Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in São Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Serum levels of brain-derived neurotrophicfactor correlate with the number of T2 MRI lesions in multiple sclerosis

The objective of the present study was to determine if there is a relationship between serum levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and the number of T2/fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (T2/FLAIR) lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS). The use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has revolutionized the study of MS. However, MRI has limitations and the use of other biomarkers such as BDNF may be useful for the clinical assessment and the study of the disease. Serum was obtained from 28 MS patients, 18-50 years old (median 38), 21 women, 0.5-10 years (median 5) of disease duration, EDSS 1-4 (median 1.5) and 28 healthy controls, 19-49 years old (median 33), 19 women. BDNF levels were measured by ELISA. T1, T2/FLAIR and gadolinium-enhanced lesions were measured by a trained radiologist. BDNF was reduced in MS patients (median [range] pg/mL; 1160 [352.6-2640]) compared to healthy controls (1640 [632.4-4268]; P = 0.03, Mann-Whitney test) and was negatively correlated (Spearman correlation test, r = -0.41; P = 0.02) with T2/FLAIR (11-81 lesions, median 42). We found that serum BDNF levels were inversely correlated with the number of T2/FLAIR lesions in patients with MS. BDNF may be a promising biomarker of MS.

Women's subjective and objective health over time : the role of psychosocial conditions and physiological stress responses

Today, health problems are likely to have a complex and multifactorial etiology, whereby psychosocial factors interact with behaviour and bodily responses. Women generally report more health problems than men. The present thesis concerns the development of women’s health from a subjective and objective perspective, as related to psychosocial living conditions and physiological stress responses. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies were carried out on a representative sample of women. Data analysis was based on a holistic person-oriented approach as well as a variable approach. In Study I, the women’s self-reported symptoms and diseases as well as self-rated general health status were compared to physician-rated health problems and ratings of the general health of the women, based on medical examinations. The findings showed that physicians rated twice as many women as having poor health compared to the ratings of the women themselves. Moreover, the symptom ”a sense of powerlessness” had the highest predictive power for self-rated general health. Study II investigated individual and structural stability in symptom profiles between adolescence and middle-age as related to pubertal timing. There was individual stability in symptom reporting for nearly thirty years, although the effect of pubertal timing on symptom reporting did not extend into middle-age. Study III explored the longitudinal and current influence of socioeconomic and psychosocial factors on women’s self-reported health. Contemporary factors such as job strain, low income, financial worries, and double exposure in terms of high job strain and heavy domestic responsibilities increased the risk for poor self-reported health in middle-aged women. In Study IV, the association between self-reported symptoms and physiological stress responses was investigated. Results revealed that higher levels of medically unexplained symptoms were related to higher levels of cortisol, cholesterol, and heart rate. The empirical findings are discussed in relation to existing models of stress and health, such as the demand-control model, the allostatic load model, the biopsychosocial model, and the multiple role hypothesis. It was concluded that women’s health problems could be reduced if their overall life circumstances were improved. The practical implications of this might include a redesign of the labour market giving women more influence and control over their lives, both at and away from work.

Gestión de vídeo distribuido

[ES] El principal objetivo de este Trabajo Final de Grado (TFG) fue la creación de un sistema de gestión de vídeo distribuido utilizando cámaras de videovigilancia IP. Esta propuesta surgió a partir de la idea de ofrecer un acceso simultáneo, tanto online como offline, a las secuencias de vídeo generadas por una red de cámaras IP en un entorno dado. El resultado obtenido fue una infraestructura software ampliable  que ofrece al usuario una serie de funcionalidades con cámaras de red, abstrayéndolo de detalles internos. El trabajo está compuesto por tres elementos claramente diferenciados: integración de cámaras IP, almacenamiento en vídeo y creación del sistema de vídeo distribuido. La integración de cámaras IP tiene como objetivo comunicar al equipo con la cámara de red para la obtención del flujo de imágenes que transmite. Dicha comunicación se establece vía HTTP (Hypertext Transfer Protocol) gracias a la interfaz de programación (API) de la que disponen estos dispositivos. El segundo elemento, el almacenamiento en vídeo, tiene como función guardar las imágenes de la cámara IP en archivos de vídeo. De esta manera se ofrece su posterior visualización en diferido. Finalmente, el sistema de vídeo distribuido permite la reproducción simultánea de múltiples vídeos grabados por la red de cámaras IP. Adicionalmente, vídeos grabados por otros dispositivos también son admitidos. El material desarrollado dispone del potencial necesario para convertirse en una herramienta libre de amplio uso en sistemas UNIX para cámaras IP, así como suponer la base de futuros proyectos relacionados con estos dispositivos.

Enhanced Mixed Integer Programming Techniques and Routing Problems

Mixed integer programming is up today one of the most widely used techniques for dealing with hard optimization problems. On the one side, many practical optimization problems arising from real-world applications (such as, e.g., scheduling, project planning, transportation, telecommunications, economics and finance, timetabling, etc) can be easily and effectively formulated as Mixed Integer linear Programs (MIPs). On the other hand, 50 and more years of intensive research has dramatically improved on the capability of the current generation of MIP solvers to tackle hard problems in practice. However, many questions are still open and not fully understood, and the mixed integer programming community is still more than active in trying to answer some of these questions. As a consequence, a huge number of papers are continuously developed and new intriguing questions arise every year. When dealing with MIPs, we have to distinguish between two different scenarios. The first one happens when we are asked to handle a general MIP and we cannot assume any special structure for the given problem. In this case, a Linear Programming (LP) relaxation and some integrality requirements are all we have for tackling the problem, and we are ``forced" to use some general purpose techniques. The second one happens when mixed integer programming is used to address a somehow structured problem. In this context, polyhedral analysis and other theoretical and practical considerations are typically exploited to devise some special purpose techniques. This thesis tries to give some insights in both the above mentioned situations. The first part of the work is focused on general purpose cutting planes, which are probably the key ingredient behind the success of the current generation of MIP solvers. Chapter 1 presents a quick overview of the main ingredients of a branch-and-cut algorithm, while Chapter 2 recalls some results from the literature in the context of disjunctive cuts and their connections with Gomory mixed integer cuts. Chapter 3 presents a theoretical and computational investigation of disjunctive cuts. In particular, we analyze the connections between different normalization conditions (i.e., conditions to truncate the cone associated with disjunctive cutting planes) and other crucial aspects as cut rank, cut density and cut strength. We give a theoretical characterization of weak rays of the disjunctive cone that lead to dominated cuts, and propose a practical method to possibly strengthen those cuts arising from such weak extremal solution. Further, we point out how redundant constraints can affect the quality of the generated disjunctive cuts, and discuss possible ways to cope with them. Finally, Chapter 4 presents some preliminary ideas in the context of multiple-row cuts. Very recently, a series of papers have brought the attention to the possibility of generating cuts using more than one row of the simplex tableau at a time. Several interesting theoretical results have been presented in this direction, often revisiting and recalling other important results discovered more than 40 years ago. However, is not clear at all how these results can be exploited in practice. As stated, the chapter is a still work-in-progress and simply presents a possible way for generating two-row cuts from the simplex tableau arising from lattice-free triangles and some preliminary computational results. The second part of the thesis is instead focused on the heuristic and exact exploitation of integer programming techniques for hard combinatorial optimization problems in the context of routing applications. Chapters 5 and 6 present an integer linear programming local search algorithm for Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs). The overall procedure follows a general destroy-and-repair paradigm (i.e., the current solution is first randomly destroyed and then repaired in the attempt of finding a new improved solution) where a class of exponential neighborhoods are iteratively explored by heuristically solving an integer programming formulation through a general purpose MIP solver. Chapters 7 and 8 deal with exact branch-and-cut methods. Chapter 7 presents an extended formulation for the Traveling Salesman Problem with Time Windows (TSPTW), a generalization of the well known TSP where each node must be visited within a given time window. The polyhedral approaches proposed for this problem in the literature typically follow the one which has been proven to be extremely effective in the classical TSP context. Here we present an overall (quite) general idea which is based on a relaxed discretization of time windows. Such an idea leads to a stronger formulation and to stronger valid inequalities which are then separated within the classical branch-and-cut framework. Finally, Chapter 8 addresses the branch-and-cut in the context of Generalized Minimum Spanning Tree Problems (GMSTPs) (i.e., a class of NP-hard generalizations of the classical minimum spanning tree problem). In this chapter, we show how some basic ideas (and, in particular, the usage of general purpose cutting planes) can be useful to improve on branch-and-cut methods proposed in the literature.

Climate change and the tourism sector: the clean development mechanism, a market instrument under the Kyoto Protocol to achieve multiple objectives

The main objective of this research is to demonstrate that the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an instrument created under a global international treaty, can achieve multiple objectives beyond those for which it has been established. As such, while being already a powerful tool to contribute to the global fight against climate change, the CDM can also be successful if applied to different sectors not contemplated before. In particular, this research aimed at demonstrating that a wider utilization of the CDM in the tourism sector can represent an innovative way to foster sustainable tourism and generate additional benefits. The CDM was created by Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and represents an innovative tool to reduce greenhouse gases emissions through the implementation of mitigation activities in developing countries which generate certified emission reductions (CERs), each of them equivalent to one ton of CO2 not emitted in the atmosphere. These credits can be used for compliance reasons by industrialized countries in achieving their reduction targets. The logic path of this research begins with an analysis of the scientific evidences of climate change and its impacts on different economic sectors including tourism and it continues with a focus on the linkages between climate and the tourism sector. Then, it analyses the international responses to the issue of climate change and the peculiar activities in the international arena addressing climate change and the tourism sector. The concluding part of the work presents the objectives and achievements of the CDM and its links to the tourism sector by considering case studies of existing projects which demonstrate that the underlying question can be positively answered. New opportunities for the tourism sector are available.

Theoretical and implementation aspects in the mechanization of the metatheory of programming languages

Interactive theorem provers are tools designed for the certification of formal proofs developed by means of man-machine collaboration. Formal proofs obtained in this way cover a large variety of logical theories, ranging from the branches of mainstream mathematics, to the field of software verification. The border between these two worlds is marked by results in theoretical computer science and proofs related to the metatheory of programming languages. This last field, which is an obvious application of interactive theorem proving, poses nonetheless a serious challenge to the users of such tools, due both to the particularly structured way in which these proofs are constructed, and to difficulties related to the management of notions typical of programming languages like variable binding. This thesis is composed of two parts, discussing our experience in the development of the Matita interactive theorem prover and its use in the mechanization of the metatheory of programming languages. More specifically, part I covers: - the results of our effort in providing a better framework for the development of tactics for Matita, in order to make their implementation and debugging easier, also resulting in a much clearer code; - a discussion of the implementation of two tactics, providing infrastructure for the unification of constructor forms and the inversion of inductive predicates; we point out interactions between induction and inversion and provide an advancement over the state of the art. In the second part of the thesis, we focus on aspects related to the formalization of programming languages. We describe two works of ours: - a discussion of basic issues we encountered in our formalizations of part 1A of the Poplmark challenge, where we apply the extended inversion principles we implemented for Matita; - a formalization of an algebraic logical framework, posing more complex challenges, including multiple binding and a form of hereditary substitution; this work adopts, for the encoding of binding, an extension of Masahiko Sato's canonical locally named representation we designed during our visit to the Laboratory for Foundations of Computer Science at the University of Edinburgh, under the supervision of Randy Pollack.

Ownership, Multiple Blockholders and Performance: A study of the Indonesian Banking Industry

The objective of this study is to provide empirical evidence on how ownership structure and owner’s identity affect performance, in the banking industry by using a panel of Indonesia banks over the period 2000–2009. Firstly, we analysed the impact of the presence of multiple blockholders on bank ownership structure and performance. Building on multiple agency and principal-principal theories, we investigated whether the presence and shares dispersion across blockholders with different identities (i.e. central and regional government; families; foreign banks and financial institutions) affected bank performance, in terms of profitability and efficiency. We found that the number of blockholders has a negative effect on banks’ performance, while blockholders’ concentration has a positive effect. Moreover, we observed that the dispersion of ownership across different types of blockholders has a negative effect on banks’ performance. We interpret such results as evidence that, when heterogeneous blockholders are present, the disadvantage from conflicts of interests between blockholders seems to outweigh the advantage of the increase in additional monitoring by additional blockholder. Secondly, we conducted a joint analysis of the static, selection, and dynamic effects of different types of ownership on banks’ performance. We found that regional banks and foreign banks have a higher profitability and efficiency as compared to domestic private banks. In the short-run, foreign acquisitions and domestic M&As reduce the level of overhead costs, while in the long-run they increase the Net Interest Margin (NIM). Further, we analysed NIM determinants, to asses the impact of ownership on bank business orientation. Our findings lend support to our prediction that the NIM determinants differs accordingly to the type of bank ownership. We also observed that banks that experienced changes in ownership, such as foreign-acquired banks, manifest different interest margin determinants with respect to domestic or foreign banks that did not experience ownership rearrangements.

The impact of polymorphisms in P-gp, DNA repair and folic acid metabolism genes in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients treated with thalidomide plus dexamethasone, with or without bortezomib

The principle aim of this study was to investigate biological predictors of response and resistance to multiple myeloma treatment. Two hypothesis had been proposed as responsible of responsiveness: SNPs in DNA repair and Folate pathway, and P-gp dependent efflux. As a first objective, panel of SNPs in DNA repair and Folate pathway genes, were analyzed. It was a retrospective study in a group of 454, previously untreated, MM patients enrolled in a randomized phase III open-label study. Results show that some SNPs in Folate pathway are correlated with response to MM treatment. MTR genotype was associated with favorable response in the overall population of MM patients. However, this relation, disappear after adjustment for treatment response. When poor responder includes very good partial response, partial response and stable/progressive disease MTFHR rs1801131 genotype was associated with poor response to therapy. This relation - unlike in MTR – was still significant after adjustment for treatment response. Identification of this genetic variant in MM patients could be used as an independent prognostic factor for therapeutic outcome in the clinical practice. In the second objective, basic disposition characteristics of bortezomib was investigated. We demonstrated that bortezomib is a P-gp substrate in a bi-directional transport study. We obtain apparent permeability rate values that together with solubility values can have a crucial implication in better understanding of bortezomib pharmacokinetics with respect to the importance of membrane transporters. Subsequently, in view of the importance of P-gp for bortezomib responsiveness a panel of SNPs in ABCB1 gene - coding for P-gp - were analyzed. In particular we analyzed five SNPs, none of them however correlated with treatment responsiveness. However, we found a significant association between ABCB1 variants and cytogenetic abnormalities. In particular, deletion of chromosome 17 and t(4;14) translocation were present in patients harboring rs60023214 and rs2038502 variants respectively.

Engineering Agent-Oriented Technologies and Programming Languages for Computer Programming and Software Development

Mainstream hardware is becoming parallel, heterogeneous, and distributed on every desk, every home and in every pocket. As a consequence, in the last years software is having an epochal turn toward concurrency, distribution, interaction which is pushed by the evolution of hardware architectures and the growing of network availability. This calls for introducing further abstraction layers on top of those provided by classical mainstream programming paradigms, to tackle more effectively the new complexities that developers have to face in everyday programming. A convergence it is recognizable in the mainstream toward the adoption of the actor paradigm as a mean to unite object-oriented programming and concurrency. Nevertheless, we argue that the actor paradigm can only be considered a good starting point to provide a more comprehensive response to such a fundamental and radical change in software development. Accordingly, the main objective of this thesis is to propose Agent-Oriented Programming (AOP) as a high-level general purpose programming paradigm, natural evolution of actors and objects, introducing a further level of human-inspired concepts for programming software systems, meant to simplify the design and programming of concurrent, distributed, reactive/interactive programs. To this end, in the dissertation first we construct the required background by studying the state-of-the-art of both actor-oriented and agent-oriented programming, and then we focus on the engineering of integrated programming technologies for developing agent-based systems in their classical application domains: artificial intelligence and distributed artificial intelligence. Then, we shift the perspective moving from the development of intelligent software systems, toward general purpose software development. Using the expertise maturated during the phase of background construction, we introduce a general-purpose programming language named simpAL, which founds its roots on general principles and practices of software development, and at the same time provides an agent-oriented level of abstraction for the engineering of general purpose software systems.

Efficient certification of feasibility and objective value of linear programs and its applications

The use of linear programming in various areas has increased with the significant improvement of specialized solvers. Linear programs are used as such to model practical problems, or as subroutines in algorithms such as formal proofs or branch-and-cut frameworks. In many situations a certified answer is needed, for example the guarantee that the linear program is feasible or infeasible, or a provably safe bound on its objective value. Most of the available solvers work with floating-point arithmetic and are thus subject to its shortcomings such as rounding errors or underflow, therefore they can deliver incorrect answers. While adequate for some applications, this is unacceptable for critical applications like flight controlling or nuclear plant management due to the potential catastrophic consequences. We propose a method that gives a certified answer whether a linear program is feasible or infeasible, or returns unknown'. The advantage of our method is that it is reasonably fast and rarely answers unknown'. It works by computing a safe solution that is in some way the best possible in the relative interior of the feasible set. To certify the relative interior, we employ exact arithmetic, whose use is nevertheless limited in general to critical places, allowing us to rnremain computationally efficient. Moreover, when certain conditions are fulfilled, our method is able to deliver a provable bound on the objective value of the linear program. We test our algorithm on typical benchmark sets and obtain higher rates of success compared to previous approaches for this problem, while keeping the running times acceptably small. The computed objective value bounds are in most of the cases very close to the known exact objective values. We prove the usability of the method we developed by additionally employing a variant of it in a different scenario, namely to improve the results of a Satisfiability Modulo Theories solver. Our method is used as a black box in the nodes of a branch-and-bound tree to implement conflict learning based on the certificate of infeasibility for linear programs consisting of subsets of linear constraints. The generated conflict clauses are in general small and give good rnprospects for reducing the search space. Compared to other methods we obtain significant improvements in the running time, especially on the large instances.

Characterization of functioning in multiple sclerosis using the ICF

The objective of this study was to explore whether it is possible to describe based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) relevant aspects of functioning and disability affected in multiple sclerosis (MS) as well as environmental factors relevant to persons with MS. The specific aim was to identify most relevant 'Body functions', 'Body structures', 'Activities and participation', as well as 'Environmental factors' in patients with MS using the ICF. Additionally, different MS forms were compared with respect to the identified problems. A multi-centre study was conducted in an empirical cross-sectional design. Data from 205 individuals with MS were collected in rehabilitation centres: disease related data, socio-demographic data, single interviews based on the Extended ICF Checklist and a patient questionnaire including ratings on general health and functioning status, Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II) and Comorbidity Questionnaire (SCQ). The 129 ICF categories identified represent a comprehensive classification of functioning in MS from the clinical perspective. Differences between MS forms were observed for several ICF categories, EDSS, general health and functioning status, but not for BDI and SCQ. The study showed that it is possible to describe based on the ICF the spectrum in functioning and disability affected in MS as well as environmental factors relevant to persons with MS.

The latency distribution of motor evoked potentials in patients with multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVE: To compare the individual latency distributions of motor evoked potentials (MEP) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) to the previously reported results in healthy subjects (Firmin et al., 2011). METHODS: We applied the previously reported method to measure the distribution of MEP latencies to 16 patients with MS. The method is based on transcranial magnetic stimulation and consists of a combination of the triple stimulation technique with a method originally developed to measure conduction velocity distributions in peripheral nerves. RESULTS: MEP latency distributions in MS typically showed two peaks. The individual MEP latency distributions were significantly wider in patients with MS than in healthy subjects. The mean triple stimulation delay extension at the 75% quantile, a proxy for MEP latency distribution width, was 7.3ms in healthy subjects and 10.7ms in patients with MS. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with MS, slow portions of the central motor pathway contribute more to the MEP than in healthy subjects. The bimodal distribution found in healthy subjects is preserved in MS. SIGNIFICANCE: Our method to measure the distribution of MEP latencies is suitable to detect alterations in the relative contribution of corticospinal tract portions with long MEP latencies to motor conduction.

Quantification of central motor conduction deficits in multiple sclerosis patients before and after treatment of acute exacerbation by methylprednisolone

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP) in patients with relapsing-remitting (RR-MS), secondary progressive (SP-MS), and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PP-MS). METHODS: Clinical and neurophysiological follow up was undertaken in 24 RR-MS, eight SP-MS, and nine PP-MS patients receiving Solu-Medrol 500 mg/d over five days for exacerbations involving the motor system. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were used to measure central motor conduction time (CMCT) and the triple stimulation technique (TST) was applied to assess conduction deficits. The TST allows accurate quantification of the number of conducting central motor neurones, expressed by the TST amplitude ratio. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in TST amplitude ratio in RR-MS (p<0.001) and SP-MS patients (p<0.02) at day 5, paralleling an increase in muscle force. TST amplitude ratio and muscle force remained stable at two months. In PP-MS, TST amplitude ratio and muscle force did not change. CMCT did not change significantly in any of the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: In RR-MS and SP-MS, IVMP is followed by a prompt increase in conducting central motor neurones paralleled by improvement in muscle force, which most probably reflects partial resolution of central conduction block. The lack of similar clinical and neurophysiological changes in PP-MS corroborates previous clinical reports on limited IVMP efficacy in this patient group and points to pathophysiological differences underlying exacerbations in PP-MS.

Accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: systematic review

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging criteria for the early diagnosis of multiple sclerosis in patients with suspected disease. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: 12 electronic databases, citation searches, and reference lists of included studies. Review methods Studies on accuracy of diagnosis that compared magnetic resonance imaging, or diagnostic criteria incorporating such imaging, to a reference standard for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. RESULTS: 29 studies (18 cohort studies, 11 other designs) were included. On average, studies of other designs (mainly diagnostic case-control studies) produced higher estimated diagnostic odds ratios than did cohort studies. Among 15 studies of higher methodological quality (cohort design, clinical follow-up as reference standard), those with longer follow-up produced higher estimates of specificity and lower estimates of sensitivity. Only two such studies followed patients for more than 10 years. Even in the presence of many lesions (> 10 or > 8), magnetic resonance imaging could not accurately rule multiple sclerosis in (likelihood ratio of a positive test result 3.0 and 2.0, respectively). Similarly, the absence of lesions was of limited utility in ruling out a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (likelihood ratio of a negative test result 0.1 and 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Many evaluations of the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the early detection of multiple sclerosis have produced inflated estimates of test performance owing to methodological weaknesses. Use of magnetic resonance imaging to confirm multiple sclerosis on the basis of a single attack of neurological dysfunction may lead to over-diagnosis and over-treatment.