Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

The effectiveness of short-term literacy skills intervention on children at risk of reading and writing difficulties in Tanzania : a study of grade one children with dynamic assessment approach

The aim of the study was to create and evaluate an intervention programme for Tanzanian children from a low-income area who are at risk of reading and writing difficulties. The learning difficulties, including reading and writing difficulties, are likely to be behind many of the common school problems in Tanzania, but they are not well understood, and research is needed. The design of the study included an identification and intervention phase with follow-up. A group based dynamic assessment approach was used in identifying children at risk of difficulties in reading and writing. The same approach was used in the intervention. The study was a randomized experiment with one experimental and two control groups. For the experimental and the control groups, a total of 96 (46 girls and 50 boys) children from grade one were screened out of 301 children from two schools in a low income urban area of Dar-es-Salaam. One third of the children, the experimental group, participated in an intensive training programme in literacy skills for five weeks, six hours per week, aimed at promoting reading and writing ability, while the children in the control groups had a mathematics and art programme. Follow-up was performed five months after the intervention. The intervention programme and the tests were based on the Zambian BASAT (Basic Skill Assessment Tool, Ketonen & Mulenga, 2003), but the content was drawn from the Kiswahili school curriculum in Tanzania. The main components of the training and testing programme were the same, only differing in content. The training process was different from traditional training in Tanzanian schools in that principles of teaching and training in dynamic assessment were followed. Feedback was the cornerstone of the training and the focus was on supporting the children in exploring knowledge and strategies in performing the tasks. The experimental group improved significantly more (p = .000) than the control groups during the intervention from pre-test to follow-up (repeated measures ANOVA). No differences between the control groups were noticed. The effect was significant on all the measures: phonological awareness, reading skills, writing skills and overall literacy skills. A transfer effect on school marks in Kiswahili and English was found. Following a discussion of the results, suggestions for further research and adaptation of the programme are presented.

Optimal trading of wind power in the short term market

The energy reform, which is happening all over the world, is caused by the common concern of the future of the humankind in our shared planet. In order to keep the effects of the global warming inside of a certain limit, the use of fossil fuels must be reduced. The marginal costs of the renewable sources, RES are quite high, since they are new technology. In order to induce the implementation of RES to the power grid and lower the marginal costs, subsidies were developed in order to make the use of RES more profitable. From the RES perspective the current market is developed to favor conventional generation, which mainly uses fossil fuels. Intermittent generation, like wind power, is penalized in the electricity market since it is intermittent and thus diffi-cult to control. Therefore, the need of regulation and thus the regulation costs to the producer differ, depending on what kind of generation market participant owns. In this thesis it is studied if there is a way for market participant, who has wind power to use the special characteristics of electricity market Nord Pool and thus reach the gap between conventional generation and the intermittent generation only by placing bids to the market. Thus, an optimal bid is introduced, which purpose is to minimize the regulation costs and thus lower the marginal costs of wind power. In order to make real life simulations in Nord Pool, a wind power forecast model was created. The simulations were done in years 2009 and 2010 by using a real wind power data provided by Hyötytuuli, market data from Nord Pool and wind forecast data provided by Finnish Meteorological Institute. The optimal bid needs probability intervals and therefore the methodology to create probability distributions is introduced in this thesis. In the end of the thesis it is shown that the optimal bidding improves the position of wind power producer in the electricity market.

Crop residues on short-term CO2 emissions in sugarcane production areas

The proper management of agricultural crop residues could produce benefits in a warmer, more drought-prone world. Field experiments were conducted in sugarcane production areas in the Southern Brazil to assess the influence of crop residues on the soil surface in short-term CO2 emissions. The study was carried out over a period of 50 days after establishing 6 plots with and without crop residues applied to the soil surface. The effects of sugarcane residues on CO2 emissions were immediate; the emissions from residue-covered plots with equivalent densities of 3 (D50) and 6 (D100) t ha-1 (dry mass) were less than those from non-covered plots (D0). Additionally, the covered fields had lower soil temperatures and higher soil moisture for most of the studied days, especially during the periods of drought. Total emissions were as high as 553.62 ± 47.20 g CO2 m-2, and as low as 384.69 ± 31.69 g CO2 m-2 in non-covered (D0) and covered plot with an equivalent density of 3 t ha-1 (D50), respectively. Our results indicate a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, indicating conservation of soil carbon over the short-term period following the application of sugarcane residues to the soil surface.

Short-term changes in handgrip strength, body composition, and lymphedema induced by breast cancer surgery

PURPOSE: This study investigated short-term changes in body composition, handgrip strength, and presence of lymphedema in women who underwent breast cancer surgery.METHODS: Ninety-five women participated in a cross-sectional study, divided into two groups: Control (n=46), with healthy women, and Experimental (n=49), with women six months after breast cancer surgery . The Experimental Group was subdivided into right total mastectomy (RTM, n=15), left total mastectomy (LTM, n=11), right quadrant (RQ, n=13), and left quadrant (LQ, n=10). It was also redistributed among women with presence (n=10) or absence (n=39) of lymphedema. Presence of lymphedema, handgrip strength, and body composition were assessed.RESULTS: Trunk lean mass and handgrip strength were decreased in the Experimental Group. Total lean mass was increased in the LTM compared to RTM or LQ. Left handgrip strength in LTM was decreased compared to RTM and RQ and in LQ compared to RTM and RQ. Finally, total lean mass, trunk fat mass, trunk lean mass, right and left arm lean mass were increased in women with lymphedema.CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer survivors have changes in their body composition and in handgrip strength six months after surgery; however, the interaction between the type of surgery and its impact is unclear. Furthermore, women who developed lymphedema in this period showed more significant changes in the body composition, but they were not enough to cause impairment in handgrip strength.

Cysteine addition on short-term cooled boar semen preservation and its relationship with swine field fertility

Artificial insemination is routinely used in the swine industry to reduce the costs of production through to increase the efficiency of the refrigerated boar semen process. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different levels of cysteine (CYS) added to the Beltsville Thawing Solution (BTS) extender semen during cooling for up to 72 hours. Ejaculated from three boars were collected with the gloved-hand technique and semen aliquots were diluted in BTS as follow: BTS only (BTS), BTS + 0.1mM cysteine (CYS0.1), BTS + 0.5mM cysteine (CYS0.5), BTS + 1.0mM cysteine (CYS1.0), BTS + 2.5mM cysteine (CYS2.5), BTS + 5.0mM cysteine (CYS5.0), BTS + 10.0mM cysteine (CYS10.0), and BTS + 20.0mM cysteine (CYS20.0). Evaluation of sperm integrity were analyzed using 0.5mg/ml propidium iodide (plasma membrane), 100µg/ml isothiocynate-conjugated Pisum sativun agglutinin (acrosomal membrane) and 153µM 5,5',6,6'-tetrachloro-1,1',3,3'-tetraethylbenzimidazolyl carbocyanine iodide (mitochondria potential) after semen dilution at specific times (0, 24, 48 and 72 hours). Additionally, we also evaluated the effects of 5.0 mM CYS addition in the BTS extender on the maintenance of sperm quality and their influence on fertility in the swine production. After artificial insemination, animals were evaluated based on the estrous return and the number of piglet's born. Cysteine at concentrations of 10.0 and 20.0mM resulted in more pronounced reductions even at the time zero. Semen viability decreased to levels below 10% at these high levels of CYS in the first 24 hour of storage at 17ºC. At the end of the storage time, less than 65% of sperm cells had intact plasma membrane in all groups. The sperm viability decreased significantly when the semen was added at high concentrations of CYS (time "0"; CYS10.0 and CYS20.0; p<0.05), when compared to the other CYS concentrations. The BTS (10.20±0.39) treated group showed a lower rate of estrus return when compared to other (BTSCYS; 86.05±039), and it showed also the highest total number of piglets borne per treatment (12.71±3.38 vs. 9.00±3.38, respectively). In conclusion, the addition of CYS in the BTS semen extender did not maintain spermatic viability of boar cooled spermatozoa and it results in a higher percentage of return to estrus and lower number of piglets borne.

Cesarean section - short term maternal complications related to the mode of delivery

Cesarean section (CS) is the most common major surgery performed on women worldwide. CS can save the life of the mother or the fetus, but is associated with the typical complications of any major surgery: hemorrhage, infection, venous thromboembolism and complications of anesthesia, sometimes leading to maternal death. Recently there have been several reports from well resourced countries on increased severe maternal morbidity and even mortality. Increased rates of CS, obesity and older mothers may explain this rise. The aim of this thesis is to study the rates and risk factors of short term maternal complications associated with CS. Also, we compared maternal morbidity by mode of delivery and over time. The complication rates were assessed in a prospective study involving 2496 CS performed in the 12 largest delivery units in Finland in 2005. The rates of severe complications were studied by mode of delivery in a register-based study comparing national cohorts in 1997 and 2002. The impact of several risk factors on severe maternal morbidity by mode of delivery was studied in a register-based study of all singleton deliveries in 2007-2011. In the prospective study, 27% of the women who underwent CS had one or more intraoperative or postoperative complications during their hospital stay, and 10% had a severe complication. In the register-based study the incidence of life-threatening maternal complications was 7.6 in 1000 deliveries. The incidence was lowest for vaginal delivery (VD), followed by instrumental VD and elective CS, and highest in emergency CS. An attempt of VD, including the risks associated with emergency CS, seems to be the safest mode of delivery, even for most high-risk women.

Autoradiographic thyroid evaluation in short-term experimental diabetes mellitus

Previous studies have shown that in vitro thyroid peroxidase (TPO) iodide oxidation activity is decreased and thyroid T4-5'-deiodinase activity is increased 15 days after induction of experimental diabetes mellitus (DM). In the present study we used thyroid histoautoradiography, an indirect assay of in vivo TPO activity, to determine the possible parallelism between the in vitro and in vivo changes induced by experimental DM. DM was induced in male Wistar rats (about 250 g body weight) by a single ip streptozotocin injection (45 mg/kg), while control (C) animals received a single injection of the vehicle. Seven and 30 days after diabetes induction, each diabetic and control animal was given ip a tracer dose of 125I (2 µCi), 2.5 h before thyroid excision. The glands were counted, weighed, fixed in Bouin's solution, embedded in paraffin and cut. The sections were stained with HE and exposed to NTB-2 emulsion (Kodak). The autohistograms were developed and the quantitative distribution of silver grains was evaluated with a computerized image analyzer system. Thyroid radioiodine uptake was significantly decreased only after 30 days of DM (C: 0.38 ± 0.05 vs DM: 0.20 ± 0.04%/mg thyroid, P<0.05) while in vivo TPO activity was significantly decreased 7 and 30 days after DM induction (C: 5.3 and 4.5 grains/100 µm2 vs DM: 2.9 and 1.6 grains/100 µm2, respectively, P<0.05 ). These data suggest that insulin deficiency first reduces in vivo TPO activity during short-term experimental diabetes mellitus

Electrocardiographic changes during low-dose, short-term therapy of cutaneous leishmaniasis with the pentavalent antimonial meglumine

The pentavalent antimonial (Sb5+) meglumine is the drug of choice for the treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Brazil. Although the cardiotoxicity of high-dose, long-term Sb5+ therapy is well known, the use of low-dose, short-term meglumine has been considered to be safe and relatively free from significant cardiac effects. In order to investigate the cardiotoxicity of low-dose, short-term therapy with meglumine in cutaneous leishmaniasis, 62 CL patients treated with meglumine were studied. A standard ECG was obtained before and immediately after the first cycle of treatment (15 mg Sb5+ kg-1 day-1). The electrocardiographic interpretation was carried out blindly by two investigators using the Minnesota Code. There were no significant differences in qualitative ECG variables before and after meglumine treatment. However, the corrected QT interval was clearly prolonged after antimonial therapy (420.0 vs 429.3 ms, P<10-6). QTc augmentation exceeded 40 ms in 12 patients, 7 of whom developed marked QTc interval enlargement (500 ms) after meglumine therapy. This previously unrecognized cardiac toxicity induced by short-term, low-dose antimonial therapy has potentially important clinical implications. Since sudden death has been related to QTc prolongation over 500 ms induced by high-dose antimonial therapy, routine electrocardiographic monitoring is probably indicated even in CL patients treated with short-term, low-dose meglumine schedules. Until further studies are conducted to establish the interactions between pentavalent antimonials and other drugs, special care is recommended when using meglumine in combination with other medications, in particular with drugs that also increase the QTc interval.

Relative influence of age, resting heart rate and sedentary life style in short-term analysis of heart rate variability

In order to assess the relative influence of age, resting heart rate (HR) and sedentary life style, heart rate variability (HRV) was studied in two different groups. The young group (YG) consisted of 9 sedentary subjects aged 15 to 20 years (YG-S) and of 9 nonsedentary volunteers (YG-NS) also aged 15 to 20. The elderly sedentary group (ESG) consisted of 16 sedentary subjects aged 39 to 82 years. HRV was assessed using a short-term procedure (5 min). R-R variability was calculated in the time-domain by means of the root mean square successive differences. Frequency-domain HRV was evaluated by power spectrum analysis considering high frequency and low frequency bands. In the YG the effort tolerance was ranked in a bicycle stress test. HR was similar for both groups while ESG showed a reduced HRV compared with YG. Within each group, HRV displayed a negative correlation with HR. Although YG-NS had better effort tolerance than YG-S, their HR and HRV were not significantly different. We conclude that HRV is reduced with increasing HR or age, regardless of life style. The results obtained in our short-term study agree with others of longer duration by showing that age and HR are the main determinants of HRV. Our results do not support the idea that changes in HRV are related to regular physical activity.

Development according to pubertal stage in Brazilian children and adolescents with short-term diabetes

The anthropometric status and metabolic control of 51 recently diagnosed Brazilian schoolchildren with type 1 diabetes (DM1), during the first 5 years of the disease, were compared with those of normal children (60 girls and 132 boys) belonging to the same environmental condition and pubertal stage. Metabolic control was evaluated on the basis of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c levels. The criteria of the National Center for Health Statistics were used for anthropometric evaluation. FPG (205 ± 51 mg/dl for girls vs 200 ± 34 mg/dl for boys) and % above upper normal limit of median HbA1c (1.8% for girls vs 2.5% for boys with diabetes) were not significantly different during follow-up. The Z-score of the last height evaluation was lower in the girls' group (-0.14 vs -0.53, P<0.05). By forward stepwise analysis, the Z-score of the initial height was statistically significant as a determinant factor for height at the end of the study in both girls and boys with DM1. The Z-score of weight at last evaluation was not different from that at diagnosis in either sex. However, analysis according to pubertal stage showed a tendency to a weight increase in the girls. The weight recovery and height loss in girls with DM1 follows the trend of the normal Brazilian population.

Short-term evaluation of non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite infiltration in the guinea pig subepidermal abdominal region

Non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite was infiltrated into the subepidermal abdominal region of guinea pigs in order to assess the possibility of using this material to correct deficiencies in orbital volume. Microgranular hydroxyapatite (2.0 ml) was subepidermally infiltrated into the abdominal region of 20 guinea pigs. The animals were divided into four experimental groups of 5 animals each, which were killed 7 (G1), 15 (G2), 30 (G3) and 60 (G4) days after infiltration. The area and the largest and smallest diameters of the nodules formed by infiltration were evaluated at the site of infiltration and histological examination was performed. The mean granuloma area was similar in all groups. Histopathological examination showed that the material remained isolated from surrounding tissues by a pseudocapsule that became denser throughout the experiment. A host reaction started with young fibroblastic tissue that evolved to dense tissue until cartilaginous tissue was formed in G4, progressively advancing towards the center of the granuloma from G1 to G4. Non-absorbable microgranular hydroxyapatite is an inert material that was well tolerated by the animals studied, with maintenance of the infiltrated volume, and may perhaps be useful to fill anophthalmic cavities.

Reflex control of arterial pressure and heart rate in short-term streptozotocin diabetic rats

Impaired baroreflex sensitivity in diabetes is well described and has been attributed to autonomic diabetic neuropathy. In the present study conducted on acute (10-20 days) streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetic rats we examined: 1) cardiac baroreflex sensitivity, assessed by the slope of the linear regression between phenylephrine- or sodium nitroprusside-induced changes in arterial pressure and reflex changes in heart rate (HR) in conscious rats; 2) aortic baroreceptor function by means of the relationship between systolic arterial pressure and aortic depressor nerve (ADN) activity, in anesthetized rats, and 3) bradycardia produced by electrical stimulation of the vagus nerve or by the iv injection of methacholine in anesthetized animals. Reflex bradycardia (-1.4 ± 0.1 vs -1.7 ± 0.1 bpm/mmHg) and tachycardia (-2.1 ± 0.3 vs -3.0 ± 0.2 bpm/mmHg) were reduced in the diabetic group. The gain of the ADN activity relationship was similar in control (1.7 ± 0.1% max/mmHg) and diabetic (1.5 ± 0.1% max/mmHg) animals. The HR response to vagal nerve stimulation with 16, 32 and 64 Hz was 13, 16 and 14% higher, respectively, than the response of STZ-treated rats. The HR response to increasing doses of methacholine was also higher in the diabetic group compared to control animals. Our results confirm the baroreflex dysfunction detected in previous studies on short-term diabetic rats. Moreover, the normal baroreceptor function and the altered HR responses to vagal stimulation or methacholine injection suggest that the efferent limb of the baroreflex is mainly responsible for baroreflex dysfunction in this model of diabetes.

Short-term exposure of mice to cigarette smoke and/or residual oil fly ash produces proximal airspace enlargements and airway epithelium remodeling

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with inflammatory cell reactions, tissue destruction and lung remodeling. Many signaling pathways for these phenomena are still to be identified. We developed a mouse model of COPD to evaluate some pathophysiological mechanisms acting during the initial stage of the disease. Forty-seven 6- to 8-week-old female C57/BL6 mice (approximately 22 g) were exposed for 2 months to cigarette smoke and/or residual oil fly ash (ROFA), a concentrate of air pollution. We measured lung mechanics, airspace enlargement, airway wall thickness, epithelial cell profile, elastic and collagen fiber deposition, and by immunohistochemistry transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), macrophage elastase (MMP12), neutrophils and macrophages. We observed regional airspace enlargements near terminal bronchioles associated with the exposure to smoke or ROFA. There were also increases in airway resistance and thickening of airway walls in animals exposed to smoke. In the epithelium, we noted a decrease in the ciliated cell area of animals exposed to smoke and an increase in the total cell area associated with exposure to both smoke and ROFA. There was also an increase in the expression of TGF-β1 both in the airways and parenchyma of animals exposed to smoke. However, we could not detect inflammatory cell recruitment, increases in MMP12 or elastic and collagen fiber deposition. After 2 months of exposure to cigarette smoke and/or ROFA, mice developed regional airspace enlargements and airway epithelium remodeling, although no inflammation or increases in fiber deposition were detected. Some of these phenomena may have been mediated by TGF-β1.

Short-term levosimendan treatment protects rat testes against oxidative stress

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of short-term levosimendan exposure on oxidant/antioxidant status and trace element levels in the testes of rats under physiological conditions. Twenty male Wistar albino rats were randomly divided into two groups of 10 animals each. Group 1 was not exposed to levosimendan and served as control. Levosimendan (12 µg/kg) diluted in 10 mL 0.9% NaCl was administered intraperitoneally to group 2. Animals of both groups were sacrificed after 3 days and their testes were harvested for the determination of changes in tissue oxidant/antioxidant status and trace element levels. Tissue malondialdehyde (MDA) was significantly lower in the levosimendan group (P < 0.001) than in the untreated control group and superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) levels were significantly higher in the levosimendan group (P < 0.001). Carbonic anhydrase, catalase and GSH levels were not significantly different from controls. Mg and Zn levels of testes were significantly higher (P < 0.001) and Co, Pb, Cd, Mn, and Cu were significantly lower (P < 0.001) in group 2 compared to group 1. Fe levels were similar for the two groups (P = 0.94). These results suggest that 3-day exposure to levosimendan induced a significant decrease in tissue MDA level, which is a lipid peroxidation product and an indicator of oxidative stress, and a significant increase in the activity of an important number of the enzymes that protect against oxidative stress in rat testes.