Hurricane Katrina and its Impact on Latin America

This issue of the FAL Bulletin contains the report prepared jointly in September 2005 by three ECLAC divisions (the Division of International Trade and Integration, the Economic Development Division and the Statistics and Economic Projections Division) on the consequences of Hurricane Katrina for the Latin American countries, especially in relation to international trade and macroeconomic impacts in the region. In addition, the web version of this issue includes two tables with data on United States imports from Latin American countries and the proportion that enters through the Port of New Orleans.  

Probability of remission of juvenile idiopathic arthritis following treatment with steroid joint injection

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Rapid Assessment of Seed Removal and Frugivore Activity as a Tool for Monitoring the Health Status of Tropical Forests

Ecological processes in tropical forests are being affected at unprecedented rates by human activities. Yet, the continuity of ecological functions like seed dispersal is crucial for forest regeneration. It thus becomes increasingly urgent to be able to rapidly assess the health status of these processes in order to take appropriate management measures. We tested a method to rapidly evaluate seed removal rates on two animal-dispersed tree species, Virola kwatae and V.michelii (Myristicaceae), at three sites in French Guiana with increasing levels of anthropogenic disturbance. We counted fallen fruits, fruit valves, and seeds of each focal fruiting tree in a single 1m2 quadrat, and calculated two indices: the proportion of seeds removed and the proportion of fruits opened by mammals. They both provide an indirect and rapid assessment of frugivore activity. Our results showed a significant decrease in the proportion of removed seeds (16%) and fruits opened (19%) at the most impacted site in comparison with the other two sites (79% for seeds, 60% and 35% for fruits). This testifies to an increased impoverishment of the primate and toucan communities at the disturbed sites. This standardized protocol provides fast information about the health status of the community of seed dispersers and predators and of their seed removal services. It is time- and cost-effective and is not species-specific, allowing comparisons among sites or over time. We suggest using it with the pantropical Myristicaceae and any other capsule-producing family to rapidly assess the health status of seed removal processes across the tropics.

Effect of mesenchymal stem cells on movement and urination of rats with spinal cord injury

Cell therapy has frequently been reported as a possible treatment for spinal trauma in humans and animals; however, without pharmacologically curative action on damage from the primary lesion. In this study, we evaluated the effect of administering human adipose-derived stem cells (hADSC) in rats after spinal cord injury. The hADSC were used between the third and fifth passages and a proportion of cells were transduced for screening in vivo after transplantation. Spinal cord injury was induced with a Fogarty catheter no. 3 inserted into the epidural space with a cuff located at T8 and filled with 80 mu L saline for 5 min. The control group A (n = 12) received culture medium (50 mu L) and group B (n = 12) received hADSC (1.2 x 10(6)) at 7 and 14 days post-injury, in the tail vein. Emptying of the bladder by massage was performed daily for 3 months. Evaluation of functional motor activity was performed daily until 3 months post-injury using the Basso-Beattie-Bresnahan scale. Subsequently, the animals were euthanized and histological analysis of the urinary bladder and spinal cord was performed. Bioluminescence analysis revealed hADSC at the application site and lungs. There was improvement of urinary bladder function in 83.3% animals in group B and 16.66% animals in group A. The analysis of functional motor activity and histology of the spinal cord and urinary bladder demonstrated no significant difference between groups A and B. The results indicate that transplanted hADSC improved urinary function via a telecrine mechanism, namely action at a distance.

Healing and expression of growth factors (TGF-β and PDGF) in canine radial ostectomy gap containing platelet-rich plasma

Objectives: To evaluate bone healing in an experimental radial ostectomy in dogs treated with autologous platelet-rich plasma (PRP), through histological, densitometric, radiographic studies, as well as expression of growth factors in the ostectomy gap. Methods: Twenty-one dogs were randomly divided into either a control or a PRP group. All underwent unilateral ostectomy of the radius to generate a gap of 2.0 mm, that was stabilized with external skeletal fixation. The ostectomy gap was either filled with PRP or left empty as a control. The radiographic and densitometric studies were performed after surgery, then at intervals until 60 days during the post-surgery period. Histological and immunohistochemical evaluations were performed at seven or 60 days post-surgery. Analyses were performed using a statistical analysis system, and the level of significance was set at p <0.05. Results: The median radiographic healing score in the PRP group increased significantly between day 0 and day 60. Furthermore, at 60 days, the median healing score and the proportion of healed ostectomies in the control group (score 1; 1/6 healed) and the PRP group (score 5; 4/5 healed) were significantly different. There were differences between groups in radiographic and densitometric values at days 45 and 60. The histological evaluation showed advanced bone healing at 60 days in the PRP group and signs of delayed union in the control group. Clinical relevance: Platelet-rich plasma can be used as an adjuvant therapy because it may promote better bone healing of a radial ostectomy treated with external skeletal fixation in dogs.

Wild Boar and Red Deer Display High Prevalences of Tuberculosis-Like Lesions in Spain

We describe the distribution of tuberculosis-like lesions (TBL) in wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Spain. Animals with TBL were confirmed in 84.21% of mixed populations (n = 57) of red deer and wild boar and in 75% of populations of wild boar alone (n = 8) in central and southern Spain (core area). The prevalence of TBL declined towards the periphery of this region. In the core area, the prevalence ranged up to 100% in local populations of wild boar (mean estate prevalence 42.51%) and up to 50% in red deer (mean estate prevalence 13.70%). We carried out exploratory statistical analyses to describe the epidemiology of TBL in both species throughout the core area. Prevalence of TBL increased with age in both species. Wild boar and red deer mean TBL prevalence at the estate level were positively associated, and lesion scores were consistently higher in wild boars than in red deer. The wild boar prevalence of TBL in wild boar did not differ between populations that were or were not cohabiting with red deer. Amongst the wild boars with TBL, 61.19% presented generalized lesions, and the proportion of generalized cases was similar between sex and age classes. In red deer, 57.14% of TBL-positive individuals presented generalized lesions, and the percentage of generalized cases increased with age class, but did not differ between the sexes. These results highlight the potential importance of wild boar and red deer in the maintenance of tuberculosis in south central Spain.

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Clusters of leprosy transmission and of late diagnosis in a highly endemic area in Brazil: focus on different spatial analysis approaches

Objective The Brazilian National Hansens Disease Control Program recently identified clusters with high disease transmission. Herein, we present different spatial analytical approaches to define highly vulnerable areas in one of these clusters. Method The study area included 373 municipalities in the four Brazilian states Maranha o, Para ', Tocantins and Piaui '. Spatial analysis was based on municipalities as the observation unit, considering the following disease indicators: (i) rate of new cases / 100 000 population, (ii) rate of cases < 15 years / 100 000 population, (iii) new cases with grade-2 disability / 100 000 population and (iv) proportion of new cases with grade-2 disabilities. We performed descriptive spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial scan statistic. Results A total of 254 (68.0%) municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (mean annual detection rates > 40 cases / 100 000 inhabitants). There was a concentration of municipalities with higher detection rates in Para ' and in the center of Maranha o. Spatial scan statistic identified 23 likely clusters of new leprosy case detection rates, most of them localized in these two states. These clusters included only 32% of the total population, but 55.4% of new leprosy cases. We also identified 16 significant clusters for the detection rate < 15 years and 11 likely clusters of new cases with grade-2. Several clusters of new cases with grade-2 / population overlap with those of new cases detection and detection of children < 15 years of age. The proportion of new cases with grade-2 did not reveal any significant clusters. Conclusions Several municipality clusters for high leprosy transmission and late diagnosis were identified in an endemic area using different statistical approaches. Spatial scan statistic is adequate to validate and confirm high-risk leprosy areas for transmission and late diagnosis, identified using descriptive spatial analysis and using local empirical Bayesian method. National and State leprosy control programs urgently need to intensify control actions in these highly vulnerable municipalities.

Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008: a time-series ecological study

The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with Sao Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata. IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In Sao Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in Sao Paulo.

Quality characteristics and fertilizing ability of ram sperm subpopulations separated by partition in an aqueous two-phase system

Centrifugal countercurrent distribution (CCCD) in an aqueous two-phase system (TPS) is a resolute technique revealing sperm heterogeneity and for the estimation of the fertilizing potential of a given semen sample. However, separated sperm subpopulations have never been tested for their fertilizing ability yet. Here, we have compared sperm quality parameters and the fertilizing ability of sperm subpopulations separated by the CCCD process from ram semen samples maintained at 20 degrees C or cooled down to 5 degrees C. Total and progressive sperm motility was evaluated by computer-assisted analysis using a CASA system and membrane integrity was evaluated by flow cytometry by staining with CFDA/Pl. The capacitation state, staining with chlortetracycline, and apoptosis-related markers, such as phosphatidylserine (PS) translocation detected with Annexin V. and DNA damage detected by the TUNEL assay, were determined by fluorescence microscopy. Additionally, the fertilizing ability of the fractionated subpopulations was comparative assessed by zona binding assay (ZBA). CCCD analysis revealed that the number of spermatozoa displaying membrane and DNA alterations was higher in samples chilled at 5 degrees C than at 20 degrees C. which can be reflected in the displacement to the left of the CCCD profiles. The spermatozoa located in the central and right chambers (more hydrophobic) presented higher values (P<0.01) of membrane integrity, lower PS translocation (P<0.05) and DNA damage (P<0.001) than those in the left part of the profile, where apoptotic markers were significantly increased and the proportion of viable non-capacitated sperm was reduced. We have developed a new protocol to recover spermatozoa from the CCCD fractions and we proved that these differences were related with the fertilizing ability determined by ZBA, because we found that the number of spermatozoa attached per oocyte was significantly higher for spermatozoa recovered from the central and right chambers, in both types of samples. This is the first time, to our knowledge that sperm recovered from a two-phase partition procedure are used for fertilization assays. These results open up new possibilities for using specific subpopulations of sperm for artificial insemination or in vitro fertilization, not only regarding better sperm quality but also certain characteristics such as subpopulations enriched in spermatozoa bearing X or Y chromosome that we have already isolated or any other feature. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of connectivity on the firing rate in a neuronal network with electrical and chemical synapses

We study the firing rate properties of a cellular automaton model for a neuronal network with chemical synapses. We propose a simple mechanism in which the nonlocal connections are included, through electrical and chemical synapses. In the latter case, we introduce a time delay which produces self-sustained activity. Nonlocal connections, or shortcuts, are randomly introduced according to a specified connection probability. There is a range of connection probabilities for which neuron firing occurs, as well as a critical probability for which the firing ceases in the absence of time delay. The critical probability for nonlocal shortcuts depends on the network size according to a power-law. We also compute the firing rate amplification factor by varying both the connection probability and the time delay for different network sizes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis in prison inmates

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalences of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis ill inmates. METHODS: Observational study was carried out with inmates of a prison and a jail in the State of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between March and December of 2008. Questionnaires were used to collect sociodemographic and epidemiological data. Tuberculin skin testing was administered (PPD-RT23-2TU/0.1 mL), and the following laboratory tests were also performed: sputum smear examination, sputum culture, identification of strains isolated and drug susceptibility testing. The variables were compared using Pearson's chi-square (chi(2)) association test, Fisher's exact test and the proportion test. RESULTS: Of the 2,435 inmates interviewed, 2,237(91.9%) agreed to submit to tuberculin skin testing and of these, 73.0% had positive reactions. The prevalence of tuberculosis was 830.6 per 100,000 inmates. The coefficients of prevalence were 1,029.5/100,000 for inmates of the prison and 525.7/100,000 for inmates of the jail. The sociodemographic characteristics of the inmates in the two groups studied were similar; most of the inmates were young and single with little schooling. The epidemiological characteristics differed between the prison units, with the number of cases of previous tuberculosis and of previous contact with the disease greater in the prison and coughing, expectoration and smoking more common in the jail. Among the 20 Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains identified, 95.0% were sensitive to anti-tuberculosis drugs, and 5.0% were resistant to streptomycin. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalences of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis were higher in the incarcerated population than in the general population, and they were also higher in the prison than in the jail.

The polysurvival model with long-term survivors

Long-term survival models have historically been considered for analyzing time-to-event data with long-term survivors fraction. However, situations in which a fraction (1 - p) of systems is subject to failure from independent competing causes of failure, while the remaining proportion p is cured or has not presented the event of interest during the time period of the study, have not been fully considered in the literature. In order to accommodate such situations, we present in this paper a new long-term survival model. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed as well as interval estimation and hypothesis tests. A real dataset illustrates the methodology.

Modelling shared attention through relational reinforcement learning

Shared attention is a type of communication very important among human beings. It is sometimes reserved for the more complex form of communication being constituted by a sequence of four steps: mutual gaze, gaze following, imperative pointing and declarative pointing. Some approaches have been proposed in Human-Robot Interaction area to solve part of shared attention process, that is, the most of works proposed try to solve the first two steps. Models based on temporal difference, neural networks, probabilistic and reinforcement learning are methods used in several works. In this article, we are presenting a robotic architecture that provides a robot or agent, the capacity of learning mutual gaze, gaze following and declarative pointing using a robotic head interacting with a caregiver. Three learning methods have been incorporated to this architecture and a comparison of their performance has been done to find the most adequate to be used in real experiment. The learning capabilities of this architecture have been analyzed by observing the robot interacting with the human in a controlled environment. The experimental results show that the robotic head is able to produce appropriate behavior and to learn from sociable interaction.

Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.