Local adaptation in migrated interior Douglas-fir seedlings is mediated by ectomycorrhizas and other soil factors

Separating edaphic impacts on tree distributions from those of climate and geography is notoriously difficult. Aboveground and belowground factors play important roles, and determining their relative contribution to tree success will greatly assist in refining predictive models and forestry strategies in a changing climate. In a common glasshouse, seedlings of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) from multiple populations were grown in multiple forest soils. Fungicide was applied to half of the seedlings to separate soil fungal and nonfungal impacts on seedling performance. Soils of varying geographic and climatic distance from seed origin were compared, using a transfer function approach. Seedling height and biomass were optimized following seed transfer into drier soils, whereas survival was optimized when elevation transfer was minimised. Fungicide application reduced ectomycorrhizal root colonization by c. 50%, with treated seedlings exhibiting greater survival but reduced biomass. Local adaptation of Douglas-fir populations to soils was mediated by soil fungi to some extent in 56% of soil origin by response variable combinations. Mediation by edaphic factors in general occurred in 81% of combinations. Soil biota, hitherto unaccounted for in climate models, interacts with biogeography to influence plant ranges in a changing climate.

Menopausal status: A possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Objectives: To evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study design: This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (FIR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). Conclusion: Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of turnout invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status). (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intrinsically Multivariate Predictive Genes

Canalizing genes possess such broad regulatory power, and their action sweeps across a such a wide swath of processes that the full set of affected genes are not highly correlated under normal conditions. When not active, the controlling gene will not be predictable to any significant degree by its subject genes, either alone or in groups, since their behavior will be highly varied relative to the inactive controlling gene. When the controlling gene is active, its behavior is not well predicted by any one of its targets, but can be very well predicted by groups of genes under its control. To investigate this question, we introduce in this paper the concept of intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) genes, and present a mathematical study of IMP in the context of binary genes with respect to the coefficient of determination (CoD), which measures the predictive power of a set of genes with respect to a target gene. A set of predictor genes is said to be IMP for a target gene if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are bad predictors of the target but the full predictor set predicts the target with great accuracy. We show that logic of prediction, predictive power, covariance between predictors, and the entropy of the joint probability distribution of the predictors jointly affect the appearance of IMP genes. In particular, we show that high-predictive power, small covariance among predictors, a large entropy of the joint probability distribution of predictors, and certain logics, such as XOR in the 2-predictor case, are factors that favor the appearance of IMP. The IMP concept is applied to characterize the behavior of the gene DUSP1, which exhibits control over a central, process-integrating signaling pathway, thereby providing preliminary evidence that IMP can be used as a criterion for discovery of canalizing genes.

Comparison between 100-g glucose tolerance test and two other screening tests for gestational diabetes: combined fasting glucose with risk factors and 50-g glucose tolerance test

CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: A falta de consenso sobre os protocolos de rastreamento e diagnóstico do diabetes gestacional, associada às dificuldades na realização do teste oral simplificado do diabete gestacional (o teste de tolerância a 100 g de glicose, considerado padrão-ouro) justificam a comparação com alternativas. O objetivo deste trabalho é comparar o teste padrão-ouro a dois testes de rastreamento: associação de glicemia de jejum e fatores de risco (GJ + FR) e o teste oral simplificado de tolerância a 50 g de glicose (TTG 50 g), com o teste de tolerância a 100 g de glicose (TTG 100 g). TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Estudo de coorte longitudinal, prospectivo, realizado no Serviço de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia do Hospital Universitário da Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul. MÉTODOS: 341 gestantes foram submetidas aos três testes. Calcularam-se os índices de sensibilidade (S), especificidade (E), valores preditivos (VPP e VPN), razões de probabilidade (RPP e RPN) e resultados falsos (FP e FN), positivos e negativos da associação GJ + FR e do TTG 50 g em relação ao TTG 100 g. Compararam-se as médias das glicemias de uma hora pós-sobrecarga (1hPS) com 50 e 100 g. Na análise estatística, empregou-se o teste t de Student, com limite de significância de 5%. RESULTADOS: A associação GJ + FR encaminhou mais gestantes (53,9%) para a confirmação diagnóstica que o TTG 50 g (14,4%). Os dois testes foram equivalentes nos índices de S (86,4 e 76,9%), VPN (98,7 e 98,9%), RPN (0,3 e 0,27) e FN (15,4 e 23,1%). As médias das glicemias 1hPS foram semelhantes, 106,8 mg/dl para o TTG 50 g e 107,5 mg/dl para o TTG 100 g. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados da eficiência diagnóstica associados à simplicidade, praticabilidade e custo referendaram a associação GJ + FR como o mais adequado para o rastreamento. A equivalência das glicemias de 1hPS permitiram a proposição de um novo protocolo de rastreamento e diagnóstico do diabete gestacional, com menores custo e desconforto.

Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model

O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.

Predictive capacity of anthropometric indicators for abdominal fat in the oldest old

Cardiovascular diseases are a growing public health problem that affects most people over the age of 65 years and abdominal obesity is one of the risk factors for the development of these diseases. There are several methods that can be used to measure body fat, but their accuracy needs to be evaluated, especially in specific populations such as the elderly. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of anthropometric indicators to estimate the percentage of abdominal fat in subjects aged 80 years or older. A total of 125 subjects ranging in age from 80 to 95 years (83.5 ± 3), including 79 women (82.4 ± 3 years) and 46 men (83.6 ± 3 years), were studied. The following anthropometric indicators were used: body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). The percentage of abdominal fat was measured by DEXA. Sensitivity and specificity were analyzed using an ROC curve. The sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 0. 578, 0. 934 and 0. 756 for BMI, respectively; 0.703, 0.820 and 0.761 for WC; 0.938, 0.213 and 0.575 for WHR, and 0.984, 0.344 and 0.664 for WHtR. BMI and WC were the anthropometric indicators with the largest area under the curve and were therefore more adequate to identify the presence or absence of abdominal obesity.

Risk factors for magnetic resonance imaging-detected patellofemoral and tibiofemoral cartilage loss during a six-month period: The Joints On Glucosamine study

Objective To assess several baseline risk factors that may predict patellofemoral and tibiofemoral cartilage loss during a 6-month period. Methods For 177 subjects with chronic knee pain, 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of both knees was performed at baseline and followup. Knees were semiquantitatively assessed, evaluating cartilage morphology, subchondral bone marrow lesions, meniscal morphology/extrusion, synovitis, and effusion. Age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), bone marrow lesions, meniscal damage/extrusion, synovitis, effusion, and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion were evaluated as possible risk factors for cartilage loss. Logistic regression models were applied to predict cartilage loss. Models were adjusted for age, sex, treatment, and BMI. Results Seventy-nine subregions (1.6%) showed incident or worsening cartilage damage at followup. None of the demographic risk factors was predictive of future cartilage loss. Predictors of patellofemoral cartilage loss were effusion, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 3.5 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.39.4), and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion with an adjusted OR of 4.3 (95% CI 1.314.1). Risk factors for tibiofemoral cartilage loss were baseline meniscal extrusion (adjusted OR 3.6 [95% CI 1.310.1]), prevalent bone marrow lesions (adjusted OR 4.7 [95% CI 1.119.5]), and prevalent cartilage damage (adjusted OR 15.3 [95% CI 4.947.4]). Conclusion Cartilage loss over 6 months is rare, but may be detected semiquantitatively by 3T MRI and is most commonly observed in knees with Kellgren/Lawrence grade 3. Predictors of patellofemoral cartilage loss were effusion and prevalent cartilage damage in the same subregion. Predictors of tibiofemoral cartilage loss were prevalent cartilage damage, bone marrow lesions, and meniscal extrusion.

Secondary production of sandy beach macrofauna: An evaluation of predictive models

During the last three decades, several predictive models have been developed to estimate the somatic production of macroinvertebrates. Although the models have been evaluated for their ability to assess the production of macrobenthos in different marine ecosystems, these approaches have not been applied specifically to sandy beach macrofauna and may not be directly applicable to this transitional environment. Hence, in this study, a broad literature review of sandy beach macrofauna production was conducted and estimates obtained with cohort-based and size-based methods were collected. The performance of nine models in estimating the production of individual populations from the sandy beach environment, evaluated for all taxonomic groups combined and for individual groups separately, was assessed, comparing the production predicted by the models to the estimates obtained from the literature (observed production). Most of the models overestimated population production compared to observed production estimates, whether for all populations combined or more specific taxonomic groups. However, estimates by two models developed by Cusson and Bourget provided best fits to measured production, and thus represent the best alternatives to the cohort-based and size-based methods in this habitat. The consistent performance of one of these Cusson and Bourget models, which was developed for the macrobenthos of sandy substrate habitats (C&B-SS), shows that the performance of a model does not depend on whether it was developed for a specific taxonomic group. Moreover, since some widely used models (e.g., the Robertson model) show very different responses when applied to the macrofauna of different marine environments (e.g., sandy beaches and estuaries), prior evaluation of these models is essential.

Oral health as a predictive factor for oral mucositis

OBJECTIVES: Oral mucositis is a complication frequently associated with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, decreasing a patient’s quality of life and increasing the occurrence of opportunistic infections. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and severity of oral mucositis and to assess the correlation of this disease with the oral health of an individual at the time of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. METHODS: Before transplantation, patients’ oral health and inflammatory conditions were determined using the gingival index and the plaque index, which are based on gingival bleeding and the presence of dental plaque, respectively. Additionally, the dental health status was determined using the decayed, missing, and filled teeth index. The monitoring of oral mucositis was based on the World Health Organization grading system and was performed for five periods: from Day 0 to D+5, from D+6 to D+10, from D+11 to D+15, from D+16 to D+20, and from D+21 to D+30. RESULTS: A total of 97 patients (56% male and 44% female) who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation at the Hospital das Clinicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo between January 2008 and July 2009 were prospectively examined. The incidence of ulcerative mucositis was highest from days +6 to +10 and from days +11 to +15 in the patients who underwent autologous and allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, respectively. CONCLUSION: The data, including the dental plaque and periodontal status data, showed that these oral health factors were predictive of the incidence and severity of oral mucositis in a cohort of patients with similar conditioning regimens before hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Factors structuring Fucus communities at open and complex coastlines in the Baltic Sea

This thesis deals with physical factors and biological interactions affecting the distribution of two fucoid species, Fucus vesiculosus and F. serratus, in the Baltic Sea. Studies have been carried out in two quite different environments: an archipelago, and an open rocky coast. The archipelago has an extremely long coastline with a heterogeneous submerged landscape of different substrate types, slopes, water qualities, and degrees of wave exposure. The factors influencing F. vesiculosus distribution, morphology and epiphyte composition were studied in the Stockholm archipelago using field surveys and spatial modelling in Geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS-method to estimate wave exposure was developed and validated by comparing the result to an index based on vertical zonation of lichens. Wave exposure was considered an important factor for predicting the distribution of F. vesiculosus by its ability to clean hard surfaces from silt, and a predictive model was constructed based on the information of wave exposure and slope of the shore. It is suggested that the lower distribution boundary of attached F. vesiculosus is set by sediment in sheltered parts of the archipelago, and by light availability in highly wave exposed parts. The morphology of F. vesiculosus was studied over a wave exposure gradient, and several characters responded in accordance with earlier studies. However, when separating effects of wave exposure from effects of other confounding water property parameters, only thallus width was significantly different. Several water property parameters were shown to be correlated with wave exposure in the Stockholm archipelago, and the mechanism responsible for the effects on F. vesiculosus morphology is discussed. The composition of epiphytes on F. vesiculosus varied over a wave exposure gradient with a positive correlation to Elachista fucicola, and a negative to Chorda filum. At an open coast the physical environment is much less heterogeneous compared to an archipelago. The distributions of F. vesiculosus, F. serratus, turf-forming algae, and the seafloor substrate, were surveyed along the open coasts of Öland and Gotland. Turf-forming algae dominated all hard substrates in the area, and Polysiphonia fucoides was most abundant. At the Gotland coast F. vesiculosus was less abundant than at the Öland coast, and F. serratus occurred only in the southern-most part. Fucus serratus was increasingly more common towards south which was interpreted as an effect mainly of the Baltic salinity gradient, or the variation of salinity that has occurred in the past. The effects of turf-forming algae and sediment on F. serratus recruitment at 7 m depth off the Öland east coast were studied in the field, and by laboratory experiments. Almost no recruits were found in the algal turf outside the F. serratus patches. More fine sediment was found in the turf than in the F. serratus patches, suggesting that the turf accumulates sediment by decreasing resuspension. Both filamentous algae and sediment decreased the attachment ability of F. serratus zygotes and survival of recruits, and sediment had the strongest effect. It is therefore suggested that F. serratus has difficulties recruiting outside its patches, and that these difficulties are enforced by the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, which has favoured growth of filamentous algae and increased sedimentation. An overall conclusion is that Fucus distribution is affected by large-scale-factors, such as the eutrophication and salinity changes of the Baltic Sea, as well as by small-scale variation in wave exposure, substrate and slope, and by surface competition with neighbouring species.

Biomedical engineering for healthy ageing. Predictive tools for falls

Falls are common and burdensome accidents among the elderly. About one third of the population aged 65 years or more experience at least one fall each year. Fall risk assessment is believed to be beneficial for fall prevention. This thesis is about prognostic tools for falls for community-dwelling older adults. We provide an overview of the state of the art. We then take different approaches: we propose a theoretical probabilistic model to investigate some properties of prognostic tools for falls; we present a tool whose parameters were derived from data of the literature; we train and test a data-driven prognostic tool. Finally, we present some preliminary results on prediction of falls through features extracted from wearable inertial sensors. Heterogeneity in validation results are expected from theoretical considerations and are observed from empirical data. Differences in studies design hinder comparability and collaborative research. According to the multifactorial etiology of falls, assessment on multiple risk factors is needed in order to achieve good predictive accuracy.

Older Breast Cancer Survivors: Factors Associated with Self-reported Symptoms of Persistent Lymphedema Over 7 years of Follow-up

Lymphedema of the arm is a common complication of breast cancer with symptoms that can persist over long periods of time. For older women (over 50% of breast cancer cases) it means living with the potential for long-term complications of persistent lymphedema in conjunction with the common diseases and disabilities of aging over survivorship. We identified women > or =65 years diagnosed with primary stage I-IIIA breast cancer. Data were collected over 7 years of follow-up from consenting patients' medical records and telephone interviews. Data collected included self-reported symptoms of persistent lymphedema, breast cancer characteristics, and selected sociodemographic and health-related characteristics. The overall prevalence of symptoms of persistent lymphedema was 36% over 7 years of follow-up. Having stage II or III (OR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.07-2.93) breast cancer and having a BMI >30 (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.69-5.45) were statistically significantly predictive of symptoms of persistent lymphedema. Women > or =80 years were less likely to report symptoms of persistent lymphedema when compared to younger women (OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.18-0.95). Women with symptoms of persistent lymphedema consistently reported worse general mental health and physical function. Symptoms of persistent lymphedema were common in this population of older breast cancer survivors and had a noticeable effect on both physical function and general mental health. Our findings provide evidence of the impact of symptoms of persistent lymphedema on the quality of survivorship of older women. Clinical and research efforts focused on risk factors for symptoms of persistent lymphedema in older breast cancer survivors may lead to preventative and therapeutic measures that help maintain their health and well-being over increasing periods of survivorship.

Predictive value of the Acute Low Back Pain Screening Questionnaire and the Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire for persisting problems

A small proportion of individuals with non-specific low back pain (NSLBP) develop persistent problems. Up to 80% of the total costs for NSLBP are owing to chronic NSLBP. Psychosocial factors have been described to be important in the transition from acute to chronic NSLBP. Guidelines recommend the use of the Acute Low Back Pain Screening Questionnaire (ALBPSQ) and the Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ) to identify individuals at risk of developing persistent problems, such as long-term absence of work, persistent restriction in function or persistent pain. These instruments can be used with a cutoff value, where patients with values above the threshold are further assessed with a more comprehensive examination.

Vitrectomy for juvenile uveitis: prognostic factors for the long-term functional outcome

PURPOSE: This study evaluated the long-term effect of pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) in children and adolescents with chronic uveitis on visual function, anatomical outcome, and the requirement of systemic treatment. Further, predictive preoperative factors associated with a beneficial visual outcome were assessed. METHODS: Retrospective review of 29 eyes of 23 consecutive paediatric and juvenile patients below 20 years of age with chronic uveitis who underwent a PPV for visually significant opacities in 25 eyes, vitreous haemorrhage in three eyes, and retinal detachment in one eye. The clinical diagnosis was chronic intermediate uveitis in 22 eyes and retinal vasculitis of different origin in seven eyes. RESULTS: LogMAR visual acuity improved from an average of 0.91 to 0.33 (P<0.001). Cystoid macular oedema (CME) was significantly reduced in eight of 10 eyes postoperatively (P=0.021). In the multiple regression analysis, a low preoperative logMAR visual acuity and the presence of a CME had a negative influence on the final logMAR visual acuity. Furthermore, the appearance of chronic uveitis relapses was significantly reduced from 15 eyes before to seven eyes after surgery (P=0.042). CONCLUSIONS: PPV has a beneficial effect on the course and the complications of chronic uveitis in paediatric and juvenile patients with respect to the anatomical and visual outcome. Preoperative logMAR visual acuity and clinically significant CME were the most accurate predictors for the functional outcome.

Identification of prognostic factors for chronicity in patients with low back pain: a review of screening instruments

Low back pain (LBP) is currently the most prevalent and costly musculoskeletal problem in modern societies. Screening instruments for the identification of prognostic factors in LBP may help to identify patients with an unfavourable outcome. In this systematic review screening instruments published between 1970 and 2007 were identified by a literature search. Nine different instruments were analysed and their different items grouped into ten structures. Finally, the predictive effectiveness of these structures was examined for the dependent variables including "work status", "functional limitation", and "pain". The strongest predictors for "work status" were psychosocial and occupational structures, whereas for "functional limitation" and "pain" psychological structures were dominating. Psychological and occupational factors show a high reliability for the prognosis of patients with LBP. Screening instruments for the identification of prognostic factors in patients with LBP should include these factors as a minimum core set.