A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Sustainability certification of bioethanol: how is it perceived by Brazilian stakeholders?

This paper investigates whether initiatives for sustainability certification of Brazilian ethanol can be expected to stimulate a change among producers toward more sustainable production - and, if so, what those changes would likely be. Connected to this, several questions are raised including whether producers might prefer to target other markets with less stringent demands, and if certification might lead to structural changes in the sector because producers who lack the capacity to meet the new requirements cannot remain competitive. The analysis of interviews with a diverse group of stakeholders under the guidance of the Technological Innovation Systems framework allowed us identify different actions taken by the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol sector in response to requirements of sustainability. The interviewees agreed that sustainability certification is an important element for the expansion of biofuel production in Brazil. Brazilian stakeholders have created a platform for more competitive sustainable production and have initiated relevant processes in response to the development connected to sustainability certification. Yet, the certification activities have had a limited impact in terms of the number of involved stakeholders. But interview responses indicate that the sector may adapt to new certification requirements rather than leave markets where such requirements become established. Structural changes can be expected if certification requirements as they exist in many initiatives are introduced in unflexible ways. The social importance of the ethanol industry is large in Brazil and some adjustments for certification may be required. The paper concludes by suggesting some actions for the industry. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Parameterization and Evaluation of Predictions of DSSAT/CANEGRO for Brazilian Sugarcane

The DSSAT/CANEGRO model was parameterized and its predictions evaluated using data from five sugarcane (Sacchetrum spp.) experiments conducted in southern Brazil. The data used are from two of the most important Brazilian cultivars. Some parameters whose values were either directly measured or considered to be well known were not adjusted. Ten of the 20 parameters were optimized using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) algorithm using the leave-one-out cross-validation technique. Model predictions were evaluated using measured data of leaf area index (LA!), stalk and aerial dry mass, sucrose content, and soil water content, using bias, root mean squared error (RMSE), modeling efficiency (Eff), correlation coefficient, and agreement index. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)/CANEGRO model simulated the sugarcane crop in southern Brazil well, using the parameterization reported here. The soil water content predictions were better for rainfed (mean RMSE = 0.122mm) than for irrigated treatment (mean RMSE = 0.214mm). Predictions were best for aerial dry mass (Eff = 0.850), followed by stalk dry mass (Eff = 0.765) and then sucrose mass (Eff = 0.170). Number of green leaves showed the worst fit (Eff = -2.300). The cross-validation technique permits using multiple datasets that would have limited use if used independently because of the heterogeneity of measures and measurement strategies.

QSAR Modeling of a Set of Pyrazinoate Esters as Antituberculosis Prodrugs

Tuberculosis is an infection caused mainly by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A first-line antimycobacterial drug is pyrazinamide (PZA), which acts partially as a prodrug activated by a pyrazinamidase releasing the active agent, pyrazinoic acid (POA). As pyrazinoic acid presents some difficulty to cross the mycobacterial cell wall, and also the pyrazinamide-resistant strains do not express the pyrazinamidase, a set of pyrazinoic acid esters have been evaluated as antimycobacterial agents. In this work, a QSAR approach was applied to a set of forty-three pyrazinoates against M. tuberculosis ATCC 27294, using genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The independent variables selected were the Balaban index (I), calculated n-octanol/water partition coefficient (ClogP), van-der-Waals surface area, dipole moment, and stretching-energy contribution. The final QSAR model (N = 32, r(2) = 0.68, q(2) = 0.59, LOF = 0.25, and LSE = 0.19) was fully validated employing leave-N-out cross-validation and y-scrambling techniques. The test set (N = 11) presented an external prediction power of 73%. In conclusion, the QSAR model generated can be used as a valuable tool to optimize the activity of future pyrazinoic acid esters in the designing of new antituberculosis agents.

Selection bias in gene extraction on the basis of microarray gene-expression data

In the context of cancer diagnosis and treatment, we consider the problem of constructing an accurate prediction rule on the basis of a relatively small number of tumor tissue samples of known type containing the expression data on very many (possibly thousands) genes. Recently, results have been presented in the literature suggesting that it is possible to construct a prediction rule from only a few genes such that it has a negligible prediction error rate. However, in these results the test error or the leave-one-out cross-validated error is calculated without allowance for the selection bias. There is no allowance because the rule is either tested on tissue samples that were used in the first instance to select the genes being used in the rule or because the cross-validation of the rule is not external to the selection process; that is, gene selection is not performed in training the rule at each stage of the cross-validation process. We describe how in practice the selection bias can be assessed and corrected for by either performing a cross-validation or applying the bootstrap external to the selection process. We recommend using 10-fold rather than leave-one-out cross-validation, and concerning the bootstrap, we suggest using the so-called. 632+ bootstrap error estimate designed to handle overfitted prediction rules. Using two published data sets, we demonstrate that when correction is made for the selection bias, the cross-validated error is no longer zero for a subset of only a few genes.

Closing the gap in curriculum development leadership

“Closing the gap in curriculum development leadership” is a Carrick-funded University of Queensland project which is designed to address two related gaps in current knowledge and in existing professional development programs for academic staff. The first gap is in our knowledge of curriculum and pedagogical issues as they arise in relation to multi-year sequences of study, such as majors in generalist degrees, or core programs in more structured degrees. While there is considerable knowledge of curriculum and pedagogy at the course or individual unit of study level (e.g. Philosophy I), there is very little properly conceptualised, empirically informed knowledge about student learning (and teaching) over, say, a three-year major sequence in a traditional Arts or Sciences subject. The Carrick-funded project aims to (begin to) fill this gap through bottom-up curriculum development projects across the range of UQ’s offerings. The second gap is in our professional development programs and, indeed, in our recognition and support for the people who are in charge of such multi-year sequences of study. The major convener or program coordinator is not as well supported, in Australian and overseas professional development programs, as the lecturer in charge of a single course (or unit of study). Nor is her work likely to be taken account of in workload calculations or for the purposes of promotion and career advancement more generally. The Carrick-funded project aims to fill this gap by developing, in consultation with crucial stakeholders, amendments to existing university policies and practices. The attached documents provide a useful introduction to the project. For more information, please contact Fred D’Agostino at f.dagostino@uq.edu.au.

Challenge or opportunity: can regional training hospitals capitalise on the impending influx of interns?

To the Editor: The increase in medical graduates expected over the next decade presents a huge challenge to the many stakeholders involved in providing their prevocational and vocational medical training. 1 Increased numbers will add significantly to the teaching and supervision workload for registrars and consultants, while specialist training and access to advanced training positions may be compromised. However, this predicament may also provide opportunities for innovation in the way internships are delivered. Although facing these same challenges, regional and rural hospitals could use this situation to enhance their workforce by creating opportunities for interns and junior doctors to acquire valuable experience in non-metropolitan settings. We surveyed a representative sample (n = 147; 52% of total cohort) of Year 3 Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery students at the University of Queensland about their perceptions and expectations of their impending internship and the importance of its location (ie, urban/metropolitan versus regional/rural teaching hospitals) to their future training and career plans. Most students (n = 127; 86%) reported a high degree of contemplation about their internship choice. Issues relating to career progression and support ranked highest in their expectations. Most perceived internships in urban/metropolitan hospitals as more beneficial to their future career prospects compared with regional/rural hospitals, but, interestingly, felt that they would have more patient responsibility and greater contact with and supervision by senior staff in a regional setting (Box). Regional and rural hospitals should try to harness these positive perceptions and act to address any real or perceived shortcomings in order to enhance their future workforce.2 They could look to establish partnerships with rural clinical schools3 to enhance recruitment of interns as early as Year 3. To maximise competitiveness with their urban counterparts, regional and rural hospitals need to offer innovative training and career progression pathways to junior doctors, to combat the perception that internships in urban hospitals are more beneficial to future career prospects. Partnerships between hospitals, medical schools and vocational colleges, with input from postgraduate medical councils, should provide vertical integration4 in the important period between student and doctor. Work is underway to more closely evaluate and compare the intern experience across regional/rural and urban/metropolitan hospitals, and track student experiences and career choices longitudinally. This information may benefit teaching hospitals and help identify the optimal combination of resources necessary to provide quality teaching and a clear career pathway for the expected influx of new interns.

Psychological distress among female sex workers

The prevalence and correlates of psychological distress were examined in a sample of 171 female sex workers in Queensland. It was found that 28 per cent were above the GHQ-28 threshold for mild psychiatric morbidity, a rate that is not appreciably different from that of women in the general community. The sample included only eight street sex workers, all of whom reported significant distress. Logistic regression analyses showed that a history of injecting drug use, an early age at leaving home and wanting to leave the sex industry were independent predictors of poor mental health. Distressed sex workers reported fewer sexual health examinations and less consistent condom use with their clients than those who were not distressed.

Long-term clozapine treatment identifies significant improvements in clinical and functioning scales

The majority of clinical drug trials only cover a small number of variables over a short period of time on a small group of people. The objective of this study was to track a large group of people over a long period of time, using a diverse range of variables with a naturalistic design to assess the ‘real world’ use of clozapine. Fifty-three people with treatment-resistant schizophrenia were recruited into a 2-year study which assessed the subjects using the following scales: Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Clinical Global Impression Scale (CGI), Life Skills Profile (LSP), and Role Functioning Scale (RFS). Discharge, leave, and ward movement rates were also monitored. All subjects were inpatients at a tertiary psychiatric facility. Thirty-three percent of the group was discharged. Seventythree percent moved to less cost-intensive wards, and the leave rate increased by 105”/0. Sixty-seven percent of the study group were identified as responders by the 24-month time point. Twenty-four percent of the group had their CGI scores reduced to 2 or better 0, =O.OOOl). Significant improvements were identified in the RFS (p = 0.02) and LSP (p = 0.0001). Long-term clozapine treatment has identified a significant group of responders on a variety of measures.

International tourists and road safety in Australia: developing a national research and management programme

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of injury death for international tourists. This makes road safety an important issue for tourism authorities. Unfortunately, as it is in other areas of tourist health, the common response from the travel and tourism industry is to remain silent about this problem and to leave any mishaps in the hands of insurers. At the same time, but for different reasons, international tourists are not usually targeted for road safety initiatives by transport authorities. Given that there are considerable 'hidden' costs associated with international tourists and motor vehicle crashes, the topic should be of concern to both tourism and transport groups. This paper examines issues concerned with driving in unfamiliar surroundings for international visitors in Australia, and proposes a national research and management programme to guide policy and planning in the area. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Barriers to equality: men's and women's attitudes to workplace entitlements in Australia

This paper examines attitudes to workplace entitlements, such as parental leave and flexible work hours. Family friendly policies such as leave to care for children have implications for feminist debates about sameness versus difference and the extent to which such policies will lead to greater equality between men and women, or alternatively, further entrench existing gender divisions of labour: Using data from a recent national survey in Australia, the paper shows that while the Australian workforce is generally in favour of workplace entitlements, women are generally more supportive of these kinds of benefits than men. Surprisingly, most respondents are more supportive of unpaid rather than paid parental leave. The results also show that the most important determinants of support for work entitlements are a combination of the extent to which one needs work entitlements and employment location. The results raise issues about whether the provision of workplace entitlements will encourage greater participation by men in domestic responsibilities, or simply ease women's double burden of paid and unpaid work.

The co-segregation of psychosis and selected physical disorders within families of patients with psychosis versus well controls

While it has been reported that individuals with psychosis are at increased or decreased risk of various physical disorders such as cancer and rheumatoid arthritis, there has been less research on the co-segregation of physical disorders within the first-degree relatives of those with psychosis compared to relatives of well controls. The aim of this study was to examine these issues in an epidemiologically informed catchment-area based case-control study. Patients with psychosis were drawn from a prevalence study undertaken as part of the Australian National Mental Health Survey. In addition, we recruited well controls who resided in the same catchment area. For each subject, we drew pedigrees and used a structured checklist to assess the presence of selected psychiatric disorders, and selected disorders such as multiple sclerosis, epilepsy, spina bifida, thyroid disorders, diabetes, asthma and eczema. Data based on pedigrees from 293 individuals with psychosis and 292 well controls was available. As expected, the odds of havingschizophrenia and affective disorders were significantly increased in the families of cases versus controls. The odds of havingeczema were significantly reduced in the relatives of those with psychosis. All other disorders occurred with equal frequency in cases versus control pedigrees. Current theories of eczema suggest that an absence of early life exposure to antigens and infectious agents may fail to prime the na¨ıve immune system, and leave the person at increased risk of eczema. The results of this study suggest that genetic andror environmental factors that facilitate psychosis may protect against eczema. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Rifampicin determination in plasma by stir bar-sorptive extraction and liquid chromatography

A sensitive and reproducible stir bar-sorptive extraction and high performance liquid chromatography-UV detection (SBSE/HPLC-UV) method for therapeutic drug monitoring of rifampicin in plasma samples is described and compared with a liquid:liquid extraction (LLE/HPLC-UV) method. This miniaturized method can result in faster analysis, higher sample throughput, lower solvent consumption and less workload per sample while maintaining or even improving sensitivity. Important factors in the optimization of SBSE efficiency such as pH, temperature, extraction time and desorption conditions (solvents, mode magnetic stir, mode ultrasonic stir, time and number of steps) were optimized recoveries ranging from 75 to 80%. Separation was obtained using a reverse phase C(8) column with UV detection (254 nm). The mobile phase consisted of methanol:0.25 N sodium acetate buffer, pH 5.0 (58:42, v/v). The SBSE/HPLC-UV method was linear over a working range of 0.125-50.0 mu g mL(-1). The intra-assay and inter-assay precision and accuracy were studied at three concentrations (1.25, 6.25 and 25.0 mu g mL(-1)). The intra-assay coefficients of variation (CVs) for all compounds were less than 10% and all inter-CVs were less than 10%. Limits of quantification were 0.125 mu g mL(-1). Stability studies showed rifampicin was stable in plasma for 12 h after thawing; the samples were also stable for 24 h after preparation. Based on the figures of merit results, the SBSE/HPLC-UV proved to be adequate to the rifampicin analyses from therapeutic to toxic levels. This method was successfully applied to the analysis of real samples and was as effective as the LLE/HPLC-UV method. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surgical caseload and outcomes for women with invasive breast cancer treated in Western Australia

We have assessed the outcomes for all women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in Western Australia during 1989, 1994 and 1999, and compared the results for surgeons who treat 20 or more cases per year with those of surgeons who treat less. Women treated by high caseload surgeons were more likely to retain their breast (53.3% vs. 36.7%, p < 0.001), have adjuvant radiotherapy (50.0% vs. 30.6%, p < 0.001), and be alive after 4 years (1989, 86% vs. 82%; 1994, 89% vs. 84%; 1999, 90% vs. 79%, HR 0.71, p = 0.03). Adjusting for age and year of diagnosis, women were not more likely to be treated with adjuvant chemotherapy (29.2% vs. 20.9%, p = 0.28). In 1989 35% of women were treated by high caseload surgeons. By 1999 this had risen to 82%. The results confirm that women treated by high caseload surgeons have better outcomes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An ergonomic approach to reorganize parking inspection agents` work productivity, health and safety in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective: The Traffic Engineering Company of the City of Sao Paulo (Brazil) observed a decrease in productivity, and an increase in sick leave, accidents and psychological distress among their parking inspection agents. To document this situation, qualitative research was undertaken to obtain an in-depth comprehension of work activity. Participants: Workers, managers and health and safety professionals contributed to the documentation of the problem and to the proposal of possible solutions. Methods: Ergonomic work analysis focusing on real work activity, as well as interviews with individual or groups of stakeholders, were conducted. Results: This research revealed that political-economic factors gradually contributed to: 1) an increasing work load; 2) growing fatigue throughout the day, increasing the workers` vulnerability to incidents and accidents and their tendency to react inappropriately to violence experienced on the street; and 3) excessive individual responsibility to manage dangerous situations. Conclusions: Recommendations to ameliorate the situation are proposed. These suggestions are discussed in terms of feasibility given the impact of macro social factors upon micro work activity, and the associated potential expansion of the ergonomist`s role.