Flexibility in Airline Business Models with Core Competence as an Indicator.

The airline industry is often unstable and unpredictable forcing airlines to restructure and create flexible strategies that can respond to external operating environmental changes. In turbulent and competitive environments, firms with higher flexibility perform better and the value of these flexibilities depends on factors of uncertainty in the competitive environment. A model is sought for and arrived at, that shows how an airline business model will function in an uncertain environment with the least reduction in business performance over time. An analysis of the business model flexibility of 17 Airlines from Asia, Europe and Oceania, that is done with core competence as the indicator reveals a picture of inconsistencies in the core competence strategy of certain airlines and the corresponding reduction in business performance. The performance variations are explained from a service oriented core competence strategy employed by airlines that ultimately enables them in having a flexible business model that not only increases business performance but also helps in reducing the uncertainties in the internal and external operating environments.

Detecting Traffic Problems with ILP

Expert systems for decision support have recently been successfully introduced in road transport management. In this paper, we apply three state-of-the art ILP systems to learn how to detect traffic problems.

Nueva terminal de pasajeros para el aeropuerto Federico García Lorca, Granada - Jaén

El presente proyecto de construcción define las actuaciones para la ejecución de la Nueva Terminal de pasajeros para el aeropuerto Federico García Lorca, Granada – Jaén, situado entre los términos municipales de Chauchina y Santa Fe, en la provincia de Granada. Estudios realizados por AENA, en colaboración con el Ministerio de Fomento, dejan constancia de los déficits en cuanto a capacidad de las instalaciones del aeropuerto se refiere, en múltiples facetas. En el caso de la terminal de pasajeros, sus principales elementos de servicio han sido sometidos a estudio, revelando claras faltas en numerosos puntos. El más relevante son las carencias en cuanto a capacidad, respecto a la demanda existente, y especialmente la demanda prevista para un cierto horizonte de estudio. Además, las nuevas normativas de aplicación en aeropuertos internacionales publicadas por la International Air Transport Association (IATA) entran en conflicto con ciertos parámetros de diseño de las instalaciones actuales. Se requiere una remodelación del conjunto para adaptarse a estas exigencias de validez internacional.

Conformance monitoring, contract of objectives, tube in the sky

Ponencia invitada sobre asignacion y gestion de losts en el curso de verano de la UPM Research in Decisión Support Systems for future Air Traffic Management

Complexity in the Optimisation of ATM Performance Metrics

Today's motivation for autonomous systems research stems out of the fact that networked environments have reached a level of complexity and heterogeneity that make their control and management by solely human administrators more and more difficult. The optimisation of performance metrics for the air traffic management system, like in other networked system, has become more complex with increasing number of flights, capacity constraints, environmental factors and safety regulations. It is anticipated that a new structure of planning layers and the introduction of higher levels of automation will reduce complexity and will optimise the performance metrics of the air traffic management system. This paper discusses the complexity of optimising air traffic management performance metrics and proposes a way forward based on higher levels of automation.

Does high speed rail compete fairly with other transportation modes? Madrid-Barcelona case study

Transportation modes produce many external costs such as congestion, accidents, and environmental impacts (pollution, noise and so on). From the microeconomic theory it is well known that in order to maximize social welfare, transportation modes should internalize the marginal costs they produce. Allocative efficiency is achieved when all transportation modes are priced at their social marginal cost. The objective of this research is to evaluate to what extent different passenger transport modes internalize their social marginal costs. This analysis is important since it affects the competitiveness of the different transport modes for a given OD pair. The case study analyzed is the corridor Madrid-Barcelona in Spain and the different transport modes have been considered (cars, buses, high-speed train and air). The research calculates the marginal social cost per user for each transportation mode, and it compares it with the average fare—allowing for the effect of discriminatory taxes—currently paid by the users. The external costs are calculated according to the guidelines established by the European Union. The gap between the marginal social cost and the price paid by users will provide the extra cost per passenger that each transport mode should have to pay for internalizing the external cost it produces. The research shows that external costs already produced by road and air transport modes are much higher than those produced by rail. However, the results show that road transport already internalizes every external costs it produces because users pay high fuel taxes. In other words, although rail transportation produces lower external costs, road transportation pays more than it should on the basis of the social marginal costs. The results of this work might be of help for Europ ean policy actions to be undertaken in the future.

Controlled time of arrival feasibility analysis

Previous research studies and operational trials have shown that using the airborne Required Time of Arrival (RTA) function, an aircraft can individually achieve an assigned time to a metering or merge point accurately. This study goes a step further and investigates the application of RTA to a real sequence of arriving aircraft into Melbourne Australia. Assuming that the actual arrival times were Controlled Time of Arrivals (CTAs) assigned to each aircraft, the study examines if the airborne RTA solution would work. Three scenarios were compared: a baseline scenario being the actual flown trajectories in a two hour time-span into Melbourne, a scenario in which the sequential landing slot times of the baseline scenario were assigned as CTAs and a third scenario in which the landing slots could be freely redistributed to the inbound traffic as CTAs. The research found that pressure on the terminal area would sometimes require aircraft to lose more time than possible through the RTA capability. Using linear holding as an additional measure to absorb extensive delays, up to 500NM (5%) of total track reduction and 1300kg (3%) of total fuel consumption could be saved in the scenario with landing slots freely distributed as CTAs, compared to the baseline scenario. Assigning CTAs in an arrival sequence requires the ground system to have an accurate trajectory predictor to propose additional delay measures (path stretching, linear holding) if necessary. Reducing the achievable time window of the aircraft to add control margin to the RTA function, had a negative impact and increased the amount of intervention other than speed control required to solve the sequence. It was concluded that the RTA capability is not a complete solution but merely a tool to assist in managing the increasing complexity of air traffic.

Regression analysis of top of descent location for idle-thrust descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. In addition to recording TOD, the cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also identified for use as the independent variables in the regression analysis. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajectory parame- ters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowledge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace.

Software tool for simulation of aircraft trajectories

New concepts in air navigation have been introduced recently. Among others, are the concepts of trajectory optimization, 4D trajectories, RBT (Reference Business Trajectory), TBO (trajectory based operations), CDA (Continuous Descent Approach) and ACDA (Advanced CDA), conflict resolution, arrival time (AMAN), introduction of new aircraft (UAVs, UASs) in air space, etc. Although some of these concepts are new, the future Air Traffic Management will maintain the four ATM key performance areas such as Safety, Capacity, Efficiency, and Environmental impact. So much, the performance of the ATM system is directly related to the accuracy with which the future evolution of the traffic can be predicted. In this sense, future air traffic management will require a variety of support tools to provide suitable help to users and engineers involved in the air space management. Most of these tools are based on an appropriate trajectory prediction module as main component. Therefore, the purposes of these tools are related with testing and evaluation of any air navigation concept before they become fully operative. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview to the design of a software tool useful to estimate aircraft trajectories adapted to air navigation concepts. Other usage of the tool, like controller design, vertical navigation assessment, procedures validation and hardware and software in the loop are available in the software tool. The paper will show the process followed to design the tool, the software modules needed to perform accurately and the process followed to validate the output data.

Real-time determination of airspace wind speed field based on FDR = Determinación en tiempo real del campo de velocidad del viento basado en registradores de datos de vuelo

El estudio del comportamiento de la atmósfera ha resultado de especial importancia tanto en el programa SESAR como en NextGen, en los que la gestión actual del tránsito aéreo (ATM) está experimentando una profunda transformación hacia nuevos paradigmas tanto en Europa como en los EE.UU., respectivamente, para el guiado y seguimiento de las aeronaves en la realización de rutas más eficientes y con mayor precisión. La incertidumbre es una característica fundamental de los fenómenos meteorológicos que se transfiere a la separación de las aeronaves, las trayectorias de vuelo libres de conflictos y a la planificación de vuelos. En este sentido, el viento es un factor clave en cuanto a la predicción de la futura posición de la aeronave, por lo que tener un conocimiento más profundo y preciso de campo de viento reducirá las incertidumbres del ATC. El objetivo de esta tesis es el desarrollo de una nueva técnica operativa y útil destinada a proporcionar de forma adecuada y directa el campo de viento atmosférico en tiempo real, basada en datos de a bordo de la aeronave, con el fin de mejorar la predicción de las trayectorias de las aeronaves. Para lograr este objetivo se ha realizado el siguiente trabajo. Se han descrito y analizado los diferentes sistemas de la aeronave que proporcionan las variables necesarias para obtener la velocidad del viento, así como de las capacidades que permiten la presentación de esta información para sus aplicaciones en la gestión del tráfico aéreo. Se ha explorado el uso de aeronaves como los sensores de viento en un área terminal para la estimación del viento en tiempo real con el fin de mejorar la predicción de las trayectorias de aeronaves. Se han desarrollado métodos computacionalmente eficientes para estimar las componentes horizontales de la velocidad del viento a partir de las velocidades de las aeronaves (VGS, VCAS/VTAS), la presión y datos de temperatura. Estos datos de viento se han utilizado para estimar el campo de viento en tiempo real utilizando un sistema de procesamiento de datos a través de un método de mínima varianza. Por último, se ha evaluado la exactitud de este procedimiento para que esta información sea útil para el control del tráfico aéreo. La información inicial proviene de una muestra de datos de Registradores de Datos de Vuelo (FDR) de aviones que aterrizaron en el aeropuerto Madrid-Barajas. Se dispuso de datos de ciertas aeronaves durante un periodo de más de tres meses que se emplearon para calcular el vector viento en cada punto del espacio aéreo. Se utilizó un modelo matemático basado en diferentes métodos de interpolación para obtener los vectores de viento en áreas sin datos disponibles. Se han utilizado tres escenarios concretos para validar dos métodos de interpolación: uno de dos dimensiones que trabaja con ambas componentes horizontales de forma independiente, y otro basado en el uso de una variable compleja que relaciona ambas componentes. Esos métodos se han probado en diferentes escenarios con resultados dispares. Esta metodología se ha aplicado en un prototipo de herramienta en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente los datos de FDR y determinar el campo vectorial del viento que encuentra la aeronave al volar en el espacio aéreo en estudio. Finalmente se han obtenido las condiciones requeridas y la precisión de los resultados para este modelo. El método desarrollado podría utilizar los datos de los aviones comerciales como inputs utilizando los datos actualmente disponibles y la capacidad computacional, para proporcionárselos a los sistemas ATM donde se podría ejecutar el método propuesto. Estas velocidades del viento calculadas, o bien la velocidad respecto al suelo y la velocidad verdadera, se podrían difundir, por ejemplo, a través del sistema de direccionamiento e informe para comunicaciones de aeronaves (ACARS), mensajes de ADS-B o Modo S. Esta nueva fuente ayudaría a actualizar la información del viento suministrada en los productos aeronáuticos meteorológicos (PAM), informes meteorológicos de aeródromos (AIRMET), e información meteorológica significativa (SIGMET). ABSTRACT The study of the atmosphere behaviour is been of particular importance both in SESAR and NextGen programs, where the current air traffic management (ATM) system is undergoing a profound transformation to the new paradigms both in Europe and the USA, respectively, to guide and track aircraft more precisely on more efficient routes. Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather phenomena which is transferred to separation assurance, flight path de-confliction and flight planning applications. In this respect, the wind is a key factor regarding the prediction of the future position of the aircraft, so that having a deeper and accurate knowledge of wind field will reduce ATC uncertainties. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a new and operationally useful technique intended to provide adequate and direct real-time atmospheric winds fields based on on-board aircraft data, in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction. In order to achieve this objective the following work has been accomplished. The different sources in the aircraft systems that provide the variables needed to derivate the wind velocity have been described and analysed, as well as the capabilities which allow presenting this information for air traffic management applications. The use of aircraft as wind sensors in a terminal area for real-time wind estimation in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction has been explored. Computationally efficient methods have been developed to estimate horizontal wind components from aircraft velocities (VGS, VCAS/VTAS), pressure, and temperature data. These wind data were utilized to estimate a real-time wind field using a data processing approach through a minimum variance method. Finally, the accuracy of this procedure has been evaluated for this information to be useful to air traffic control. The initial information comes from a Flight Data Recorder (FDR) sample of aircraft landing in Madrid-Barajas Airport. Data available for more than three months were exploited in order to derive the wind vector field in each point of the airspace. Mathematical model based on different interpolation methods were used in order to obtain wind vectors in void areas. Three particular scenarios were employed to test two interpolation methods: a two-dimensional one that works with both horizontal components in an independent way, and also a complex variable formulation that links both components. Those methods were tested using various scenarios with dissimilar results. This methodology has been implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyse FDR and determine the wind vector field that aircraft encounter when flying in the studied airspace. Required conditions and accuracy of the results were derived for this model. The method developed could be fed by commercial aircraft utilizing their currently available data sources and computational capabilities, and providing them to ATM system where the proposed method could be run. Computed wind velocities, or ground and true airspeeds, would then be broadcasted, for example, via the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), ADS-B out messages, or Mode S. This new source would help updating the wind information furnished in meteorological aeronautical products (PAM), meteorological aerodrome reports (AIRMET), and significant meteorological information (SIGMET).

Localización y seguimiento de aeronaves mediante sistemas de multilateración de área extensa

El continuo crecimiento de la demanda del transporte aéreo, junto con los nuevos escenarios de intervención militar, están obligando a una optimización en el uso del espacio aéreo. De este modo, la UE y los EEUU (a través de SESAR y NextGen respectivamente) han asentado las bases para una nueva gestión del tráfico aéreo (ATM). Con ello, se pretende aumentar la capacidad de aeropuertos y rutas aéreas, otorgando mayor flexibilidad al uso del espacio aéreo sin comprometer la seguridad de los usuarios. Desde un punto de vista puramente técnico, la clave de este cambio de modelo está en el conocimiento de la posición de cada aeronave en cada instante. En este sentido, la tendencia en ATM es el uso de ADS-B como fuente principal de posicionamiento. Sin embargo, debido a que este sistema está basado en la difusión de la posición obtenida a través de GPS, es necesario un sistema de seguimiento independiente. Actualmente, la intención es migrar del radar secundario de vigilancia (SSR) a la multilateración de área extensa (WAM), con el fin de mejorar la integridad de la posición para aplicaciones en ruta. Aprovechando el rápido despliegue de ADS-B, se pretende reutilizar sus estaciones base para WAM. Cada estación base que recibe el mensaje ADS-B de la aeronave envía conjuntamente la medida del tiempo de llegada (TOA) de dicho mensaje al centro de tráfico aéreo. La posición de la aeronave se obtiene mediante multilateración, cuya técnica consiste en utilizar las medidas de TOA de un mismo mensaje ADS-B obtenidas en las distintas estaciones base. El objetivo es estimar la posición de cada aeronave con la mayor precisión posible. Para poder diseñar el sistema que permite alcanzar este objetivo, son dos los aspectos básicos a estudiar. Por una parte, la identificación y posterior caracterización de los errores (tanto sistemáticos como aleatorios) que afectan a la medida de TOA. Por otra parte, es necesario el estudio de los sistemas de seguimiento, basados en versiones sofisticadas del filtro de Kalman (IMM, UKF). Una vez establecidos estos dos pilares, la presente tesis doctoral propone un sistema que permite efectuar el seguimiento de las aeronaves, corrigiendo los efectos de las principales distorsiones que afectan a la medida de TOA: la refracción troposférica y el error de sincronismo. La mejora en la precisión de la localización ha sido evaluada mediante simulación de escenarios hipotéticos. ABSTRACT The ever-growing demand in the air transportation and the new military intervention scenarios, are generating a need to optimize the use of the airspace. This way, the EU and the USA (through SESAR and NextGen respectively) have set the ground to overhaul the current air traffic management. The intention is to enhance the capacity of airports and air routes, providing greater flexibility in the use of airspace without jeopardizing the security of the end-users. From a technical perspective, the key for this change lies in the knowledge of the aircraft position. The trend in Air Traffic Management (ATM) is to rely on ADS-B as the main source for aircraft positioning. However, this system is based on the aircraft’s self-declaration of its own (often GPS-based) navigation solution. It is therefore necessary to have an independent surveillance system. Nowadays, the intention is to gradually migrate from Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR) towards Wide Area Multilateration (WAM) in order to enhance surveillance integrity for en-route applications. Given the fast deployment of ADS-B, the aim is to use its base stations for WAM. Each station sends the Time of Arrival (TOA) of the received ADS-B messages to the air traffic center (ATC). The aircraft position is obtained through multilateration, using the TOA of the same message measured by each station. The aim is to accurately estimate the position of each aircraft. Knowledge from two key areas has to be gathered prior to designing such a system. It is necessary to identify and then characterize the errors (both systematic and random) affecting the TOA measurements. The second element is the study of tracking systems based on sophisticated versions of the Kalman filtering (e.g. IMM, UKF). Based on this knowledge, the main contribution of this Ph.D. is an aircraft tracking system that corrects the effects of the main errors involved in the TOA measurement: tropospheric refraction and synchronization issues. Performance gains in positioning accuracy have been assessed by simulating hypothetical WAM scenarios.

Desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión en espacios aéreos de área terminal

El transporte aéreo es un sector estratégico para el crecimiento económico de cualquier país. La estabilidad y el desarrollo de este modo de transporte tienen un pilar fundamental en una operación segura, especialmente cuando las previsiones indican escenarios de crecimiento continuo del tráfico aéreo. La estimación del riesgo y, por tanto, del nivel de seguridad de un entorno operativo se ha basado en métodos indirectos como puede ser la cuantificación y análisis de los reportes voluntarios de incidentes o el uso de modelos de riesgo de colisión enfocados a escenarios operativos parciales, como puede ser un espacio aéreo oceánico. La operación en un área terminal de maniobra es compleja, con distintos flujos de tráfico de arribada y salida a uno o varios aeropuertos, con cambios frecuentes en el rumbo y velocidad de las aeronaves y con instrucciones tácticas del control de tráfico aéreo para secuenciar y separar las aeronaves El objetivo de la presente Tesis es complementar los actuales métodos de monitorización de la seguridad que presentan sus limitaciones, con el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión para áreas terminales de alta densidad que se base en datos objetivos como son las trazar radar de las aeronaves y que tenga en cuenta la complejidad de la operación en un área terminal. Para evaluar el modelo desarrollado se ha implementado una herramienta prototipo en MATLAB© que permite procesar un número masivo de trazar radar para un escenario de área terminal y calcular un valor del riesgo de colisión para el escenario analizado. El prototipo ha sido utilizado para estimar la probabilidad de colisión para distintos escenarios del área terminal de Madrid. El uso de trazas radar permite monitorizar el nivel de riesgo de escenarios reales de manera periódica estableciendo niveles de alerta temprana si se detecta que el valor de riesgo se desvía en exceso, pero también permite evaluar el nivel de riesgo de diseños de espacio aéreo o de nuevos modos de operación a partir de las trazas radar obtenidas en las simulaciones en tiempo real o acelerado y actuar en fases tempranas de los proyectos. ABSTRACT The air transport is a strategic sector for the economic growth of any country. The stability and development of the transport mode have a fundamental pillar in a safe operation, especially when long-term forecasts show scenarios of continuous growth in air traffic. Risk estimation and therefore the level of safety in an operational airspace has been based on indirect methods such as the quantification and analysis of voluntary reports of safety incidents or use of collision risk models focused on partial or simple operational scenarios such as an oceanic airspace. The operation on a terminal maneuvering area is complex, with different traffic flows of arrival and departure at one or more airports, with frequent changes in direction and speed of aircraft and tactical instructions of air traffic control to sequence and separate aircraft. The objective of this Thesis is to complement existing methods of monitoring safety that have their limitations, with the development of a collision risk model for high-density terminal areas that is based on objective data such as aircraft radar tracks and taking into account the complexity of the operation in a terminal area. To evaluate the developed model a prototype tool was implemented with MATLAB© that can process massive numbers of radar tracks for a terminal area scenario and computing a collision risk value for that scenario. The prototype has been used to estimate the probability of collision for different scenarios of the terminal area of Madrid. The use of radar tracks allows to monitor the level of risk of real scenarios periodically establishing levels of early warning when the risk value deviates too much, but also to assess the risk level of airspace designs or modes of operations from the radar tracks obtained in real or fast time simulations and act in the early stages of projects.

Bases y procesos de certificación de sistemas aéreos no tripulados

El objetivo de la tesis es el de crear unas bases de certificación para sistemas aéreos remotamente pilotados teniendo en consideración los siguientes requisitos: 1) La base ha de tener una estructura similar a la existente para los aviones tripulados. De esta manera se favorecerá una futura convergencia entre las bases de certificación según las misiones realizadas y las tecnologías empleadas por aviones tripulados y pilotados a distancia vayan convergiendo. La CS 23 y FAR 23 van a ser modificadas en profundidad en un futuro inmediato. Se ha considerado la redacción de la nueva normativa propuesta. 2) Los requisitos han de considerar los cambios definidos por las autoridades que gestionan el espacio aéreo. En Europa es SESAR JU quien gestiona el proceso. 3) Los organismos reguladores de la aviación están emitiendo consejos y recomendaciones para permitir la operación de los RPAS en el espacio aéreo no segregado. Asimismo han establecido unos principios fundamentales en los que han de basarse las bases de certificación. Se analizarán los documentos publicados al respecto por OACI, FAA y EASA que han aumentado significativamente en 2015. 4) Los altos niveles de seguridad alcanzados por la aviación han sido principalmente conseguidos gracias a la existencia de unas bases de certificación que se han actualizado frecuentemente considerando la experiencia en el diseño y la operación. Esta experiencia en los RPAS es reducida pero puede aportar importante información de seguridad. ABSTRACT The Goal of the Thesis is to create a certification specification for remotely piloted systems (RPAS). The methodology used for the development of the standard considers the following constrains: 1. The Base shall be defined in a similar way as the standards used for manned aircraft of the same category. This procedure will make possible a future merging of the standards for manned and unmanned system. It is foreseen that the missions performed and the technology used will be similar in a near future. CS23 and FAR 23 are going to be completely modified in a near future. The changed proposed will also be considered. 2. The standards developed must consider all the changes that are being defined by the air traffic management authorities around the globe. In Europe the program is being managed by SESAR Joint Undertaking. 3. The regulatory organizations are providing technical advice and recommendations in order to permit the operation of the RPAS in non-segregated airspace. There has been a big amount of documentation issued in the last year by ICAO, EASA and FAA. The standards developed should consider and implement these requirements. 4. The high safety record obtained by the manned aviation has been mainly due to the continuous update of the certifications standards based on the experience. The experience in the design and operation of RPAS is reduced but can already provide important safety information.

A methodology to estimate uncertainty for emission projections through sensitivity analysis

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the “with measures” scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance. Implications: A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.

Gerenciamento da qualidade e do custo do transporte de cargas por ônibus interurbano de passageiros

Algumas empresas de transporte intermunicipal e interestadual de transporte rodoviário de passageiros, objetivando maiores lucros, têm se dedicado ao transporte de determinados tipos de cargas e encomendas, aproveitando-se do fato do bagageiro do ônibus ser uma oferta fixa para o transporte. No entanto, percebe-se algumas deficiências de caráter operacional que podem comprometer a qualidade e o custo do serviço prestado. Portanto, essa pesquisa tem por finalidade analisar o transporte de cargas executado por ônibus sob a ótica da qualidade e do custo. Partindo-se da adaptação do modelo clássico de Parasuraman, bem como da adoção de direcionadores de custo, de acordo com o método de custeio baseado em atividades, pretende-se apresentar como as principais atividades que compõem os processos do transporte rodoviário de cargas são afetadas durante a prestação do serviço. Para tanto, é apresentada uma análise crítica qualitativa que estabelece a forma como essas atividades são influenciadas pelos gaps do modelo de qualidade proposto e como as mesmas influenciam o custo operacional. Tal análise é resultado de duas pesquisas realizadas. A primeira pesquisa foi de profundidade numa empresa que atua no segmento. Foram obtidos alguns indicadores de desempenhos que são vitais para que as atividades sejam executadas de acordo com as conformidades previstas. A segunda pesquisa, via questionário, possibilitou identificar as principais expectativas dos clientes. Mesmo com o índice reduzido de respostas do questionário, foram levantados pontos que são extremamente fundamentais para a formação das expectativas dos clientes. Entre esses pontos destacam-se o tempo de atendimento, o treinamento dos funcionários e o cumprimento dos horários preestabelecidos. Dos processos que caracterizam o transporte de cargas, deve-se destacar o processo de entrega que além dos problemas provenientes da operação propriamente dita, sofre ainda a interferência, em algumas atividades, da participação direta do cliente e dos fatores externos da operação (ambiente não controlado).