Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

Optimal hydrothermal load flow: Formulation and a successive approximation solution for fixed head systems

This paper deals with the optimal load flow problem in a fixed-head hydrothermal electric power system. Equality constraints on the volume of water available for active power generation at the hydro plants as well as inequality constraints on the reactive power generation at the voltage controlled buses are imposed. Conditions for optimal load flow are derived and a successive approximation algorithm for solving the optimal generation schedule is developed. Computer implementation of the algorithm is discussed, and the results obtained from the computer solution of test systems are presented.

Cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade under moving train wheel load

Cyclic plastic deformation of subgrade and other engineered layers is generally not taken into account in the design of railway bridge transition zones, although the plastic deformation is the governing factor of frequent track deterioration. Actual stress behavior of fine grained subgrade/embankment layers under train traffic is, however, difficult to replicate using the conventional laboratory test apparatus and techniques. A new type of torsional simple shear apparatus, known as multi-ring shear apparatus, was therefore developed to evaluate the actual stress state and the corresponding cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade materials under moving wheel load conditions. Multi-ring shear test results has been validated using a theoretical model test results; the capability of the multi-ring shear apparatus for replicating the cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade under moving train wheel load conditions is thus established. This paper describes the effects of principal stress rotation (PSR) of the subgrade materials to the cyclic plastic deformation in a railroad and impacts of testing methods in evaluating the influence of principal stress rotation to the track deterioration of rail track.

Lower-bound collapse load Of square footing

Based on a radial moment field and the square yield criterion, a lower-bound collapse load is developed for a square footing subjected to a generalized contact pressure distribution. The current lower-bound collapse load compares well with the available upper-bound solutions.

Assessment of transit quality of service with occupancy load factor and passenger travel time measures

This paper investigates quality of service (QoS) and resource productivity implications of transit route passenger loading and travel time. It highlights the value of occupancy load factor as a direct passenger comfort QoS measure. Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia, is used to investigate time series correlation between occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time. Correlation is strong across the entire span of service in both directions. Passengers tend to be making longer, peak direction commuter trips under significantly less comfortable conditions than off-peak. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual uses segment based load factor as a measure of onboard loading comfort QoS. This paper provides additional insight into QoS by relating the two route based dimensions of occupancy load factor and passenger average travel time together in a two dimensional format, both from the passenger’s and operator’s perspectives. Future research will apply Value of Time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent onboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling. The methodology can be readily applied in a practical setting where AFC data for fixed scheduled routes is available. The study outcomes also provide valuable research and development directions.

Transversely isotropic infinite cylindrical shell subjected to a radial axisymmetric line load

The problem of an infinite transversely isotropic circular cylindrical shell subjected to an axisymmetric radial external line load is investigated using elasticity theory, classical shell theory and shear deformation theory. The results obtained by these methods are compared for two ratios of inner to outer shell radius and for varying degrees of anisotropy. Some typical results are given here to show the effect of anisotropy and the thickness of the shell on the distribution of stresses and displacements.

Multilevel load frequency control (a perturbational approach)

A two-level control scheme for the load frequency control of a multi-area power system utilizing certain possible beneficial aspects of interconnections is described in this paper. The problem is identified as the determination of the necessary equivalent perturbation on the control distribution matrix to provide the corrective control.

Elasticity solution for a long circular sandwich cylindrical shell subjected to axisymmetric load

An elasticity solution has been obtained for a long circular sandwich cylindrical shell subjected to axisymmetric radial ring load using Love's stress function approach. Numerical results are presented for different ratios of modulus of elasticity of the layers. The results obtained from this analysis have been compared with those obtained from sandwich shell theory due to Fulton.

Load Transfer from a Smooth Elastic Pin to a Large Sheet

The plane problem of load transfer from an elastic interference or clearance fit pin to a large elastic sheet with a perfectly smooth interface is solved. As the load on the pin is monotonically increased, the pin-hole interface is in partial contact above certain critical load in interference fit and throughout the loading range in clearance fit.Such situations result in mixed boundary-value problems with moving boundaries and the arc of contact varies nonlinearly with applied load. These problems are analyzed by an inverse technique in which the arcs of contact/separation are prescribed and the causative loads are evaluated. A direct method of analysis is adopted using biharmonic polar trigonometric stress functions and a simple collocation method for satisfying the boundary conditions. A unified analytical formulation is achieved for interference and clearance fits. The solutions for the linear problem of push fits are inherent in the unified analysis. Numerical results highlighting the effects of pin and sheet elasticity parameters are presented.

Can the direct measurement of the load applied on the residuum of individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with bone-anchored prosthesis help to improve the rehabilitation program?

To strive to improve the rehabilitation program of individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with bone-anchored prosthesis based on data from direct measurements of the load applied on the residuum we first of all need to understand the load applied on the fixation. Therefore the load applied on the residuum was first directly measured during standardized activities of daily living such as straight line level walking, ascending and descending stairs and a ramp and walking around a circle. From measuring the load in standardized activities of daily living the load was also measured during different phases of the rehabilitation program such as during walking with walking aids and during load bearing exercises.[1-15] The rehabilitation program for individuals with a transfemoral amputation fitted with an OPRA implant relies on a combination of dynamic and static load bearing exercises.[16-20] This presentation will focus on the study of a set of experimental static load bearing exercises. [1] A group of eleven individuals with unilateral transfemoral amputation fitted with an OPRA implant participated in this study. The load on the implant during the static load bearing exercises was measured using a portable system including a commercial transducer embedded in a short pylon, a laptop and a customized software package. This apparatus was previously shown effective in a proof-of-concept study published by Prof. Frossard. [1-9] The analysis of the static load bearing exercises included an analysis of the reliability as well as the loading compliance. The analysis of the loading reliability showed a high reliability between the loading sessions indicating a correct repetition of the LBE by the participants. [1, 5] The analysis of the loading compliance showed a significant lack of axial compliance leading to a systematic underloading of the long axis of the implant during the proposed experimental static LBE.

Probabilistic load flow for distribution systems with uncertain PV generation

Large integration of solar Photo Voltaic (PV) in distribution network has resulted in over-voltage problems. Several control techniques are developed to address over-voltage problem using Deterministic Load Flow (DLF). However, intermittent characteristics of PV generation require Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF) to introduce variability in analysis that is ignored in DLF. The traditional PLF techniques are not suitable for distribution systems and suffer from several drawbacks such as computational burden (Monte Carlo, Conventional convolution), sensitive accuracy with the complexity of system (point estimation method), requirement of necessary linearization (multi-linear simulation) and convergence problem (Gram–Charlier expansion, Cornish Fisher expansion). In this research, Latin Hypercube Sampling with Cholesky Decomposition (LHS-CD) is used to quantify the over-voltage issues with and without the voltage control algorithm in the distribution network with active generation. LHS technique is verified with a test network and real system from an Australian distribution network service provider. Accuracy and computational burden of simulated results are also compared with Monte Carlo simulations.

PMU measurement based dynamic load modeling using SVC devices in online environment

Online dynamic load modeling has become possible with the availability of Static Voltage Compensator (SVC) and Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) devices. The power of the load response to the small random bounded voltage fluctuations caused from SVC can be measured by PMU for modelling purposes. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the capability of identifying an aggregated load model from high voltage substation level in the online environment. The induction motor is used as the main test subject since it contributes the majority of the dynamic loads. A test system representing simple electromechanical generator model serving dynamic loads through the transmission network is used to verify the proposed method. Also, dynamic load with multiple induction motors are modeled to achieve a better realistic load representation.

Critical Evaluation of Determining Swelling Pressure by Swell-Load Method and Constant Volume Method

For any construction activity in expansive soils, determination of swelling pressure/heave is an essential step. Though many attempts have been made to develop laboratory procedures by using the laboratory one-dimensional oedometer to determine swelling pressure of expansive soils, they are reported to yield varying results. The main reason for these variations could be heterogeneous moisture distribution of the sample over its thickness. To overcome this variation the experimental procedure should be such that the soil gets fully saturated. Attempts were made to introduce vertical sand drains in addition to the top and bottom drains. In this study five and nine vertical sand drains were introduced to experimentally find out the variations in the swell and swelling pressure. The variations in the moisture content at middle, top, and bottom of the sample in the oedometer test are also reported. It is found that swell-load method is better as compared to zero-swell method. Further, five number of vertical sand drains are found to be sufficient to obtain uniform moisture content distribution.

Analysis of an orthotropic cylindrical shell having a transversely isotropic core subjected to axisymmetric load

A long two-layered circular cylinder having a thin orthotropic outer shell and a thick transversely isotropic core subjected to an axisymmetric radialv line load has been analysed. For analysis of the outer shell the classical thin shell theory was adopted and for analysis of the inner core the elasticity theory was used. The continuity of stresses and deformations at the interface has been satisfied by assumming perfect adhesion between the layers. Numerical results have been presented for two different ratios of outer shell thickness to inner radius and for three different ratios of modulus of elasticity in the radial direction of outer shell to inner core. The results have been compared with the elasticity solution of the same problem to bring out the reliability of this hybrid method. References

Some aspects of multilevel load-frequency control of a power system

The application of multilevel control strategies for load-frequency control of interconnected power systems is assuming importance. A large multiarea power system may be viewed as an interconnection of several lower-order subsystems, with possible change of interconnection pattern during operation. The solution of the control problem involves the design of a set of local optimal controllers for the individual areas, in a completely decentralised environment, plus a global controller to provide the corrective signal to account for interconnection effects. A global controller, based on the least-square-error principle suggested by Siljak and Sundareshan, has been applied for the LFC problem. A more recent work utilises certain possible beneficial aspects of interconnection to permit more desirable system performances. The paper reports the application of the latter strategy to LFC of a two-area power system. The power-system model studied includes the effects of excitation system and governor controls. A comparison of the two strategies is also made.