Objective quality of life, optimism, and social-juridical variables, as predictive ones of the subjective quality of life in disarmed Colombian persons

The goal of this research was to identify predic- tive psychosocial factors of the subjective quality of life in a group of 60 people, with ages between 19 and 57, from both sexes, included in the program of demobilization and social inclusion of the Pro- grama de la Alta Consejería para la Reintegración Social y Económica de Personas y Grupos Alzados en Armas en Colombia. this research was a predic- tive correlational descriptive study. the Question- naire of optimism/Pessimism was used to assess the optimist or pessimist trend, and, for assess the quality of life, these strategies were combined: a home visit to value the objective quality of life, the Analogous scale of subjective Quality of Life to value satisfaction and well-being, and a general format to collect socio-demographic and juridical information. Results show that some variables as perceived health, optimism, educational level, re- ligious believes, objective quality of life, type of demobilization and years spent in the armed group operating outside the law, are associated to better levels of perceived quality of life. The findings and limitations of the study are discussed.  

Indicators of nitrate in wetland surface and soil-waters: interactions of vegetation and environmental factors

This paper describes a new bio-indicator method for assessing wetland ecosystem health: as such, the study is particularly relevant to current legislation such as the EU Water Framework Directive, which provides a baseline of the current status Of Surface waters. Seven wetland sites were monitored across northern Britain, with model construction data for predicting, eco-hydroloplical relationships collected from five sites during 1999, Two new sites and one repeat site were monitored during 2000 to provide model test data. The main growing season for the vegetation, and hence the sampling period, was May-August during both years. Seasonal mean concentrations of nitrate (NO3-) in surface and soil water samples during 1999 ranged from 0.01 to 14.07 mg N 1(-1), with a mean value of 1.01 mg N 1(-1). During 2000, concentrations ranged from trace level (<0.01 m- N 1(-1)) to 9.43 mg N 1(-1), with a mean of 2.73 mg N 1(.)(-1) Surface and soil-water nitrate concentrations did not influence plant species composition significantly across representative tall herb fen and mire communities. Predictive relationships were found between nitrate concentrations and structural characteristics of the wetland vegetation, and a model was developed which predicted nitrate concentrations from measures of plant diversity, canopy structure and density of reproductive structures. Two further models, which predicted stem density and density of reproductive structures respectively, utilised nitrate concentration as one of the independent predictor variables. Where appropriate, the models were tested using data collected during 2000. This approach is complementary to species-based monitoring, representing a useful and simple too] to assess ecological status in target wetland systems and has potential for bio-indication purposes.

Challenges in identifying factors which determine the placement of children in care? An international review

Placing a child in out-of-home care is one of the most important decisions made by professionals in the child care system, with substantial social, psychological, educational, medical and economic consequences. This paper considers the challenges and difficulties of building statistical models of this decision by reviewing the available international evidence. Despite the large number of empirical investigations over a 50 year period, a consensus on the variables associated with this decision is hard to identify. In addition, the individual models have low explanatory and predictive power and should not be relied on to make placement decisions. A number of reasons for this poor performance are offered, and some ways forwards suggested. This paper also aims to facilitate the emergence of a coherent and integrated international literature from the disconnected and fragmented empirical studies. Rather than one placement problem, there are many slightly different problems, and therefore it is expected that a number of related sub-literatures will emerge, each concentrating on a particular definition of the placement problem.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Local adaptation in migrated interior Douglas-fir seedlings is mediated by ectomycorrhizas and other soil factors

Separating edaphic impacts on tree distributions from those of climate and geography is notoriously difficult. Aboveground and belowground factors play important roles, and determining their relative contribution to tree success will greatly assist in refining predictive models and forestry strategies in a changing climate. In a common glasshouse, seedlings of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) from multiple populations were grown in multiple forest soils. Fungicide was applied to half of the seedlings to separate soil fungal and nonfungal impacts on seedling performance. Soils of varying geographic and climatic distance from seed origin were compared, using a transfer function approach. Seedling height and biomass were optimized following seed transfer into drier soils, whereas survival was optimized when elevation transfer was minimised. Fungicide application reduced ectomycorrhizal root colonization by c. 50%, with treated seedlings exhibiting greater survival but reduced biomass. Local adaptation of Douglas-fir populations to soils was mediated by soil fungi to some extent in 56% of soil origin by response variable combinations. Mediation by edaphic factors in general occurred in 81% of combinations. Soil biota, hitherto unaccounted for in climate models, interacts with biogeography to influence plant ranges in a changing climate.

Menopausal status: A possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Objectives: To evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study design: This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (FIR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). Conclusion: Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of turnout invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status). (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intrinsically Multivariate Predictive Genes

Canalizing genes possess such broad regulatory power, and their action sweeps across a such a wide swath of processes that the full set of affected genes are not highly correlated under normal conditions. When not active, the controlling gene will not be predictable to any significant degree by its subject genes, either alone or in groups, since their behavior will be highly varied relative to the inactive controlling gene. When the controlling gene is active, its behavior is not well predicted by any one of its targets, but can be very well predicted by groups of genes under its control. To investigate this question, we introduce in this paper the concept of intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) genes, and present a mathematical study of IMP in the context of binary genes with respect to the coefficient of determination (CoD), which measures the predictive power of a set of genes with respect to a target gene. A set of predictor genes is said to be IMP for a target gene if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are bad predictors of the target but the full predictor set predicts the target with great accuracy. We show that logic of prediction, predictive power, covariance between predictors, and the entropy of the joint probability distribution of the predictors jointly affect the appearance of IMP genes. In particular, we show that high-predictive power, small covariance among predictors, a large entropy of the joint probability distribution of predictors, and certain logics, such as XOR in the 2-predictor case, are factors that favor the appearance of IMP. The IMP concept is applied to characterize the behavior of the gene DUSP1, which exhibits control over a central, process-integrating signaling pathway, thereby providing preliminary evidence that IMP can be used as a criterion for discovery of canalizing genes.

Towards identifying factors underlying readiness for online learning: an exploratory study

To test the potential value of McVay's (2000) Readiness for Online Learning questionnaire for research and practice, the instrument was administered to 107 undergraduate university students drawn from a range of courses in the United States and Australia. The questionnaire was subjected to a reliability analysis and a factor analysis. The instrument fared well in the reliability analysis, and yielded a two-factor structure that was readily interpretable in a framework of existing theory and research. Factors identified were "Comfort with e-learning" and "Self-management of learning." It is suggested that the instrument is useful for both research and practice, but would be enhanced through further work on 5 of the 13 items. Additionally, further work is required to establish predictive validity.

Evaluation of the robustness of predictive yield models based on catchment characteristics using GIS for reservoir fisheries in Sri Lanka

Land-use patterns in the catchment areas of Sri Lankan reservoirs, which were quantified using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), were used to develop quantitative models for yield prediction. The validity of these models was evaluated through the application to five reservoirs that were not used in the development of the models, and by comparing with the actual fish yield data of these reservoirs collected by an independent body. The robustness of the predictive models developed was tested by principal component analysis (PCA) on limnological characteristics, land-use patterns of the catchments and fish yields. The predicted fish yields in five Sri Lankan reservoirs, using the empirical models based on the ratios of forest cover and/or shrub cover to reservoir capacity or reservoir area were in close agreement with the observed fish yields. The scores of PCA ordination of productivity-related limnological parameters and those of land-use patterns were linearly related to fish yields. The relationship between the PCA scores of limnological characteristics and land-use types had the appropriate algebraic form, which substantiates the influence of the limnological factors and land-use types on reservoir fish yields. It is suggested that the relatively high predictive power of the models developed on the basis of GIS methodologies can be used for more accurate assessment of reservoir fisheries. The study supports the importance and the need for an integrated management strategy for the whole watershed to enhance fish yields.

Low back pain and disability in community-based women : prevalence and association factors

Objective: Although low back pain is characterized by both pain and disability, there is a paucity of studies that have concurrently examined risk factors for these features in community-dwelling women. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and identify factors associated with both back pain and disability.

Design: A questionnaire was mailed to 542 women from a community-based research database. Detailed demographic data were collected, including participants' menopause, relationship, and employment status. Point and period prevalence estimates for back pain were derived. Participants were classified based on pain intensity and disability scores calculated from the Chronic Pain Grade Questionnaire, and factors associated with high levels of pain and disability were examined.

Results: A total of 506 (93.4%) women completed the questionnaire. More than 90% of participants had experienced low back pain, with 75.1% and 22.5% reporting pain in the past 12 months and currently, respectively. Seven percent of women reported a high level of disability and 16% reported high-intensity pain. Women with higher levels of disability were more likely to have a higher body mass index and to have pain currently, whereas those with greater pain intensity were more likely to be younger, have a higher body mass index, not be employed outside the home, drink alcohol, and have current pain.

Conclusions: Low back pain is a common problem for community-based women. A high body mass index and current pain were factors independently associated with both high pain intensity and disability. Longitudinal investigation is required to determine the predictive nature of these factors and their potential role in preventing pain and disability.

Risk and protective factors for adolescent substance use in Washington State, the United States and Victoria, Australia : a longitudinal study

Purpose
To compare the levels of risk and protective factors and the predictive influence of these factors on alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use over a 12-month follow-up period in Washington State in the United States and in Victoria, Australia.

Method
The study involved a longitudinal school-based survey of students drawn as a two-stage cluster sample recruited through schools, and administered in the years 2002 and 2003 in both states. The study used statewide representative samples of students in the seventh and ninth grades (n = 3,876) in Washington State and Victoria.

Results
Washington State students, relative to Victorian students, had higher rates of cannabis use but lower rates of alcohol and tobacco use at time 1. Levels of risk and protective factors showed few but important differences that contribute to the explanation of differences in substance use; Washington State students, relative to Victorian students, reported higher religiosity (odds ratio, .96 vs. .79) and availability of handguns (odds ratio, 1.23 vs. 1.18), but less favorable peer, community, and parental attitudes to substance use. The associations with substance use at follow-up are generally comparable, but in many instances were weaker in Washington State.

Conclusions
Levels of risk and protective factors and their associations with substance use at follow-up were mostly similar in the two states. Further high-quality longitudinal studies to establish invariance in the relations between risk and protective factors and substance use in adolescence across diverse countries are warranted.

A longitudinal study of the effect of psychosocial factors on exclusive breastfeeding duration

Objective
to examine the effect of psychosocial factors on exclusive breastfeeding duration to six months postpartum

Design
longitudinal, prospective questionnaire based study.

Setting
participants were recruited from a publically funded antenatal clinic located in the western metropolitan region of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia and asked to complete questionnaires at three time points; 32 weeks pregnancy, two months postpartum and six months postpartum.

Participants
the participants were 125 pregnant women aged 22–44 years.

Measurements and findings
psychosocial variables such as breastfeeding self-efficacy, body attitude, psychological adjustment, attitude towards pregnancy, intention, confidence and motivation to exclusively breastfeed and importance of exclusive breastfeeding were assessed using a range of psychometrically validated tools. Exclusive breastfeeding behaviour up to six months postpartum was also measured. At 32 weeks gestation a woman׳s confidence to achieve exclusive breastfeeding was a direct predictor of exclusive breastfeeding duration to six months postpartum. At two months postpartum, psychological adjustment and breastfeeding self-efficacy were predictive of exclusive breastfeeding duration. Finally, at six months postpartum, psychological adjustment, breastfeeding self-efficacy, confidence to maintain and feeling fat were directly predictive of exclusive breastfeeding duration.

Demographic risk factors for alcohol-related aggression in and around licensed venues

AIMS: Few studies have examined the role of gender and both area-level and individual socio-economic status (SES) as independent predictors of alcohol-related aggression (ARA) in and around licensed venues. METHODS: The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between gender, area-level SES and individual SES (operationalised as occupational category) and ARA in and around licensed venues. The sample comprised 697 men and 649 women aged 16-47, who completed a patron intercept survey as part of a larger study assessing trends in harm and stakeholders' views surrounding local community level interventions in dealing with alcohol-related problems in the night-time economy. RESULTS: Binary logistic regression analyses showed that age, gender, occupational category, area-level SES and level of intoxication at time of interview were all significant predictors of involvement in ARA. Being male doubled the odds of involvement in ARA, while age was a protective factor. Blue collar workers had more than double the odds of ARA involvement of professionals, while those living in the most socio-economically disadvantaged areas were over twice as likely to report experiencing ARA compared to those living in the most advantaged areas. However, assessment of the predictive model by gender revealed that effects of age, occupational category and area-level SES were restricted to male participants, with greater intoxication no longer predictive. CONCLUSIONS: ARA among patrons was significantly more likely to occur among men, those in blue collar occupations, and individuals living in low SES areas, suggesting both individual and area-level disadvantage may play a role in ARA.

Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors

Background : Violence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors.

Aims : To investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia.

Method : A total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.

Results : Over a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n = 1535) and 5.7% of women (n = 281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder.

Conclusions : Clinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance.