Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964), and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

The identification, distribution and persistence of oxamyl and its degradation products in planted corn seed, seedling root and soil from oxamyl-treated corn seeds

A simple method was developed for treating corn seeds with oxamyl. It involved soaking the seeds to ensure oxamyl uptake, centrifugation to draw off excess solution, and drying under a stream of air to prevent the formation of fungus. The seeds were found to have an even distribution of oxamyl. Seeds remained fungus-free even 12 months after treatment. The highest nonphytotoxic treatment level was obtained by using a 4.00 mg/mL oxamyl solution. Extraction methods for the determination of oxamyl (methyl-N'N'-dimethyl-N-[(methylcarbamoyl)oxy]-l-thiooxamimidate), its oxime (methyl-N',N'-dimethyl-N-hydroxy-1-thiooxamimidate), and DMCF (N,N-dimethyl-1-cyanoformanade) in seed" root, and soil were developed. Seeds were processed by homogenizing, then shaking in methanol. Significantly more oxamyl was extracted from hydrated seeds as opposed to dry seeds. Soils were extracted by tumbling in methanol; recoveries range~ from 86 - 87% for oxamyl. Root was extracted to 93% efficiency for oxamyl by homogenizing the tissue in methanol. NucharAttaclay column cleanup afforded suitable extracts for analysis by RP-HPLC on a C18 column and UV detection at 254 nm. In the degradation study, oxamyl was found to dissipate from the seed down into the soil. It was also detected in the root. Oxime was detected in both the seed and soil, but not in the root. DMCF was detected in small amounts only in the seed.

High precision Mg isotope measurements of meteoritic samples by secondary ion mass spectrometry

The possibility of establishing an accurate relative chronology of the early solar system events based on the decay of short-lived Al-26 to Mg-26 (half-life of 0.72 Myr) depends on the level of homogeneity (or heterogeneity) of Al-26 and Mg isotopes. However, this level is difficult. to constrain precisely because of the very high precision needed for the determination of isotopic ratios, typically of +/- 5 ppm. In this study, we report for the first time a detailed analytical protocol developed for high precision in situ Mg isotopic measurements ((25)mg/(24)mg and (26)mg/Mg-24 ratios, as well as Mg-26 excess) by MC-SIMS. As the data reduction process is critical for both accuracy and precision of the final isotopic results, factors such as the Faraday cup (FC) background drift and matrix effects on instrumental fractionation have been investigated. Indeed these instrumental effects impacting the measured Mg-isotope ratios can be as large or larger than the variations we are looking for to constrain the initial distribution of Al-26 and Mg isotopes in the early solar system. Our results show that they definitely are limiting factors regarding the precision of Mg isotopic compositions, and that an under- or over-correction of both FC background instabilities and instrumental isotopic fractionation leads to important bias on delta Mg-25, delta(26)mg and Delta Mg-26 values (for example, olivines not corrected for FC background drifts display Delta Mg-26 values that can differ by as much as 10 ppm from the truly corrected value). The new data reduction process described here can then be applied to meteoritic samples (components of chondritic meteorites for instance) to accurately establish their relative chronology of formation.

Transmission of cocoa swollen shoot virus by seeds

A study was undertaken to determine whether cocoa swollen shoot virus is transmitted by seeds, to improve the robustness of quarantine procedures for international exchange and long term conservation of cocoa germplasm. PCR/capillary electrophoresis, using cocoa swollen shoot virus primers designed from the most conserved regions of the six published cocoa genome sequences, allowed the detection of cocoa swollen shoot virus in all the component parts of cocoa seeds from cocoa swollen shoot virus-infected trees. PCR/capillary electrophoresis revealed the presence of cocoa swollen shoot virus in seedlings raised from seeds obtained from cocoa swollen shoot virus-infected trees. The high frequency with which the virus was transmitted through the seedlings suggested that cocoa swollen shoot virus is transmitted by seeds. This has serious implications for cocoa germplasm conservation and distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Germination performance of congeneric Styrax species from the Cerrado sensu lato areas and their distribution pattern in different physiognomies

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influence of mobility models in precision spray aided by wireless sensor networks

Precision Spray is a technique to increase performance of Precision Agriculture. This spray technique may be aided by a Wireless Sensor Network, however, for such approach, the communication between the agricultural input applicator vehicle and network is critical due to its proper functioning. Thus, this work analyzes how the number of nodes in a wireless sensor network, its type of distribution and different areas of scenario affects the performance of communication. We performed simulations to observe system's behavior changing to find the most fitted non-controlled mobility model to the system.

Constraints on parton distribution functions and extraction of the strong coupling constant from the inclusive jet cross section in pp collisions at root s=7TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Towards higher precision and operational use of optical homodyne tomograms

We present the results of an operational use of experimentally measured optical tomograms to determine state characteristics (purity) avoiding any reconstruction of quasiprobabilities. We also develop a natural way how to estimate the errors (including both statistical and systematic ones) by an analysis of the experimental data themselves. Precision of the experiment can be increased by postselecting the data with minimal (systematic) errors. We demonstrate those techniques by considering coherent and photon-added coherent states measured via the time-domain improved homodyne detection. The operational use and precision of the data allowed us to check purity-dependent uncertainty relations and uncertainty relations for Shannon and Renyi entropies.

Spatial variability of soil fertility and its relationship with seed physiological potential in a soybean production area

The correlation of soil fertility x seed physiological potential is very important in the area of seed technology but results published with that theme are contradictory. For this reason, this study to evaluate the correlations between soil chemical properties and physiological potential of soybean seeds. On georeferenced points, both soil and seeds were sampled for analysis of soil fertility and seed physiological potential. Data were assessed by the following analyses: descriptive statistics; Pearson's linear correlation; and geostatistics. The adjusted parameters of the semivariograms were used to produce maps of spatial distribution for each variable. Organic matter content, Mn and Cu showed significant effects on seed germination. Most variables studied presented moderate to high spatial dependence. Germination and accelerated aging of seeds, and P, Ca, Mg, Mn, Cu and Zn showed a better fit to spherical semivariogram: organic matter, pH and K had a better fit to Gaussian model; and V% and Fe showed a better fit to the linear model. The values for range of spatial dependence varied from 89.9 m for P until 651.4 m for Fe. These values should be considered when new samples are collected for assessing soil fertility in this production area.

Quantile-Based Optimization of Noisy Computer Experiments with Tunable Precision

This article addresses the issue of kriging-based optimization of stochastic simulators. Many of these simulators depend on factors that tune the level of precision of the response, the gain in accuracy being at a price of computational time. The contribution of this work is two-fold: first, we propose a quantile-based criterion for the sequential design of experiments, in the fashion of the classical expected improvement criterion, which allows an elegant treatment of heterogeneous response precisions. Second, we present a procedure for the allocation of the computational time given to each measurement, allowing a better distribution of the computational effort and increased efficiency. Finally, the optimization method is applied to an original application in nuclear criticality safety. This article has supplementary material available online. The proposed criterion is available in the R package DiceOptim.

Distribution of deep-sea foraminifera in surface sediments east of New Zealand

Paleobathymetric assessments of fossil foraminiferal faunas play a significant role in the analysis of the paleogeographic, sedimentary, and tectonic histories of New Zealand's Neogene marine sedimentary basins. At depths >100 m, these assessments often have large uncertainties. This study, aimed at improving the precision of paleodepth assessments, documents the present-day distribution of deep-sea foraminifera (>63 µm) in 66 samples of seafloor sediment at 90-700 m water depth (outer shelf to mid-abyssal), east of New Zealand. One hundred and thirty-nine of the 465 recorded species of benthic foraminifera are new records for the New Zealand region. Characters of the foraminiferal faunas which appear to provide the most useful information for estimating paleobathymetry are, in decreasing order of reliability: relative abundance of common benthic species; benthic species associations; upper depth limits of key benthic species; and relative abundance of planktic foraminifera. R mode cluster analysis on the quantitative census data of the 58 most abundant species of benthic foraminifera produced six species associations within three higher level clusters: (1) calcareous species most abundant at mid-bathyal to outer shelf depths (<1000 m); (2) calcareous species most abundant at mid-bathyal and greater depths (>600 m); (3) agglutinated species mostly occurring at deep abyssal depths (>3000 m). A detrended correspondence analysis ordination plot exhibits a strong relationship between these species associations and bathymetry. This is manifest in the bathymetric ranges of the relative abundance peaks of many of the common benthic species (e.g., Abditodentrix pseudothalmanni 500-2800 m, Bolivina robusta 200-650 m, Bulimina marginata f. marginata 20-600 m, B. marginata f. aculeata 400-3000 m, Cassidulina norvangi 1000-4500 m, Epistominella exigua 1000-4700 m, and Trifarina angulosa 10-650 m), which should prove useful in paleobathymetric estimates. The upper depth limits of 28 benthic foraminiferal species (e.g., Fursenkoina complanata 200 m, Bulimina truncana 450 m, Melonis affinis 550 m, Eggerella bradyi 750 m, and Cassidulina norvangi 1000 m) have potential to improve the precision of paleobathymetric estimates based initially on the total faunal composition. The planktic percentage of foraminiferal tests increases from outer shelf to upper abyssal depths followed by a rapid decline within the foraminiferal lysocline (below c. 3600 m). A planktic percentage <50% is suggestive of shelf depths, and >50% is suggestive of bathyal or abyssal depths above the CCD. In the abyssal zone there is dramatic taphonomic loss of most agglutinated tests (except some textulariids) at burial depths of 0.1-0.2 m, which negates the potential usefulness of these taxa in paleobathymetric assessments.

Optimisation of a crossdocking distribution centre simulation model

This paper reports on continuing research into the modelling of an order picking process within a Crossdocking distribution centre using Simulation Optimisation. The aim of this project is to optimise a discrete event simulation model and to understand factors that affect finding its optimal performance. Our initial investigation revealed that the precision of the selected simulation output performance measure and the number of replications required for the evaluation of the optimisation objective function through simulation influences the ability of the optimisation technique. We experimented with Common Random Numbers, in order to improve the precision of our simulation output performance measure, and intended to use the number of replications utilised for this purpose as the initial number of replications for the optimisation of our Crossdocking distribution centre simulation model. Our results demonstrate that we can improve the precision of our selected simulation output performance measure value using Common Random Numbers at various levels of replications. Furthermore, after optimising our Crossdocking distribution centre simulation model, we are able to achieve optimal performance using fewer simulations runs for the simulation model which uses Common Random Numbers as compared to the simulation model which does not use Common Random Numbers.

Design of an Experimental Rig to Characterize the Gust Response of Small Wind Turbines and Autorotating Seeds

This thesis investigates the rotational behavior of abstracted small-wind-turbine rotors exposed to a sudden increase in oncoming flow velocity, i.e. a gust. These rotors consisted of blades with aspect ratios characteristic of samara seeds, which are known for their ability to maintain autorotation in unsteady wind. The models were tested in a towing tank using a custom-built experimental rig. The setup was designed and constructed to allow for the measurement of instantaneous angular velocity of a rotor model towed at a prescribed kinematic profile along the tank. The conclusions presented in this thesis are based on the observed trends in effective angle-of-attack distribution, tip speed ratio, angular velocity, and time delay in the rotational response for each of rotors over prescribed gust cases. It was found that the blades with the higher aspect ratio had higher tip speed ratios and responded faster than the blades with a lower aspect ratio. The decrease in instantaneous tip speed ratio during the onset of a prescribed gust correlated with the time delay in each rotor model's rotational response. The time delays were found to increase nonlinearly with decreasing durations over which the simulated gusts occurred.

Effects of dark or of red, blue or white light on germination of subterranean clover seeds

Dry or imbibed seeds of the negatively photoblastic burr burying subterranean clover cv. ‘Seaton Park’ were treated with dark or with red, blue or white light to evaluate the effects of light on seed germination. Dry seeds treated with constant white light, red light or blue light during 8 days and subsequently incubated in dark had final germination and duration of germination reduced, and the distribution of germination changed from highly asymmetric to symmetric respectively. Imbibing seeds incubated under constant blue or white light had final germination strongly reduced seven days after sowing (7.3% and 50.1% of the germination under dark) with significant differences between them. After transferral to dark, true complete recovery of germination of seeds treated with white light was observed 19 days after sowing, but only partial recovery in seeds treated with blue light. Results of dry and imbibed seeds are consistent with no activity of phytochromes, as expected in negatively photoblastic seeds. Results of dry seeds are seemingly contradictory because total germination data imply the inactivity of red and blue light photoreceptors, the opposite being implied by duration and shape of germination. A tentative hypothetical solution for the contradiction is presented. Results of imbibed seeds are fully consistent with cryptochromes but not with phototropins mediation of responses to light of seed germination in ‘Seaton Park’. The ecological and adaptive significance of such responses are discussed in the framework of light attenuation in soil and the requirement and ability of subterranean clover ‘Seaton Park’ to bury seeds.

Adaptive dual control of topic-based information retrieval

Information Retrieval is an important albeit imperfect component of information technologies. A problem of insufficient diversity of retrieved documents is one of the primary issues studied in this research. This study shows that this problem leads to a decrease of precision and recall, traditional measures of information retrieval effectiveness. This thesis presents an adaptive IR system based on the theory of adaptive dual control. The aim of the approach is the optimization of retrieval precision after all feedback has been issued. This is done by increasing the diversity of retrieved documents. This study shows that the value of recall reflects this diversity. The Probability Ranking Principle is viewed in the literature as the “bedrock” of current probabilistic Information Retrieval theory. Neither the proposed approach nor other methods of diversification of retrieved documents from the literature conform to this principle. This study shows by counterexample that the Probability Ranking Principle does not in general lead to optimal precision in a search session with feedback (for which it may not have been designed but is actively used). Retrieval precision of the search session should be optimized with a multistage stochastic programming model to accomplish the aim. However, such models are computationally intractable. Therefore, approximate linear multistage stochastic programming models are derived in this study, where the multistage improvement of the probability distribution is modelled using the proposed feedback correctness method. The proposed optimization models are based on several assumptions, starting with the assumption that Information Retrieval is conducted in units of topics. The use of clusters is the primary reasons why a new method of probability estimation is proposed. The adaptive dual control of topic-based IR system was evaluated in a series of experiments conducted on the Reuters, Wikipedia and TREC collections of documents. The Wikipedia experiment revealed that the dual control feedback mechanism improves precision and S-recall when all the underlying assumptions are satisfied. In the TREC experiment, this feedback mechanism was compared to a state-of-the-art adaptive IR system based on BM-25 term weighting and the Rocchio relevance feedback algorithm. The baseline system exhibited better effectiveness than the cluster-based optimization model of ADTIR. The main reason for this was insufficient quality of the generated clusters in the TREC collection that violated the underlying assumption.