably without loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. We examined the trajectory of plant regeneration of burned and harvested spinifex grassland, floristic diversity, nutrient concentrations in soil and plants, and seed germination in controlled ex situ conditions. After two to three years of burning or harvesting in dry or wet seasons, species richness, diversity, and concentrations of most nutrients in soil and leaves of regenerating spinifex plants were overall similar in burned and harvested plots. Germination tests showed that 20% of species require fire-related cues to trigger germination, indicating that fire is essential for the regeneration of some species. Further experimentation should evaluate these findings and explore if harvesting and intervention, such as sowing of fire-cued seeds, allow sustainable, localised harvesting of spinifex grasslands.

Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles

This study investigates potential demand for infrastructure investment for alternative fuel vehicles by applying stated preference methods to a Japanese sample. The potential demand is estimated on the basis of how much people are willing to pay for alternative fuel vehicles under various refueling scenarios. Using the estimated parameters, the economic efficiency of establishing battery-exchange stations for electric vehicles is examined. The results indicate that infrastructural development of battery-exchange stations can be efficient when electric vehicle sales exceed 5.63% of all new vehicle sales. Further, we find a complementary relationship between the cruising ranges of alternative fuel vehicles and the infrastructure established.

An alternative theory of legacy information systems

Organisational dependence upon IT continues to grow yet experiences of satisfaction vary widely. Problematic, aged IT is often cited as being a fundamental problem in this respect and this is commonly termed legacy information systems. However, in this paper the author offers an alternative, and arguably more comprehensive, theory of legacy information systems that accommodates multiple viewpoints and recognises its inherent dynamism. The paper suggests a theory of legacy information systems that comprises of the concepts of temporal effects, interpretations and characteristics. It is argued that legacy information systems are constructed of many ‘legacies’ that are handed down continuously, forming an amorphous set of sociotechnical interdependencies and relationships.

Best of breed IT strategy: an alternative to enterprise resource planning systems

Abstract - Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) software has become the dominant strategic platform for supporting enterprise-wide business processes. However, single vendor ERP software systems have been criticised for not meeting specific organisation and industry requirements. An alternative approach ‘Best of Breed (BoB)’, integrates components of software from multiple standard package vendors, and in some cases custom components. The objective is to develop enterprise systems that are more closely aligned with the requirements of an organisation. Although this approach may not be common at present it is likely to grow in importance due to business needs and technology advances such as the componentisation of ERP software. A case study analysis of a BoB implementation at a global entertainment's company is used as a platform for the discussion of the issues associated with this strategy and a comparison is made with the single vendor ERP alternative. The analysis centres on the complexity of implementation, the differences in the levels of functionality and business fit and the maintenance requirements.

Psip1/Ledgf p52 binds methylated histone H3K36 and splicing factors and contributes to the regulation of alternative splicing

Increasing evidence suggests that chromatin modifications have important roles in modulating constitutive or alternative splicing. Here we demonstrate that the PWWP domain of the chromatin-associated protein Psip1/Ledgf can specifically recognize tri-methylated H3K36 and that, like this histone modification, the Psip1 short (p52) isoform is enriched at active genes. We show that the p52, but not the long (p75), isoform of Psip1 co-localizes and interacts with Srsf1 and other proteins involved in mRNA processing. The level of H3K36me3 associated Srsf1 is reduced in Psip1 mutant cells and alternative splicing of specific genes is affected. Moreover, we show altered Srsf1 distribution around the alternatively spliced exons of these genes in Psip1 null cells. We propose that Psip1/p52, through its binding to both chromatin and splicing factors, might act to modulate splicing.

An alternative approach to setting a mill

The conventional approach to setting a milling unit is essentially based on the desire to achieve a particular bagasse moisture content or fibre fill in each nip of the mill. This approach relies on the selection of the speed at which the mill will operate for the selected fibre rate. There is rarely any checking that the selected speed or the selected fibre fill is achieved and the same set of assumptions is generally carried over to use again in the next year. The conventional approach largely ignores the fact that the selection of mill settings actually determines the speed at which the mill will operate. Making an adjustment with the intent of changing the performance of the mill often also changes the speed of the mill as an unintended consequence. This paper presents an alternative approach to mill setting. The approach discussed makes use of mill feeding theory to define the relationship between fibre rate, mill speed and mill settings and uses that theory to provide an alternative means of determining the settings in some nips of the mill. Mill feeding theory shows that, as the feed work opening reduces, roll speed increases. The theory also shows that there is an optimal underfeed opening and Donnelly chute exit opening that will minimise roll speed and that the current South African guidelines appear to be well away from those optimal values.

The special branch : governing mentalities through alternative-site placement

"…one should try to locate power at the extreme points of its exercise, where it is always less legal in character." (Foucault, 1980, p.97) Studies of schooling practices as techniques deriving from a particular art of governing that Foucault (2003b) called ‘governmentality’ have shown how psychopathologising discourses work to construct particular student-subjects and legitimise various practices of exclusion (Gram, 2007b). Here I extend this work to consider the use of alternative-site placement as an intensification in response to governmentality being put ‘at risk’. Governing ‘at a distance’ conjures an illusion of individual freedom which relies on the production of subjects who ‘choose’ to make choices that are consistent with the aspirations of government. In this chapter, it is argued that the designation of a child as ‘disorderly’ legitimises the intrusion of state into the private domain of the family via the Trojan horse of early intervention. This is enabled by the psy-sciences, whose technologies and aims amount to the moral retraining of ‘improper’ future-citizens who, in choosing to choose otherwise, threaten to make visible invisible relations of power. Alternative-site placement in special schools running intensive behaviour modification programs allows for a ‘redoubled insistence’ (Ewald, 1992) of these norms and limits that a ‘disorderly’ child threatens to transgress.

Selection procedures for module discovery : exploring evolutionary algorithms for cognitive science

Evolutionary algorithms are playing an increasingly important role as search methods in cognitive science domains. In this study, methodological issues in the use of evolutionary algorithms were investigated via simulations in which procedures were systematically varied to modify the selection pressures on populations of evolving agents. Traditional roulette wheel, tournament, and variations of these selection algorithms were compared on the “needle-in-a-haystack” problem developed by Hinton and Nowlan in their 1987 study of the Baldwin effect. The task is an important one for cognitive science, as it demonstrates the power of learning as a local search technique in smoothing a fitness landscape that lacks gradient information. One aspect that has continued to foster interest in the problem is the observation of residual learning ability in simulated populations even after long periods of time. Effective evolutionary algorithms balance their search effort between broad exploration of the search space and in-depth exploitation of promising solutions already found. Issues discussed include the differential effects of rank and proportional selection, the tradeoff between migration of populations towards good solutions and maintenance of diversity, and the development of measures that illustrate how each selection algorithm affects the search process over generations. We show that both roulette wheel and tournament algorithms can be modified to appropriately balance search between exploration and exploitation, and effectively eliminate residual learning in this problem.