Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

Radiographic total disc replacement angle measurement accuracy using the Oxford Cobbometer: precision and bias.

Total disc replacement (TDR) clinical success has been reported to be related to the residual motion of the operated level. Thus, accurate measurement of TDR range of motion (ROM) is of utmost importance. One commonly used tool in measuring ROM is the Oxford Cobbometer. Little is known however on its accuracy (precision and bias) in measuring TDR angles. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the Cobbometer to accurately measure radiographic TDR angles. An anatomically accurate synthetic L4-L5 motion segment was instrumented with a CHARITE artificial disc. The TDR angle and anatomical position between L4 and L5 was fixed to prohibit motion while the motion segment was radiographically imaged in various degrees of rotation and elevation, representing a sample of possible patient placement positions. An experienced observer made ten readings of the TDR angle using the Cobbometer at each different position. The Cobbometer readings were analyzed to determine measurement accuracy at each position. Furthermore, analysis of variance was used to study rotation and elevation of the motion segment as treatment factors. Cobbometer TDR angle measurements were most accurate (highest precision and lowest bias) at the centered position (95.5%), which placed the TDR directly inline with the x-ray beam source without any rotation. In contrast, the lowest accuracy (75.2%) was observed in the most rotated and off-centered view. A difference as high as 4 degrees between readings at any individual position, and as high as 6 degrees between all the positions was observed. Furthermore, the Cobbometer was unable to detect the expected trend in TDR angle projection with changing position. Although the Cobbometer has been reported to be reliable in different clinical applications, it lacks the needed accuracy to measure TDR angles and ROM. More accurate ROM measurement methods need to be developed to help surgeons and researchers assess radiological success of TDRs.

Quantifying Accuracy Improvement in Sets of Pooled Judgments: Does Dialectical Bootstrapping Work?

Galton (1907) first demonstrated the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon by averaging independent estimates of unknown quantities given by many individuals. Herzog and Hertwig (2009; hereafter H&H in Psychological Science) showed that individuals' own estimates can be improved by asking them to make two estimates at separate times and averaging them. H&H claimed to observe far greater improvement in accuracy when participants received "dialectical" instructions to consider why their first estimate might be wrong before making their second estimates than when they received standard instructions. We reanalyzed H&H's data using measures of accuracy that are unrelated to the frequency of identical first and second responses and found that participants in both conditions improved their accuracy to an equal degree.

Accuracy and predictability in use of AO three-dimensionally preformed titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital reconstruction: a pilot study.

The aim of this study was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy and predictability of new three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction.We analyzed the preoperative and postoperative clinical and radiologic data of 10 patients with isolated blow-out orbital fractures. Fracture locations were as follows: floor (N = 7; 70%), medial wall (N = 1; 1%), and floor/medial wall (N = 2; 2%). The floor fractures were exposed by a standard transconjunctival approach, whereas a combined transcaruncular transconjunctival approach was used in patients with medial wall fractures. A three-dimensional preformed AO titanium mesh plate (0.4 mm in thickness) was selected according to the size of the defect previously measured on the preoperative computed tomographic (CT) scan examination and fixed at the inferior orbital rim with 1 or 2 screws. The accuracy of plate positioning of the reconstructed orbit was assessed on the postoperative CT scan. Coronal CT scan slices were used to measure bony orbital volume using OsiriX Medical Image software. Reconstructed versus uninjured orbital volume were statistically correlated.Nine patients (90%) had a successful treatment outcome without complications. One patient (10%) developed a mechanical limitation of upward gaze with a resulting handicapping diplopia requiring hardware removal. Postoperative orbital CT scan showed an anatomic three-dimensional placement of the orbital mesh plates in all of the patients. Volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 2.5 cm(3). There was no significant difference in volume between the reconstructed and uninjured orbits.This preliminary study has demonstrated that three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction results in (1) a high rate of success with an acceptable rate of major clinical complications (10%) and (2) an anatomic restoration of the bony orbital contour and volume that closely approximates that of the contralateral uninjured orbit.

Accuracy of out-of-field dose calculation of tomotherapy and cyberknife treatment planning systems: A dosimetric study.

PURPOSE: Late toxicities such as second cancer induction become more important as treatment outcome improves. Often the dose distribution calculated with a commercial treatment planning system (TPS) is used to estimate radiation carcinogenesis for the radiotherapy patient. However, for locations beyond the treatment field borders, the accuracy is not well known. The aim of this study was to perform detailed out-of-field-measurements for a typical radiotherapy treatment plan administered with a Cyberknife and a Tomotherapy machine and to compare the measurements to the predictions of the TPS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Individually calibrated thermoluminescent dosimeters were used to measure absorbed dose in an anthropomorphic phantom at 184 locations. The measured dose distributions from 6 MV intensity-modulated treatment beams for CyberKnife and TomoTherapy machines were compared to the dose calculations from the TPS. RESULTS: The TPS are underestimating the dose far away from the target volume. Quantitatively the Cyberknife underestimates the dose at 40cm from the PTV border by a factor of 60, the Tomotherapy TPS by a factor of two. If a 50% dose uncertainty is accepted, the Cyberknife TPS can predict doses down to approximately 10 mGy/treatment Gy, the Tomotherapy-TPS down to 0.75 mGy/treatment Gy. The Cyberknife TPS can then be used up to 10cm from the PTV border the Tomotherapy up to 35cm. CONCLUSIONS: We determined that the Cyberknife and Tomotherapy TPS underestimate substantially the doses far away from the treated volume. It is recommended not to use out-of-field doses from the Cyberknife TPS for applications like modeling of second cancer induction. The Tomotherapy TPS can be used up to 35cm from the PTV border (for a 390 cm(3) large PTV).

Efectivitat dels diferents tipus de colpeig a pilota aturada en el futbol platja

El propòsit d’aquest estudi és analitzar quin és l’índex d’efectivitat en diferents situacions a pilota aturada (penals, faltes sense barrera i córners) en el futbol platja dins el context d’equips amateurs que participen en els tornejos de Blanes i Tossa de Mar. A l’hora de realitzar-lo he tingut en compte una sèrie de variables, com ara la precisió del colpeig, el tipus de colpeig, la superfície de contacte o la situació inicial de la pilota, és a dir, des d’on provenia la trajectòria inicial d’ aquesta, tot comprovant també com canvien els resultats en funció de la zona i del costat que es realitza el remat. Respecte els resultats, aquests demostren que l’índex d’efectivitat en aquest tipus d’accions és més baix en relació amb altres esports semblants com el futbol i el futbol sala.

Accuracy profile validation of a new analytical method for propane measurement using headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

Propane can be responsible for several types of lethal intoxication and explosions. Quantifying it would be very helpful to determine in some cases the cause of death. Some gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) methods of propane measurements do already exist. The main drawback of these GC-MS methods described in the literature is the absence of a specific propane internal standard necessary for accurate quantitative analysis. The main outcome of the following study was to provide an innovative Headspace-GC-MS method (HS-GC-MS) applicable to the routine determination of propane concentration in forensic toxicology laboratories. To date, no stable isotope of propane is commercially available. The development of an in situ generation of standards is thus presented. An internal-labeled standard gas (C3DH7) is generated in situ by the stoichiometric formation of propane by the reaction of deuterated water (D2O) with Grignard reagent propylmagnesium chloride (C3H7MgCl). The method aims to use this internal standard to quantify propane concentrations and, therefore, to obtain precise measurements. Consequently, a complete validation with an accuracy profile according to two different guidelines, the French Society of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Techniques (SFSTP) and the Gesellschaft für toxikologische und Forensische Chemie (GTFCh), is presented.

Improving the Accuracy of Camber Predictions for Precast Pretensioned Concrete Beams, TR-625, 2015

The discrepancies between the designed and measured camber of precast pretensioned concrete beams (PPCBs) observed by the Iowa DOT have created challenges in the field during bridge construction, causing construction delays and additional costs. This study was undertaken to systematically identify the potential sources of discrepancies between the designed and measured camber from release to time of erection and improve the accuracy of camber estimations in order to minimize the associated problems in the field. To successfully accomplish the project objectives, engineering properties, including creep and shrinkage, of three normal concrete and four high-performance concrete mix designs were characterized. In parallel, another task focused on identifying the instantaneous camber and the variables affecting the instantaneous camber and evaluated the corresponding impact of this factor using more than 100 PPCBs. Using a combination of finite element analyses and the time-step method, the long-term camber was estimated for 66 PPCBs, with due consideration given to creep and shrinkage of concrete, changes in support location and prestress force, and the thermal effects. Utilizing the outcomes of the project, suitable long-term camber multipliers were developed that account for the time-dependent behavior, including the thermal effects. It is shown that by using the recommended practice for the camber measurements together with the proposed multipliers, the accuracy of camber prediction will be greatly improved. Consequently, it is expected that future bridge projects in Iowa can minimize construction challenges resulting from large discrepancies between the designed and actual camber of PPCBs during construction.

Effect of data acquisition accuracy on timing of stand harvests and expected net present value

Abstract

Visuospatial working memory deficits and visual pursuit impairments are not directly related in schizophrenia.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with schizophrenia show deficits in visuospatial working memory and visual pursuit processes. It is currently unclear, however, whether both impairments are related to a common neuropathological origin. The purpose of the present study was therefore to examine the possible relations between the encoding and the discrimination of dynamic visuospatial stimuli in schizophrenia. METHOD: Sixteen outpatients with schizophrenia and 16 control subjects were asked to encode complex disc displacements presented on a screen. After a delay, participants had to identify the previously presented disc trajectory from a choice of six static linear paths, among which were five incorrect paths. The precision of visual pursuit eye movements during the initial presentation of the dynamic stimulus was assessed. The fixations and scanning time in definite regions of the six paths presented during the discrimination phase were investigated. RESULTS: In comparison with controls, patients showed poorer task performance, reduced pursuit accuracy during incorrect trials and less time scanning the correct stimulus or the incorrect paths approximating its global structure. Patients also spent less time scanning the leftmost portion of the correct path even when making a correct choice. The accuracy of visual pursuit and head movements, however, was not correlated with task performance. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides direct support for the hypothesis that active integration of visuospatial information within working memory is deficient in schizophrenia. In contrast, a general impairment of oculomotor mechanisms involved in smooth pursuit did not appear to be directly related to lower visuospatial working memory performance in schizophrenia.

Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

Towards a diffusion image processing validation and accuracy prediction framework

Validation is the main bottleneck preventing theadoption of many medical image processing algorithms inthe clinical practice. In the classical approach,a-posteriori analysis is performed based on someobjective metrics. In this work, a different approachbased on Petri Nets (PN) is proposed. The basic ideaconsists in predicting the accuracy that will result froma given processing based on the characterization of thesources of inaccuracy of the system. Here we propose aproof of concept in the scenario of a diffusion imaginganalysis pipeline. A PN is built after the detection ofthe possible sources of inaccuracy. By integrating thefirst qualitative insights based on the PN withquantitative measures, it is possible to optimize the PNitself, to predict the inaccuracy of the system in adifferent setting. Results show that the proposed modelprovides a good prediction performance and suggests theoptimal processing approach.

Pre-stimulus beta oscillations within left posterior sylvian regions impact auditory temporal order judgment accuracy.

Both neural and behavioral responses to stimuli are influenced by the state of the brain immediately preceding their presentation, notably by pre-stimulus oscillatory activity. Using frequency analysis of high-density electroencephalogram coupled with source estimations, the present study investigated the role of pre-stimulus oscillatory activity in auditory spatial temporal order judgments (TOJ). Oscillations within the beta range (i.e. 18-23Hz) were significantly stronger before accurate than inaccurate TOJ trials. Distributed source estimations identified bilateral posterior sylvian regions as the principal contributors to pre-stimulus beta oscillations. Activity within the left posterior sylvian region was significantly stronger before accurate than inaccurate TOJ trials. We discuss our results in terms of a modulation of sensory gating mechanisms mediated by beta activity.

Accuracy profile validation of a new analytical method for butane measurement using headspace-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.

The aim of our study was to provide an innovative HS-GC/MS method applicable to the routine determination of butane concentration in forensic toxicology laboratories. The main drawback of the GC/MS methods discussed in literature concerning butane measurement was the absence of a specific butane internal standard necessary to perform quantification. Because no stable isotope of butane is commercially available, it is essential to develop a new approach by an in situ generation of standards. To avoid the manipulation of a stable isotope-labelled gas, we have chosen to generate in situ an internal labelled standard gas (C(4)H(9)D) following the basis of the stoichiometric formation of butane by the reaction of deuterated water (D(2)O) with Grignard reagent butylmagnesium chloride (C(4)H(9)MgCl). This method allows a precise measurement of butane concentration and therefore, a full validation by accuracy profile was presented.