Human capital and regional development

We investigate the determinants of regional development using a newly constructed database of 1569 sub-national regions from 110 countries covering 74 percent of the world s surface and 97 percent of its GDP. We combine the cross-regional analysis of geographic, institutional, cultural, and human capital determinants of regional development with an examination of productivity in several thousand establishments located in these regions. To organize the discussion, we present a new model of regional development that introduces into a standard migration framework elements of both the Lucas (1978) model of the allocation of talent between entrepreneurship and work, and the Lucas (1988) model of human capital externalities. The evidence points to the paramount importance of human capital in accounting for regional differences in development, but also suggests from model estimation and calibration that entrepreneurial inputs and possibly human capital externalities help understand the data.

Social security in theory and practice (II): Efficiency theories, narrative theories and implications for reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "governmenteconomizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory".The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Human capital and externalities in cities

We combine growth theory with US Census data on individual schooling and wages to estimate the aggregate return to human capital and human capital externalities in cities. Our estimates imply that a one-year increase in average schooling in cities increases their aggregate labor productivity by 8 to 11 percent. We find no evidence for aggregate human capital externalities in cities however althoughwe use three different approaches. Our main theoretical contribution is to show how human capital externalities can be identified (non-parametically) even if workers with different levels of human capital are imperfect substitutes in production.

Measuring intangibles' productivity. Empirical evidence from Spanish firms

As companies and shareholders begin to note the potential repercussions of intangible assets uponbusiness results, the inability of the traditional financial statement model to reflect these new waysof creating business value has become evident. Companies have widely adopted newmanagement tools, covering in this way the inability of the traditional financial statement model toreflect these new ways of creating business value.However, there are few prior studies measuring on a quantifiable manner the level of productivityunexplained in the financial statements. In this study, we measure the effect of intangible assets onproductivity using data from Spanish firms selected randomly by size and sector over a ten-yearperiod, from 1995 to 2004. Through a sample of more than 10,000 Spanish firms we analyse towhat extent labour productivity can be explained by physical capital deepening, by quantifiedintangible capital deepening and by firm s economic efficiency (or total factor productivity PTF).Our results confirm the hypothesis that PTF weigh has increased during the period studied,especially on those firms that have experienced a significant raise in quantified intangible capital,evidencing that there are some important complementary effects between capital investment andintangible resources in the explanation of productivity growth. These results have significantdifferences considering economic sector and firm s dimension.

Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Growth accounting in items of turbulence and death: efficiency, technology, capital accumulation and human capital 1929-1950

We employ a non-parametrical approach to growth accounting (Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA) to disentangle the proximate sources of labour productivity growth in 41 nationsbetween 1929 and 1950 by decomposing productivity growth into four components:technological change; efficiency catch-up (movements towards the production frontier),capital accumulation and human capital accumulation. We show that efficiency catch-upgenerally explains productivity growth, whereas technological change and factoraccumulation were limited and distorted by the effects of war. War clearly hamperedefficiency. Moreover, an unbalanced ratio of human capital to physical capital (a gap to thetechnological leader) was crucial for efficiency catching-up.

Public and private saving and investment

We decompose aggregate saving and investment into its publicand private components and then document a variety of ``stylized facts''associated with saving and investment rates for a sample of15 countries over the period 1975--1989. In order to seewhether these empirical relationships are consistent with aworld of perfect capital mobility we develop a multi--countrymodel with free trade in a riskfree bond and calibrate it tothe fifteen OECD countries. We pay special attential tomodeling the fiscal policy rules. The model performsremarkably well in accounting for a wide variety of timeseries relationships. Nonetheless the model is not able to capture the crosssectional aspect of the data. In particular, the model cannot accountfor both the large cross country correlation between aggregate saving and investmentrates and the very negative cross country relationship between the public andprivate saving minus investment gaps.

Adjustment to target capital, finance and growth

Does financial development result in capital being reallocated more rapidly to industries where it is most productive? We argue that if this was the case, financially developed countries should see faster growth in industries with investment opportunities due to global demand and productivity shifts. Testing this cross-industry cross-country growth implication requires proxies for (latent) global industry investment opportunities. We show that tests relying only on data from specific (benchmark) countries may yield spurious evidence for or against the hypothesis. We therefore develop an alternative approach that combines benchmark-country proxies with a proxy that does not reflect opportunities specific to a country or level of financial development. Our empirical results yield clear support for the capital reallocation hypothesis.

Traité général de science économique / par Christian Cornélissen. T. 3, Théorie du capital et du profit

Collection : Bibliothèque internationale d'économie politique ; 87-88

Intangible Capital: An opportunity for PhD students and junior researchers

El objetivo de esta editorial es exponer los hitos más importantes acontecidos durante el año 2008, en el que se publicó el volumen 4, los datos de visibilidad y por primera vez los resultados de una encuesta de satisfacción realizada a los autores que han enviado durante 2008 alguna publicación a evaluación. Además, en el anexo se expone la relación de revisores y miembros del Editorial Board que han hecho posible el cuarto volumen de Intangible Capital. También se informa sobre los aspectos que indican el principio de una consolidación de la revista, y la importancia de mantener los principios básicos que dieron origen a esta publicación. Concluimos la editorial animando a directores de tesis, estudiantes de doctorado y autores noveles a enviar sus primeros trabajos a evaluación.The aim of this editorial is to present the most important Intangible Capital milestones of 2008. During the last year, the intangible Capital published its 4th volume, together with information regarding the journal’s visibility and the first results of a satisfaction survey conducted among the authors, who submitted a paper for evaluation. In addition, the annex presents the list of reviewers and the Editorial Board members who have enabled the publication of the fourth volume of the Intangible Capital. This editorial also provides information regarding the aspects that indicate the beginning of the journal’s consolidation, and the importance of maintaining the basic principles that gave rise to this publication. The editorial concludes by encouraging PhD advisors, doctoral students and junior researchers the Intangible Capital a potential outlet for their work.

Théorie et application de l'impôt sur le capital / par Menier,...

Collection : Bibliothèque de la réforme fiscale et économique

Complementarity between human capital and trade in regional technological progress

The effect of openness and trade orientation on economic growth remains a highly contentious issue in the literature. Trade facilitates the spread of knowledge and the adoption of more advanced and efficient technologies, which hastens total factor productivity (TFP) growth and, hence, per capita income. New technologies that spread through trade require a sufficiently skilled labour force to adapt them to the domestic productive environment. Thus, openness and human capital accumulation will lead to TFP growth and the greater the complementarity between both variables, the higher the TFP growth. This paper discusses the implications of these assumptions and tests their empirical validity, using a pool of data for manufacturing industry in Spanish regions in a period in which both the stock of human capital and openness experienced a notable increase.

Capital humano local y productividad en las provincias españolas

En la última década, distintos estudios han intentado contrastar empíricamente la existencia de una relación entre el stock de capital humanolocal y la productividad del territorio, así como la posible presencia de economías externas asociadas a aquél. El resultado común de dichos estudios ha consistido en encontrar una correlación positiva entre ambas variables Losdiversos autores no coinciden, en cambio, a la hora de explicar dicho resultado: un primer grupo de autores argumenta la presencia de economíasexternas vinculadas al capital humano mientras que un segundo grupo plantea la existencia de relaciones de complementariedad entre los diversos factores productivos y, más en concreto, entre el capital humano y el capital físico.El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la existencia de una posible relación positiva entre el nivel de capital humano de las provincias españolas y su productividad de éstas y, a continuación, averiguar si el canal a través delcual se produce el efecto son las economías externas. Para ello, se aplica unametodología que consta de dos etapas. En la primera, se estima una ecuación de Mincer utilizando información de la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares a fin de obtener una estimación de la productividad media de cada una de las provincias españolas una vez controlado el efecto del capital humano de los individuos sobre su propia productividad. En una segunda etapa, la estimación de la productividad provincial media estimada se introduce como variable endógena en una nueva ecuación cuyas variables explicativas intentan aproximar el nivel de capital humano de cada una de las provincias. A partir de esta segunda regresión se detecta una relación positiva entre la productividad media estimada del territorio y el nivel educativo medio delmismo. Sin embargo, la principal conclusión del análisis realizado es que dicha relación no puede explicarse por el impacto de las economías externas generadas exógenamente por el capital humano, sino que debe atribuirse a otros efectos que, actuando también por lado de la demanda, impulsen al alza la productividad.

Public infrastructure and the performance of manufacturing industries: short-and long-run

We present a theoretical framework for determining the short- and long-run effects of infrastructure. While the short-run effects have been the focus of most previous studies, here we derive long-run elasticities by taking into account the adjustment of quasi-fixed inputs to their optimum levels. By considering the impact of infrastructure on private investment decisions, we observe how, apart from the direct effect on costs in the short-run, infrastructure exerts an indirect source of influence in the long-run through their effect on private capital. The model is applied to manufacturing industries in the Spanish regions

Assessing the assignation of public subsidies: Do the experts choose the most efficient R and D projects?

[spa] La implementación de un programa de subvenciones públicas a proyectos empresariales de I+D comporta establecer un sistema de selección de proyectos. Esta selección se enfrenta a problemas relevantes, como son la medición del posible rendimiento de los proyectos de I+D y la optimización del proceso de selección entre proyectos con múltiples y a veces incomparables medidas de resultados. Las agencias públicas utilizan mayoritariamente el método peer review que, aunque presenta ventajas, no está exento de críticas. En cambio, las empresas privadas con el objetivo de optimizar su inversión en I+D utilizan métodos más cuantitativos, como el Data Envelopment Análisis (DEA). En este trabajo se compara la actuación de los evaluadores de una agencia pública (peer review) con una metodología alternativa de selección de proyectos como es el DEA.