Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Supporting English language teachers doing further degrees at a distance:a web based strategy researched

This thesis explores how the world-wide-web can be used to support English language teachers doing further studies at a distance. The future of education worldwide is moving towards a requirement that we, as teacher educators, use the latest web technology not as a gambit, but as a viable tool to improve learning. By examining the literature on knowledge, teacher education and web training, a model of teacher knowledge development, along with statements of advice for web developers based upon the model are developed. Next, the applicability and viability of both the model and statements of advice are examined by developing a teacher support site (bttp://www. philseflsupport. com) according to these principles. The data collected from one focus group of users from sixteen different countries, all studying on the same distance Masters programme, is then analysed in depth. The outcomes from the research are threefold: A functioning website that is averaging around 15, 000 hits a month provides a professional contribution. An expanded model of teacher knowledge development that is based upon five theoretical principles that reflect the ever-expanding cyclical nature of teacher learning provides an academic contribution. A series of six statements of advice for developers of teacher support sites. These statements are grounded in the theoretical principles behind the model of teacher knowledge development and incorporate nine keys to effective web facilitation. Taken together, they provide a forward-looking contribution to the praxis of web supported teacher education, and thus to the potential dissemination of the research presented here. The research has succeeded in reducing the proliferation of terminology in teacher knowledge into a succinct model of teacher knowledge development. The model may now be used to further our understanding of how teachers learn and develop as other research builds upon the individual study here. NB: Appendix 4 is only available only available for consultation at Aston University Library with prior arrangement.

Towards a web-based progressive handwriting recognition environment for mathematical problem solving

The emergence of pen-based mobile devices such as PDAs and tablet PCs provides a new way to input mathematical expressions to computer by using handwriting which is much more natural and efficient for entering mathematics. This paper proposes a web-based handwriting mathematics system, called WebMath, for supporting mathematical problem solving. The proposed WebMath system is based on client-server architecture. It comprises four major components: a standard web server, handwriting mathematical expression editor, computation engine and web browser with Ajax-based communicator. The handwriting mathematical expression editor adopts a progressive recognition approach for dynamic recognition of handwritten mathematical expressions. The computation engine supports mathematical functions such as algebraic simplification and factorization, and integration and differentiation. The web browser provides a user-friendly interface for accessing the system using advanced Ajax-based communication. In this paper, we describe the different components of the WebMath system and its performance analysis.

An assessment of web-based textbook supplementary material to support student learning

There is an increasing trend by publishers to provide supplementary learning materials with text books in order to improve the learning experience and thus ultimately improve text book sales. This study will aim to establish the use of these materials and their relevance to students in terms of supporting student learning. The materials include multiple choice test banks, animated demonstrations, simulations, quizzes and electronic versions of the text. The study will focus on the extensive library of web-based learning materials available on the ‘WileyPlus’ web platform which accompanies the textbook ‘Operations Management’, 2nd edition authored by A. Greasley and published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Evaluating the impact of a web-based resource on student learning

This paper reports on an experiment of using a publisher provided web-based resource to make available a series of optional practice quizzes and other supplementary material to all students taking a first year introductory microeconomics module. The empirical analysis evaluates the impact these supplementary resources had on student learning. First, we investigate which students decided to make use of the resources. Then, we analyse the impact this decision has on their subsequent performance in the examination at the end of the module. The results show that, even after taking into account the possibility of self-selection bias, using the web-based resource had a significant positive effect on student learning.

A paradigm sensitive perspective on the ranking of accounting journals:a web-based survey approach

This paper reports the results of a web-based study of the perceptions of accounting journals in Australasia. Journal ranking studies have generally adopted citation techniques or used academics’ perceptions as the basis for assessing journal quality. Our research contributes to the existing literature by conducting a survey of academics in Australasia using a web-based instrument. The analysis indicates that the perceptions of the so-called “elite” accounting journals have become unsettled. The research highlights the emergence of more recent, alternative paradigm journals (CPA and AAAJ) as both highly ranking.

Web-Based Information Systems in the Stock Market Financial Information Domain

The information domain is a recognised sphere for the influence, ownership, and control of information and it's specifications, format, exploitation and explanation (Thompson, 1967). The article presents a description of the financial information domain issues related to the organisation and operation of a stock market. We review the strategic, institutional and standards dimensions of the stock market information domain in relation to the current semantic web knowledge and how and whether this could be used in modern web based stock market information systems to provide the quality of information that their stakeholders want. The analysis is based on the FINE model (Blanas, 2003). The analysis leads to a number of research questions for future research.

Web-based Simultaneous Equation Solver

* This work has been supported by NIMP, University of Plovdiv under contract No MU-1.

AstroWeb – A Graphical Representation of an Astronomical WFPDB Database Using a Web-Based Open Source Geographical Information System

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.5.2, H.2.8, J.2, H.5.3.

Linking design and manufacturing domains via web-based and enterprise integration technologies

The manufacturing industry faces many challenges such as reducing time-to-market and cutting costs. In order to meet these increasing demands, effective methods are need to support the early product development stages by bridging the gap of communicating early design ideas and the evaluation of manufacturing performance. This paper introduces methods of linking design and manufacturing domains using disparate technologies. The combined technologies include knowledge management supporting for product lifecycle management systems, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, aggregate process planning systems, workflow management and data exchange formats. A case study has been used to demonstrate the use of these technologies, illustrated by adding manufacturing knowledge to generate alternative early process plan which are in turn used by an ERP system to obtain and optimise a rough-cut capacity plan. Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.