894 resultados para probability of error
Resumo:
This article introduces the concept of error recovery performance, followed by the development and validation of an instrument to measure it. The first objective of this article is to broaden the current concept of service recovery to be relevant to the back-of-house operations. The second objective is to examine the influence of leader behavioral integrity (BI) on error recovery performance. Moreover, the study examines the mediating effect of job satisfaction between BI and error recovery performance. Finally, the study links error management performance with work-unit effectiveness. Data for Study 1 were collected from 369 hotel employees in Turkey. The same relationships were tested again in Study 2 to validate the findings of Study 1 with a different sample. Data for Study 2 were collected from 33 departmental managers from the same hotels. Linear regression analysis was used to test the direct effects. The mediating effects were tested using the mediation test suggested by Preacher and Hayes. In addition, in Study 2, general managers of the hotels were asked to rate the effectiveness of each manager and their respective department. Results from Study 1 indicate that BI drives error recovery performance, and this impact is mediated by employee job satisfaction. Results of Study 2 confirm this model and finds further that managers’ self-rated error recovery performance was associated with their general managers’ assessment of their deliverables and of their department’s overall performance.
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This paper analyzes the inner relations between classical sub-scheme probability and statistic probability, subjective probability and objective probability, prior probability and posterior probability, transition probability and probability of utility, and further analysis the goal, method, and its practical economic purpose which represent by these various probability from the perspective of mathematics, so as to deeply understand there connotation and its relation with economic decision making, thus will pave the route for scientific predication and decision making.
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Knowledge of the geographical distribution of timber tree species in the Amazon is still scarce. This is especially true at the local level, thereby limiting natural resource management actions. Forest inventories are key sources of information on the occurrence of such species. However, areas with approved forest management plans are mostly located near access roads and the main industrial centers. The present study aimed to assess the spatial scale effects of forest inventories used as sources of occurrence data in the interpolation of potential species distribution models. The occurrence data of a group of six forest tree species were divided into four geographical areas during the modeling process. Several sampling schemes were then tested applying the maximum entropy algorithm, using the following predictor variables: elevation, slope, exposure, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). The results revealed that using occurrence data from only one geographical area with unique environmental characteristics increased both model overfitting to input data and omission error rates. The use of a diagonal systematic sampling scheme and lower threshold values led to improved model performance. Forest inventories may be used to predict areas with a high probability of species occurrence, provided they are located in forest management plan regions representative of the environmental range of the model projection area.
Resumo:
In the last few years there has been a great development of techniques like quantum computers and quantum communication systems, due to their huge potentialities and the growing number of applications. However, physical qubits experience a lot of nonidealities, like measurement errors and decoherence, that generate failures in the quantum computation. This work shows how it is possible to exploit concepts from classical information in order to realize quantum error-correcting codes, adding some redundancy qubits. In particular, the threshold theorem states that it is possible to lower the percentage of failures in the decoding at will, if the physical error rate is below a given accuracy threshold. The focus will be on codes belonging to the family of the topological codes, like toric, planar and XZZX surface codes. Firstly, they will be compared from a theoretical point of view, in order to show their advantages and disadvantages. The algorithms behind the minimum perfect matching decoder, the most popular for such codes, will be presented. The last section will be dedicated to the analysis of the performances of these topological codes with different error channel models, showing interesting results. In particular, while the error correction capability of surface codes decreases in presence of biased errors, XZZX codes own some intrinsic symmetries that allow them to improve their performances if one kind of error occurs more frequently than the others.
Resumo:
The Atlantic rainforest species Ocotea catharinensis, Ocotea odorifera, and Ocotea porosa have been extensively harvested in the past for timber and oil extraction and are currently listed as threatened due to overexploitation. To investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of these species, we developed 8 polymorphic microsatellite markers for O. odorifera from an enriched microsatellite library by using 2 dinucleotide repeats. The microsatellite markers were tested for cross-amplification in O. catharinensis and O. porosa. The average number of alleles per locus was 10.2, considering all loci over 2 populations of O. odorifera. Observed and expected heterozygosities for O. odorifera ranged from 0.39 to 0.93 and 0.41 to 0.92 across populations, respectively. Cross-amplification of all loci was successfully observed in O. catharinensis and O. porosa except 1 locus that was found to lack polymorphism in O. porosa. Combined probabilities of identity in the studied Ocotea species were very low ranging from 1.0 x 10-24 to 7.7 x 10-24. The probability of exclusion over all loci estimated for O. odorifera indicated a 99.9% chance of correctly excluding a random nonparent individual. The microsatellite markers described in this study have high information content and will be useful for further investigations on genetic diversity within these species and for subsequent conservation purposes.
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The aim of this cephalometric study was to evaluate the influence of the sagittal skeletal pattern on the 'Y-axis of growth' measurement in patients with different malocclusions. Lateral head films from 59 patients (mean age 16y 7m, ranging from 11 to 25 years) were selected after a subjective analysis of 1630 cases. Sample was grouped as follows: Group 1 - class I facial pattern; group 2 - class II facial pattern; and Group 3 - class III facial pattern. Two angular measurements, SNGoGn and SNGn, were taken in order to determine skeletal vertical facial pattern. A logistic regression with errors distributed according to a binomial distribution was used to test the influence of the sagittal relationship (Class I, II, III facial patterns) on vertical diagnostic measurement congruence (SNGoGn and SNGn). RESULTS show that the probability of congruence between the patterns SNGn and SNGoGn was relatively high (70%) for group 1, but for groups II (46%) and III (37%) this congruence was relatively low. The use of SNGn appears to be inappropriate to determine the vertical facial skeletal pattern of patients, due to Gn point shifting throughout sagittal discrepancies. Clinical Significance: Facial pattern determined by SNGn must be considered carefully, especially when severe sagittal discrepancies are present.
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Cardiac arrest after open surgery has an incidence of approximately 3%, of which more than 50% of the cases are due to ventricular fibrillation. Electrical defibrillation is the most effective therapy for terminating cardiac arrhythmias associated with unstable hemodynamics. The excitation threshold of myocardial microstructures is lower when external electrical fields are applied in the longitudinal direction with respect to the major axis of cells. However, in the heart, cell bundles are disposed in several directions. Improved myocardial excitation and defibrillation have been achieved by applying shocks in multiple directions via intracardiac leads, but the results are controversial when the electrodes are not located within the cardiac chambers. This study was designed to test whether rapidly switching shock delivery in 3 directions could increase the efficiency of direct defibrillation. A multidirectional defibrillator and paddles bearing 3 electrodes each were developed and used in vivo for the reversal of electrically induced ventricular fibrillation in an anesthetized open-chest swine model. Direct defibrillation was performed by unidirectional and multidirectional shocks applied in an alternating fashion. Survival analysis was used to estimate the relationship between the probability of defibrillation and the shock energy. Compared with shock delivery in a single direction in the same animal population, the shock energy required for multidirectional defibrillation was 20% to 30% lower (P < .05) within a wide range of success probabilities. Rapidly switching multidirectional shock delivery required lower shock energy for ventricular fibrillation termination and may be a safer alternative for restoring cardiac sinus rhythm.
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Pregnant women have a 2-3 fold higher probability of developing restless legs syndrome (RLS - sleep-related movement disorders) than general population. This study aims to evaluate the behavior and locomotion of rats during pregnancy in order to verify if part of these animals exhibit some RLS-like features. We used 14 female 80-day-old Wistar rats that weighed between 200 and 250 g. The rats were distributed into control (CTRL) and pregnant (PN) groups. After a baseline evaluation of their behavior and locomotor activity in an open-field environment, the PN group was inducted into pregnancy, and their behavior and locomotor activity were evaluated on days 3, 10 and 19 of pregnancy and in the post-lactation period in parallel with the CTRL group. The serum iron and transferrin levels in the CTRL and PN groups were analyzed in blood collected after euthanasia by decapitation. There were no significant differences in the total ambulation, grooming events, fecal boli or urine pools between the CTRL and PN groups. However, the PN group exhibited fewer rearing events, increased grooming time and reduced immobilization time than the CTRL group (ANOVA, p<0.05). These results suggest that pregnant rats show behavioral and locomotor alterations similar to those observed in animal models of RLS, demonstrating to be a possible animal model of this sleep disorder.
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We studied the clinical aspects of 100 consecutive premature newborns with and without intraventricular and periventricular hemorrhage (IPVH).The diagnosis of IPVH was obtained by ultrasonic scans of the skull during the first week of life and at the age of one month. Forty eight percent of newborns with IPVH had abnormal results, and there was a significant correlation with the neurological evaluation in 85% of the infants. The probability of normality for a child with no associated brain abnormalities was 72%, whereas for a child of the same gestational age with associated brain abnormalities was 48.7%.
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Size distributions in woody plant populations have been used to assess their regeneration status, assuming that size structures with reverse-J shapes represent stable populations. We present an empirical approach of this issue using five woody species from the Cerrado. Considering count data for all plants of these five species over a 12-year period, we analyzed size distribution by: a) plotting frequency distributions and their adjustment to the negative exponential curve and b) calculating the Gini coefficient. To look for a relationship between size structure and future trends, we considered the size structures from the first census year. We analyzed changes in number over time and performed a simple population viability analysis, which gives the mean population growth rate, its variance and the probability of extinction in a given time period. Frequency distributions and the Gini coefficient were not able to predict future trends in population numbers. We recommend that managers should not use measures of size structure as a basis for management decisions without applying more appropriate demographic studies.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the efficacy of cumulative doses (CDs) of 131I-iodide therapy (RIT) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The probability of progressive disease according to CDs was evaluated in patients < 45 years old and > 45 years old and correlated to tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), thyroglobulin values, histological types and variants, age, and zduration of the disease. RESULTS: At the end of a follow-up period of 69 ± 56 months, 85 out of 150 DTC patients submitted to fixed doses RIT had no evidence of disease, 47 had stable disease and 18 had progressive disease. Higher CDs were used in the more aggressive variants (p < 0.0001), higher TNM stages (p < 0.0001), and follicular carcinomas (p = 0.0034). Probability of disease progression was higher with CDs > 600 mCi in patients > 45 years old and with CDs > 800 mCi in patients < 45 years. CONCLUSION: Although some patients may still respond to high CDs, the impact of further RIT should be carefully evaluated and other treatment strategies may be warranted.
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Cross-amplification was tested and variability in microsatellite primers (designed for Neotropical parrots) compared, in five macaw species, viz., three endangered blue macaws (Cyanopsitta spixii [extinct in the wild], Anodorhynchus leari [endangered] and Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus [vulnerable]), and two unthreatened red macaws (Ara chloropterus and Ara macao). Among the primers tested, 84.6% successfully amplified products in C. spixii, 83.3% in A. leari, 76.4% in A. hyacinthinus, 78.6% in A. chloropterus and 71.4% in A. macao. The mean expected heterozygosity estimated for each species, and based on loci analyzed in all the five, ranged from 0.33 (A. hyacinthinus) to 0.85 (A. macao). As expected, the results revealed lower levels of genetic variability in threatened macaw species than in unthreatened. The low combined probability of genetic identity and the moderate to high potential for paternity exclusion, indicate the utility of the microsatellite loci set selected for each macaw species in kinship and population studies, thus constituting an aid in planning in-situ and ex-situ conservation.
Resumo:
The main goal of this paper is to establish some equivalence results on stability, recurrence, and ergodicity between a piecewise deterministic Markov process ( PDMP) {X( t)} and an embedded discrete-time Markov chain {Theta(n)} generated by a Markov kernel G that can be explicitly characterized in terms of the three local characteristics of the PDMP, leading to tractable criterion results. First we establish some important results characterizing {Theta(n)} as a sampling of the PDMP {X( t)} and deriving a connection between the probability of the first return time to a set for the discrete-time Markov chains generated by G and the resolvent kernel R of the PDMP. From these results we obtain equivalence results regarding irreducibility, existence of sigma-finite invariant measures, and ( positive) recurrence and ( positive) Harris recurrence between {X( t)} and {Theta(n)}, generalizing the results of [ F. Dufour and O. L. V. Costa, SIAM J. Control Optim., 37 ( 1999), pp. 1483-1502] in several directions. Sufficient conditions in terms of a modified Foster-Lyapunov criterion are also presented to ensure positive Harris recurrence and ergodicity of the PDMP. We illustrate the use of these conditions by showing the ergodicity of a capacity expansion model.
Resumo:
The purpose of the present research was to investigate the effects of polymorphisms of luteinizing hormone receptor (LHR) and follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR) genes, evaluated by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism in European-Zebu composite beef heifers from six different breed compositions. The polymorphism site analysis from digestion with HhaI and AluI restriction endonucleases allowed the genotype identification for LHR (TT, CT and CC) and FSHR (GG, CG and CC) genes. A high frequency of heterozygous animals was recorded in all breed compositions for both genes, except in two compositions for LHR. The probability of pregnancy (PP) at first breeding was used to evaluate the polymorphism effect on sexual precocity. The PP was analyzed as a binary trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. Heterozygous heifers showed a higher pregnancy rate (67 and 66% for LHR and FSHR genes, respectively), but no significant effects were observed for the genes studied (P=0.9188 and 0.8831 for LHR and FSHR, respectively) on the PP. These results do not justify the inclusion of LHR and FSHR restriction fragment length polymorphism markers in selection programs for sexual precocity in beef heifers. Nevertheless, these markers make possible the genotype characterization and may be used in additional studies to evaluate the genetic structure in other bovine populations.
Resumo:
We consider the one-dimensional asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) in which particles jump to the right at rate p is an element of (1/2, 1.] and to the left at rate 1 - p, interacting by exclusion. In the initial state there is a finite region such that to the left of this region all sites are occupied and to the right of it all sites are empty. Under this initial state, the hydrodynamical limit of the process converges to the rarefaction fan of the associated Burgers equation. In particular suppose that the initial state has first-class particles to the left of the origin, second-class particles at sites 0 and I, and holes to the right of site I. We show that the probability that the two second-class particles eventually collide is (1 + p)/(3p), where a collision occurs when one of the particles attempts to jump over the other. This also corresponds to the probability that two ASEP processes. started from appropriate initial states and coupled using the so-called ""basic coupling,"" eventually reach the same state. We give various other results about the behaviour of second-class particles in the ASEP. In the totally asymmetric case (p = 1) we explain a further representation in terms of a multi-type particle system, and also use the collision result to derive the probability of coexistence of both clusters in a two-type version of the corner growth model.