Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Reasoned versus reactive prediction of behaviour: a meta-analysis of the prototype willingness model

The prototype willingness model (PWM) was designed to extend expectancy-value models of health behaviour by also including a heuristic, or social reactive pathway, to better explain health-risk behaviours in adolescents and young adults. The pathway includes prototype, i.e., images of a typical person who engages in a behaviour, and willingness to engage in behaviour. The current study describes a meta-analysis of predictive research using the PWM and explores the role of the heuristic pathway and intentions in predicting behaviour. Eighty-one studies met inclusion criteria. Overall, the PWM was supported and explained 20.5% of the variance in behaviour. Willingness explained 4.9% of the variance in behaviour over and above intention, although intention tended to be more strongly related to behaviour than was willingness. The strength of the PWM relationships tended to vary according to the behaviour being tested, with alcohol consumption being the behaviour best explained. Age was also an important moderator, and, as expected, PWM behaviour was best accounted for within adolescent samples. Results were heterogeneous even after moderators were taken into consideration. This meta-analysis provides support for the PWM and may be used to inform future interventions that can be tailored for at-risk populations.

Motor fault detection and diagnosis using a hybrid FMM-CART model with online learning

In this paper, a hybrid online learning model that combines the fuzzy min-max (FMM) neural network and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) for motor fault detection and diagnosis tasks is described. The hybrid model, known as FMM-CART, incorporates the advantages of both FMM and CART for undertaking data classification (with FMM) and rule extraction (with CART) problems. In particular, the CART model is enhanced with an importance predictor-based feature selection measure. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed online FMM-CART model, a series of experiments using publicly available data sets containing motor bearing faults is first conducted. The results (primarily prediction accuracy and model complexity) are analyzed and compared with those reported in the literature. Then, an experimental study on detecting imbalanced voltage supply of an induction motor using a laboratory-scale test rig is performed. In addition to producing accurate results, a set of rules in the form of a decision tree is extracted from FMM-CART to provide explanations for its predictions. The results positively demonstrate the usefulness of FMM-CART with online learning capabilities in tackling real-world motor fault detection and diagnosis tasks. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Development of a conceptual model of cancer caregiver health literacy.

Caregivers play a vital role in caring for people diagnosed with cancer. However, little is understood about caregivers' capacity to find, understand, appraise and use information to improve health outcomes. The study aimed to develop a conceptual model that describes the elements of cancer caregiver health literacy. Six concept mapping workshops were conducted with 13 caregivers, 13 people with cancer and 11 healthcare providers/policymakers. An iterative, mixed methods approach was used to analyse and synthesise workshop data and to generate the conceptual model. Six major themes and 17 subthemes were identified from 279 statements generated by participants during concept mapping workshops. Major themes included: access to information, understanding of information, relationship with healthcare providers, relationship with the care recipient, managing challenges of caregiving and support systems. The study extends conceptualisations of health literacy by identifying factors specific to caregiving within the cancer context. The findings demonstrate that caregiver health literacy is multidimensional, includes a broad range of individual and interpersonal elements, and is influenced by broader healthcare system and community factors. These results provide guidance for the development of: caregiver health literacy measurement tools; strategies for improving health service delivery, and; interventions to improve caregiver health literacy.

A holistic measurement model of movement competency in children

Different countries have different methods for assessing movement competence in children; however, it is unclear whether the test batteries that are used measure the same aspects of movement competence. The aim of this paper was to (1) investigate whether the Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD-2) and Körperkoordinations Test für Kinder (KTK) measure the same aspects of children’s movement competence and (2) examine the factorial structure of the TGMD-2 and KTK in a sample of Australian children. A total of 158 children participated (M age = 9.5; SD = 2.2). First, confirmatory factor analysis examined the independent factorial structure of the KTK and TGMD-2. Second, it was investigated whether locomotor, object control and body coordination loaded on the latent variable Movement Competency. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated an adequate fit for both the KTK and TGMD-2. An adequate fit was also achieved for the final model. In this model, locomotor (r = .86), object control (r = .71) and body coordination (r = .52) loaded on movement competence. Findings support our hypothesis that the TGMD-2 and KTK measure discrete aspects of movement competence. Future researchers and practitioners should consider using a wider range of test batteries to assess movement competence.

Taking the good life to the institution: forensic service users' perceptions of the good lives model

Previous literature has highlighted a number of concerns about forensic care and rehabilitation by those who use the services. The Good Lives Model (GLM) is a strength-based, humanistic approach to offender rehabilitation that has been largely overlooked by forensic mental health practitioners. This study explored the impact of a brief GLM program on forensic service users' perceptions of rehabilitation, both within and beyond therapeutic programs, using a thematically linked, multiple-case study research design. Pre-post comparisons of participants' perceptions of rehabilitation suggested three different outcomes: definite change, subtle change, and no change. Possible factors associated with participants' divergent experiences included level of exposure to the GLM, readiness to change, and practitioners' adherence to the GLM and experience with the model. The importance of attending to the wider system for successful implementation of this innovative approach is highlighted.

A model for lesbian, bisexual and queer-related influences on alcohol consumption and implications for policy and practice

Research consistently reports higher rates of problematic drinking among lesbian, bisexual and queer women than among heterosexual women, but relatively little research has identified underlying factors. Within this context, the aim of the present study was to qualitatively explore the sociocultural influences on alcohol consumption among lesbian, bisexual and queer women in Australia. An ethnographic study including in-depth interviews and 10 sessions of participant observation was conducted with 25 Australian lesbian, bisexual and queer women. Analysis of transcripts and fieldnotes focused on lesbian, bisexual and queer-related influences on alcohol consumption. Three lesbian, bisexual and queer-related factors were identified that influenced alcohol use: (1) coping, (2) connection and (3) intersections with lesbian, bisexual and queer identity. Most participants reported consuming alcohol to cope with discrimination or to connect with like-minded others. Alcohol use had positive influences for some women through facilitating social connection and wellbeing. Women with a high lesbian, bisexual and queer identity salience were more likely to seek lesbian, bisexual and queer community connection involving alcohol, to publicly identify as lesbian, bisexual and queer and to experience discrimination. National policies need to address underlying causes of discrimination against lesbian, bisexual and queer women. Alcohol policies and clinical interventions should acknowledge the impact of discrimination on higher alcohol consumption amongst lesbian, bisexual and queer women compared with heterosexual women, and should utilise health promotion messages regarding safe drinking that facilitate lesbian, bisexual and queer social connection.

Ecological model of Australian Indigenous men's health

This study was designed to examine the health behaviors as well as the enablers and barriers to health behaviors among Indigenous Australian men. One hundred and fifty Indigenous Australian men in rural, regional, and urban locations were interviewed about their health behaviors. The results revealed several themes of importance: (a) role of community activities, (b) the Indigenous man as a leader and role model, (c) negative impact of discrimination/racism, (d) importance of partner and family, (e) positive and negative role of peer relationships, (f) central role of culturally appropriate health care facilities, and (g) association between employment and health care problems. These findings highlight the importance of broad community-based (rather than individualistic) approaches to promoting health behavior in Indigenous men.

A model of pilgrimage tourism: process, interface, people and sequence

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the elements of the main process of pilgrimage tourism (PT), occurring between pilgrims, hikers and tourists along a trail towards a holy site. PT is defined as a process consisting of three sub-processes over time and across contexts: pre-process, main process and post-process. Design/methodology/approach – Explores the core reasons for PT through active participation and observation. Findings – This study reveals different layers, levels, views, approaches and perspectives involved in people-based processes. The study attempts to conceptualize the elements involved between people committed and dedicated to PT. Research limitations/implications – The introduced model of PT stresses the processes and interfaces involved over time and across contexts between people, with the same or different sequences. There is, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous research that explores and describes the processes and interaction between pilgrims, hikers and tourists. Practical implications – The ultimate experience at an individual level differs, depending upon the outcome of the PT-elements of the model of PT (i.e. processes, interfaces, people and sequences). Social implications – From a social science perspective, the research examines the motives of different traveller types and looks at their different perspectives of being involved with the same physical activity of travel. The study emphasises that we can be involved in the same physical activity, but embrace it with different levels of personal and emotional engagement. Originality/value – A conceptualized model of PT containing four elements (process, interface, people and sequence) – all of which offer a foundation for structuring and assessing empirical research, and provide additional insights and knowledge into the dynamics and complexity involved specifically in a people-based process consisting of interfaces and sequences when travelling.

DNA methylation and the social gradient of osteoporotic fracture: a conceptual model

INTRODUCTION: Although there is a documented social gradient for osteoporosis, the underlying mechanism(s) for that gradient remain unknown. We propose a conceptual model based upon the allostatic load theory, to suggest how DNA methylation (DNAm) might underpin the social gradient in osteoporosis and fracture. We hypothesise that social disadvantage is associated with priming of inflammatory pathways mediated by epigenetic modification that leads to an enhanced state of inflammatory reactivity and oxidative stress, and thus places socially disadvantaged individuals at greater risk of osteoporotic fracture. METHODS/RESULTS: Based on a review of the literature, we present a conceptual model in which social disadvantage increases stress throughout the lifespan, and engenders a proinflammatory epigenetic signature, leading to a heightened inflammatory state that increases risk for osteoporotic fracture in disadvantaged groups that are chronically stressed. CONCLUSIONS: Our model proposes that, in addition to the direct biological effects exerted on bone by factors such as physical activity and nutrition, the recognised socially patterned risk factors for osteoporosis also act via epigenetic-mediated dysregulation of inflammation. DNAm is a dynamic modulator of gene expression with considerable relevance to the field of osteoporosis. Elucidating the extent to which this epigenetic mechanism transduces the psycho-social environment to increase the risk of osteoporotic fracture may yield novel entry points for intervention that can be used to reduce individual and population-wide risks for osteoporotic fracture. Specifically, an epigenetic evidence-base may strengthen the importance of lifestyle modification and stress reduction programs, and help to reduce health inequities across social groups. MINI ABSTRACT: Our conceptual model proposes how DNA methylation might underpin the social gradient in osteoporotic fracture. We suggest that social disadvantage is associated with priming of inflammatory signalling pathways, which is mediated by epigenetic modifications, leading to a chronically heightened inflammatory state that places disadvantaged individuals at greater risk of osteoporosis.

A path model of psychosocial and health behaviour change predictors of excessive gestational weight gain

This study aimed to evaluate a conceptual model of psychosocial, behaviour change, and behavioural predictors of excessive gestational weight gain (GWG). Background: Excessive GWG can place women and their babies at risk of poor health outcomes, including obesity. Models of psychosocial and behaviour change predictors of excessive GWG have not been extensively explored; understanding the mechanisms leading to excess GWG will provide crucial evidence towards the development of effective interventions. Method: Two hundred and eighty-eight pregnant women (≤18 weeks gestation) were recruited to a prospective study. Demographic, psychosocial, health behaviour change, and behavioural factors were assessed at 17 (Time 1, T1) and 33 weeks (Time 2, T2) gestation. Pre-pregnancy and final pregnancy weight were obtained and women were classified with/without excessive GWG. Logistic regressions refined the list of predictors of excessive GWG; variables with p < .1 were included in a path analysis. Results: Age, family income, T2 depression, T2 pregnancy-specific coping, T1 buttocks dissatisfaction, T2 GWG-specific self-efficacy, T1 dietary readiness, T1 dietary importance, and T1 vegetable intake predicted excessive GWG in the logistic regressions and were included in the path model. The baseline path model demonstrated poor fit. Once statistically and theoretically plausible paths were added, adequate model fit was achieved (χ² = 21.61(9), p < .05; RMSEA = .07; CFI = .93); this revised model explained 19.5% of the variance in excessive GWG. Women with high T1 buttocks dissatisfaction were more likely to exhibit low levels of dietary readiness. Women with low dietary readiness were more likely to have a lower vegetable intake, which predicted excessive GWG. Women with higher T2 depressive symptoms were more likely to report lower GWG self-efficacy and gain excessively. Conclusion: Future behavioural GWG trials should consider combining psychosocial and health behaviour change factors to optimise GWG.

Nanostructured liquid crystalline particle assisted delivery of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid to weeds, crops and model plants

Routine agricultural practices are heavily dependent on the use of surfactants, many of which are toxic to humans and detrimental to the environment. In proof of concept work we have previously shown the potential of nanostructured liquid crystalline particles (NLCP) to safely interact with plant leaf cuticular surfaces with minimal impact on epicuticular waxes. Here we demonstrate the use of NLCP to effectively deliver the auxin herbicide 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) to plant leaves in laboratory and field studies. In the laboratory, the physiological stress responses of lupin, Lupinus angustifolius (L.) (Fabaceae) towards NLCP spray applications were shown to be much reduced in comparison with application of two common surfactants. Phytotoxicity assays of 2,4-D loaded NLCP were used to validate the herbicidal effects on Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynth. (Brassicaceae) and established a similarity with that of surfactant assisted 2,4-D delivery when tested at a concentration of 0.1%. Field trials were conducted to test the efficacy of NLCP-assisted delivery of 2,4-D in comparison with commercial surfactants for the control of the invasive weed wild radish, Raphanus raphanistrum (L.) (Brassicaceae), in wheat, Triticum aestivum (L.) (Poaceae) crop fields. Compared against Estercide 800, a commercially available 2,4-D formulation, NLCP assisted delivery of 2,4-D was effective at low concentrations of 0.03% and 0.06%. The crop yield remained similar for all the tested concentrations and formulations of 2,4-D loaded NLCP and Estercide 800. This is the first report to directly show that, as an alternative to conventional methods, NLCP can be used under both laboratory and field conditions to successfully delivery an agrochemical.

A GARCH model for testing market efficiency

In this paper we propose a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model-based test for a unit root. The model allows for two endogenous structural breaks. We test for unit roots in 156 US stocks listed on the NYSE over the period 1980 to 2007. We find that the unit root null hypothesis is rejected in 40% of the stocks, and only in four out of the nine sectors the null is rejected for over 50% of stocks. We conclude with an economic significance analysis, showing that mostly stocks with mean reverting prices tend to outperform stocks with non-stationary prices.

Ontology-based automated support for goal–use case model analysis

Combining goal-oriented and use case modeling has been proven to be an effective method in requirements elicitation and elaboration. To ensure the quality of such modeled artifacts, a detailed model analysis needs to be performed. However, current requirements engineering approaches generally lack reliable support for automated analysis of consistency, correctness and completeness (3Cs problems) between and within goal models and use case models. In this paper, we present a goal–use case integration framework with tool support to automatically identify such 3Cs problems. Our new framework relies on the use of ontologies of domain knowledge and semantics and our goal–use case integration meta-model. Moreover, functional grammar is employed to enable the semiautomated transformation of natural language specifications into Manchester OWL Syntax for automated reasoning. The evaluation of our tool support shows that for representative example requirements, our approach achieves over 85 % soundness and completeness rates and detects more problems than the benchmark applications.

Social presence – connecting pre-service teachers as learners using a blended learning model

The national reform agenda for early childhood education and care across Australia has led to an increased demand for qualified early childhood teachers. In response, universities have developed innovative approaches in delivering early childhood teacher educa tion courses designed to support existing diploma qualified educators to gain their teaching qualifications. One such course at a major Australian University incorporated a flexible multi-modal option of study which included community -based, on line e-learning and face -to- face intensive tutorials. This paper reports on a study examining the outcomes for students undertaking their studies using this course delivery mode. The study sought to examine the students’ perceptions of the efficacy of the teaching and learning approach in meeting their learning needs, and the factors that were most influential in informing these perceptions. The findings indicated that it was the inclusion of contact and a social presence in the online learning environment which was most influential.