Dung and nest surveys: estimating decay rates

1. Wildlife managers often require estimates of abundance. Direct methods of estimation are often impractical, especially in closed-forest environments, so indirect methods such as dung or nest surveys are increasingly popular. 2. Dung and nest surveys typically have three elements: surveys to estimate abundance of the dung or nests; experiments to estimate the production (defecation or nest construction) rate; and experiments to estimate the decay or disappearance rate. The last of these is usually the most problematic, and was the subject of this study. 3. The design of experiments to allow robust estimation of mean time to decay was addressed. In most studies to date, dung or nests have been monitored until they disappear. Instead, we advocate that fresh dung or nests are located, with a single follow-up visit to establish whether the dung or nest is still present or has decayed. 4. Logistic regression was used to estimate probability of decay as a function of time, and possibly of other covariates. Mean time to decay was estimated from this function. 5. Synthesis and applications. Effective management of mammal populations usually requires reliable abundance estimates. The difficulty in estimating abundance of mammals in forest environments has increasingly led to the use of indirect survey methods, in which abundance of sign, usually dung (e.g. deer, antelope and elephants) or nests (e.g. apes), is estimated. Given estimated rates of sign production and decay, sign abundance estimates can be converted to estimates of animal abundance. Decay rates typically vary according to season, weather, habitat, diet and many other factors, making reliable estimation of mean time to decay of signs present at the time of the survey problematic. We emphasize the need for retrospective rather than prospective rates, propose a strategy for survey design, and provide analysis methods for estimating retrospective rates.

Recent patterns of change in vegetation structure and tree composition of British broadleaved woodland: evidence from large-scale surveys

Evidence is presented of widespread changes in structure and species composition between the 1980s and 2003–2004 from surveys of 249 British broadleaved woodlands. Structural components examined include canopy cover, vertical vegetation profiles, field-layer cover and deadwood abundance. Woods were located in 13 geographical localities and the patterns of change were examined for each locality as well as across all woods. Changes were not uniform throughout the localities; overall, there were significant decreases in canopy cover and increases in sub-canopy (2–10 m) cover. Changes in 0.5–2 m vegetation cover showed strong geographic patterns, increasing in western localities, but declining or showing no change in eastern localities. There were significant increases in canopy ash Fraxinus excelsior and decreases in oak Quercus robur/petraea. Shrub layer ash and honeysuckle Lonicera periclymenum increased while birch Betula spp. hawthorn Crataegus monogyna and hazel Corylus avellana declined. Within the field layer, both bracken Pteridium aquilinum and herbs increased. Overall, deadwood generally increased. Changes were consistent with reductions in active woodland management and changes in grazing and browsing pressure. These findings have important implications for sustainable active management of British broadleaved woodlands to meet silvicultural and biodiversity objectives.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Flat, flatter, flattest: the English Heritage wetland surveys in retrospect

Since 1973, English Heritage has supported four major regional surveys of England's wetlands- in the Somerset Levels, the Fens of Eastern England, the wetlands of the northwest of England and the Humber wetlands. Each of these projects developed a range of methods and techniques particular to the landscape that was studied and the results from the surveys reflect this diversity of approach. This paper compares and contrast these approaches, and evaluates their effect on the overall results of each of these surveys.

Cross-sector surveys assessing perceptions of key stakeholders towards barriers, concerns and facilitators to the appropriate use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. Methods We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. Results Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. Conclusions There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

Health surveys and use of maternal and child health care services in three municipalities within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area

Objectives. To describe the changes in the use of maternal and child health care services by residents of three municipalities-Embu, Itapecerica da Serra, and Taboao da Serra-in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, 12 years after the implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) in Brazil, and to analyze the potential of population-based health care surveys as sources of data to evaluate these changes. Methods. Two population-based, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 1990 and 2002 in municipalities located within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area. For children under 1 year of age, the two periods were compared in terms of outpatient services utilization and hospital admission; for the mothers, the periods were compared in terms of prenatal care and deliveries. In both surveys, stratified and multiple-stage conglomerate sampling was employed, with standardization of interview questions. Results. The most important changes observed were regarding the location of services used for prenatal care, deliveries, and hospitalization of children less than 1 year of age. There was a significant increase in the use of services in the surrounding region or hometown, and decrease in the utilization of services in the city of Sao Paulo (in 1990, 80% of deliveries and almost all admissions for children less than 1 year versus 32% and 46%, respectively, in 2002). The use of primary care units and 24-hour walk-in clinics also increased. All these changes reflect care provided by public resources. In the private sector, there was a decrease in direct payments and payments through company-paid health insurance and an increase in payments through self-paid health insurance. Conclusions. The major changes observed in the second survey occurred simultaneous to the changes that resulted from the implementation of the SUS. Population-based health surveys are adequate for analyzing and comparing the utilization of health care services at different times.

Risk factors for dengue virus infection in rural Amazonia: Population-based cross-sectional surveys

A comparison of dengue virus (DENV) antibody levels in paired serum samples collected from predominantly DENV-naive residents in an agricultural settlement in Brazilian Amazonia (baseline seroprevalence, 18.3%) showed a seroconversion rate of 3.67 episodes/100 person-years at risk during 12 months of follow-up. Multivariate analysis identified male sex, poverty, and migration from extra-Amazonian states as significant predictors of baseline DENY seropositivity, whereas male sex, a history of clinical diagnosis of dengue fever, and travel to an urban area predicted subsequent seroconversion. The laboratory surveillance of acute febrile illnesses implemented at the study site and in a nearby town between 2004 and 2006 confirmed 11. DENV infections among 102 episodes studied with DENV IgM detection, reverse transcriptase-polymerise chain reaction, and virus isolation; DENV-3 was isolated. Because DENV exposure is associated with migration or travel, personal protection measures when visiting high-risk urban areas may reduce the incidence of DENV infection in this rural population.

The signature of dark energy perturbations in galaxy cluster surveys

Models of dynamical dark energy unavoidably possess fluctuations in the energy density and pressure of that new component. In this paper we estimate the impact of dark energy fluctuations on the number of galaxy clusters in the Universe using a generalization of the spherical collapse model and the Press-Schechter formalism. The observations we consider are several hypothetical Sunyaev-Zel`dovich and weak lensing (shear maps) cluster surveys, with limiting masses similar to ongoing (SPT, DES) as well as future (LSST, Euclid) surveys. Our statistical analysis is performed in a 7-dimensional cosmological parameter space using the Fisher matrix method. We find that, in some scenarios, the impact of these fluctuations is large enough that their effect could already be detected by existing instruments such as the South Pole Telescope, when priors from other standard cosmological probes are included. We also show how dark energy fluctuations can be a nuisance for constraining cosmological parameters with cluster counts, and point to a degeneracy between the parameter that describes dark energy pressure on small scales (the effective sound speed) and the parameters describing its equation of state.

Radon surveys in Brazil using CR-39

In this work results of two radon daughters survey in Brazil are presented and discussed. Some methodological problems concerning the first survey are pointed out which were corrected for the second survey in order to make a realistic long-term measurement of radon decay products in the air. The technique employed in both surveys was the alpha-spectroscopy using CR-39. The reliability of this technique as well as the results of the second survey are discussed, which indicate a poor correlation between radon and its decay products in the air at the researched dwellings. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estudo sistemático de estrelas variáveis na era dos grandes surveys

The interest in the systematic analysis of astronomical time series data, as well as development in astronomical instrumentation and automation over the past two decades has given rise to several questions of how to analyze and synthesize the growing amount of data. These data have led to many discoveries in the areas of modern astronomy asteroseismology, exoplanets and stellar evolution. However, treatment methods and data analysis have failed to follow the development of the instruments themselves, although much effort has been done. In present thesis, we propose new methods of data analysis and two catalogs of the variable stars that allowed the study of rotational modulation and stellar variability. Were analyzed the photometric databases fromtwo distinctmissions: CoRoT (Convection Rotation and planetary Transits) and WFCAM (Wide Field Camera). Furthermore the present work describes several methods for the analysis of photometric data besides propose and refine selection techniques of data using indices of variability. Preliminary results show that variability indices have an efficiency greater than the indices most often used in the literature. An efficient selection of variable stars is essential to improve the efficiency of all subsequent steps. Fromthese analyses were obtained two catalogs; first, fromtheWFCAMdatabase we achieve a catalog with 319 variable stars observed in the photometric bands Y ZJHK. These stars show periods ranging between ∼ 0, 2 to ∼ 560 days whose the variability signatures present RR-Lyrae, Cepheids , LPVs, cataclysmic variables, among many others. Second, from the CoRoT database we selected 4, 206 stars with typical signatures of rotationalmodulation, using a supervised process. These stars show periods ranging between ∼ 0, 33 to ∼ 92 days, amplitude variability between ∼ 0, 001 to ∼ 0, 5 mag, color index (J - H) between ∼ 0, 0 to ∼ 1, 4 mag and spectral type CoRoT FGKM. The WFCAM variable stars catalog is being used to compose a database of light curves to be used as template in an automatic classifier for variable stars observed by the project VVV (Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy) moreover it are a fundamental start point to study different scientific cases. For example, a set of 12 young stars who are in a star formation region and the study of RR Lyrae-whose properties are not well established in the infrared. Based on CoRoT results we were able to show, for the first time, the rotational modulation evolution for an wide homogeneous sample of field stars. The results are inagreement with those expected by the stellar evolution theory. Furthermore, we identified 4 solar-type stars ( with color indices, spectral type, luminosity class and rotation period close to the Sun) besides 400 M-giant stars that we have a special interest to forthcoming studies. From the solar-type stars we can describe the future and past of the Sun while properties of M-stars are not well known. Our results allow concluded that there is a high dependence of the color-period diagram with the reddening in which increase the uncertainties of the age-period realized by previous works using CoRoT data. This thesis provides a large data-set for different scientific works, such as; magnetic activity, cataclysmic variables, brown dwarfs, RR-Lyrae, solar analogous, giant stars, among others. For instance, these data will allow us to study the relationship of magnetic activitywith stellar evolution. Besides these aspects, this thesis presents an improved classification for a significant number of stars in the CoRoT database and introduces a new set of tools that can be used to improve the entire process of the photometric databases analysis

Health surveys and use of maternal and child health care services in three municipalities within the São Paulo metropolitan area

Objectives. To describe the changes in the use of maternal and child health care services by residents of three municipalities-Embu, Itapecerica da Serra, and Taboao da Serra-in the São Paulo metropolitan area, 12 years after the implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) in Brazil, and to analyze the potential of population-based health care surveys as sources of data to evaluate these changes.Methods. Two population-based, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 1990 and 2002 in municipalities located within the São Paulo metropolitan area. For children under 1 year of age, the two periods were compared in terms of outpatient services utilization and hospital admission; for the mothers, the periods were compared in terms of prenatal care and deliveries. In both surveys, stratified and multiple-stage conglomerate sampling was employed, with standardization of interview questions.Results. The most important changes observed were regarding the location of services used for prenatal care, deliveries, and hospitalization of children less than 1 year of age. There was a significant increase in the use of services in the surrounding region or hometown, and decrease in the utilization of services in the city of São Paulo (in 1990, 80% of deliveries and almost all admissions for children less than 1 year versus 32% and 46%, respectively, in 2002). The use of primary care units and 24-hour walk-in clinics also increased. All these changes reflect care provided by public resources. In the private sector, there was a decrease in direct payments and payments through company-paid health insurance and an increase in payments through self-paid health insurance.Conclusions. The major changes observed in the second survey occurred simultaneous to the changes that resulted from the implementation of the SUS. Population-based health surveys are adequate for analyzing and comparing the utilization of health care services at different times.

The signature of dark energy perturbations in galaxy cluster surveys

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)