Bayesian analysis of a mastitis control plan to investigate the influence of veterinary prior beliefs on clinical interpretation

The fundamental objective for health research is to determine whether changes should be made to clinical decisions. Decisions made by veterinary surgeons in the light of new research evidence are known to be influenced by their prior beliefs, especially their initial opinions about the plausibility of possible results. In this paper, clinical trial results for a bovine mastitis control plan were evaluated within a Bayesian context, to incorporate a community of prior distributions that represented a spectrum of clinical prior beliefs. The aim was to quantify the effect of veterinary surgeons’ initial viewpoints on the interpretation of the trial results. A Bayesian analysis was conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures. Stochastic models included a financial cost attributed to a change in clinical mastitis following implementation of the control plan. Prior distributions were incorporated that covered a realistic range of possible clinical viewpoints, including scepticism, enthusiasm and uncertainty. Posterior distributions revealed important differences in the financial gain that clinicians with different starting viewpoints would anticipate from the mastitis control plan, given the actual research results. For example, a severe sceptic would ascribe a probability of 0.50 for a return of <£5 per cow in an average herd that implemented the plan, whereas an enthusiast would ascribe this probability for a return of >£20 per cow. Simulations using increased trial sizes indicated that if the original study was four times as large, an initial sceptic would be more convinced about the efficacy of the control plan but would still anticipate less financial return than an initial enthusiast would anticipate after the original study. In conclusion, it is possible to estimate how clinicians’ prior beliefs influence their interpretation of research evidence. Further research on the extent to which different interpretations of evidence result in changes to clinical practice would be worthwhile.

Un pasaje controvertido en los Annales de Eutiquio de Alejandría. El ataque judío a la ciudad de Tiro

En los Annales compuestos por el patriarca Eutiquio de Alejandría encontramos algunos pasajes originales, que no están presentes en otras fuentes, por lo que muchos estudiosos han descartado su verosimilitud. No obstante, hay que tener muy presente el contexto h istórico en el que este personaje vivió, en contacto tanto con musulmanes como con judíos. Un ejemplo de esto es el relato que hace del ataque de los judíos contra la ciudad fenicia de Tiro durante la guerra romano-persa (603-628), calificado como fantasioso. Sin embargo, cambia la perspectiva cuando se lo relaciona con textos apocalípticos de la tradición hebrea.

Some misspecfication problems in long-memory time series models

Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics

Polymorphisms affecting vitamin D-binding protein modify the relationship between serum vitamin D (25[OH]D3) and food allergy

BACKGROUND: There is evolving evidence that vitamin D insufficiency may contribute to food allergy, but findings vary between populations. Lower vitamin D-binding protein (DBP) levels increase the biological availability of serum vitamin D. Genetic polymorphisms explain almost 80% of the variation in binding protein levels. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate whether polymorphisms that lower the DBP could compensate for adverse effects of low serum vitamin D on food allergy risk. METHODS: From a population-based cohort study (n = 5276) we investigated the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25[OH]D3) levels and food allergy at age 1 year (338 challenge-proven food-allergic and 269 control participants) and age 2 years (55 participants with persistent and 50 participants with resolved food allergy). 25(OH)D3 levels were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and adjusted for season of blood draw. Analyses were stratified by genotype at rs7041 as a proxy marker of DBP levels (low, the GT/TT genotype; high, the GG genotype). RESULTS: Low serum 25(OH)D3 level (≤50 nM/L) at age 1 years was associated with food allergy, particularly among infants with the GG genotype (odds ratio [OR], 6.0; 95% CI, 0.9-38.9) but not in those with GT/TT genotypes (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.2-2.0; P interaction = .014). Maternal antenatal vitamin D supplementation was associated with less food allergy, particularly in infants with the GT/TT genotype (OR, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.03-0.41). Persistent vitamin D insufficiency increased the likelihood of persistent food allergy (OR, 12.6; 95% CI, 1.5-106.6), particularly in those with the GG genotype. CONCLUSIONS: Polymorphisms associated with lower DBP level attenuated the association between low serum 25(OH)D3 level and food allergy, consistent with greater vitamin D bioavailability in those with a lower DBP level. This increases the biological plausibility of a role for vitamin D in the development of food allergy.

Financial incentives for living kidney donors: are they necessary?

In the face of the perceived failure of altruistic organ donation programs to generate sufficient kidneys to meet demand, introducing financial incentives for living donors is sometimes argued as the only effective strategy by which lives currently lost while awaiting kidney transplantation might be saved. This argument from life-saving necessity is implicit in many incentive proposals, but rarely challenged by opponents. The core empirical claims on which it rests are thus rarely interrogated: that the gap between supply of and demand for donor kidneys is large and growing, the current system cannot meet demand, and financial incentives would increase the overall supply of kidneys and thus save lives. We consider these claims in the context of the United States. While we acknowledge the plausibility of claims that incentives, if sufficiently large, may successfully recruit greater numbers of living donors, we argue that strategies compatible with the existing altruistic system may also increase the supply of kidneys and save lives otherwise lost to kidney failure. We conclude that current appeals to the life-saving necessity argument have yet to establish sufficient grounds to justify trials of incentives.

Rise of the machines: a critical consideration of automated leadership decision making in organizations

Machines are increasingly becoming a substitute for human skills and intelligence in a number of fields where decisions that are crucial to group performance have to be taken under stringent constraints—for example, when an army contingent has to devise battlefield tactics or when a medical team has to diagnose and treat a life-threatening condition or illness. We hypothesize a scenario where similar machine-based intelligent technology is available to support, and even substitute human decision making in an organizational leadership context. We do not engage in any metaphysical debate on the plausibility of such a scenario. Rather, we contend that given what we observe in several other fields of human decision making, such a scenario may very well eventuate in the near future. We argue a number of “positives” that can be expected to emerge out of automated group and organizational leadership decision making. We also posit several anti-theses—“negatives” that can also potentially emerge from the hypothesized scenario and critically consider their implications. We aim to bring leadership and organization theorists, as well as researchers in machine intelligence, together at the discussion table for the first time and postulate that while leadership decision making in a group/organizational context could be effectively delegated to an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based decision system, this would need to be subject to the devising of crucial safeguarding conditions.

À contre-courant du progrès : une esquisse de la pensée de Christopher Lasch

En retraçant le parcours intellectuel de l’historien, moraliste et critique américain Christopher Lasch, ce mémoire vise à mettre en exergue la pertinence et les subtilités de sa pensée politique. Sur la base d’une analyse de ses principaux textes, nous démontrerons, qu’au-delà du pessimisme et du catastrophisme qui lui sont généralement attribués, Lasch porte un regard fécond sur la singularité de l’époque contemporaine. Nous soutiendrons que ses critiques acerbes sur la société et l’individu sont faites, avant tout, dans le but de remédier aux carences morales et sociétales qui auraient engendré un certain idéal libéral progressiste. Selon Lasch, le déploiement continu et illimité de cet idéal est en dissonance avec le caractère essentiellement contingent et conflictuel de la condition humaine. Parallèlement, nous présenterons les incidences psychiques qui se traduisent par une « culture du narcissisme » suscitée notamment par diverses composantes de la société contemporaine. À travers une relecture de la condition humaine, Lasch préconise un correctif idéologique qui est axé sur les notions de limites et d’espoir et qui se trouve au sein de la tradition agraire populiste américaine du 19e siècle. Nous démontrerons ainsi comment ce retour en arrière est entamé dans le but de susciter un renouveau politique et identitaire au sein de la société. L’étude se conclura par une discussion sur la plausibilité de l’idéal populiste, tel que l’entend Lasch, à l’ère du 21e siècle.

À contre-courant du progrès : une esquisse de la pensée de Christopher Lasch

En retraçant le parcours intellectuel de l’historien, moraliste et critique américain Christopher Lasch, ce mémoire vise à mettre en exergue la pertinence et les subtilités de sa pensée politique. Sur la base d’une analyse de ses principaux textes, nous démontrerons, qu’au-delà du pessimisme et du catastrophisme qui lui sont généralement attribués, Lasch porte un regard fécond sur la singularité de l’époque contemporaine. Nous soutiendrons que ses critiques acerbes sur la société et l’individu sont faites, avant tout, dans le but de remédier aux carences morales et sociétales qui auraient engendré un certain idéal libéral progressiste. Selon Lasch, le déploiement continu et illimité de cet idéal est en dissonance avec le caractère essentiellement contingent et conflictuel de la condition humaine. Parallèlement, nous présenterons les incidences psychiques qui se traduisent par une « culture du narcissisme » suscitée notamment par diverses composantes de la société contemporaine. À travers une relecture de la condition humaine, Lasch préconise un correctif idéologique qui est axé sur les notions de limites et d’espoir et qui se trouve au sein de la tradition agraire populiste américaine du 19e siècle. Nous démontrerons ainsi comment ce retour en arrière est entamé dans le but de susciter un renouveau politique et identitaire au sein de la société. L’étude se conclura par une discussion sur la plausibilité de l’idéal populiste, tel que l’entend Lasch, à l’ère du 21e siècle.