Performance evaluation in Bayesian adaptive randomization

Bayesian adaptive randomization (BAR) is an attractive approach to allocate more patients to the putatively superior arm based on the interim data while maintains good statistical properties attributed to randomization. Under this approach, patients are adaptively assigned to a treatment group based on the probability that the treatment is better. The basic randomization scheme can be modified by introducing a tuning parameter, replacing the posterior estimated response probability, setting a boundary to randomization probabilities. Under randomization settings comprised of the above modifications, operating characteristics, including type I error, power, sample size, imbalance of sample size, interim success rate, and overall success rate, were evaluated through simulation. All randomization settings have low and comparable type I errors. Increasing tuning parameter decreases power, but increases imbalance of sample size and interim success rate. Compared with settings using the posterior probability, settings using the estimated response rates have higher power and overall success rate, but less imbalance of sample size and lower interim success rate. Bounded settings have higher power but less imbalance of sample size than unbounded settings. All settings have better performance in the Bayesian design than in the frequentist design. This simulation study provided practical guidance on the choice of how to implement the adaptive design. ^

The role of plasmacytoid dendritic cells in the regulation of adaptive immunity

Plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) selectively express TLR7 which allows them to respond to RNA viruses and TLR9 which allows them to respond to DNA viruses and CpG oligonucleotides. Upon exposure to virus pDCs produce vast amounts of type I interferon (IFN) directly inhibiting viral replication and contributing to the activation of other immune cells. The ability of pDCs to promote B and T cell differentiation through type I IFN has been well documented although the role of additional factors including tumor necrosis factor (TNF) family members has not been thoroughly addressed. Here the expression of selected TNF family members in pDCs was examined and the role of TNF receptor-ligand interactions in the regulation of B and T lymphocyte growth and differentiation by pDCs was investigated. Upon stimulation with CpG-B, pDCs exhibit strong and stable expression of CD70, a TNF family ligand that binds to its receptor CD27 on memory B cells and promotes plasma cell differentiation and Ig secretion. Using an in vitro pDC/B cell co-culture system, it was determined that CpG-B-stimulated pDCs induce the proliferation of CD40L-activated human peripheral B cells and Ig secretion. This occurs independently of IFN and residual CpG, and requires physical contact between pDCs and B cells. CpG-stimulated pDCs induce the proliferation of both naive and memory B cells although Ig secretion is restricted to the memory subset. Blocking the interaction of CD70 with CD27 using an antagonist anti-CD70 antibody reduces the induction of B cell proliferation and IgG secretion by CpG-B-stimulated pDCs. Published studies have also indicated an important role for CD70 in promoting the expansion of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and the development of effector function. CpG-B-stimulated pDCs induce naïve CD4+ T cell proliferation and production of multiple cytokines including IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-10, IL-4, IL-5 and IL-13. Blocking the function of CD70 with an antagonist anti-CD70 antibody significantly reduced the induction of naïve CD4+ T cell proliferation by CpG-B-stimulated pDCs and the production of IL-4 and IL-13. Collectively these data indicate an important role for CD70 in the regulation of B and T lymphocyte growth and differentiation by pDCs. ^

Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

Bayesian adaptive designs in early phase clinical trials

There are two practical challenges in the phase I clinical trial conduct: lack of transparency to physicians, and the late onset toxicity. In my dissertation, Bayesian approaches are used to address these two problems in clinical trial designs. The proposed simple optimal designs cast the dose finding problem as a decision making process for dose escalation and deescalation. The proposed designs minimize the incorrect decision error rate to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). For the late onset toxicity problem, a Bayesian adaptive dose-finding design for drug combination is proposed. The dose-toxicity relationship is modeled using the Finney model. The unobserved delayed toxicity outcomes are treated as missing data and Bayesian data augment is employed to handle the resulting missing data. Extensive simulation studies have been conducted to examine the operating characteristics of the proposed designs and demonstrated the designs' good performances in various practical scenarios.^

Cellular Uptake of Neutrohpil Elastase Links Inflammation to Adaptive Immunity

Many tumors arise from sites of inflammation providing evidence that innate immunity is a critical component in the development and progression of cancer. Neutrophils are primary mediators of the innate immune response. Upon activation, an important function of neutrophils is release of an assortment of proteins from their granules including the serine protease neutrophil elastase (NE). The effect of NE on cancer has been attributed primarily to its ability to degrade the extracellular matrix thereby promoting invasion and metastasis. Recently, it was shown that NE could be taken up by lung cancer cells leading to degradation of insulin receptor substrate-1 thereby promoting hyperactivity of the phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase (PI3K) pathway and tumor cell proliferation. To our knowledge, nobody has investigated uptake of NE by other tumor types. In addition, NE has broad substrate specificity suggesting that uptake of NE by tumor cells could impact processes regulating tumorigenensis other than activation of the PI3K pathway. Neutrophil elastase has been identified in breast cancer specimens where high levels of NE have prognostic significance. These studies have assessed NE levels in whole tumor lysates. Because the major source of NE is from activated neutrophils, we hypothesized that breast cancer cells do not have endogenous NE but may take up NE released by tumor associated neutrophils in the tumor microenvironment and that this could provide a link between the innate immune response to tumors and specific adaptive immune responses. In this thesis, we show that breast cancer cells lack endogenous NE expression and that they are able to take up NE resulting in increased generation of low molecular weight cyclin E (CCNE) and enhanced susceptibility to lysis by CCNE-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes. We also show that after taking up NE and proteinase 3 (PR3), a second primary granule protease with significant homology to NE, breast cancer cells cross-present the NE- and PR3-derived peptide PR1 rendering them susceptible to PR1-targeted therapies. Taken together, our data support a role for NE uptake in modulating adaptive immune responses against breast cancer.