maintenance model for systems with phase-type distributed times to failure

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

Infinite time aggregation for the critical Patlak-Keller-Segel model in R2

We analyze the two-dimensional parabolic-elliptic Patlak-Keller-Segel model in the whole Euclidean space R2. Under the hypotheses of integrable initial data with finite second moment and entropy, we first show local in time existence for any mass of "free-energy solutions", namely weak solutions with some free energy estimates. We also prove that the solution exists as long as the entropy is controlled from above. The main result of the paper is to show the global existence of free-energy solutions with initial data as before for the critical mass 8 Π/Χ. Actually, we prove that solutions blow-up as a delta dirac at the center of mass when t→∞ keeping constant their second moment at any time. Furthermore, all moments larger than 2 blow-up as t→∞ if initially bounded.

Functional and histopathological identification of the respiratory failure in a DMSXL transgenic mouse model of myotonic dystrophy.

Acute and chronic respiratory failure is one of the major and potentially life-threatening features in individuals with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). Despite several clinical demonstrations showing respiratory problems in DM1 patients, the mechanisms are still not completely understood. This study was designed to investigate whether the DMSXL transgenic mouse model for DM1 exhibits respiratory disorders and, if so, to identify the pathological changes underlying these respiratory problems. Using pressure plethysmography, we assessed the breathing function in control mice and DMSXL mice generated after large expansions of the CTG repeat in successive generations of DM1 transgenic mice. Statistical analysis of breathing function measurements revealed a significant decrease in the most relevant respiratory parameters in DMSXL mice, indicating impaired respiratory function. Histological and morphometric analysis showed pathological changes in diaphragmatic muscle of DMSXL mice, characterized by an increase in the percentage of type I muscle fibers, the presence of central nuclei, partial denervation of end-plates (EPs) and a significant reduction in their size, shape complexity and density of acetylcholine receptors, all of which reflect a possible breakdown in communication between the diaphragmatic muscles fibers and the nerve terminals. Diaphragm muscle abnormalities were accompanied by an accumulation of mutant DMPK RNA foci in muscle fiber nuclei. Moreover, in DMSXL mice, the unmyelinated phrenic afferents are significantly lower. Also in these mice, significant neuronopathy was not detected in either cervical phrenic motor neurons or brainstem respiratory neurons. Because EPs are involved in the transmission of action potentials and the unmyelinated phrenic afferents exert a modulating influence on the respiratory drive, the pathological alterations affecting these structures might underlie the respiratory impairment detected in DMSXL mice. Understanding mechanisms of respiratory deficiency should guide pharmaceutical and clinical research towards better therapy for the respiratory deficits associated with DM1.

Structural analysis of Turtle mountain (Alberta) using digital elevation model: Toward a progressive failure

In 1903, the eastern slope of Turtle Mountain (Alberta) was affected by a 30 M m3-rockslide named Frank Slide that resulted in more than 70 casualties. Assuming that the main discontinuity sets, including bedding, control part of the slope morphology, the structural features of Turtle Mountain were investigated using a digital elevation model (DEM). Using new landscape analysis techniques, we have identified three main joint and fault sets. These results are in agreement with those sets identified through field observations. Landscape analysis techniques, using a DEM, confirm and refine the most recent geology model of the Frank Slide. The rockslide was initiated along bedding and a fault at the base of the slope and propagated up slope by a regressive process following a surface composed of pre-existing discontinuities. The DEM analysis also permits the identification of important geological structures along the 1903 slide scar. Based on the so called Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) an estimation was made of the present unstable volumes in the main scar delimited by the cracks, and around the south area of the scar (South Peak). The SLBL is a method permitting a geometric interpretation of the failure surface based on a DEM. Finally we propose a failure mechanism permitting the progressive failure of the rock mass that considers gentle dipping wedges (30°). The prisms or wedges defined by two discontinuity sets permit the creation of a failure surface by progressive failure. Such structures are more commonly observed in recent rockslides. This method is efficient and is recommended as a preliminary analysis prior to field investigation.

Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved Vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper we develop time varying parameter models which permit cointegration. Time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) typically use state space representations to model the evolution of parameters. In this paper, we show that it is not sensible to use straightforward extensions of TVP-VARs when allowing for cointegration. Instead we develop a specification which allows for the cointegrating space to evolve over time in a manner comparable to the random walk variation used with TVP-VARs. The properties of our approach are investigated before developing a method of posterior simulation. We use our methods in an empirical investigation involving a permanent/transitory variance decomposition for inflation.

Using Effluent Charges in Promoting Investment in Water Pollution Control Technology: A Model of Coordination Failure among Firms

Untreated wastewater being directly discharged into rivers is a very harmful environmental hazard that needs to be tackled urgently in many countries. In order to safeguard the river ecosystem and reduce water pollution, it is important to have an effluent charge policy that promotes the investment of wastewater treatment technology by domestic firms. This paper considers the strategic interaction between the government and the domestic firms regarding the investment in the wastewater treatment technology and the design of optimal e­ffluent charge policy that should be implemented. In this model, the higher is the proportion of non-investing firms, the higher would be the probability of having to incur an e­ffluent charge and the higher would be that charge. On one hand the government needs to impose a sufficiently strict policy to ensure that firms have strong incentive to invest. On the other hand, it cannot be too strict that it drives out firms which cannot afford to invest in such expensive technology. The paper analyses the factors that affect the probability of investment in this technology. It also explains the difficulty of imposing a strict environment policy in countries that have too many small firms which cannot afford to invest unless subsidised.

Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions

We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix formula and an adaptive numerical algorithm for a continuous time Markov chain to approximate jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. Our approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a flexibility that is very hard to achieve with other numerical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the proposed Markov chain transition density converges to the one given by the likelihood expansion formula as in Ait-Sahalia (2008). We provide numerical examples for European stock option pricing in Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976) and Kou (2002).

Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.

Contagious Illiquidity I: Contagion through Time

This paper is an investigation into the dynamics of asset markets with adverse selection a la Akerlof (1970). The particular question asked is: can market failure at some later date precipitate market failure at an earlier date? The answer is yes: there can be "contagious illiquidity" from the future back to the present. The mechanism works as follows. If the market is expected to break down in the future, then agents holding assets they know to be lemons (assets with low returns) will be forced to hold them for longer - they cannot quickly resell them. As a result, the effective difference in payoff between a lemon and a good asset is greater. But it is known from the static Akerlof model that the greater the payoff differential between lemons and non-lemons, the more likely is the market to break down. Hence market failure in the future is more likely to lead to market failure today. Conversely, if the market is not anticipated to break down in the future, assets can be readily sold and hence an agent discovering that his or her asset is a lemon can quickly jettison it. In effect, there is little difference in payoff between a lemon and a good asset. The logic of the static Akerlof model then runs the other way: the small payoff differential is unlikely to lead to market breakdown today. The conclusion of the paper is that the nature of today's market - liquid or illiquid - hinges critically on the nature of tomorrow's market, which in turn depends on the next day's, and so on. The tail wags the dog.

Structures and failure mechanisms analysis of Turtle Mountain

The 30 M m3 rockslide that occurred on the east face of Turtle Mountain in the Crowsnest Pass area (Alberta) in 1903 is one of the most famous landslides in the world. In this paper, the structural features of the South part of Turtle Mountain are investigated in order to understand the present-day scar morphology and to identify the most important failure mechanisms. The structural features were mapped using a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in order to have a large overview of the relevant structural features. At the same time, a field survey was carried out and small scale fractures were analyzed in different parts of southern Turtle Mountain in order to confirm the DEM analysis. Results allow to identify six main discontinuity sets that influence the Turtle Mountain morphology. These discontinuity sets were then used to identify the potential failure mechanisms affecting Third Peak and South Peak area.

Regulation of the akt signalling in human skeletal muscle atrophy

Abstract : The term "muscle disuse" is often used to refer collectively to reductions in neuromuscular activity as observed with sedentary lifestyles, reduced weight bearing, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic heart failure, spinal cord injury, sarcopenia or exposure to microgravity (spaceflight). Muscle disuse atrophy, caused by accelerated proteolysis, is predominantly due to the activation of the ATP-dependent ubiquitin (Ub) proteasome pathway. The current advances in understanding the molecular factors contributing to the Ub-dependent proteolysis process have been made mostly in rodent models of human disease and denervation with few investigations performed directly in humans. Recently, in mice, the genes Atrogin-1 and MuRF1 have been designated as primary candidates in the control of muscle atrophy. Additionally, the decreased activity of the Akt/GSK-3ß and Akt/mTOR pathways has been associated with a reduction in protein synthesis and contributing to skeletal muscle atrophy. Therefore, it is now commonly accepted that skeletal muscle atrophy is the result of a decreased protein synthesis concomitant with an increase in protein degradation (Glass 2003). Atrogin-1 and MuRF1 are genes expressed exclusively in muscle. In mice, their expression has been shown to be directly correlated with the severity of atrophy. KO-mice experiments showed a major protection against atrophy when either of these genes were deleted. Skeletal muscle hypertrophy is an important function in normal postnatal development and in the adaptive response to exercise. It has been shown, in vitro, that the activation of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI-3K), by insulin growth factor 1 (IGF-1), stimulates myotubes hypertrophy by activating the downstream pathways, Akt/GSK-3ß and Akt/mTOR. It has also been demonstrated in mice, in vivo, that activation of these signalling pathways causes muscle hypertrophy. Moreover, the latter were recently proposed to also reduce muscle atrophy by inhibiting the FKHR mediated transcription of several muscle atrophy genes; Atrogin-1 and MuRF1. Therefore, these targets present new avenues for developing further the understanding of the molecular mechanisms involved in both skeletal muscle atrophy and hypertrophy. The present study proposed to investigate the regulation of the Akt/GSK-3ß and Akt/mTOR signalling pathways, as well as the expression levels of the "atrogenes", Atrogin-1 and MuRF1, in four human models of skeletal muscle atrophy. In the first study, we measured the regulation of the Akt signalling pathway after 8 weeks of both hypertrophy stimulating resistance training and atrophy stimulation de-training. As expected following resistance training, muscle hypertrophy and an increase in the phosphorylation status of the different members of the Akt pathway was observed. This was paralleled by a concomitant decrease in FOXO1 nuclear protein content. Surprisingly, exercise training also induced an increase in the, expression of the atrophy genes and proteins involved in the ATP-dependant ubiquitin-proteasome system. On the opposite, following the de-training period a muscle atrophy, relative to the post-training muscle size, was measured. At the same time, the phosphorylation levels of Akt and GSK-3ß were reduced while the amount of FOXO1 in the nucleus increased. After the atrophy phase, there was also a reduction in Atrogin-1 and MuRF1 contents. In this study, we demonstrate for the first time in healthy human skeletal muscle, that the regulation of Akt and its downstream targets GSK-3ß, mTOR and FOXO1 are associated with both thé skeletal muscle hypertrophy and atrophy processes. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease characterized by the loss of both upper and lower motor neurons, which leads to severe muscle weakness and atrophy. All measurements were performed in biopsies from 22 ALS patients and 16 healthy controls. ALS patients displayed an increase in Atrogin-1 mRNA and protein content which was associated with a decrease in Akt activity. However there was no difference in the mRNA and phospho-protein content of FOXO1, FOXO3a, p70S6K and GSK-3ß. The transcriptional regulation of human Atrogin-1 may be controlled by an Akt-mediated transcription factor other than FKHR or via an other signalling pathway. Chronic complete spinal cord injury (SCI) is associated with severe muscle atrophy which is linked to co-morbidity factors such as diabetes, obesity, lipid disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Molecular mechanisms associated with chronic complete SCI-related muscle atrophy are not well understood. The aim of the present study was to determine if there was an increase in catabolic signalling targets such as Atrogin-1, MuRF1, FOXO and myostatin, and decreases in anabolic signalling targets such as IGF, Akt, GSK-3ß, mTOR, 4E-BP1 and p-70S6K in chronic complete SCI patients. All measurements were performed in biopsies taken from 8 complete chronic SCI patients and 7 age matched healthy controls. In SCI patients when compared with controls, there was a significant reduction in mRNA levels of Atrogin1, MuRF1 and Myostatin. Protein levels for Atrogin-1, FOX01 and FOX03a were also reduced. IGF-1 and both phosphorylated GSK-3ß and 4E-BP1 were decreased; the latter two in an Akt and mTOR independent manner, respectively. Reductions in Atrogin-1, MuRF1, FOXO and myostatin suggest the existence of an internal mechanism aimed at reducing further loss of muscle proteins during chronic SCI. The downregulation of signalling proteins regulating anabolism such as IGF, GSK3ß and 4E-BP1 would reduce the ability to increase protein synthesis rates in this chronic state of muscle wasting. The molecular mechanisms controlling age-related skeletal muscle loss in humans are poorly understood. The present study aimed to investigate the regulation of several genes and proteins involved in the activation of key signalling pathways promoting muscle hypertrophy such as GH/STAT5/IGF, IGF/Akt/GSK-3ß/4E-BP1 and muscle atrophy such as TNFα/SOCS3 and Akt/FOXO/Atrogin-1 or MuRF1 in muscle biopsies from 13 young and 16 elderly men. In the older, as compared with the young subjects, TNFα and SOCS-3 were increased while growth hormone receptor protein (GHR) and IGF-1 mRNA were both decreased. Akt protein levels were increased however no change in phosphorylated Akt content was observed. GSK-3ß phosphorylation levels were increased while 4E-BP1 was not changed. Nuclear FKHR and FKHRL1 protein levels were decreased, with no changes in their atrophy target genes, Atrogin-1 and MuRF1. Myostatin mRNA and protein levels were significantly elevated. Human sarcopenia may be linked to a reduction in the activity or sensitivity of anabolic signalling proteins such as GHR, IGF and Akt. TNFα, SOCS-3 and myostatin are potential candidates influencing this anabolic perturbation. In conclusion our results support those obtained in rodent or ín vitro models, and demonstrate Akt plays a pivotal role in the control of muscle mass in humans. However, the Akt phosphorylation status was dependant upon the model of muscle atrophy as Akt phosphorylation was reduced in all atrophy models except for SCI. Additionally, the activity pattern of the downstream targets of Akt appears to be different upon the various human models. It seems that under particular conditions such as spinal cord injury or sarcopenia, .the regulation of GSK-3ß, 4eBP1 and p70S6K might be independent of Akt suggesting alternative signalling pathways in the control of these the anabolic response in human skeletal muscle. The regulation of Atrogin-1 and MuRF1 in some of our studies has been shown to be also independent of the well-described Akt/FOXO signalling pathway suggesting that other transcription factors may regulate human Atrogin-1 and MuRF1. These four different models of skeletal muscle atrophy and hypertrophy have brought a better understanding concerning the molecular mechanisms controlling skeletal muscle mass in humans.

Limb-girdle Muscular Dystrophy Type 2A Can Result from Accelerated Autoproteolytic Inactivation of Calpain 3.

Loss-of-function mutations in calpain 3 have been shown to cause limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2A (LGMD2A), an autosomal recessive disorder that results in gradual wasting of the muscles of the hip and shoulder areas. Due to the inherent instability of calpain 3, recombinant expression of the full-length enzyme has not been possible, making in vitro analysis of specific LGMD2A-causing mutations difficult. However, because calpain 3 is highly similar in amino acid sequence to calpain 2, the recently solved crystal structure of full-length, Ca2+-bound, calpastatin-inhibited rat calpain 2 has allowed us to model calpain 3 as a Ca2+-bound homodimer. The model revealed three distinct areas of the enzyme that undergo a large conformational change upon Ca2+-binding. Located in these areas are several residues that undergo mutation to cause LGMD2A. We investigated the in vitro effects of six of these mutations by making the corresponding mutations in rat calpain 2. All six mutations examined in this study resulted in a decrease in enzyme activity. All but one of the mutations caused an increased rate of autoproteolytic degradation of the enzyme as witnessed by SDS-PAGE, indicating the decrease in enzyme activity is caused, at least in part, by an increase in the rate of autoproteolytic degradation. The putative in vivo effects of these mutations on calpain 3 activity are discussed with respect to their ability to cause LGMD2A.

Biometal muscle to restore atrial transport function in a permanent atrial fibrillation animal model: a potential tool in the treatment of end-stage heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Half of the patients with end-stage heart failure suffer from persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Atrial kick (AK) accounts for 10-15% of the ejection fraction. A device restoring AK should significantly improve cardiac output (CO) and possibly delay ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. This study has been designed to assess the mechanical effects of a motorless pump on the right chambers of the heart in an animal model. METHODS: Atripump is a dome-shaped biometal actuator electrically driven by a pacemaker-like control unit. In eight sheep, the device was sutured onto the right atrium (RA). AF was simulated with rapid atrial pacing. RA ejection fraction (EF) was assessed with intracardiac ultrasound (ICUS) in baseline, AF and assisted-AF status. In two animals, the pump was left in place for 4 weeks and then explanted. Histology examination was carried out. The mean values for single measurement per animal with +/-SD were analysed. RESULTS: The contraction rate of the device was 60 per min. RA EF was 41% in baseline, 7% in AF and 21% in assisted-AF conditions. CO was 7+/-0.5 l min(-1) in baseline, 6.2+/-0.5 l min(-1) in AF and 6.7+/-0.5 l min(-1) in assisted-AF status (p<0.01). Histology of the atrium in the chronic group showed chronic tissue inflammation and no sign of tissue necrosis. CONCLUSIONS: The artificial muscle restores the AK and improves CO. In patients with end-stage cardiac failure and permanent AF, if implanted on both sides, it would improve CO and possibly delay or even avoid complex surgical treatment such as VAD implantation.