Estimating equations for parameters in stochastic growth models from tag-recapture data

James (1991, Biometrics 47, 1519-1530) constructed unbiased estimating functions for estimating the two parameters in the von Bertalanffy growth curve from tag-recapture data. This paper provides unbiased estimating functions for a class of growth models that incorporate stochastic components and explanatory variables. a simulation study using seasonal growth models indicates that the proposed method works well while the least-squares methods that are commonly used in the literature may produce substantially biased estimates. The proposed model and method are also applied to real data from tagged rack lobsters to assess the possible seasonal effect on growth.

Bias reduction using stochastic approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.

Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Transmission loss analysis of rectangular expansion chamber with arbitrary location of inlet/outlet by means of Green's functions

Transmission loss of a rectangular expansion chamber, the inlet and outlet of which are situated at arbitrary locations of the chamber, i.e., the side wall or the face of the chamber, are analyzed here based on the Green's function of a rectangular cavity with homogeneous boundary conditions. The rectangular chamber Green's function is expressed in terms of a finite number of rigid rectangular cavity mode shapes. The inlet and outlet ports are modeled as uniform velocity pistons. If the size of the piston is small compared to wavelength, then the plane wave excitation is a valid assumption. The velocity potential inside the chamber is expressed by superimposing the velocity potentials of two different configurations. The first configuration is a piston source at the inlet port and a rigid termination at the outlet, and the second one is a piston at the outlet with a rigid termination at the inlet. Pressure inside the chamber is derived from velocity potentials using linear momentum equation. The average pressure acting on the pistons at the inlet and outlet locations is estimated by integrating the acoustic pressure over the piston area in the two constituent configurations. The transfer matrix is derived from the average pressure values and thence the transmission loss is calculated. The results are verified against those in the literature where use has been made of modal expansions and also numerical models (FEM fluid). The transfer matrix formulation for yielding wall rectangular chambers has been derived incorporating the structural–acoustic coupling. Parametric studies are conducted for different inlet and outlet configurations, and the various phenomena occurring in the TL curves that cannot be explained by the classical plane wave theory, are discussed.

Modelling the potential spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) (red imported fire ant) in Australia

Quantifying the potential spread and density of an invading organism enables decision-makers to determine the most appropriate response to incursions. We present two linked models that estimate the spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) in Australia based on limited data gathered after its discovery in Brisbane in 2001. A stochastic cellular automaton determines spread within a location (100 km by 100 km) and this is coupled with a model that simulates human-mediated movement of S. invicta to new locations. In the absence of any control measures, the models predict that S. invicta could cover 763 000–4 066 000 km2 by the year 2035 and be found at 200 separate locations around Australia by 2017–2027, depending on the rate of spread. These estimated rates of expansion (assuming no control efforts were in place) are higher than those experienced in the USA in the 1940s during the early invasion phases in that country. Active control efforts and quarantine controls in the USA (including a concerted eradication attempt in the 1960s) may have slowed spread. Further, milder winters, the presence of the polygynous social form, increased trade and human mobility in Australia in 2000s compared with the USA in 1940s could contribute to faster range expansion.

Phosphorus nutrition and tolerance of cotton to water stress: II. Water relations, free and bound water and leaf expansion rate

In previous experiments, increased leaf-Phosphorus (P) content with increasing P supply enhanced the individual leaf expansion and water content of fresh cotton leaves in a severely drying soil. In this paper, we report on the bulk water content of leaves and its components, free and bound water, along with other measures of plant water status, in expanding cotton leaves of various ages in a drying soil with different P concentrations. The bound water in living tissue is more likely to play a major role in tolerance to abiotic stresses by maintaining the structural integrity and/or cell wall extensibility of the leaves, whilst an increased amount of free water might be able to enhance solute accumulation, leading to better osmotic adjustment and tolerance to water stress, and maintenance of the volumes of sub-cellular compartments for expansive leaf growth. There were strong correlations between leaf-P%, leaf water (total, free and bound water) and leaf expansion rate (LER) under water stress conditions in a severely drying soil. Increased soil-P enhanced the uptake of P from a drying soil, leading to increased supply of osmotically active inorganic solutes to the cells in growing leaves. This appears to have led to the accumulation of free water and more bound water, ultimately leading to increased leaf expansion rates as compared to plants in low P soil under similar water stress conditions. The greater amount of bound and free water in the high-P plants was not necessarily associated with changes in cell turgor, and appears to have maintained the cell-wall properties and extensibility under water stressed conditions in soils that are nutritionally P-deficient.

Strong-coupling expansion for the momentum distribution of the Bose-Hubbard model with benchmarking against exact numerical results

A strong-coupling expansion for the Green's functions, self-energies, and correlation functions of the Bose-Hubbard model is developed. We illustrate the general formalism, which includes all possible (normal-phase) inhomogeneous effects in the formalism, such as disorder or a trap potential, as well as effects of thermal excitations. The expansion is then employed to calculate the momentum distribution of the bosons in the Mott phase for an infinite homogeneous periodic system at zero temperature through third order in the hopping. By using scaling theory for the critical behavior at zero momentum and at the critical value of the hopping for the Mott insulator–to–superfluid transition along with a generalization of the random-phase-approximation-like form for the momentum distribution, we are able to extrapolate the series to infinite order and produce very accurate quantitative results for the momentum distribution in a simple functional form for one, two, and three dimensions. The accuracy is better in higher dimensions and is on the order of a few percent relative error everywhere except close to the critical value of the hopping divided by the on-site repulsion. In addition, we find simple phenomenological expressions for the Mott-phase lobes in two and three dimensions which are much more accurate than the truncated strong-coupling expansions and any other analytic approximation we are aware of. The strong-coupling expansions and scaling-theory results are benchmarked against numerically exact quantum Monte Carlo simulations in two and three dimensions and against density-matrix renormalization-group calculations in one dimension. These analytic expressions will be useful for quick comparison of experimental results to theory and in many cases can bypass the need for expensive numerical simulations.

Packed bed bioreactor for the isolation and expansion of placental-derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells

Large numbers of Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs) are required for clinical relevant doses to treat a number of diseases. To economically manufacture these MSCs, an automated bioreactor system will be required. Herein we describe the development of a scalable closed-system, packed bed bioreactor suitable for large-scale MSCs expansion. The packed bed was formed from fused polystyrene pellets that were air plasma treated to endow them with a surface chemistry similar to traditional tissue culture plastic. The packed bed was encased within a gas permeable shell to decouple the medium nutrient supply and gas exchange. This enabled a significant reduction in medium flow rates, thus reducing shear and even facilitating single pass medium exchange. The system was optimised in a small-scale bioreactor format (160 cm2) with murine-derived green fluorescent protein-expressing MSCs, and then scaled-up to a 2800 cm2 format. We demonstrated that placental derived MSCs could be isolated directly within the bioreactor and subsequently expanded. Our results demonstrate that the closed system large-scale packed bed bioreactor is an effective and scalable tool for large-scale isolation and expansion of MSCs.

Rapid Global Expansion of the Fungal Disease Chytridiomycosis into Declining and Healthy Amphibian Populations.

The fungal disease chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is enigmatic because it occurs globally in both declining and apparently healthy (non-declining) amphibian populations. This distribution has fueled debate concerning whether, in sites where it has recently been found, the pathogen was introduced or is endemic. In this study, we addressed the molecular population genetics of a global collection of fungal strains from both declining and healthy amphibian populations using DNA sequence variation from 17 nuclear loci and a large fragment from the mitochondrial genome. We found a low rate of DNA polymorphism, with only two sequence alleles detected at each locus, but a high diversity of diploid genotypes. Half of the loci displayed an excess of heterozygous genotypes, consistent with a primarily clonal mode of reproduction. Despite the absence of obvious sex, genotypic diversity was high (44 unique genotypes out of 59 strains). We provide evidence that the observed genotypic variation can be generated by loss of heterozygosity through mitotic recombination. One strain isolated from a bullfrog possessed as much allelic diversity as the entire global sample, suggesting the current epidemic can be traced back to the outbreak of a single clonal lineage. These data are consistent with the current chytridiomycosis epidemic resulting from a novel pathogen undergoing a rapid and recent range expansion. The widespread occurrence of the same lineage in both healthy and declining populations suggests that the outcome of the disease is contingent on environmental factors and host resistance.

Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

Analysis of EXCOBULLE two-phase expansion tests

analysis of a complex physical problem and the close agreement they achieved with observations. However, the following points need to be clarified. First of all the authors assume that during the initial phases of expansion, the Tayior's instability sets in due to the acceleraacceleration of lighter fluid against the more dense cold water.

Efficient implementations of a pseudodynamical stochastic filtering strategy for static elastography

A computationally efficient pseudodynamical filtering setup is established for elasticity imaging (i.e., reconstruction of shear modulus distribution) in soft-tissue organs given statically recorded and partially measured displacement data. Unlike a regularized quasi-Newton method (QNM) that needs inversion of ill-conditioned matrices, the authors explore pseudodynamic extended and ensemble Kalman filters (PD-EKF and PD-EnKF) that use a parsimonious representation of states and bypass explicit regularization by recursion over pseudotime. Numerical experiments with QNM and the two filters suggest that the PD-EnKF is the most robust performer as it exhibits no sensitivity to process noise covariance and yields good reconstruction even with small ensemble sizes.

Stochastic Modeling of an Aircraft Traversing a Runway Using Time Series Analysis

Time series, from a narrow point of view, is a sequence of observations on a stochastic process made at discrete and equally spaced time intervals. Its future behavior can be predicted by identifying, fitting, and confirming a mathematical model. In this paper, time series analysis is applied to problems concerning runwayinduced vibrations of an aircraft. A simple mathematical model based on this technique is fitted to obtain the impulse response coefficients of an aircraft system considered as a whole for a particular type of operation. Using this model, the output which is the aircraft response can be obtained with lesser computation time for any runway profile as the input.

Stochastic kinetics of ribosomes: Single motor properties and collective behavior

Syntheses of protein molecules in a cell are carried out by ribosomes.A ribosome can be regarded as a molecular motor which utilizes the input chemical energy to move on a messenger RNA (mRNA) track that also serves as a template for the polymerization of the corresponding protein. The forward movement, however, is characterized by an alternating sequence of translocation and pause. Using a quantitative model, which captures the mechanochemical cycle of an individual ribosome, we derive an exact analytical expression for the distribution of its dwell times at the successive positions on the mRNA track. Inverse of the average dwell time satisfies a Michaelis-Menten-type'' equation and is consistent with the general formula for the average velocity of a molecular motor with an unbranched mechanochemical cycle. Extending this formula appropriately, we also derive the exact force-velocity relation for a ribosome. Often many ribosomes each synthesizes a copy of the same protein. We extend the model of a single ribosome by incorporating steric exclusion of different individuals on the same track. We draw the phase diagram of this model of ribosome traffic in three-dimensional spaces spanned by experimentally controllable parameters. We suggest new experimental tests of our theoretical predictions.

Ultrasonic velocities and thermal expansion coefficients of amorphous Se80Te20 and Se90Te10 alloys near glass transitions

Precise measurements of the ultrasonic velocities and thermal expansivities of amorphous Se80Te20 and Se90Te10 alloys are reported near the glass transition. The samples are produced by liquid quenching. The longitudinal and transverse velocities are measured at 10 MHz frequency using the McSkimin pulse superposition technique. The thermal expansivities,agr, are measured using a three-terminal capacitance bridge. Theagr-values show a sharp maximum near the glass transition temperature,T g. The ultrasonic velocities also show a large temperature derivative, dV/dT nearT g. The data are discussed in terms of existing theories of the glass transition. The continuous change inagr shows that the glass transition is not a first-order transition, as suggested by some theories. The samples are found to be deformed by small loads nearT g. The ultrasonic velocities and dV/dT have contributions arising from this deformation.