Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Damage assessment in structures using vibration characteristics

Changes in load characteristics, deterioration with age, environmental influences and random actions may cause local or global damage in structures, especially in bridges, which are designed for long life spans. Continuous health monitoring of structures will enable the early identification of distress and allow appropriate retrofitting in order to avoid failure or collapse of the structures. In recent times, structural health monitoring (SHM) has attracted much attention in both research and development. Local and global methods of damage assessment using the monitored information are an integral part of SHM techniques. In the local case, the assessment of the state of a structure is done either by direct visual inspection or using experimental techniques such as acoustic emission, ultrasonic, magnetic particle inspection, radiography and eddy current. A characteristic of all these techniques is that their application requires a prior localization of the damaged zones. The limitations of the local methodologies can be overcome by using vibration-based methods, which give a global damage assessment. The vibration-based damage detection methods use measured changes in dynamic characteristics to evaluate changes in physical properties that may indicate structural damage or degradation. The basic idea is that modal parameters (notably frequencies, mode shapes, and modal damping) are functions of the physical properties of the structure (mass, damping, and stiffness). Changes in the physical properties will therefore cause changes in the modal properties. Any reduction in structural stiffness and increase in damping in the structure may indicate structural damage. This research uses the variations in vibration parameters to develop a multi-criteria method for damage assessment. It incorporates the changes in natural frequencies, modal flexibility and modal strain energy to locate damage in the main load bearing elements in bridge structures such as beams, slabs and trusses and simple bridges involving these elements. Dynamic computer simulation techniques are used to develop and apply the multi-criteria procedure under different damage scenarios. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated through numerical examples. Results show that the proposed method incorporating modal flexibility and modal strain energy changes is competent in damage assessment in the structures treated herein.

Optimal monitoring in family-owned companies? Evidence from Asia

Manuscript Type: Empirical Research Issue: We propose that high levels of monitoring are not always in the best interests of minority shareholders. In family-owned companies the optimal level of board monitoring required by minority shareholders is expected to be lower than that of other companies. This is because the relative benefits and costs of monitoring are different in family-owned companies. Research Findings: At moderate levels of board monitoring, we find concave relationships between board monitoring variables and firm performance for family-owned companies but not for other companies. The optimal level of board monitoring for our sample of Asian family-owned companies equates to board independence of 38%, separation of the Chairman and CEO positions and establishment of audit and remuneration committees. Additional testing shows that the optimal level of board monitoring is sensitive to the magnitude of the agency conflict between the family group and minority shareholders and the presence of substitute monitoring. Practitioner/Policy Implications: For policymakers, the results show that more monitoring is not always in the best interests of minority shareholders. Therefore, it may be inappropriate for regulators to advise all companies to follow the same set of corporate governance guidelines. However, our results also indicate that the board governance practices of family-owned companies are still well below the identified optimal levels. Keywords: Corporate Governance, Board Independence, Board of Directors, Family Firms, Monitoring.

Apparatus for monitoring load bearing rehabilitation exercises of a transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated fixation : a proof-of-concept study

The purpose of this proof-of-concept study was to determine the relevance of direct measurements to monitor the load applied on the osseointegrated fixation of transfemoral amputees during static load bearing exercises. The objectives were (A) to introduce an apparatus using a three-dimensional load transducer, (B) to present a range of derived information relevant to clinicians, (C) to report on the outcomes of a pilot study and (D) to compare the measurements from the transducer with those from the current method using a weighing scale. One transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated implant was asked to apply 10 kg, 20 kg, 40 kg and 80 kg on the fixation, using self-monitoring with the weighing scale. The loading was directly measured with a portable kinetic system including a six-channel transducer, external interface circuitry and a laptop. As the load prescribed increased from 10 kg to 80 kg, the forces and moments applied on and around the antero-posterior axis increased by 4 fold anteriorly and 14 fold medially, respectively. The forces and moments applied on and around the medio-lateral axis increased by 9 fold laterally and 16 fold from anterior to posterior, respectively. The long axis of the fixation was overloaded and underloaded in 17 % and 83 % of the trials, respectively, by up to ±10 %. This proof-of-concept study presents an apparatus that can be used by clinicians facing the challenge of improving basic knowledge on osseointegration, for the design of equipment for load bearing exercises and for rehabilitation programs.

Rover autonomous integrity monitoring of GNSS RTK positioning solutions with multi-constellations

This paper studies receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) algorithms and performance benefits of RTK solutions with multiple-constellations. The proposed method is generally known as Multi-constellation RAIM -McRAIM. The McRAIM algorithms take advantage of the ambiguity invariant character to assist fast identification of multiple satellite faults in the context of multiple constellations, and then detect faulty satellites in the follow-up ambiguity search and position estimation processes. The concept of Virtual Galileo Constellation (VGC) is used to generate useful data sets of dual-constellations for performance analysis. Experimental results from a 24-h data set demonstrate that with GPS&VGC constellations, McRAIM can significantly enhance the detection and exclusion probabilities of two simultaneous faulty satellites in RTK solutions.

Central venous oxygen saturation monitoring

It has been established that mixed venous oxygen saturation (SvO2) reflects the balance between systemic oxygen deliver y and consumption. Literature indicates that it is a valuable clinical indicator and has good prognostic value early in patient course. This article aims to establish the usefulness of SvO2 as a clinical indicator. A secondary aim was to determine whether central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) and SvO2 are interchangeable. Of particular relevance to cardiac nurses is the link between decreased SvO2 and cardiac failure in patients with myocardial infarction, and with decline in myocardial function, clinical shock and arrhythmias. While absolute values ScvO2 and SvO2 are not interchangeable, ScvO2 and SvO2are equivalent in terms of clinical course. Additionally, ScvO2 monitoring is a safer and less costly alternative to SvO2 monitoring. It can be concluded that continuous ScvO2 monitoring should potentially be undertaken in patients at risk of haemodynamic instability.

Building the toolkit of quality monitoring clinical outcomes as a means of assessing quality in residential care

Residential aged care in Australia does not have a system of quality assessment related to clinical outcomes, creating a significant gap in quality monitoring. Clinical outcomes represent the results of all inputs into care, thus providing an indication of the success of those inputs. To fill this gap, an assessment tool based on resident outcomes (the ResCareQA) was developed and evaluated in collaboration with residential care providers. A useful output of the ResCareQA is a profile of resident clinical status, and this paper will use such outputs to present a snapshot of nine residential facilities. Such comprehensive data has not yet been available within Australia, so this will provide an important insight. ResCareQA data was collected from all residents (N=498) of nine aged care facilities from two major aged care providers. For each facility, numerator–denominator data were calculated to assess the degree of potential clinical problems. Results varied across clinical areas and across facilities, and rank-ordered facility results for selected clinical areas are reviewed and discussed. Use of the ResCareQA to generate clinical outcome data provides a concrete means of monitoring care quality within residential facilities; regular use of the ResCareQA could thus contribute to improved care outcomes within residential aged care.

Community food security gaps in surveillance and monitoring

This paper describes the gaps in monitoring and surveillance identified while conducting Community Food Security assessments in three geographical areas located in south-east Queensland, Australia

Investigation of MEMS inertial sensors and aircraft dynamic models in global positioning system integrity monitoring for approaches with vertical guidance

An Approach with Vertical Guidance (APV) is an instrument approach procedure which provides horizontal and vertical guidance to a pilot on approach to landing in reduced visibility conditions. APV approaches can greatly reduce the safety risk to general aviation by improving the pilot’s situational awareness. In particular the incidence of Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) which has occurred in a number of fatal air crashes in general aviation over the past decade in Australia, can be reduced. APV approaches can also improve general aviation operations. If implemented at Australian airports, APV approach procedures are expected to bring a cost saving of millions of dollars to the economy due to fewer missed approaches, diversions and an increased safety benefit. The provision of accurate horizontal and vertical guidance is achievable using the Global Positioning System (GPS). Because aviation is a safety of life application, an aviation-certified GPS receiver must have integrity monitoring or augmentation to ensure that its navigation solution can be trusted. However, the difficulty with the current GPS satellite constellation alone meeting APV integrity requirements, the susceptibility of GPS to jamming or interference and the potential shortcomings of proposed augmentation solutions for Australia such as the Ground-based Regional Augmentation System (GRAS) justifies the investigation of Aircraft Based Augmentation Systems (ABAS) as an alternative integrity solution for general aviation. ABAS augments GPS with other sensors at the aircraft to help it meet the integrity requirements. Typical ABAS designs assume high quality inertial sensors to provide an accurate reference trajectory for Kalman filters. Unfortunately high-quality inertial sensors are too expensive for general aviation. In contrast to these approaches the purpose of this research is to investigate fusing GPS with lower-cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical System (MEMS) Inertial Measurement Units (IMU) and a mathematical model of aircraft dynamics, referred to as an Aircraft Dynamic Model (ADM) in this thesis. Using a model of aircraft dynamics in navigation systems has been studied before in the available literature and shown to be useful particularly for aiding inertial coasting or attitude determination. In contrast to these applications, this thesis investigates its use in ABAS. This thesis presents an ABAS architecture concept which makes use of a MEMS IMU and ADM, named the General Aviation GPS Integrity System (GAGIS) for convenience. GAGIS includes a GPS, MEMS IMU, ADM, a bank of Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) and uses the Normalized Solution Separation (NSS) method for fault detection. The GPS, IMU and ADM information is fused together in a tightly-coupled configuration, with frequent GPS updates applied to correct the IMU and ADM. The use of both IMU and ADM allows for a number of different possible configurations. Three are investigated in this thesis; a GPS-IMU EKF, a GPS-ADM EKF and a GPS-IMU-ADM EKF. The integrity monitoring performance of the GPS-IMU EKF, GPS-ADM EKF and GPS-IMU-ADM EKF architectures are compared against each other and against a stand-alone GPS architecture in a series of computer simulation tests of an APV approach. Typical GPS, IMU, ADM and environmental errors are simulated. The simulation results show the GPS integrity monitoring performance achievable by augmenting GPS with an ADM and low-cost IMU for a general aviation aircraft on an APV approach. A contribution to research is made in determining whether a low-cost IMU or ADM can provide improved integrity monitoring performance over stand-alone GPS. It is found that a reduction of approximately 50% in protection levels is possible using the GPS-IMU EKF or GPS-ADM EKF as well as faster detection of a slowly growing ramp fault on a GPS pseudorange measurement. A second contribution is made in determining how augmenting GPS with an ADM compares to using a low-cost IMU. By comparing the results for the GPS-ADM EKF against the GPS-IMU EKF it is found that protection levels for the GPS-ADM EKF were only approximately 2% higher. This indicates that the GPS-ADM EKF may potentially replace the GPS-IMU EKF for integrity monitoring should the IMU ever fail. In this way the ADM may contribute to the navigation system robustness and redundancy. To investigate this further, a third contribution is made in determining whether or not the ADM can function as an IMU replacement to improve navigation system redundancy by investigating the case of three IMU accelerometers failing. It is found that the failed IMU measurements may be supplemented by the ADM and adequate integrity monitoring performance achieved. Besides treating the IMU and ADM separately as in the GPS-IMU EKF and GPS-ADM EKF, a fourth contribution is made in investigating the possibility of fusing the IMU and ADM information together to achieve greater performance than either alone. This is investigated using the GPS-IMU-ADM EKF. It is found that the GPS-IMU-ADM EKF can achieve protection levels approximately 3% lower in the horizontal and 6% lower in the vertical than a GPS-IMU EKF. However this small improvement may not justify the complexity of fusing the IMU with an ADM in practical systems. Affordable ABAS in general aviation may enhance existing GPS-only fault detection solutions or help overcome any outages in augmentation systems such as the Ground-based Regional Augmentation System (GRAS). Countries such as Australia which currently do not have an augmentation solution for general aviation could especially benefit from the economic savings and safety benefits of satellite navigation-based APV approaches.