Fresnel analysis of wave propagation in nonlinear electrodynamics

We study wave propagation in local nonlinear electrodynamical models. Particular attention is paid to the derivation and the analysis of the Fresnel equation for the wave covectors. For the class of local nonlinear Lagrangian nondispersive models, we demonstrate how the originally quartic Fresnel equation factorizes, yielding the generic birefringence effect. We show that the closure of the effective constitutive (or jump) tensor is necessary and sufficient for the absence of birefringence, i.e., for the existence of a unique light cone structure. As another application of the Fresnel approach, we analyze the light propagation in a moving isotropic nonlinear medium. The corresponding effective constitutive tensor contains nontrivial skewon and axion pieces. For nonmagnetic matter, we find that birefringence is induced by the nonlinearity, and derive the corresponding optical metrics.

Relax and fix heuristics to solve one-stage one-machine lot-scheduling models for small-scale soft drink plants

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Damage detection in nonlinear structures using discrete-time volterra series

Structural damage identification is basically a nonlinear phenomenon; however, nonlinear procedures are not used currently in practical applications due to the complexity and difficulty for implementation of such techniques. Therefore, the development of techniques that consider the nonlinear behavior of structures for damage detection is a research of major importance since nonlinear dynamical effects can be erroneously treated as damage in the structure by classical metrics. This paper proposes the discrete-time Volterra series for modeling the nonlinear convolution between the input and output signals in a benchmark nonlinear system. The prediction error of the model in an unknown structural condition is compared with the values of the reference structure in healthy condition for evaluating the method of damage detection. Since the Volterra series separate the response of the system in linear and nonlinear contributions, these indexes are used to show the importance of considering the nonlinear behavior of the structure. The paper concludes pointing out the main advantages and drawbacks of this damage detection methodology. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications.

Planejamento de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica de média tensão através de um algoritmo de busca dispersa

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Mechanical nociceptive thresholds using four probe configurations in horses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reduced-order modelling, circuit-level design and SOI fabrication of microelectromechanical resonators

This thesis deals with two important research aspects concerning radio frequency (RF) microresonators and switches. First, a new approach for compact modeling and simulation of these devices is presented. Then, a combined process flow for their simultaneous fabrication on a SOI substrate is proposed. Compact models for microresonators and switches are extracted by applying mathematical model order reduction (MOR) to the devices finite element (FE) description in ANSYS c° . The behaviour of these devices includes forms of nonlinearities. However, an approximation in the creation of the FE model is introduced, which enables the use of linear model order reduction. Microresonators are modeled with the introduction of transducer elements, which allow for direct coupling of the electrical and mechanical domain. The coupled system element matrices are linearized around an operating point and reduced. The resulting macromodel is valid for small signal analysis around the bias point, such as harmonic pre-stressed analysis. This is extremely useful for characterizing the frequency response of resonators. Compact modelling of switches preserves the nonlinearity of the device behaviour. Nonlinear reduced order models are obtained by reducing the number of nonlinearities in the system and handling them as input to the system. In this way, the system can be reduced using linear MOR techniques and nonlinearities are introduced directly in the reduced order model. The reduction of the number of system nonlinearities implies the approximation of all distributed forces in the model with lumped forces. Both for microresonators and switches, a procedure for matrices extraction has been developed so that reduced order models include the effects of electrical and mechanical pre-stress. The extraction process is fast and can be done automatically from ANSYS binary files. The method has been applied for the simulation of several devices both at devices and circuit level. Simulation results have been compared with full model simulations, and, when available, experimental data. Reduced order models have proven to conserve the accuracy of finite element method and to give a good description of the overall device behaviour, despite the introduced approximations. In addition, simulation is very fast, both at device and circuit level. A combined process-flow for the integrated fabrication of microresonators and switches has been defined. For this purpose, two processes that are optimized for the independent fabrication of these devices are merged. The major advantage of this process is the possibility to create on-chip circuit blocks that include both microresonators and switches. An application is, for example, aswitched filter bank for wireless transceiver. The process for microresonators fabrication is characterized by the use of silicon on insulator (SOI) wafers and on a deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) step for the creation of the vibrating structures in single-crystal silicon and the use of a sacrificial oxide layer for the definition of resonator to electrode distance. The fabrication of switches is characterized by the use of two different conductive layers for the definition of the actuation electrodes and by the use of a photoresist as a sacrificial layer for the creation of the suspended structure. Both processes have a gold electroplating step, for the creation of the resonators electrodes, transmission lines and suspended structures. The combined process flow is designed such that it conserves the basic properties of the original processes. Neither the performance of the resonators nor the performance of the switches results affected by the simultaneous fabrication. Moreover, common fabrication steps are shared, which allows for cheaper and faster fabrication.

Implications of regional fault distribution and kinematics for the uplift of rift flanks around the Rwenzori Mountains, Southwestern Uganda

Das Ziel dieser Arbeit bestand in der Untersuchung der Störungsverteilung und der Störungskinematik im Zusammenhang mit der Hebung der Riftschultern des Rwenzori Gebirges.rnDas Rwenzori Gebirge befindet sich im NNE-SSWbis N-S verlaufenden Albertine Rift, des nördlichsten Segments des westlichen Armes des Ostafrikanischen Grabensystems. Das Albertine Rift besteht aus Becken unterschiedlicher Höhe, die den Lake Albert, Lake Edward, Lake George und Lake Kivu enthalten. Der Rwenzori horst trennt die Becken des Lake Albert und des Lake Edward. Es erstreckt sich 120km in N-S Richtung, sowie 40-50km in E-W Richtung, der h¨ochste Punkt befindet sich 5111 ü. NN. Diese Studie untersucht einen Abschnitt des Rifts zwischen etwa 1°N und 0°30'S Breite sowie 29°30' und 30°30' östlicher Länge ersteckt. Auch die Feldarbeit konzentrierte sich auf dieses Gebiet.rnrnHauptzweck dieser Studie bestand darin, die folgende These auf ihre Richtigkeit zu überprüfen: ’Wenn es im Verlauf der Zeit tatsächlich zu wesentlichen Änderungen in der Störungskinematik kam, dann ist die starke Hebung der Riftflanken im Bereich der Rwenzoris nicht einfach durch Bewegung entlang der Graben-Hauptst¨orungen zu erklären. Vielmehr ist sie ein Resultat des Zusammenspiels mehrerer tektonische Prozesse, die das Spannungsfeld beeinflussen und dadurch Änderungen in der Kinematik hervorrufen.’ Dadurch konzentrierte sich die Studie in erster Linie auf die Störungsanalyse.rnrnDie Kenntnis regionaler Änderungen der Extensionsrichtung ist entscheidend für das Verständnis komplexer Riftsysteme wie dem Ostafrikanischen Graben. Daher bestand der Kern der Untersuchung in der Kartierung von Störungen und der Untersuchung der Störungskinematik. Die Aufnahme strukturgeologischer Daten konzentrierte sich auf die Ugandische Seite des Rifts, und Pal¨aospannungen wurden mit Hilfe von St¨orungsdaten durch Spannungsinversion rekonstruiert.rnDie unterschiedliche Orientierung spr¨oder Strukturen im Gelände, die geometrische Analyse der geologischen Strukturen sowie die Ergebnisse von Mikrostrukturen im Dünnschliff (Kapitel 4) weisen auf verschiedene Spannungsfelder hin, die auf mögliche Änderungen der Extensionsrichtung hinweisen. Die Resultate der Spannungsinversion sprechen für Ab-, Über- und Blattverschiebungen sowie für Schrägüberschiebungen (Kapitel 5). Aus der Orientierung der Abschiebungen gehen zwei verschiedene Extensionsrichtungen hervor: im Wesentlichen NW-SE Extension in fast allen Gebieten, sowie NNE-SSW Extension im östlichen Zentralbereich.rnAus der Analyse von Blattverschiebungen ergaben sich drei unterschiedliche Spannungszustände. Zum Einen NNW-SSE bis N-S Kompression in Verbindung mit ENE-WSW bzw E-W Extension wurde für die nördlichen und die zentralen Ruwenzoris ausgemacht. Ein zweiter Spannungszustand mit WNW-ESE Kompression/NNE-SSW Extension betraf die Zentralen Rwenzoris. Ein dritter Spannungszustand mit NNW-SSE Extension betraf den östlichen Zentralteil der Rwenzoris. Schrägüberschiebungen sind durch dazu schräge Achsen charakterisiert, die für N-S bis NNW-SSE Kompression sprechen und ausschließlich im östlichen Zentralabschnitt auftreten. Überschiebungen, die hauptsächlich in den zentralen und den östlichen Rwenzoris auftreten, sprechen für NE-SW orientierten σ2-Achsen und NW-SE Extension.rnrnEs konnten drei unterschiedliche Spannungseinflüsse identifiziert werden: auf die kollisionsbedingte Bildung eines Überschiebungssystem folgte intra-kratonische Kompression und schließlich extensionskontrollierte Riftbildung. Der Übergang zwischen den beiden letztgenannten Spannungszuständen erfolgte Schrittweise und erzeugte vermutlich lokal begrenzte Transpression und Transtension. Gegenw¨artig wird die Störungskinematik der Region durch ein tensiles Spannungsregime in NW-SE bis N-S Richtung bestimmt.rnrnLokale Spannungsvariationen werden dabei hauptsächlich durch die Interferenzrndes regionalen Spannungsfeldes mit lokalen Hauptst¨orungen verursacht. Weitere Faktoren die zu lokalen Veränderungen des Spannungsfeldes führen können sind unterschiedliche Hebungsgeschwindigkeiten, Blockrotation oder die Interaktion von Riftsegmenten. Um den Einfluß präexistenter Strukturen und anderer Bedingungen auf die Hebung der Rwenzoris zu ermitteln, wurde der Riftprozeß mit Hilfe eines analogen ’Sandbox’-Modells rekonstruiert (Kapitel 6). Da sich die Moho-Diskontinuität im Bereich des Arbeitsgebietes in einer Tiefe von 25 km befindet, aktive Störungen aber nur bis zu einer Tiefe von etwa 20 km beobachtet werden können (Koehn et al. 2008), wurden nur die oberen 25 km im Modell nachbebildet. Untersucht und mit Geländebeobachtungen verglichen wurden sowohl die Reihenfolge, in der Riftsegmente entstehen, als auch die Muster, die sich im Verlauf der Nukleierung und des Wachstums dieser Riftsegmente ausbilden. Das Hauptaugenmerk wurde auf die Entwicklung der beiden Subsegmente gelegt auf denen sich der Lake Albert bzw. der Lake Edward und der Lake George befinden, sowie auf das dazwischenliegende Rwenzori Gebirge. Das Ziel der Untersuchung bestand darin herauszufinden, in welcher Weise das südwärts propagierende Lake Albert-Subsegment mit dem sinistral versetzten nordwärts propagierenden Lake Edward/Lake George-Subsegment interagiert.rnrnVon besonderem Interesse war es, in welcherWeise die Strukturen innerhalb und außerhalb der Rwenzoris durch die Interaktion dieser Riftsegmente beeinflußt wurden. rnrnDrei verschiedene Versuchsreihen mit unterschiedlichen Randbedingungen wurden miteinander verglichen. Abhängig vom vorherrschenden Deformationstyp der Transferzone wurden die Reihen als ’Scherungs-dominiert’, ’Extensions-dominiert’ und als ’Rotations-dominiert’ charakterisiert. Die Beobachtung der 3-dimensionalen strukturellen Entwicklung der Riftsegmente wurde durch die Kombination von Modell-Aufsichten mit Profilschnitten ermöglicht. Von den drei genannten Versuchsreihen entwickelte die ’Rotationsdominierten’ Reihe einen rautenförmiger Block im Tranferbereich der beiden Riftsegmente, der sich um 5−20° im Uhrzeigersinn drehte. DieserWinkel liegt im Bereich des vermuteten Rotationswinkel des Rwenzori-Blocks (5°). Zusammengefasst untersuchen die Sandbox-Versuche den Einfluss präexistenter Strukturen und der Überlappung bzw. Überschneidung zweier interagierender Riftsegmente auf die Entwicklung des Riftsystems. Sie befassen sich darüber hinaus mit der Frage, welchen Einfluss Blockbildung und -rotation auf das lokale Stressfeld haben.

The Effects of Interstate Speed Limit Increases: Fatality Rates and Traffic Diversion Versus Speed Spillover

This thesis examines two panel data sets of 48 states from 1981 to 2009 and utilizes ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects models to explore the relationship between rural Interstate speed limits and fatality rates and whether rural Interstate speed limits affect non-Interstate safety. Models provide evidence that rural Interstate speed limits higher than 55 MPH lead to higher fatality rates on rural Interstates though this effect is somewhat tempered by reductions in fatality rates for roads other than rural Interstates. These results provide some but not unanimous support for the traffic diversion hypothesis that rural Interstate speed limit increases lead to decreases in fatality rates of other roads. To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first econometric study to differentiate between the effects of 70 MPH speed limits and speed limits above 70 MPH on fatality rates using a multi-state data set. Considering both rural Interstates and other roads, rural Interstate speed limit increases above 55 MPH are responsible for 39,700 net fatalities, 4.1 percent of total fatalities from 1987, the year limits were first raised, to 2009.

PENALIZED FUNCTIONAL REGRESSION

We develop fast fitting methods for generalized functional linear models. An undersmooth of the functional predictor is obtained by projecting on a large number of smooth eigenvectors and the coefficient function is estimated using penalized spline regression. Our method can be applied to many functional data designs including functions measured with and without error, sparsely or densely sampled. The methods also extend to the case of multiple functional predictors or functional predictors with a natural multilevel structure. Our approach can be implemented using standard mixed effects software and is computationally fast. Our methodology is motivated by a diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) study. The aim of this study is to analyze differences between various cerebral white matter tract property measurements of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and controls. While the statistical developments proposed here were motivated by the DTI study, the methodology is designed and presented in generality and is applicable to many other areas of scientific research. An online appendix provides R implementations of all simulations.

Information Integration Theory and the Construction of Individually Perceived Group Efficacy

According to Bandura (1997) efficacy beliefs are a primary determinant of motivation. Still, very little is known about the processes through which people integrate situational factors to form efficacy beliefs (Myers & Feltz, 2007). The aim of this study was to gain insight into the cognitive construction of subjective group-efficacy beliefs. Only with a sound understanding of those processes is there a sufficient base to derive psychological interventions aimed at group-efficacy beliefs. According to cognitive theories (e.g., Miller, Galanter, & Pribram, 1973) individual group-efficacy beliefs can be seen as the result of a comparison between the demands of a group task and the resources of the performing group. At the center of this comparison are internally represented structures of the group task and plans to perform it. The empirical plausibility of this notion was tested using functional measurement theory (Anderson, 1981). Twenty-three students (M = 23.30 years; SD = 3.39; 35 % females) of the University of Bern repeatedly judged the efficacy of groups in different group tasks. The groups consisted of the subjects and another one to two fictive group members. The latter were manipulated by their value (low, medium, high) in task-relevant abilities. Data obtained from multiple full factorial designs were structured with individuals as second level units and analyzed using mixed linear models. The task-relevant abilities of group members, specified as fixed factors, all had highly significant effects on subjects’ group-efficacy judgments. The effect sizes of the ability factors showed to be dependent on the respective abilities’ importance in a given task. In additive tasks (Steiner, 1972) group resources were integrated in a linear fashion whereas significant interaction between factors was obtained in interdependent tasks. The results also showed that people take into account other group members’ efficacy beliefs when forming their own group-efficacy beliefs. The results support the notion that personal group-efficacy beliefs are obtained by comparing the demands of a task with the performing groups’ resources. Psychological factors such as other team members’ efficacy beliefs are thereby being considered task relevant resources and affect subjective group-efficacy beliefs. This latter finding underlines the adequacy of multidimensional measures. While the validity of collective efficacy measures is usually estimated by how well they predict performances, the results of this study allow for a somewhat internal validity criterion. It is concluded that Information Integration Theory holds potential to further help understand people’s cognitive functioning in sport relevant situations.

Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

Effect of nonnormal random components on level and power in group-randomized trials

The use of group-randomized trials is particularly widespread in the evaluation of health care, educational, and screening strategies. Group-randomized trials represent a subset of a larger class of designs often labeled nested, hierarchical, or multilevel and are characterized by the randomization of intact social units or groups, rather than individuals. The application of random effects models to group-randomized trials requires the specification of fixed and random components of the model. The underlying assumption is usually that these random components are normally distributed. This research is intended to determine if the Type I error rate and power are affected when the assumption of normality for the random component representing the group effect is violated. ^ In this study, simulated data are used to examine the Type I error rate, power, bias and mean squared error of the estimates of the fixed effect and the observed intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) when the random component representing the group effect possess distributions with non-normal characteristics, such as heavy tails or severe skewness. The simulated data are generated with various characteristics (e.g. number of schools per condition, number of students per school, and several within school ICCs) observed in most small, school-based, group-randomized trials. The analysis is carried out using SAS PROC MIXED, Version 6.12, with random effects specified in a random statement and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation specified. The results from the non-normally distributed data are compared to the results obtained from the analysis of data with similar design characteristics but normally distributed random effects. ^ The results suggest that the violation of the normality assumption for the group component by a skewed or heavy-tailed distribution does not appear to influence the estimation of the fixed effect, Type I error, and power. Negative biases were detected when estimating the sample ICC and dramatically increased in magnitude as the true ICC increased. These biases were not as pronounced when the true ICC was within the range observed in most group-randomized trials (i.e. 0.00 to 0.05). The normally distributed group effect also resulted in bias ICC estimates when the true ICC was greater than 0.05. However, this may be a result of higher correlation within the data. ^

Group abilities, individual group-efficacy beliefs and performance motivation: A mediation analysis

Introduction Research has shown that individuals infer their group-efficacy beliefs from the groups’ abilities to perform in specific tasks. Group abilities also seem to affect team members’ performance motivation adding a psychological advantage to teams already high on task relevant abilities. In a recent study we found the effect of group abilities on individual performance motivation to be partially mediated by the team members’ individual group-efficacy beliefs which is an example of how attributes on a group-level can be affecting individual-level parameters. Objectives The study aimed at testing the possibility to reduce the direct and mediated effects of low group abilities on performance motivation by augmenting the visibility of individual contributions to group performances via the inclusion of a separate ranking on individual performances. Method Forty-seven students (M=22.83 years, SD=2.83, 34% women) of the University of Bern participated in the study. At three collection points (t1-3) subjects were provided information about fictive team members with whom they had to imagine performing a group triathlon. Three values (low, medium, high) of the other team members’ abilities to perform in their parts of the triathlon (swimming and biking) were combined in a 3x3 full factorial design yielding nine groups with different ability profiles. At t1 subjects were asked to rate their confidence that the teams would perform well in the triathlon task, at t2 and t3 subjects were asked how motivated they were to perform at their best in the respective groups. At t3 the presence of an individual performance ranking was mentioned in the cover story. Mixed linear models (SPSS) and structural equation models for complex survey data (Mplus) were specified to estimate the effects of the individual performance rankings on the relationship between group-efficacy beliefs and performance motivation. Results A significant interaction effect for individual group-efficacy beliefs and the triathlon condition on performance motivation was found; the effect of group-efficacy beliefs on performance motivation being smaller with individual performance rankings available. The partial mediation of group attributes on performance motivation by group-efficacy beliefs disappeared with the announcement of individual performance rankings. Conclusion In teams low in task relevant abilities the disadvantageous effect of group-efficacy beliefs on performance motivation might be reduced by providing means of evaluating individual performances apart from a group’s overall performance. While it is believed that a common group goal is a core criterion for a well performing sport group future studies should also aim at the possible benefit of individualized goal setting in groups.

Group abilities, individual group-efficacy beliefs and performance motivation: A mediation analysis

Introduction Research has shown that individuals infer their group-efficacy beliefs from the groups’ abilities to perform in specific tasks. Group abilities also seem to affect team members’ performance motivation adding a psychological advantage to teams already high on task relevant abilities. In a recent study we found the effect of group abilities on individual performance motivation to be partially mediated by the team members’ individual group-efficacy beliefs which is an example of how attributes on a group-level can be affecting individual-level parameters. Objectives The study aimed at testing the possibility to reduce the direct and mediated effects of low group abilities on performance motivation by augmenting the visibility of individual contributions to group performances via the inclusion of a separate ranking on individual performances. Method Forty-seven students (M=22.83 years, SD=2.83, 34% women) of the University of Bern participated in the study. At three collection points (t1-3) subjects were provided information about fictive team members with whom they had to imagine performing a group triathlon. Three values (low, medium, high) of the other team members’ abilities to perform in their parts of the triathlon (swimming and biking) were combined in a 3x3 full factorial design yielding nine groups with different ability profiles. At t1 subjects were asked to rate their confidence that the teams would perform well in the triathlon task, at t2 and t3 subjects were asked how motivated they were to perform at their best in the respective groups. At t3 the presence of an individual performance ranking was mentioned in the cover story. Mixed linear models (SPSS) and structural equation models for complex survey data (Mplus) were specified to estimate the effects of the individual performance rankings on the relationship between group-efficacy beliefs and performance motivation. Results A significant interaction effect for individual group-efficacy beliefs and the triathlon condition on performance motivation was found; the effect of group-efficacy beliefs on performance motivation being smaller with individual performance rankings available. The partial mediation of group attributes on performance motivation by group-efficacy beliefs disappeared with the announcement of individual performance rankings. Conclusion In teams low in task relevant abilities the disadvantageous effect of group-efficacy beliefs on performance motivation might be reduced by providing means of evaluating individual performances apart from a group’s overall performance. While it is believed that a common group goal is a core criterion for a well performing sport group future studies should also aim at the possible benefit of individualized goal setting in groups.

Effectiveness of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the treatment of pain in knee and hip osteoarthritis: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are the backbone of osteoarthritis pain management. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of different preparations and doses of NSAIDs on osteoarthritis pain in a network meta-analysis. METHODS For this network meta-analysis, we considered randomised trials comparing any of the following interventions: NSAIDs, paracetamol, or placebo, for the treatment of osteoarthritis pain. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the reference lists of relevant articles for trials published between Jan 1, 1980, and Feb 24, 2015, with at least 100 patients per group. The prespecified primary and secondary outcomes were pain and physical function, and were extracted in duplicate for up to seven timepoints after the start of treatment. We used an extension of multivariable Bayesian random effects models for mixed multiple treatment comparisons with a random effect at the level of trials. For the primary analysis, a random walk of first order was used to account for multiple follow-up outcome data within a trial. Preparations that used different total daily dose were considered separately in the analysis. To assess a potential dose-response relation, we used preparation-specific covariates assuming linearity on log relative dose. FINDINGS We identified 8973 manuscripts from our search, of which 74 randomised trials with a total of 58 556 patients were included in this analysis. 23 nodes concerning seven different NSAIDs or paracetamol with specific daily dose of administration or placebo were considered. All preparations, irrespective of dose, improved point estimates of pain symptoms when compared with placebo. For six interventions (diclofenac 150 mg/day, etoricoxib 30 mg/day, 60 mg/day, and 90 mg/day, and rofecoxib 25 mg/day and 50 mg/day), the probability that the difference to placebo is at or below a prespecified minimum clinically important effect for pain reduction (effect size [ES] -0·37) was at least 95%. Among maximally approved daily doses, diclofenac 150 mg/day (ES -0·57, 95% credibility interval [CrI] -0·69 to -0·46) and etoricoxib 60 mg/day (ES -0·58, -0·73 to -0·43) had the highest probability to be the best intervention, both with 100% probability to reach the minimum clinically important difference. Treatment effects increased as drug dose increased, but corresponding tests for a linear dose effect were significant only for celecoxib (p=0·030), diclofenac (p=0·031), and naproxen (p=0·026). We found no evidence that treatment effects varied over the duration of treatment. Model fit was good, and between-trial heterogeneity and inconsistency were low in all analyses. All trials were deemed to have a low risk of bias for blinding of patients. Effect estimates did not change in sensitivity analyses with two additional statistical models and accounting for methodological quality criteria in meta-regression analysis. INTERPRETATION On the basis of the available data, we see no role for single-agent paracetamol for the treatment of patients with osteoarthritis irrespective of dose. We provide sound evidence that diclofenac 150 mg/day is the most effective NSAID available at present, in terms of improving both pain and function. Nevertheless, in view of the safety profile of these drugs, physicians need to consider our results together with all known safety information when selecting the preparation and dose for individual patients. FUNDING Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 405340-104762) and Arco Foundation, Switzerland.