Self-efficacy as a predictor of outcome after residential treatment programs for alcohol dependence: simply ask the patient one question!

Self-efficacy has been identified as one of the most consistent variables that predict the outcome of alcohol treatment. However, many previous studies in this field failed to control for other important predictors (e.g., dependences severity, psychiatric symptoms, and treatment goal). Our study's first goal was to evaluate the predictive value of self-efficacy when most other relevant variables were statistically controlled. The second goal was to compare the predictive values of self-efficacy assessed with the Situational Confidence Questionnaire (SCQ), and general self-efficacy assessed with a single question.

Apolipoprotein B as a long-term predictor of mortality in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a 15-year follow up

To evaluate the association of apolipoprotein B (apo B) with mortality due to all causes, to cardiac disease and to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Severity of mucosal inflammation as a predictor for alterations of visceral sensory function in a rat model

Transient inflammation is known to alter visceral sensory function and frequently precede the onset of symptoms in a subgroup of patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Duration and severity of the initial inflammatory stimulus appear to be risk factors for the manifestation of symptoms. Therefore, we aimed to characterize dose-dependent effects of trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid (TNBS)/ethanol on: (1) colonic mucosa, (2) cytokine release and (3) visceral sensory function in a rat model. Acute inflammation was induced in male Lewis rats by single administration of various doses of TNBS/ethanol (total of 0.8, 0.4 or 0.2 ml) in test animals or saline in controls. Assessment of visceromotor response (VMR) to colorectal distensions, histological evaluation of severity of inflammation, and measurement of pro-inflammatory cytokine levels (IL-2, IL-6) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were performed 2h and 3, 14, 28, 31 and 42 days after induction. Increased serum IL-2 and IL-6 levels were evident prior to mucosal lesions 2h after induction of colitis and persist up to 14 days (p<0.05 vs. saline), although no histological signs of inflammation were detected at 14 days. In the acute phase, VMR was only significantly increased after 0.8 ml and 0.4 ml TNBS/ethanol (p<0.05 vs. saline). After 28 days, distension-evoked responses were persistently elevated (p<0.05 vs. saline) in 0.8 and 0.4 ml TNBS/ethanol-treated rats. In 0.2 ml TNBS/ethanol group, VMR was only enhanced after repeated visceral stimulation. Visceral hyperalgesia occurs after a transient colitis. However, even a mild acute but asymptomatic colitis can induce long-lasting visceral hyperalgesia in the presence of additional stimuli.

Corticosteroid-binding globulin: a possible early predictor of infection in acute necrotizing pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE: Infected pancreatic necrosis is the main cause of death in patients with acute pancreatitis, and therefore its early prediction is of utmost importance. Endogenous cortisol metabolism plays a basic role both in the course of acute pancreatitis and in the process of infection. The purpose of this study was to analyze corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG), total cortisol, calculated free cortisol and adrenocorticotropic hormone as potential early predictors in order to differentiate between infected pancreatic necrosis and sterile pancreatic necrosis in patients with acute pancreatitis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Serum levels of CBG, total cortisol, calculated free cortisol, and plasma levels of adrenocorticotropic hormone were determined in 109 consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis. C-reactive protein was measured as the control parameter. Thirty-five patients developed necrotizing pancreatitis and 10 developed infection of the necrosis. Blood was monitored for 6 days after the onset of pain; 30 healthy individuals served as controls. RESULTS: Of all parameters only CBG showed a significant difference (p = 0.0318) in its peak levels measured in the first 48 h in patients with sterile (26.5 microg/ml, range 21.3-34.7) and infected (16.0 microg/ml, range 15.2-25.0) necrosis at a cut-off level of 16.8 microg/ml. That difference was further preserved for the first 6 days after onset of pain. CONCLUSIONS: In our group of patients, a decreased CBG level below 16.8 g/ml within the initial 48 h of acute pancreatitis was an early predictor of later infected pancreatic necrosis, with a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 87.5%.

Hypermethylation of the DPYD promoter region is not a major predictor of severe toxicity in 5-fluorouracil based chemotherapy

BACKGROUND: The activity of dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD), the key enzyme of pyrimidine catabolism, is thought to be an important determinant for the occurrence of severe toxic reactions to 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), which is one of the most commonly prescribed chemotherapeutic agents for the treatment of solid cancers. Genetic variation in the DPD gene (DPYD) has been proposed as a main factor for variation in DPD activity in the population. However, only a small proportion of severe toxicities in 5-FU based chemotherapy can be explained with such rare deleterious DPYD mutations resulting in severe enzyme deficiencies. Recently, hypermethylation of the DPYD promoter region has been proposed as an alternative mechanism for DPD deficiency and thus as a major cause of severe 5-FU toxicity. METHODS: Here, the prognostic significance of this epigenetic marker with respect to severe 5-FU toxicity was assessed in 27 cancer patients receiving 5-FU based chemotherapy, including 17 patients experiencing severe toxic side effects following drug administration, none of which were carriers of a known deleterious DPYD mutation, and ten control patients. The methylation status of the DPYD promoter region in peripheral blood mononuclear cells was evaluated by analysing for each patient between 19 and 30 different clones of a PCR-amplified 209 base pair fragment of the bisulfite-modified DPYD promoter region. The fragments were sequenced to detect bisulfite-induced, methylation-dependent sequence differences. RESULTS: No evidence of DPYD promoter methylation was observed in any of the investigated patient samples, whereas in a control experiment, as little as 10% methylated genomic DNA could be detected. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that DYPD promoter hypermethylation is not of major importance as a prognostic factor for severe toxicity in 5-FU based chemotherapy.

Fluctuation analysis of lung function as a predictor of long-term response to beta2-agonists

The response to beta(2)-agonists differs between asthmatics and has been linked to subsequent adverse events, even death. Possible determinants include beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype at position 16, lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness. Fluctuation analysis provides a simple parameter alpha measuring the complex correlation properties of day-to-day peak expiratory flow. The present study investigated whether alpha predicts clinical response to beta(2)-agonist treatment, taking into account other conventional predictors. Analysis was performed on previously published twice-daily peak expiratory flow measurements in 66 asthmatic adults over three 6-month randomised order treatment periods: placebo, salbutamol and salmeterol. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the association between alpha during the placebo period and response to treatment (change in the number of days with symptoms), taking into account other predictors namely beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype, lung function and its variability, and airway hyperresponsiveness. The current authors found that alpha measured during the placebo period considerably improved the prediction of response to salmeterol treatment, taking into account genotype, lung function or its variability, or airway hyperresponsiveness. The present study provides further evidence that response to beta(2)-agonists is related to the time correlation properties of lung function in asthma. The current authors conclude that fluctuation analysis of lung function offers a novel predictor to identify patients who may respond well or poorly to treatment.

Temporary neurological dysfunction after surgery of the thoracic aorta: a predictor of poor outcome and impaired quality of life

BACKGROUND: Transient neurological dysfunction (TND) consists of postoperative confusion, delirium and agitation. It is underestimated after surgery on the thoracic aorta and its influence on long-term quality of life (QoL) has not yet been studied. This study aimed to assess the influence of TND on short- and long-term outcome following surgery of the ascending aorta and proximal arch. METHODS: Nine hundred and seven patients undergoing surgery of the ascending aorta and the proximal aortic arch at our institution were included. Two hundred and ninety patients (31.9%) underwent surgery because of acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) and 617 patients because of aortic aneurysm. In 547 patients (60.3%) the distal anastomosis was performed using deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA). TND was defined as a Glasgow coma scale (GCS) value <13. All surviving patients had a clinical follow up and QoL was assessed with an SF-36 questionnaire. RESULTS: Overall in-hospital mortality was 8.3%. TND occurred in 89 patients (9.8%). As compared to patients without TND, those who suffered from TND were older (66.4 vs 59.9 years, p<0.01) underwent more frequently emergent procedures (53% vs 32%, p<0.05) and surgery under DHCA (84.3% vs 57.7%, p<0.05). However, duration of DHCA and extent of surgery did not influence the incidence of TND. In-hospital mortality in the group of patients with TND compared to the group without TND was similar (12.0% vs 11.4%; p=ns). Patients with TND suffered more frequently from coronary artery disease (28% vs 20.8%, p=ns) and were more frequently admitted in a compromised haemodynamic condition (23.6% vs 9.9%, p<0.05). Postoperative course revealed more pulmonary complications such as prolonged mechanical ventilation. Additional to their transient neurological dysfunction, significantly more patients had strokes with permanent neurological loss of function (14.6% vs 4.8%, p<0.05) compared to the patients without TND. ICU and hospital stay were significantly prolonged in TND patients (18+/-13 days vs 12+/-7 days, p<0.05). Over a mean follow-up interval of 27+/-14 months, patients with TND showed a significantly impaired QoL. CONCLUSION: The neurological outcome following surgery of the ascending aorta and proximal aortic arch is of paramount importance. The impact of TND on short- and long-term outcome is underestimated and negatively affects the short- and long-term outcome.

IDH/MGMT-driven molecular classification of low-grade glioma is a strong predictor for long-term survival

BACKGROUND Low-grade gliomas (LGGs) are rare brain neoplasms, with survival spanning up to a few decades. Thus, accurate evaluations on how biomarkers impact survival among patients with LGG require long-term studies on samples prospectively collected over a long period. METHODS The 210 adult LGGs collected in our databank were screened for IDH1 and IDH2 mutations (IDHmut), MGMT gene promoter methylation (MGMTmet), 1p/19q loss of heterozygosity (1p19qloh), and nuclear TP53 immunopositivity (TP53pos). Multivariate survival analyses with multiple imputation of missing data were performed using either histopathology or molecular markers. Both models were compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The molecular model was reduced by stepwise model selection to filter out the most critical predictors. A third model was generated to assess for various marker combinations. RESULTS Molecular parameters were better survival predictors than histology (ΔAIC = 12.5, P< .001). Forty-five percent of studied patients died. MGMTmet was positively associated with IDHmut (P< .001). In the molecular model with marker combinations, IDHmut/MGMTmet combined status had a favorable impact on overall survival, compared with IDHwt (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.33, P< .01), and even more so the triple combination, IDHmut/MGMTmet/1p19qloh (HR = 0.18, P< .001). Furthermore, IDHmut/MGMTmet/TP53pos triple combination was a significant risk factor for malignant transformation (HR = 2.75, P< .05). CONCLUSION By integrating networks of activated molecular glioma pathways, the model based on genotype better predicts prognosis than histology and, therefore, provides a more reliable tool for standardizing future treatment strategies.