Antarctic air over New Zealand following vortex breakdown in 1998

An ozonesonde profile over the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) site at Lauder (45.0° S, 169.7° E), New Zealand, for 24 December 1998 showed atypically low ozone centered around 24 km altitude (600 K potential temperature). The origin of the anomaly is explained using reverse domain filling (RDF) calculations combined with a PV/O3 fitting technique applied to ozone measurements from the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. The RDF calculations for two isentropic surfaces, 550 and 600 K, show that ozone-poor air from the Antarctic polar vortex reached New Zealand on 24–26 December 1998. The vortex air on the 550 K isentrope originated in the ozone hole region, unlike the air on 600 K where low ozone values were caused by dynamical effects. High-resolution ozone maps were generated, and their examination shows that a vortex remnant situated above New Zealand was the cause of the altered ozone profile on 24 December. The maps also illustrate mixing of the vortex filaments into southern midlatitudes, whereby the overall mid-latitude ozone levels were decreased.

‘Nudging’ energy users: regulatory measures to address the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets

For decades regulators in the energy sector have focused on facilitating the maximisation of energy supply in order to meet demand through liberalisation and removal of market barriers. The debate on climate change has emphasised a new type of risk in the balance between energy demand and supply: excessively high energy demand brings about significantly negative environmental and economic impacts. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, energy suppliers have to activate dirty old power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs. The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market requires a systematic investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper draws on the e-Living Time-Use Survey database to assess the risk of aggregate peak residential electricity demand for European energy markets. Findings highlight in which countries and for what activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is greater. The discussion highlights which approaches energy regulators have started considering to convince users about the risks of consuming too much energy during peak times. These include ‘nudging’ approaches such as the roll-out of smart meters, incentives for shifting the timing of energy consumption, differentiated time-of-use tariffs, regulatory financial incentives and consumption data sharing at the community level.

Effect of shear rupture on aggregate scale formation in sea ice

A discrete element model is used to study shear rupture of sea ice under convergent wind stresses. The model includes compressive, tensile, and shear rupture of viscous elastic joints connecting floes that move under the action of the wind stresses. The adopted shear rupture is governed by Coulomb’s criterion. The ice pack is a 400 km long square domain consisting of 4 km size floes. In the standard case with tensile strength 10 times smaller than the compressive strength, under uniaxial compression the failure regime is mainly shear rupture with the most probable scenario corresponding to that with the minimum failure work. The orientation of cracks delineating formed aggregates is bimodal with the peaks around the angles given by the wing crack theory determining diamond-shaped blocks. The ice block (floe aggregate) size decreases as the wind stress gradient increases since the elastic strain energy grows faster leading to a higher speed of crack propagation. As the tensile strength grows, shear rupture becomes harder to attain and compressive failure becomes equally important leading to elongation of blocks perpendicular to the compression direction and the blocks grow larger. In the standard case, as the wind stress confinement ratio increases the failure mode changes at a confinement ratio within 0.2–0.4, which corresponds to the analytical critical confinement ratio of 0.32. Below this value, the cracks are bimodal delineating diamond shape aggregates, while above this value failure becomes isotropic and is determined by small-scale stress anomalies due to irregularities in floe shape.

On the seasonal onset of polar mesospheric clouds and the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs), also known as noctilucent clouds, have been observed to be more variable and, in general, dimmer than their Northern Hemisphere (NH) counterparts. The precise cause of these hemispheric differences is not well understood. This paper focuses on one aspect of the hemispheric differences: the timing of the PMC season onset. Observations from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite indicate that in recent years the date on which the PMC season begins varies much more in the SH than in the NH. Using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, we show that the generation of sufficiently low temperatures necessary for cloud formation in the SH summer polar mesosphere is perturbed by year‐to‐year variations in the timing of the late‐spring breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. These stratospheric variations, which persist until the end of December, influence the propagation of gravity waves up to the mesosphere. This adds a stratospheric control to the temperatures in the polar mesopause region during early summer, which causes the onset of PMCs to vary from one year to another. This effect is much stronger in the SH than in the NH because the breakdown of the polar vortex occurs much later in the SH, closer in time to the PMC season.

The cyclical relations between traded property stock prices and aggregate time-series

This paper examines the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic, financial and property market aggregates in relation to the property stock price cycle in the UK. The Hodrick Prescott filter is employed to fit a long-term trend to the raw data, and to derive the short-term cycles of each series. It is found that the cycles of consumer expenditure, total consumption per capita, the dividend yield and the long-term bond yield are moderately correlated, and mainly coincident, with the property price cycle. There is also evidence that the nominal and real Treasury Bill rates and the interest rate spread lead this cycle by one or two quarters, and therefore that these series can be considered leading indicators of property stock prices. This study recommends that macroeconomic and financial variables can provide useful information to explain and potentially to forecast movements of property-backed stock returns in the UK.

Intra-crystalline protein diagenesis (IcPD) in Patella vulgata. Part II: Breakdown and temperature sensitivity

Artificial diagenesis of the intra-crystalline proteins isolated from Patella vulgata was induced by isothermal heating at 140 °C, 110 °C and 80 °C. Protein breakdown was quantified for multiple amino acids, measuring the extent of peptide bond hydrolysis, amino acid racemisation and decomposition. The patterns of diagenesis are complex; therefore the kinetic parameters of the main reactions were estimated by two different methods: 1) a well-established approach based on fitting mathematical expressions to the experimental data, e.g. first-order rate equations for hydrolysis and power-transformed first-order rate equations for racemisation; and 2) an alternative model-free approach, which was developed by estimating a “scaling” factor for the independent variable (time) which produces the best alignment of the experimental data. This method allows the calculation of the relative reaction rates for the different temperatures of isothermal heating. High-temperature data were compared with the extent of degradation detected in sub-fossil Patella specimens of known age, and we evaluated the ability of kinetic experiments to mimic diagenesis at burial temperature. The results highlighted a difference between patterns of degradation at low and high temperature and therefore we recommend caution for the extrapolation of protein breakdown rates to low burial temperatures for geochronological purposes when relying solely on kinetic data.

An aggregate resource efficiency perspective on sustainability: a Sustainable Value application to the EU-15 countries

The Sustainable Value approach integrates the efficiency with regard to environmental, social and economic resources into a monetary indicator. It gained significant popularity as evidenced by diverse applications at the corporate level. However, its introduction as a measure adhering to the strong sustainability paradigm sparked an ardent debate. This study explores its validity as a macroeconomic strong sustainability measure by applying the Sustainable Value approach to the EU-15 countries. Concretely, we assessed environmental, social and economic resources in combination with the GDP for all EU-15 countries from 1995 to 2006 for three benchmark alternatives. The results show that several countries manage to adequately delink resource use from GDP growth. Furthermore, the remarkable difference in outcome between the national and EU-15 benchmark indicates a possible inefficiency of the current allocation of national resource ceilings imposed by the European institutions. Additionally, by using an effects model we argue that the service degree of the economy and governmental expenditures on social protection and research and development are important determinants of overall resource efficiency. Finally, we sketch out three necessary conditions to link the Sustainable Value approach to the strong sustainability paradigm.

Fractal geometry of aggregate snowflakes revealed by triple wavelength radar measurements

Radar reflectivity measurements from three different wavelengths are used to retrieve information about the shape of aggregate snowflakes in deep stratiform ice clouds. Dual-wavelength ratios are calculated for different shape models and compared to observations at 3, 35 and 94 GHz. It is demonstrated that many scattering models, including spherical and spheroidal models, do not adequately describe the aggregate snowflakes that are observed. The observations are consistent with fractal aggregate geometries generated by a physically-based aggregation model. It is demonstrated that the fractal dimension of large aggregates can be inferred directly from the radar data. Fractal dimensions close to 2 are retrieved, consistent with previous theoretical models and in-situ observations.

Equation for the microwave backscatter cross section of aggregate snowflakes using the self-similar Rayleigh–Gans approximation

In this paper an equation is derived for the mean backscatter cross section of an ensemble of snowflakes at centimeter and millimeter wavelengths. It uses the Rayleigh–Gans approximation, which has previously been found to be applicable at these wavelengths due to the low density of snow aggregates. Although the internal structure of an individual snowflake is random and unpredictable, the authors find from simulations of the aggregation process that their structure is “self-similar” and can be described by a power law. This enables an analytic expression to be derived for the backscatter cross section of an ensemble of particles as a function of their maximum dimension in the direction of propagation of the radiation, the volume of ice they contain, a variable describing their mean shape, and two variables describing the shape of the power spectrum. The exponent of the power law is found to be −. In the case of 1-cm snowflakes observed by a 3.2-mm-wavelength radar, the backscatter is 40–100 times larger than that of a homogeneous ice–air spheroid with the same mass, size, and aspect ratio.

Multiscale Curvature Analysis of Asphaltic Aggregate Particles

A new method for characterization and analysis of asphaltic mixtures aggregate particles is reported. By relying on multiscale representation of the particles, curvature estimation, and discriminant analysis for optimal separation of the categories of mixtures, a particularly effective and comprehensive methodology is obtained. The potential of the methodology is illustrated with respect to three important types of particles used in asphaltic mixtures, namely basalt, gabbro, and gravel. The obtained results show that gravel particles are markedly distinct from the other two types of particles, with the gabbro category resulting with intermediate geometrical properties. The importance of each considered measurement in the discrimination between the three categories of particles was also quantified in terms of the adopted discriminant analysis.