A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

The impact of consumer religiosity on consumer perceptions of risk

This brief provides the conceptual background of current research aiming to improve the understanding of the relationship between consumer religiosity and social and psychological risks associated with adopting new products and technologies. This project includes two main studies framed by Hunt-Vitell’s General Theory of Marketing Ethics and Theory of Moral Potency. Using scenario based experimental 2x2 design, two research questions will be answered upon the completion of the project: what is the nature of the relationship between consumer religiosity and perceptions of psychological and social risk? What is the role of moral potency in the relationship between consumer religiosity perception of psychological and social risk?

Risk compensation in construction workers' activities

Construction has been plagued with serious injuries and deaths for years. Although the technological advances have made the world safer and healthier, researchers have noted that some safety interventions, which had clear objective safety benefits, had failed to achieve the forecast savings in lives and injuries. The purpose of this study was to explore whether the construction workers show risk compensation and engage in greater risk taking when certain types of safety measures are implemented in the construction site. A case study approach was used to achieve the aim of this study. A typical construction site in Sydney was selected as the subject of the case study. Data were collected through direct observations, questionnaires and interviews. The findings confirm that workers show risk compensation behaviours in the construction environment. The risk compensation behaviours of workers varied with the level of experience and whether they have suffered from a past workplace injury. The findings of this study may offer a better understanding of workers’ behavioural patterns in construction environment and the effectiveness of safety interventions. The result of this study may provide supports for designing, implementing and evaluating safety interventions in construction site.

Cross-sectional survey of the health behaviour of southeast Queensland women with cancer-treatment induced menopause : Implications for cancer and primary care nurses

Purpose Women who experience cancer treatment-induced menopause are at risk of long-term chronic morbidity. This risk can be prevented or offset with adherence to health promotion and risk reduction guidelines. The purpose of this study was to explore health behaviours in younger female survivors of cancer and the variables (quality of life and psychological distress) believed to moderate health behaviours. Design Cross-sectional survey of a convenience sample of women (n = 85) in southeast Queensland. Methods Health behaviour and health status were elicited with items from the Australian Health Survey and the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System. The WHO Quality of Life (Brief) measured participants’ self-reported quality of life and their satisfaction with their health. The Brief Symptom Inventory-18 measured psychological distress. Findings Higher self-reported health status was associated with regular exercise and better quality of life. However, a substantial proportion of participants did not engage in the physical activity, dietary or cervical screening practices recommended by Australian guidelines. Conclusions The participants require education regarding the benefits of diet, exercise, weight loss and decreased alcohol intake, as well as information on future health risks and possible comorbidities. These education sessions could be addressed by a nurse-led health promotion model of care at the time of discharge or in the community.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods used to elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We ask subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decisions between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that, while on an aggregate (subject pool) level the results are consistent, on an individual (within-subject) level, behaviour is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low (simple and rank) correlations.

“We’re not like these weird feather boa-covered AIDS-spreading monsters” : How LGBT young people and service providers think riskiness informs LGBT youth–police interactions

Research has suggested that lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) young people are “at-risk” of victimization and/or legally “risky.” Relatively few studies have examined the social construction of risk in “risk factor” research and whether risk as a concept influences the everyday lives of LGBT young people. This article reports how 35 LGBT young people and seven service provider staff in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia perceived LGBT youth–police interactions as reflecting discourses about LGBT riskiness and danger. The participants specifically note how they thought looking at-risk and/or looking risky informed their policing experiences. The article concludes with recommendations for improving future policing practice.

Punishment Avoidance and Intentional Risky Driving Behaviour : What are the Implications for ‘Getting Away with it’?

Every motorised jurisdiction mandates legal driving behaviour which facilitates driver mobility and road user safety through explicit road rules that are enforced by regulatory authorities such as the Police. In road safety, traffic law enforcement has been very successfully applied to modify road user behaviour, and increasingly technology is fundamental in detecting illegal road user behaviour. Furthermore, there is also sound evidence that highly visible and/or intensive enforcement programs achieve long-term deterrent effects. To illustrate, in Australia random breath testing has considerably reduced the incidence and prevalence of driving whilst under the influence of alcohol. There is, however, evidence that many road rules continue to be broken, including speeding and using a mobile phone whilst driving, and there are many instances where drivers are not detected or sufficiently sanctioned for these transgressions. Furthermore, there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that experiences of punishment avoidance – that is, successful attempts at avoiding punishment such as drivers talking themselves out of a ticket, or changing driving routes to evade detection –are associated with and predictive of the extent of illegal driving behaviour and future illegal driving intentions. Therefore there is a need to better understand the phenomenon of punishment avoidance to enhance our traffic law enforcement procedures and therefore safety of all road users. This chapter begins with a review of the young driver road safety problem, followed by an examination of contemporary deterrence theory to enhance our understanding of both the experiences and implications of punishment avoidance in the road environment. It is noteworthy that in situations where detection and punishment remain relatively rare, such as on extensive road networks, the research evidence suggests that experiences of punishment avoidance may have a stronger influence upon risky driving behaviour than experiences of punishment. Finally, data from a case study examining the risky behaviour of young drivers will be presented, and the implications for ‘getting away with it’ will be discussed.

Concealed texting while driving : what are young people’s beliefs about this risky behaviour?

Making a conscious effort to hide the fact that one is texting while driving (i.e., concealed texting) is a deliberate and risky behaviour involving attention diverted from the road. As the most frequent users of text messaging services and mobile phones while driving, young people appear at heightened crash risk from engaging in this behaviour. First, several small focus group discussions (N = 12) were carried out to elicit the underlying salient beliefs regarding this behaviour, in accordance with the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Findings from these discussions, in conjunction with available prior evidence regarding general mobile phone use while driving, then informed questionnaire items that assessed young peoples’ beliefs regarding this behaviour, as well as intention to engage in this behaviour in the next week. In the questionnaire phase of the study, participants (N = 171) were aged 17–25 years, owned a mobile phone, and held a current driver’s licence. Results showed that there were significant differences between low and high intenders (to engage in concealed texting while driving) on the behavioural, normative, and control beliefs investigated. Specifically, high intenders were more likely to believe that concealed texting while driving would result in sharing information with others, using time effectively, and were less likely to think that free-flowing traffic would prevent their engagement in this behaviour. By targeting these beliefs, these findings may potentially inform the development of advertising and other public intervention strategies, aimed at ensuring young drivers reconsider their engagement in this risky behaviour.

Screening for risk of later mental health problems : a longitudinal study

Purpose: This is one of the first studies to report that the Achenbach internalising scales were much more effective at identifying those with current comorbid depression and anxiety, rather than individual mood disorder. Introduction: The Achenbach behaviour checklists (YSR,YASR) are widely used, low cost screening tools used to assess problem behaviour. Several studies report good association between the checklists and psychiatric diagnoses; although with varying degrees of agreement. Most are cross-sectional studies involving adolescents referred to mental health services; few are in large community-based studies. This study examined the usefulness of the Achenbach internalising scales in the primary screening (both predictive and concurrent)for depression and anxiety. Methods: The sample was 2400 young adults from an Australian population-based prospective birth cohort study. The association between the empirical anxiety and depression scales were individually assessed against DSM-IV depression and anxiety diagnoses. Odds ratios and diagnostic efficiency tests report the findings. Results: Adolescents with internalising symptoms were twice (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.7 to 3.1) as likely to be diagnosed with later DSM-IV depression. YASR internalising scale predicted DSM-IV mood disorders (depression OR = 6.9, 95% CI 5.0–9.5; anxiety OR = 5.1, 95% CI 3.8–6.7) in the previous 12 months. The internalising scales were much more effective at identifying those with comorbid depression and anxiety. Conclusions: Adolescence and early adulthood are key risk periods for the onset of anxiety and depression. This study found that young people with internalising behaviour problems were more likely to have comorbid depression and anxiety DSM-IV disorder.

Awareness of risky behaviour among Chinese drivers

Background In China, as in many developing countries, rapid increases in car ownership and new drivers have been coupled with a large trauma burden. The World Health Organization has identified key risk factors including speeding, drink-driving, helmet and restraint non-use, overloaded vehicles, and fatigued-driving in many rapidly motorising countries, including China. Levels of awareness of these risk factors among road users are not well understood. Although research identifies speeding as the major factor contributing to road crashes in China, there appears to be widespread acceptance of it among the broader community. Purpose To assess self-reported speeding and awareness of crash risk factors among Chinese drivers in Beijing. Methods Car drivers (n=299) were recruited from car washing locations and car parks to complete an anonymous questionnaire. Perceptions of the relative risk of drink-driving, fatigued-driving and speeding, and attitudes towards speeding and self-reported driving speeds were assessed. Results Overall, driving speeds of >10km/hr above posted limits on two road types (60 and 80 km/hour zones) were reported by more than one third of drivers. High-range speeding (i.e., >30 km/hour in a 60 km/hour zone and >40 km/hour in an 80 km/hour zone) was reported by approximately 5% of the sample. Attitudinal measures indicated that approximately three quarters of drivers reported attitudes that were not supportive of speeding. Drink-driving was identified as the most risky behaviour; 18% reported the perception that drink-driving had the same level of danger as speeding and 82% reported it as more dangerous. For fatigued-driving, 1% reported the perception that it was not as dangerous as speeding; 27.4% reported it as the same level and 71.6% perceived it as more dangerous. Conclusion Driving speeds well above posted speed limits were commonly reported by drivers. Speeding was rated as the least dangerous on-road behaviour, compared to drink-driving and fatigued-driving. One third of drivers reported regularly engaging in speeds at least 10km/hr above posted limits, despite speeding being the major reported contributor to crashes. Greater awareness of the risks associated with speeding is needed to help reduce the road trauma burden in China and promote greater speed limit compliance.

Impact of cognitive behaviour therapy via mail for cessation of benzodiazepine use : a series of case reports

Benzodiazepines are widely prescribed to manage sleep disorders, anxiety and muscular tension. While providing short-term relief, continued use induces tolerance and withdrawal, and in older users, increases the risk of falls. However, long-term prescription remains common, and effective interventions are not widely available. This study developed a self-managed cognitive behaviour therapy package for cessation of benzodiazepine use delivered to participants via mail (M-CBT) and trialled its effectiveness as an adjunct to a general practitioner (GP)-managed dose reduction schedule. In the pilot trial, participants were randomly assigned to GP management with immediate or delayed M-CBT. Significant recruitment and engagement problems were experienced, and only three participants were allocated to each condition. After immediate M-CBT, two participants ceased use, while none receiving delayed treatment reduced daily intake by more than 50%. Across the sample, doses at 12 months remained significantly lower than baseline, and qualitative feedback from participants was positive. While M-CBT may have promise, improved engagement of GPs and participants is needed for this approach to substantially impact on community-wide benzodiazepine use.

A Cyber-Physical System Simulator for risk-free transport studies

The article introduces a novel platform for conducting controlled and risk-free driving and traveling behavior studies, called Cyber-Physical System Simulator (CPSS). The key features of CPSS are: (1) simulation of multiuser immersive driving in a threedimensional (3D) virtual environment; (2) integration of traffic and communication simulators with human driving based on dedicated middleware; and (3) accessibility of multiuser driving simulator on popular software and hardware platforms. This combination of features allows us to easily collect large-scale data on interesting phenomena regarding the interaction between multiple user drivers, which is not possible with current single-user driving simulators. The core original contribution of this article is threefold: (1) we introduce a multiuser driving simulator based on DiVE, our original massively multiuser networked 3D virtual environment; (2) we introduce OpenV2X, a middleware for simulating vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure communication; and (3) we present two experiments based on our CPSS platform. The first experiment investigates the “rubbernecking” phenomenon, where a platoon of four user drivers experiences an accident in the oncoming direction of traffic. Second, we report on a pilot study about the effectiveness of a Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems advisory system.

From impact assessment to user-friendly risk management decision-making

In earlier cultures and societies, hazards and risks to human health were dealt with by methods derived from myth, metaphor and ritual. In modem society however, notions of hazard and risk have been transformed from the level of a folk discourse to that of an expert centred concept (Plough & Krimsky, 1987). With the professionalization of risk and hazard analysis came a preferred framework for decision making based on a range of 'technical' methodologies (Giere, 1991 ). This is especially true for decision processes relating to risk assessment and management, and impact assessment. Such approaches however, often entail narrow technical-based theoretical assumptions about human behaviour and the natural world, and the· methods used. They therefore carry 'in-built' error factors that contribute considerable uncertainty to the results.

Risk-management of UAS robust autonomy for its integration into civil aviation safety frameworks

This paper discusses a model of the civil aviation reg- ulation framework and shows how the current assess- ment of reliability and risk for piloted aircraft has limited applicability for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) with high levels of autonomous decision mak- ing. Then, a new framework for risk management of robust autonomy is proposed, which arises from combining quantified measures of risk with normative decision making. The term Robust Autonomy de- scribes the ability of an autonomous system to either continue or abort its operation whilst not breaching a minimum level of acceptable safety in the presence of anomalous conditions. The decision making associ- ated with risk management requires quantifying prob- abilities associated with the measures of risk and also consequences of outcomes related to the behaviour of autonomy. The probabilities are computed from an assessment under both nominal and anomalous sce- narios described by faults, which can be associated with the aircraft’s actuators, sensors, communication link, changes in dynamics, and the presence of other aircraft in the operational space. The consequences of outcomes are characterised by a loss function which rewards the certification decision

Regulation of ROCK1 via Notch1 during breast cancer cell migration into dense matrices

Background The behaviour of tumour cells depends on factors such as genetics and the tumour microenvironment. The latter plays a crucial role in normal mammary gland development and also in breast cancer initiation and progression. Breast cancer tissues tend to be highly desmoplastic and dense matrix as a pre-existing condition poses one of the highest risk factors for cancer development. However, matrix influence on tumour cell gene expression and behaviour such as cell migration is not fully elucidated. Results We generated high-density (HD) matrices that mimicked tumour collagen content of 20 mg/cm3 that were ~14-fold stiffer than low-density (LD) matrix of 1 mg/cm3. Live-cell imaging showed breast cancer cells utilizing cytoplasmic streaming and cell body contractility for migration within HD matrix. Cell migration was blocked in the presence of both the ROCK inhibitor, Y-27632, and the MMP inhibitor, GM6001, but not by the drugs individually. This suggests roles for ROCK1 and MMP in cell migration are complicated by compensatory mechanisms. ROCK1 expression and protein activity, were significantly upregulated in HD matrix but these were blocked by treatment with a histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor, MS-275. In HD matrix, the inhibition of ROCK1 by MS-275 was indirect and relied upon protein synthesis and Notch1. Inhibition of Notch1 using pooled siRNA or DAPT abrogated the inhibition of ROCK1 by MS-275. Conclusion Increased matrix density elevates ROCK1 activity, which aids in cell migration via cell contractility. The upregulation of ROCK1 is epigenetically regulated in an indirect manner involving the repression of Notch1. This is demonstrated from inhibition of HDACs by MS-275, which caused an upregulation of Notch1 levels leading to blockade of ROCK1 expression.