Topics in financial econometrics

In the first chapter, we consider the joint estimation of objective and risk-neutral parameters for SV option pricing models. We propose a strategy which exploits the information contained in large heterogeneous panels of options, and we apply it to S&P 500 index and index call options data. Our approach breaks the stochastic singularity between contemporaneous option prices by assuming that every observation is affected by measurement error. We evaluate the likelihood function by using a MC-IS strategy combined with a Particle Filter algorithm. The second chapter examines the impact of different categories of traders on market transactions. We estimate a model which takes into account traders’ identities at the transaction level, and we find that the stock prices follow the direction of institutional trading. These results are carried out with data from an anonymous market. To explain our estimates, we examine the informativeness of a wide set of market variables and we find that most of them are unambiguously significant to infer the identity of traders. The third chapter investigates the relationship between the categories of market traders and three definitions of financial durations. We consider trade, price and volume durations, and we adopt a Log-ACD model where we include information on traders at the transaction level. As to trade durations, we observe an increase of the trading frequency when informed traders and the liquidity provider intensify their presence in the market. For price and volume durations, we find the same effect to depend on the state of the market activity. The fourth chapter proposes a strategy to express order aggressiveness in quantitative terms. We consider a simultaneous equation model to examine price and volume aggressiveness at Euronext Paris, and we analyse the impact of a wide set of order book variables on the price-quantity decision.

Iva e Pubblica Autorità: coerenza del sistema e dimensioni nazionali

Il sistema comune europeo dell’imposta sul valore aggiunto privilegia caratteri e finalità economiche nel definire chi siano gli operatori economici soggetti all’IVA. Una disciplina particolare è, tuttavia, prevista per i soggetti di diritto pubblico che, oltre alla principale attività istituzionale, esercitano un’attività di carattere economico. Ai sensi dell’articolo 13 della Direttiva del 28 novembre 2006, 2006/112/CE, gli Stati, le Regioni, le Province, i Comuni e gli altri enti di diritto pubblico, in relazione alle attività ed operazioni che essi effettuano in quanto pubbliche autorità, non sono considerati soggetti passivi IVA anche se in relazione ad esse percepiscono diritti, canoni, contributi o retribuzioni. La vigente disciplina europea delle attività economiche esercitate dagli enti pubblici, oltre che inadeguata al contesto economico attuale, rischia di diventare un fattore che influenza negativamente l’efficacia del modello impositivo dell’IVA e l’agire degli enti pubblici. La tesi propone un modello alternativo che prevede l’inversione dell’impostazione attuale della Direttiva IVA al fine di considerare, di regola, soggetti passivi IVA gli organismi pubblici che svolgono - ancorché nella veste di pubblica autorità - attività oggettivamente economiche.

Essays on Asset Trade

The overreaching methodology of my Ph.D. thesis is to substitute noise traders with rational traders. I do so by considering liquidity asymmetry between informed trader and uninformed traders. Liquidity asymmetry creates a motive for trade. Under this new setup, I study the impact of asset trade on the real economy, represented by a firm with an investment opportunity, in chapter 1 ("Efficient Asset Trade - A Model with Asymmetric Information and Asymmetric Liquidity Needs"). I find conditions for which asset trade leads to inefficient investment. Chapter 2 ("(In)Efficient Asset Trade and a Rationale for a Tobin Tax") characterizes a tax which can restore efficient investment. In chapter 3, I show that finitely repeated trade, as in Kyle (1985) and Ostrovsky (2012), does not necessarily lead to information revelation if traders are fully rational.

Le partecipazioni azionarie degli enti locali tra dismissione ed esigenze di governo dei servizi pubblici

La ricerca indaga le relazioni che si sono instaurate nel corso degli anni tra il principio di legalità, inteso nella sua declinazione di principio di funzionalizzazione, e principio di concorrenza nell’ambito delle società per la gestione dei servizi pubblici locali. Più precisamente, lo scopo del lavoro è valutare le evoluzioni di tale rapporto, dal momento in cui gli enti locali sono stati ufficialmente autorizzati a costituire società per la gestione dei servizi pubblici locali nel 1990. Lo stimolo a sviluppare queste considerazioni trova la sua ragione nelle pressioni provenienti dalle istituzioni europee, che hanno gradualmente imposto una qualificazione prettamente economica ai servizi a favore della collettività, ritenuti un ambito in cui possa naturalmente imporsi una competizione economica tra operatori economici, indipendentemente dalla loro natura giuridica. Il problema del vincolo funzionale nella partecipazione in società degli enti locali è certamente l’oggetto principale del lavoro. Tuttavia, la questione non può essere analizzata separatamente dalle politiche di dismissione promosse dal legislatore nell’ultimo decennio. L’obiettivo principale delle riforme avviate è stato quello di frenare la proliferazione di società costituite dagli enti locali, così da garantire sia un risparmio di risorse pubbliche sia una maggiore facilità per gli imprenditori privati ad affacciarsi su mercati tradizionalmente appannaggio delle amministrazioni. Stona però con le intenzioni il fatto che gli obblighi ex lege di cessione delle partecipazioni azionarie detenute dagli enti locali non siano stati generalmente imposti per le società di gestione dei servizi pubblici (resi in favore della collettività), bensì per quelle che svolgono servizi strumentali (in favore dell’amministrazione stessa). La scelta appare contraddittoria, in quanto il distacco tra vincolo funzionale e partecipazione degli enti locali nella compagine societaria si ravvisa in particolar modo nel primo dei due moduli menzionati. Si assiste dunque ad una frammentazione del principio di legalità.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Reputation Formation and the Evolution of Cooperation in Anonymous Online Markets

Theoretical propositions stressing the importance of trust, reciprocity, and reputation for cooperation in social exchange relations are deeply rooted in classical sociological thought. Today’s online markets provide a unique opportunity to test these theories using unobtrusive data. Our study investigates the mechanisms promoting cooperation in an online-auction market where most transactions can be conceived as one-time-only exchanges. We first give a systematic account of the theoretical arguments explaining the process of cooperative transactions. Then, using a large dataset comprising 14,627 mobile phone auctions and 339,517 DVD auctions, we test key hypotheses about the effects of traders’ reputations on auction outcomes and traders’ motives for leaving feedback. Our statistical analyses show that sellers with better reputations have higher sales and obtain higher prices. Furthermore, we observe a high rate of participation in the feedback system, which is largely consistent with strong reciprocity—a predisposition to unconditionally reward (or punish) one’s interaction partner’s cooperation (or defection)—and altruism—a predisposition to increase one’s own utility by elevating an interaction partner’s utility. Our study demonstrates how strong reciprocity and altruism can mitigate the free-rider problem in the feedback system to create reputational incentives for mutually beneficial online trade.

Adaptation to Changes in the Coffee Value Chain and the Price of Coiffee among Coffee Producers in Two Villages in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Market liberalization in Tanzania has eroded the monopoly of the cooperative unions by allowing private coffee buyers (PCBs) to compete with them on equal footing. Similarly, farmers groups and primary societies are now allowed to sell coffee at auction. Thus, farmers have various options for selling their coffee. Similarly, the coffee industry has experienced large fluctuations in prices and stagnation in production. How do farmers react to these changes? Can and do farmers profit from different market conditions and sell to different traders at the lower end of the value chain, or do they remain with cooperatives or farmers groups? This study was conducted in Mruwia and Mshiri villages in Moshi Rural district. Whereas Mshiri village remains attached to the Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union (KNCU), Mruwia has detached from this organization and sells coffee independently. The sample (103) was randomly selected from the coffee farmers in the two villages. Data were collected through surveys, focus group discussions (FGDs), and socio-anthropological methods (participant-observation, biographies, and thematic interviews). Results indicate that the selection of whom to sell coffee depends largely on farmers’ dependence on coffee and prices, other benefits accrued, and whether the initial costs are covered by buyers. Additionally, most respondents did not sell coffee to PCBs. Thus, prices, the institutional infrastructure, and the structure of local communities were important when making decisions about how and with whom to trade.

Ethiopia's Food Reserve Policies and Practice

Ethiopia has for a long time been one of the world’s most food-insecure countries. Efforts by the government and a multitude of sponsors including NGOs have developed an array of institutions and instruments to mitigate the negative impact of production and supply disruptions. Public stockpiles are one such tool, the use of which is rapidly increasing worldwide. This brief field study examines the Ethiopian policies and practice in context, including various instruments operated by farmers, processors and traders. The study finds that the multiple objectives assigned to food reserves as well as the present management structure may not be well-suited at a time of high world market prices and when international food aid is dwindling, and as the international regulatory trade and investment environment remains a matter of unfinished business from a global food security perspective. A comprehensive study of various options for improvements would lay out policy alternatives for public authorities and stakeholders.

Instituciones territoriales, orden público y una ciudadanía en construcción : El Estado nacional y la formación de la Pampa Central (1884-1922)

La obra vincula las instituciones, el orden público y la construcción de una ciudadanía en la Pampa Central con la extensión de propiedades de construcción del Estado que el gobierno federal intentaba concretar en los territorios nacionales -fines del siglo XIX-. Se analizan las instituciones, su constitución, funcionamiento e inconvenientes. Se reconstruyen las relaciones de la incipiente sociedad civil que estaba adquiriendo rasgos de "ciudadanía", pese a la limitación del derecho a la soberanía y representación política, por cuya razón se abocó al reducido poder local, a la conversión del Territorio en provincia y a la presión sobre las instituciones del Estado. Ciertos sectores sociales -vecinos propietarios- participaron en el poder y pudieron incidir en la disposición de un determinado orden público. Se descubre este entramado a través de la cuestión política, la constitución de la esfera pública, el papel de la prensa, y el accionar de sectores gubernamentales y particulares, especialmente en los conflictos sociales. Estas cuestiones se analizan con mayor profundidad en el estudio particular de una institución: la justicia letrada nacional con marcado poder en el Territorio. Se demuestra que esta institución ejerció un papel importante en la extensión de las propiedades que caracterizaron la construcción y consolidación del Estado. El protagonismo judicial a nivel nacional tuvo su correlación en el poder de los jueces y de los juzgados letrados territoriales, basado en: el carácter nacional de estos tribunales, el perfil profesional de sus miembros, una red social y política de los magistrados a nivel nacional y, la debilidad de las demás instituciones del Territorio. Este poder era reconocido y consolidado por la prensa y los vecinos -propietarios, comerciantes y profesionales- interesados en jerarquizar el papel de la justicia.

"Pues doy Fe de que son tenidos como tales" : Prácticas y discursos legitimantes en el intento de conformación de una posible nobleza rioplatense

A mediados del siglo XVIII los grandes comerciantes de distintos espacios hispanoamericanos, acumulan suficientes caudales que les permiten comprar títulos de nobleza, distinciones o formar mayorazgos que relumbren sus nombres y perpetúen sus bienes adquiridos. Este proceso es mayormente evidente en los espacios mexicanos y peruanos; pero no se conocen casos concretos para el espacio rioplatense. Como planteó José Torre Revello, esto no implica que los comerciantes rioplatenses no intentasen ennoblecerse. El presente estudio de caso detalla como Don Vicente de Azcuénaga intenta fundar un mayorazgo en la ciudad de Buenos Aires a favor de su primogénito Miguel. A través de este estudio basado en las "probanzas" se puede observar como la familia Azcuénaga pretende resaltar su nombre frente al resto de sus contemporáneos, pero las relaciones entre padre e hijo nos conducen a la vez a replantearnos interrogantes referentes a las tradiciones de acumulación y conservación de patrimonios

Comerciantes en conflicto. La Independencia en el Perú y la transformación de la elite mercantil 1780-1830

Durante la época colonial, los grandes comerciantes en el Perú se comportaron como un grupo muy dinámico que desarrollaron importantes negocios en el área de la comercialización y se dedicaron, además, a prestar dinero al gobierno de turno. El presente trabajo tiene por objetivo, identificar los conflictos que se suscitaron por la guerra de Independencia y cómo la elite mercantil fue transformándose con la llegada de comerciantes extranjeros, que se instalaron en Lima al ver esta plaza interesante para la expansión de sus actividades. Veremos también algunos estudios de casos, especialmente comerciantes extranjeros que nos permitirán analizar la dinámica empresarial de los mismos

El Resguardo de Buenos Aires en 1817. Noticias sobre el comercio de importación y exportación

A través del estudio del libro del Resguardo de Buenos Aires, es posible obtener una interesante información sobre el comercio de exportación e importación como el realizado por cabotaje mayor y menor; también aparecen los nombres de muchos comerciantes, nacionales y extranjeros, varios de ellos poco conocidos. Algunos, los más importantes, aparecen en numerosas operaciones en tanto que otros, comerciantes eventuales, lo hacen ocasionalmente y en ventas de escasa importancia. También es posible obtener información relativa al tipo y origen de las naves utilizadas tanto en el comercio ultramarino como en el comercio de cabotaje como asimismo las que realizaban el servicio de puerto; el tiempo en que los barcos permanecían en aquel como el volumen de los bienes traficados entre febrero y agosto de 1817.

Comerciantes en Río de la Plata pre-virreinal. El caso de Domingo de Basavilbaso

El propósito de este texto es presentar a uno de los comerciantes más exitosos de mediados del siglo XVIII en la región Río de la Plata y una aproximación al conjunto del cual emerge. La imagen de grupo se obtiene a partir de los registros de navíos españoles, que permiten realizar un estudio pormenorizado de la participación de los individuos en los envíos a España. Al mismo tiempo, y para acercarme más a uno de los individuos en particular y su primer círculo de relaciones se utiliza, además de los registros, la bibliografía disponible y la batería habitual de fuentes consultadas en las investigaciones sobre comerciantes

Comercio rural en la campaña bonaerense. Un estudio de caso: Casa de Comercio "El Progreso" de los Hnos. Vulcano (1922-1932)

Este trabajo tiene por objeto un primer acercamiento al estudio del comercio rural en la campaña bonaerense en las primeras décadas del siglo XX. Partimos de un análisis previo de la historiografía existente sobre comercio y comerciantes, así como de los principales conceptos y categorías que nos permiten comenzar a pensar el problema. Por último, presentamos algunos avances de nuestra investigación centrada en un estudio de caso, la casa de comercio "El Progreso" (propiedad de José y Francisco Vulcano) ubicada en la estación Gardey (Partido de Tandil), especialmente algunas reflexiones sobre la constitución de su espacio comercial, y algunos rasgos de la relación comerciante/cliente en el período estudiado (1922-1934).

Una justicia corporativa : Saberes, prácticas y estrategias judiciales hacia el interior del Tribunal del Consulado de Buenos Aires (1794-1821)

El presente artículo tiene como objetivo analizar algunos de los saberes, las prácticas y las estrategias judiciales que distintos comerciantes pusieron en juego dentro del fuero consular. Estos provenían en buena medida de la propia actividad comercial, por lo que los consideramos como una extensión de su función económica como comerciantes. Tomaremos aquí las trayectorias de dos comerciantes porteños de reconocimiento en la plaza porteña, que ocuparon, en distintos momentos, cargos de importancia dentro del Consulado porteño. Asimismo, mostraremos quiénes son sus oponentes en los pleitos citados y detallaremos las características que asumen los conflictos en cada caso