Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts

The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are crucial to climate scales, including interactions between land, atmosphere, and ocean; convection and microphysics; and cloud, aerosol, and radiation; and system consistency throughout all process modules. This extension inherits all WRF functionalities for numerical weather prediction while enhancing the capability for climate modeling. As such, CWRF can be applied seamlessly to weather forecast and climate prediction. The CWRF is built with a comprehensive ensemble of alternative parameterization schemes for each of the key physical processes, including surface (land, ocean), planetary boundary layer, cumulus (deep, shallow), microphysics, cloud, aerosol, and radiation, and their interactions. This facilitates the use of an optimized physics ensemble approach to improve weather or climate prediction along with a reliable uncertainty estimate. The CWRF also emphasizes the societal service capability to provide impactrelevant information by coupling with detailed models of terrestrial hydrology, coastal ocean, crop growth, air quality, and a recently expanded interactive water quality and ecosystem model. This study provides a general CWRF description and basic skill evaluation based on a continuous integration for the period 1979– 2009 as compared with that of WRF, using a 30-km grid spacing over a domain that includes the contiguous United States plus southern Canada and northern Mexico. In addition to advantages of greater application capability, CWRF improves performance in radiation and terrestrial hydrology over WRF and other regional models. Precipitation simulation, however, remains a challenge for all of the tested models.

Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness

Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression storage, and roughness coefficient in channels. In the final (a posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albujón watershed; 556 km 2 ), which showed a complex multi-peak response. First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly different behavior.

Phase calibration of the EISCAT Svalbard Radar interferometer using optical satellite signatures

The link between natural ion-line enhancements in radar spectra and auroral activity has been the subject of recent studies but conclusions have been limited by the spatial and temporal resolution previously available. The next challenge is to use shorter sub-second integration times in combination with interferometric programmes to resolve spatial structure within the main radar beam, and so relate enhanced filaments to individual auroral rays. This paper presents initial studies of a technique, using optical and spectral satellite signatures, to calibrate the received phase of a signal with the position of the scattering source along the interferometric baseline of the EISCAT Svalbard Radar. It is shown that a consistent relationship can be found only if the satellite passage through the phase fringes is adjusted from the passage predicted by optical tracking. This required adjustment is interpreted as being due to the vector between the theoretical focusing points of the two antennae, i.e. the true radar baseline, differing from the baseline obtained by survey between the antenna foot points. A method to obtain a measurement of the true interferometric baseline using multiple satellite passes is outlined.

Stakeholder interpretations of design: Semiotic insights into the briefing process

Briefing phase interactions between clients and designers are recognized as social engagements, characterized by communicative sign use, where conceptual ideas are gradually transformed into potential design solutions. A semiotic analysis of briefing communications between client stakeholders and designers provides evidence of the significance and importance of stakeholder interpretation and understanding of design, empirical data being drawn from a qualitative study of NHS hospital construction projects in the UK. It is contended that stakeholders engage with a project through communicative signs and artefacts of design, referencing personal cognitive knowledge in acts of interpretation that may be different from those of designers and externally appointed client advisers. Such interpretations occur in addition to NHS client and design team efforts to ‘engage’ with and ‘understand’ stakeholders using a variety of methods. Social semiotic theorizations indicate how narrative strategies motivate the formulation of signs and artefacts in briefing work, the role of sign authors and sign readers being elucidated as a result. Findings are contextualized against current understandings of briefing communications and stakeholder management practices, a more socially attuned understanding of briefing countering some of the process-led improvement models that have characterized much of the post-Egan report literature. A stakeholder interpretation model is presented as one potential method to safeguard against unforeseen interpretations occurring, the model aligning with the proposal for a more measured recognition of how designs can trigger interpretations among client stakeholders.

A traceable physical calibration of the vertical advection-diffusion equation for modelling ocean heat uptake

The classic vertical advection-diffusion (VAD) balance is a central concept in studying the ocean heat budget, in particular in simple climate models (SCMs). Here we present a new framework to calibrate the parameters of the VAD equation to the vertical ocean heat balance of two fully-coupled climate models that is traceable to the models’ circulation as well as to vertical mixing and diffusion processes. Based on temperature diagnostics, we derive an effective vertical velocity w∗ and turbulent diffusivity k∗ for each individual physical process. In steady-state, we find that the residual vertical velocity and diffusivity change sign in mid-depth, highlighting the different regional contributions of isopycnal and diapycnal diffusion in balancing the models’ residual advection and vertical mixing. We quantify the impacts of the time-evolution of the effective quantities under a transient 1%CO2 simulation and make the link to the parameters of currently employed SCMs.

Scene understanding for auto-calibration of surveillance cameras

In the last decade, several research results have presented formulations for the auto-calibration problem. Most of these have relied on the evaluation of vanishing points to extract the camera parameters. Normally vanishing points are evaluated using pedestrians or the Manhattan World assumption i.e. it is assumed that the scene is necessarily composed of orthogonal planar surfaces. In this work, we present a robust framework for auto-calibration, with improved results and generalisability for real-life situations. This framework is capable of handling problems such as occlusions and the presence of unexpected objects in the scene. In our tests, we compare our formulation with the state-of-the-art in auto-calibration using pedestrians and Manhattan World-based assumptions. This paper reports on the experiments conducted using publicly available datasets; the results have shown that our formulation represents an improvement over the state-of-the-art.

Development and calibration of a portable radon sampling system for groundwater (222)Rn activity concentration measurements

The assembling of a system for field sampling and activity concentration measurement of radon dissolved in groundwater is described. Special attention is given in presenting the calibration procedure to obtain the radon activity concentration in groundwater from the raw counting rate registered in a portable scintillation detector and in establishing the precision of the activity concentration measurements. A field procedure was established and the system tested during one year of monthly observations of (222)Rn activity concentration in groundwater drawn from two wells drilled on metamorphic rocks exposed at Eastern Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The observed mean (222)Rn activity concentrations are 374 Bq/dm(3) in one well and about 1275 Bq/dm(3) in the other one. In both wells the (222)Rn activity concentrations showed a seasonal variation similar to variations previously reported in the literature for the same region. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrochemical behavior of the cistein and diphosfonate for stainless steel in media of HCl 1 mol L(-1)

Amino acids and self assembled monolayers (SAM`s) have been studied as to their inhibiting action on the corrosion of metallic materials. The objective of work is to study the electrochemical behavior of the cisteincisteine, the diphosfonate and the mixture of both in inhibiting the action of corrosion on stainless steel 304 in HCl 1 molL(-1). As the following techniques were used: open circuit potential (OCP), potenciostatic anodic polarization (A P), chronoamperomeny (CA), electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and optical microscopy (OM). The results of CA showed that cisteine has a double effect, catalytic and inhibiting, in function of the immersion time of the metallic part in the electrolytic solution. AP curves have shown lesser current density for the system containing cisteine diphosfonate suggesting an inhibiting synergic action. These results have been confirmed by EIS and OM.

Studies of Design and Assembly Defects on Integrated and Modular Architectures

It is known that despite companies’ efforts to improve the quality of their products, design and assembly defects results in large repair costs both in terms of repair and providing feedback to the origin of the defect. The purpose of this paper is to study these types of defects and the defect rates in design and assembly. The paper presents a web based questionnaire answered by 29 companies. The result shows that the defect rate (defects per product) spanned from 0.01 to 10. Also, design and assembly defects covered 46%, 23% respectively, of all occurred defects. A case study is also presented, performed at a company who recently implemented a modular architecture. In this company, defects from 5 700 integrated product architectures are compared with defects from 431 modular architectures. The average defect rate increased by 21.5% – from 0.65 to 0.79 – when a more modular architecture has been implemented. Furthermore, the study showed that the assembly defects have decreased while the design defects increased. The results presented in this paper will also support the development of the MPV (Module Property Verification) method which is briefly described.

Comparison of selective genotyping strategies for prediction of breeding values in a population undergoing selection

Genomewide marker information can improve the reliability of breeding value predictions for young selection candidates in genomic selection. However, the cost of genotyping limits its use to elite animals, and how such selective genotyping affects predictive ability of genomic selection models is an open question. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the quality of breeding value predictions for selection candidates based on different selective genotyping strategies in a population undergoing selection. The genome consisted of 10 chromosomes of 100 cM each. After 5,000 generations of random mating with a population size of 100 (50 males and 50 females), generation G(0) (reference population) was produced via a full factorial mating between the 50 males and 50 females from generation 5,000. Different levels of selection intensities (animals with the largest yield deviation value) in G(0) or random sampling (no selection) were used to produce offspring of G(0) generation (G(1)). Five genotyping strategies were used to choose 500 animals in G(0) to be genotyped: 1) Random: randomly selected animals, 2) Top: animals with largest yield deviation values, 3) Bottom: animals with lowest yield deviations values, 4) Extreme: animals with the 250 largest and the 250 lowest yield deviations values, and 5) Less Related: less genetically related animals. The number of individuals in G(0) and G(1) was fixed at 2,500 each, and different levels of heritability were considered (0.10, 0.25, and 0.50). Additionally, all 5 selective genotyping strategies (Random, Top, Bottom, Extreme, and Less Related) were applied to an indicator trait in generation G(0), and the results were evaluated for the target trait in generation G(1), with the genetic correlation between the 2 traits set to 0.50. The 5 genotyping strategies applied to individuals in G(0) (reference population) were compared in terms of their ability to predict the genetic values of the animals in G(1) (selection candidates). Lower correlations between genomic-based estimates of breeding values (GEBV) and true breeding values (TBV) were obtained when using the Bottom strategy. For Random, Extreme, and Less Related strategies, the correlation between GEBV and TBV became slightly larger as selection intensity decreased and was largest when no selection occurred. These 3 strategies were better than the Top approach. In addition, the Extreme, Random, and Less Related strategies had smaller predictive mean squared errors (PMSE) followed by the Top and Bottom methods. Overall, the Extreme genotyping strategy led to the best predictive ability of breeding values, indicating that animals with extreme yield deviations values in a reference population are the most informative when training genomic selection models.

Influence of design parameters on linear induction motor end effect

In this paper, a factor referred to as k(f) for linear induction motor end effect analysis is presented. The mathematical model takes into account the longitudinal entry end effect. The entry end effect produces considerable distortion in magnetic field distribution. It is shown how this influence is derived from the machine-developed force that is calculated through the application of the I-D theory. The k(f) factor establishes the relationship between the longitudinal end effect and machine parameters, mainly the number of magnetic poles, secondary resistivity, and frequency.

Assessment of cytokine values in serum by RT-PCR in HIV-1 infected individuals with and without highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Determination and padronization of normal values of bone mineral density (BMD) of the acessory carpus bone in young Thoroughbred horse using optical densitometry in radiographic image

Em 12 fêmeas e 12 machos da raça Puro Sangue Inglês com idade média de 12 meses, avaliou-se os valores normais da densidade mineral óssea do carpo acessório em milímetros de alumínio (mmAl) até o momento do fechamento completo da epífise distal do rádio, por meio do método de densitometria óptica em imagens radiográficas. A avaliação foi realizada por meio de um programa computacional (software) especialmente desenvolvido para medida de densidade óptica em filmes de raios-X, o qual contém a imagem radiográfica do osso carpo acessório, região de partes moles adjacente ao carpo acessório e os degraus de uma escala de alumínio (phatom), que permitiu a medida de densidade mineral óssea, sendo esta a média aritmética da região de interesse determinada no osso carpo acessório correspondente ao valor em milímetros da escala. Os valores da densidade mineral óssea em mmAl do acessório do carpo em função da idade não apresentaram diferenças entre os sexos (p=0,86) permitindo que uma equação de reta fosse ajustada para ambos os sexos (densidade mineral óssea (DMO) mmAl = 3.109 + 0,056 x idade em meses), na faixa etária estudada.

Construction and calibration of permeation tubes.

A dynamic system for stablishing a known standard gas mixture is necessary for many studies such as development and testing of analytical methods. A permeation tube can be used for this purpose. The work described here shows the construction, operation and calibration of a simple permeation tube which can be used to obtain large amounts of a standard gas.