An initial assessment of policies for saving a rare Australian glider: Experimental results, economics and ecology

Reviews the ecological status of the mahogany glider and describes its distribution, habitat and abundance, life history and threats to it. Three serial surveys of Brisbane residents provide data on the knowledge of respondents about the mahogany glider. The results provide information about the attitudes of respondents to the mahogany glider, to its conservation and relevant public policies and about variations in these factors as the knowledge of participants of the mahogany glider alters. Similarly data is provided and analysed about the willingness to pay of respondents to conserve the mahogany glider. Population viability analysis is applied to estimate the required habitat area for a minimum viable population of the mahogany glider to ensure at least a 95% probability of its survival for 100 years. Places are identified in Queensland where the requisite minimum area of critical habitat can be conserved. Using the survey results as a basis, the likely willingness of groups of Australians to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider is estimated and consequently their willingness to pay for the minimum required area of its habitat. Methods for estimating the cost of protecting this habitat are outlined. Australia-wide benefits seem to exceed the costs. Establishing a national park containing the minimum viable population of the mahogany glider is an appealing management option. This would also be beneficial in conserving other endangered wildlife species. Therefore, additional economic benefits to those estimated on account of the mahogany glider itself can be obtained.

Polytomous item response theory models

Polytomous Item Response Theory Models provides a unified, comprehensive introduction to the range of polytomous models available within item response theory (IRT). It begins by outlining the primary structural distinction between the two major types of polytomous IRT models. This focuses on the two types of response probability that are unique to polytomous models and their associated response functions, which are modeled differently by the different types of IRT model. It describes, both conceptually and mathematically, the major specific polytomous models, including the Nominal Response Model, the Partial Credit Model, the Rating Scale model, and the Graded Response Model. Important variations, such as the Generalized Partial Credit Model are also described as are less common variations, such as the Rating Scale version of the Graded Response Model. Relationships among the models are also investigated and the operation of measurement information is described for each major model. Practical examples of major models using real data are provided, as is a chapter on choosing an appropriate model. Figures are used throughout to illustrate important elements as they are described.

Critical sets for families of Latin squares

In this paper I give details of new constructions for critical sets in latin squares. These latin squares, of order n, are such that they can be partitioned into four subsquares each of which is based on the addition table of the integers module n/2, an isotopism of this or a conjugate.

Prediction of MHC class II-binding peptides using an evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network

Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

Probability backflow for a Dirac particle

The phenomenon of probability backflow, previously quantified for a free nonrelativistic particle, is considered for a free particle obeying Dirac's equation. It is known that probability backflow can occur in the opposite direction to the momentum; that is to say, there exist positive-energy states in which the particle certainly has a positive momentum in a given direction, but for which the component of the probability flux vector in that direction is negative. It is shown thar the maximum possible amount of probability that can flow backwards, over a given time interval of duration T, depends on the dimensionless parameter epsilon = root 4h/mc(2)T, where m is the mass of the particle and c is the speed of light. At epsilon = 0, the nonrelativistic value of approximately 0.039 for this maximum is recovered. Numerical studies suggest that the maximum decreases monotonically as epsilon increases from 0, and show that it depends on the size of m, h, and T, unlike the nonrelativistic case.

Perceptual quality metrics applied to still image compression

We present a review of perceptual image quality metrics and their application to still image compression. The review describes how image quality metrics can be used to guide an image compression scheme and outlines the advantages, disadvantages and limitations of a number of quality metrics. We examine a broad range of metrics ranging from simple mathematical measures to those which incorporate full perceptual models. We highlight some variation in the models for luminance adaptation and the contrast sensitivity function and discuss what appears to be a lack of a general consensus regarding the models which best describe contrast masking and error summation. We identify how the various perceptual components have been incorporated in quality metrics, and identify a number of psychophysical testing techniques that can be used to validate the metrics. We conclude by illustrating some of the issues discussed throughout the paper with a simple demonstration. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

5-cycle systems of K-v-F with a hole

Recently the problem of the existence of a 5-cycle system of K-v with a hole of size u was completely solved. In this paper we prove necessary and sufficient conditions on v and u for the existence of a 5-cycle system of K-v - F, with a hole of size u.

The velocity of probability transport in quantum mechanics

In his study of the 'time of arrival' problem in the nonrelativistic quantum mechanics of a single particle, Allcock [1] noted that the direction of the probability flux vector is not necessarily the same as that of the mean momentum of a wave packet, even when the packet is composed entirely of plane waves with a common direction of momentum. Packets can be constructed, for example for a particle moving under a constant force, in which probability flows for a finite time in the opposite direction to the momentum. A similar phenomenon occurs for the Dirac electron. The maximum amount of probabilitiy backflow which can occur over a given time interval can be calculated in each case.

A numerical study of large sparse matrix exponentials arising in Markov chains

Krylov subspace techniques have been shown to yield robust methods for the numerical computation of large sparse matrix exponentials and especially the transient solutions of Markov Chains. The attractiveness of these methods results from the fact that they allow us to compute the action of a matrix exponential operator on an operand vector without having to compute, explicitly, the matrix exponential in isolation. In this paper we compare a Krylov-based method with some of the current approaches used for computing transient solutions of Markov chains. After a brief synthesis of the features of the methods used, wide-ranging numerical comparisons are performed on a power challenge array supercomputer on three different models. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.AMS Classification: 65F99; 65L05; 65U05.

Sausage: protein threading with flexible force fields

Sausage is a protein sequence threading program, but with remarkable run-time flexibility. Using different scripts, it can calculate protein sequence-structure alignments, search structure libraries, swap force fields, create models form alignments, convert file formats and analyse results. There are several different force fields which might be classed as knowledge-based, although they do not rely on Boltzmann statistics. Different force fields are used for alignment calculations and subsequent ranking of calculated models.

Further results on the relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions for absorbing continuous-time Markov chains

This note considers continuous-time Markov chains whose state space consists of an irreducible class, C, and an absorbing state which is accessible from C. The purpose is to provide results on mu-invariant and mu-subinvariant measures where absorption occurs with probability less than one. In particular, the well-known premise that the mu-invariant measure, m, for the transition rates be finite is replaced by the more natural premise that m be finite with respect to the absorption probabilities. The relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions is discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Review of "Comorbidity, disability and the need for treatment for DSM-IV psychiatric disorders in an insured population"

Background: This study presents estimates of 12 month and current prevalences of DSM-IV disorders, and the related comor-bidity, disability and service utilization, derived from a national probability sample in Australia. Methods: The DSM-IV psychiatric disorders among persons aged 18 and over in the Australian population were assessed with data collected by lay interviewers using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, other screening interviews and measures of disability and service utilization. The response rate was 78.1% and the final sample size was 10,641 adults. Results: Close to 20% reported at least one twelve month disorder and 13% a disorder current within the past 30 days. ICD-10 diagnoses were also derived, DSM-IV was the more conservative classification whether or not the new clinical significance criteria was applied. Major depression, any personality disorder, and alcohol dependence were the three most common twelve month disorders, generalized anxiety disorder replaced alcohol dependence as the third most common current disorder. The sexes has similar rates of any disorder, but women had higher rates of affective and anxiety disorders, men higher rates of substance use disorders. Prevalence of most disorders declined with age and education, and were lower among those employed or married. Respondents whose symptoms met criteria for three or more disorders in the past year had greatly increased rates of disability and of mental health consultations. The affective and somatoform disorders were associated with the highest rates of disability. Only 36% of people with a mental disorder this year had consulted for a mental problem, and most had seen a general practitioner. We identified those with a current disorder who were disabled or multiply comorbid - only half had consulted and of those who had not, more than half said they did not need treatment. Conclusions: The 12 month prevalence was lower than reported in the US National Comorbidity Survey but method factors might account for this. The relationships between prevalence and demographic variables, and between comorbidity, disability and service utilization were similar to those found in the US survey. Australia has a national health insurance scheme with total coverage and access to medical help is available to all, commonly at little or no cost. We identify the high rate of not consulting among those with a current disorder, and additional disability or multiple comorbidity, as an important public health problem. Kessler argued for more research on barriers to professional help seeking. This report reinforces his conclusion and shows that economic barriers are not the dominant issue.