A spatiotemporal Data Envelopment Analysis (S-T DEA) approach:the need to assess evolving units

One of the major challenges in measuring efficiency in terms of resources and outcomes is the assessment of the evolution of units over time. Although Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been applied for time series datasets, DEA models, by construction, form the reference set for inefficient units (lambda values) based on their distance from the efficient frontier, that is, in a spatial manner. However, when dealing with temporal datasets, the proximity in time between units should also be taken into account, since it reflects the structural resemblance among time periods of a unit that evolves. In this paper, we propose a two-stage spatiotemporal DEA approach, which captures both the spatial and temporal dimension through a multi-objective programming model. In the first stage, DEA is solved iteratively extracting for each unit only previous DMUs as peers in its reference set. In the second stage, the lambda values derived from the first stage are fed to a Multiobjective Mixed Integer Linear Programming model, which filters peers in the reference set based on weights assigned to the spatial and temporal dimension. The approach is demonstrated on a real-world example drawn from software development.

3D TerraFly: Quality of service management for online interactive 3D geographic information system

3D geographic information system (GIS) is data and computation intensive in nature. Internet users are usually equipped with low-end personal computers and network connections of limited bandwidth. Data reduction and performance optimization techniques are of critical importance in quality of service (QoS) management for online 3D GIS. In this research, QoS management issues regarding distributed 3D GIS presentation were studied to develop 3D TerraFly, an interactive 3D GIS that supports high quality online terrain visualization and navigation. ^ To tackle the QoS management challenges, multi-resolution rendering model, adaptive level of detail (LOD) control and mesh simplification algorithms were proposed to effectively reduce the terrain model complexity. The rendering model is adaptively decomposed into sub-regions of up-to-three detail levels according to viewing distance and other dynamic quality measurements. The mesh simplification algorithm was designed as a hybrid algorithm that combines edge straightening and quad-tree compression to reduce the mesh complexity by removing geometrically redundant vertices. The main advantage of this mesh simplification algorithm is that grid mesh can be directly processed in parallel without triangulation overhead. Algorithms facilitating remote accessing and distributed processing of volumetric GIS data, such as data replication, directory service, request scheduling, predictive data retrieving and caching were also proposed. ^ A prototype of the proposed 3D TerraFly implemented in this research demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed QoS management framework in handling interactive online 3D GIS. The system implementation details and future directions of this research are also addressed in this thesis. ^

The issue of macroeconomic closure revisited and extended

Léon Walras (1874) already had realized that his neo-classical general equilibrium model could not accommodate autonomous investment. Sen analysed the same issue in a simple, one-sector macroeconomic model of a closed economy. He showed that fixing investment in the model, built strictly on neo-classical assumptions, would make the system overdetermined, thus, one should loosen some neo-classical condition of competitive equilibrium. He analysed three not neo-classical “closure options”, which could make the model well determined in the case of fixed investment. Others later extended his list and it showed that the closure dilemma arises in the more complex computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well, as does the choice of adjustment mechanism assumed to bring about equilibrium at the macro level. By means of numerical models, it was also illustrated that the adopted closure rule can significantly affect the results of policy simulations based on a CGE model. Despite these warnings, the issue of macro closure is often neglected in policy simulations. It is, therefore, worth revisiting the issue and demonstrating by further examples its importance, as well as pointing out that the closure problem in the CGE models extends well beyond the problem of how to incorporate autonomous investment into a CGE model. Several closure rules are discussed in this paper and their diverse outcomes are illustrated by numerical models calibrated on statistical data. First, the analyses is done in a one-sector model, similar to Sen’s, but extended into a model of an open economy. Next, the same analyses are repeated using a fully-fledged multisectoral CGE model, calibrated on the same statistical data. Comparing the results obtained by the two models it is shown that although, using the same closure option, they generate quite similar results in terms of the direction and – to a somewhat lesser extent – of the magnitude of change in the main macro variables, the predictions of the multi-sectoral CGE model are clearly more realistic and balanced.

Factors driving territory size and breeding success in a threatened migratory songbird, the Canada Warbler

Successful conservation of migratory birds demands we understand how habitat factors on the breeding grounds influences breeding success. Multiple factors are known to directly influence breeding success in territorial songbirds. For example, greater food availability and fewer predators can have direct effects on breeding success. However, many of these same habitat factors can also result in higher conspecific density that may ultimately reduce breeding success through density dependence. In this case, there is a negative indirect effect of habitat on breeding success through its effects on conspecific density and territory size. Therefore, a key uncertainty facing land managers is whether important habitat attributes directly influence breeding success or indirectly influence breeding success through territory size. We used radio-telemetry, point-counts, vegetation sampling, predator observations, and insect sampling over two years to provide data on habitat selection of a steeply declining songbird species, the Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis). These data were then applied in a hierarchical path modeling framework and an AIC model selection approach to determine the habitat attributes that best predict breeding success. Canada Warblers had smaller territories in areas with high shrub cover, in the presence of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), at shoreline sites relative to forest-interior sites and as conspecific density increased. Breeding success was lower for birds with smaller territories, which suggests competition for limited food resources, but there was no direct evidence that food availability influenced territory size or breeding success. The negative relationship between shrub cover and territory size in our study may arise because these specific habitat conditions are spatially heterogeneous, whereby individuals pack into patches of preferred breeding habitat scattered throughout the landscape, resulting in reduced territory size and an associated reduction in resource availability per territory. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering direct and indirect effects for Canada warblers; efforts to increase the amount of breeding habitat may ultimately result in lower breeding success if habitat availability is limited and negative density dependent effects occur.

Energy systems analysis of transboundary river basins in a nexus approach: the Sava river basin study case

Resource management policies are frequently designed and planned to target specific needs of particular sectors, without taking into account the interests of other sectors who share the same resources. In a climate of resource depletion, population growth, increase in energy demand and climate change awareness, it is of great importance to promote the assessment of intersectoral linkages and, by doing so, understand their effects and implications. This need is further augmented when common use of resources might not be solely relevant at national level, but also when the distribution of resources ranges over different nations. This dissertation focuses on the study of the energy systems of five south eastern European countries, which share the Sava River Basin, using a water-food(agriculture)-energy nexus approach. In the case of the electricity generation sector, the use of water is essential for the integrity of the energy systems, as the electricity production in the riparian countries relies on two major technologies dependent on water resources: hydro and thermal power plants. For example, in 2012, an average of 37% of the electricity production in the SRB countries was generated by hydropower and 61% in thermal power plants. Focusing on the SRB, in terms of existing installed capacities, the basin accommodates close to a tenth of all hydropower capacity while providing water for cooling to 42% of the net capacity of thermal power currently in operation in the basin. This energy-oriented nexus study explores the dependency on the basin’s water resources of the energy systems in the region for the period between 2015 and 2030. To do so, a multi-country electricity model was developed to provide a quantification ground to the analysis, using the open-source software modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Three main areas are subject to analysis: first, the impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies in the electricity generation mix; secondly, the potential impacts of climate change under a moderate climate change projection scenario; and finally, deriving from the latter point, the cumulative impact of an increase in water demand in the agriculture sector, for irrigation. Additionally, electricity trade dynamics are compared across the different scenarios under scrutiny, as an effort to investigate the implications of the aforementioned factors in the electricity markets in the region.

Variational ensemble Kalman filtering applied to data assimilation problems in computational fluid dynamics

One challenge on data assimilation (DA) methods is how the error covariance for the model state is computed. Ensemble methods have been proposed for producing error covariance estimates, as error is propagated in time using the non-linear model. Variational methods, on the other hand, use the concepts of control theory, whereby the state estimate is optimized from both the background and the measurements. Numerical optimization schemes are applied which solve the problem of memory storage and huge matrix inversion needed by classical Kalman filter methods. Variational Ensemble Kalman filter (VEnKF), as a method inspired the Variational Kalman Filter (VKF), enjoys the benefits from both ensemble methods and variational methods. It avoids filter inbreeding problems which emerge when the ensemble spread underestimates the true error covariance. In VEnKF this is tackled by resampling the ensemble every time measurements are available. One advantage of VEnKF over VKF is that it needs neither tangent linear code nor adjoint code. In this thesis, VEnKF has been applied to a two-dimensional shallow water model simulating a dam-break experiment. The model is a public code with water height measurements recorded in seven stations along the 21:2 m long 1:4 m wide flume’s mid-line. Because the data were too sparse to assimilate the 30 171 model state vector, we chose to interpolate the data both in time and in space. The results of the assimilation were compared with that of a pure simulation. We have found that the results revealed by the VEnKF were more realistic, without numerical artifacts present in the pure simulation. Creating a wrapper code for a model and DA scheme might be challenging, especially when the two were designed independently or are poorly documented. In this thesis we have presented a non-intrusive approach of coupling the model and a DA scheme. An external program is used to send and receive information between the model and DA procedure using files. The advantage of this method is that the model code changes needed are minimal, only a few lines which facilitate input and output. Apart from being simple to coupling, the approach can be employed even if the two were written in different programming languages, because the communication is not through code. The non-intrusive approach is made to accommodate parallel computing by just telling the control program to wait until all the processes have ended before the DA procedure is invoked. It is worth mentioning the overhead increase caused by the approach, as at every assimilation cycle both the model and the DA procedure have to be initialized. Nonetheless, the method can be an ideal approach for a benchmark platform in testing DA methods. The non-intrusive VEnKF has been applied to a multi-purpose hydrodynamic model COHERENS to assimilate Total Suspended Matter (TSM) in lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi. The lake has an area of 154 km2 with an average depth of 5:4 m. Turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentrations from MERIS satellite images for 7 days between May 16 and July 6 2009 were available. The effect of the organic matter has been computationally eliminated to obtain TSM data. Because of computational demands from both COHERENS and VEnKF, we have chosen to use 1 km grid resolution. The results of the VEnKF have been compared with the measurements recorded at an automatic station located at the North-Western part of the lake. However, due to TSM data sparsity in both time and space, it could not be well matched. The use of multiple automatic stations with real time data is important to elude the time sparsity problem. With DA, this will help in better understanding the environmental hazard variables for instance. We have found that using a very high ensemble size does not necessarily improve the results, because there is a limit whereby additional ensemble members add very little to the performance. Successful implementation of the non-intrusive VEnKF and the ensemble size limit for performance leads to an emerging area of Reduced Order Modeling (ROM). To save computational resources, running full-blown model in ROM is avoided. When the ROM is applied with the non-intrusive DA approach, it might result in a cheaper algorithm that will relax computation challenges existing in the field of modelling and DA.

Heat transfer performance investigation of nanofluids flow in pipe

Different types of base fluids, such as water, engine oil, kerosene, ethanol, methanol, ethylene glycol etc. are usually used to increase the heat transfer performance in many engineering applications. But these conventional heat transfer fluids have often several limitations. One of those major limitations is that the thermal conductivity of each of these base fluids is very low and this results a lower heat transfer rate in thermal engineering systems. Such limitation also affects the performance of different equipments used in different heat transfer process industries. To overcome such an important drawback, researchers over the years have considered a new generation heat transfer fluid, simply known as nanofluid with higher thermal conductivity. This new generation heat transfer fluid is a mixture of nanometre-size particles and different base fluids. Different researchers suggest that adding spherical or cylindrical shape of uniform/non-uniform nanoparticles into a base fluid can remarkably increase the thermal conductivity of nanofluid. Such augmentation of thermal conductivity could play a more significant role in enhancing the heat transfer rate than that of the base fluid. Nanoparticles diameters used in nanofluid are usually considered to be less than or equal to 100 nm and the nanoparticles concentration usually varies from 5% to 10%. Different researchers mentioned that the smaller nanoparticles concentration with size diameter of 100 nm could enhance the heat transfer rate more significantly compared to that of base fluids. But it is not obvious what effect it will have on the heat transfer performance when nanofluids contain small size nanoparticles of less than 100 nm with different concentrations. Besides, the effect of static and moving nanoparticles on the heat transfer of nanofluid is not known too. The idea of moving nanoparticles brings the effect of Brownian motion of nanoparticles on the heat transfer. The aim of this work is, therefore, to investigate the heat transfer performance of nanofluid using a combination of smaller size of nanoparticles with different concentrations considering the Brownian motion of nanoparticles. A horizontal pipe has been considered as a physical system within which the above mentioned nanofluid performances are investigated under transition to turbulent flow conditions. Three different types of numerical models, such as single phase model, Eulerian-Eulerian multi-phase mixture model and Eulerian-Lagrangian discrete phase model have been used while investigating the performance of nanofluids. The most commonly used model is single phase model which is based on the assumption that nanofluids behave like a conventional fluid. The other two models are used when the interaction between solid and fluid particles is considered. However, two different phases, such as fluid and solid phases is also considered in the Eulerian-Eulerian multi-phase mixture model. Thus, these phases create a fluid-solid mixture. But, two phases in the Eulerian-Lagrangian discrete phase model are independent. One of them is a solid phase and the other one is a fluid phase. In addition, RANS (Reynolds Average Navier Stokes) based Standard κ-ω and SST κ-ω transitional models have been used for the simulation of transitional flow. While the RANS based Standard κ-ϵ, Realizable κ-ϵ and RNG κ-ϵ turbulent models are used for the simulation of turbulent flow. Hydrodynamic as well as temperature behaviour of transition to turbulent flows of nanofluids through the horizontal pipe is studied under a uniform heat flux boundary condition applied to the wall with temperature dependent thermo-physical properties for both water and nanofluids. Numerical results characterising the performances of velocity and temperature fields are presented in terms of velocity and temperature contours, turbulent kinetic energy contours, surface temperature, local and average Nusselt numbers, Darcy friction factor, thermal performance factor and total entropy generation. New correlations are also proposed for the calculation of average Nusselt number for both the single and multi-phase models. Result reveals that the combination of small size of nanoparticles and higher nanoparticles concentrations with the Brownian motion of nanoparticles shows higher heat transfer enhancement and thermal performance factor than those of water. Literature suggests that the use of nanofluids flow in an inclined pipe at transition to turbulent regimes has been ignored despite its significance in real-life applications. Therefore, a particular investigation has been carried out in this thesis with a view to understand the heat transfer behaviour and performance of an inclined pipe under transition flow condition. It is found that the heat transfer rate decreases with the increase of a pipe inclination angle. Also, a higher heat transfer rate is found for a horizontal pipe under forced convection than that of an inclined pipe under mixed convection.

Impact of radiofrequency ablation for patients with varicose veins on the budget of the German statutory health insurance system

Objectives: In contrast to other countries, surgery still represents the common invasive treatment for varicose veins in Germany. However, radiofrequency ablation, e.g. ClosureFast, becomes more and more popular in other countries due to potential better results and reduced side effects. This treatment option may cause less follow-up costs and is a more convenient procedure for patients, which could justify an introduction in the statutory benefits catalogue. Therefore, we aim at calculating the budget impact of a general reimbursement of ClosureFast in Germany. Methods: To assess the budget impact of including ClosureFast in the German statutory benefits catalogue, we developed a multi-cohort Markov model and compared the costs of a “World with ClosureFast” with a “World without ClosureFast” over a time horizon of five years. To address the uncertainty of input parameters, we conducted three different types of sensitivity analysis (one-way, scenario, probabilistic). Results: In the Base Case scenario, the introduction of the ClosureFast system for the treatment of varicose veins saves costs of about 19.1 Mio. € over a time horizon of five years in Germany. However, the results scatter in the sensitivity analyses due to limited evidence of some key input parameters. Conclusions: Results of the budget impact analysis indicate that a general reimbursement of ClosureFast has the potential to be cost-saving in the German Statutory Health Insurance.

Cooperative multi-AUV tracking of phytoplankton blooms based on ocean model predictions

In recent years, ocean scientists have started to employ many new forms of technology as integral pieces in oceanographic data collection for the study and prediction of complex and dynamic ocean phenomena. One area of technological advancement in ocean sampling if the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) as mobile sensor plat- forms. Currently, most AUV deployments execute a lawnmower- type pattern or repeated transects for surveys and sampling missions. An advantage of these missions is that the regularity of the trajectory design generally makes it easier to extract the exact path of the vehicle via post-processing. However, if the deployment region for the pattern is poorly selected, the AUV can entirely miss collecting data during an event of specific interest. Here, we consider an innovative technology toolchain to assist in determining the deployment location and executed paths for AUVs to maximize scientific information gain about dynamically evolving ocean phenomena. In particular, we provide an assessment of computed paths based on ocean model predictions designed to put AUVs in the right place at the right time to gather data related to the understanding of algal and phytoplankton blooms.

Electron quantum path tuning and isolated attosecond pulse emission driven by a waveform-controlled multi-cycle laser field

We investigate high-order harmonic emission and isolated attosecond pulse (IAP) generation in atoms driven by a two-colour multi-cycle laser field consisting of an 800 nm pulse and an infrared laser pulse at an arbitrary wavelength. With moderate laser intensity, an IAP of similar to 220 as can be generated in helium atoms by using two-colour laser pulses of 35 fs/800 nm and 46 fs/1150 nm. The discussion based on the three-step semiclassical model, and time-frequency analysis shows a clear picture of the high-order harmonic generation in the waveform-controlled laser field which is of benefit to the generation of XUV IAP and attosecond electron pulses. When the propagation effect is included, the duration of the IAP can be shorter than 200 as, when the driving laser pulses are focused 1 mm before the gas medium with a length between 1.5 mm and 2 mm.

Multi-channel 2-D pattern transfer model based on imaging optics for submarine laser uplink communication

An optical communication scheme of 2-D pattern transfer based on imaging optics for submarine laser uplink communication (SLUC) is suggested. Unlike the methods aiming at avoiding neighboring crosstalk used in traditional multi-channel optical beam transferring, we make full use of the overlapping of each spreading beam other than controlling divergence effect of each beam to avoid interference noise. The apparent parameters have been introduced to simplify theoretical analysis of optical pattern transfer problem involving underwater condition, with the help of which the complex beam propagation inside two kinds of mediums can be easily reduced to brief beam transfer only inside air medium. In this paper, optical transmission path and receiver terminal optics geometry have been described in detail. The link range equation and system uplink performance analysis have also been given. At last, results of a proof-of-concept experiment indicate good feasibility of the proposed SLUC model. © 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

An integrated multi-stage model of knowledge management in international joint ventures: identifying a trigger for knowledge exploration and knowledge harvest

This paper examines the evolution of knowledge management from the initial knowledge migration stage, through adaptation and creation, to the reverse knowledge migration stage in international joint ventures (IJVs). While many studies have analyzed these stages (mostly focusing on knowledge transfer), we investigated the path-dependent nature of knowledge flow in IJVs. The results from the empirical analysis based on a survey of 136 Korean parent companies of IJVs reveal that knowledge management in IJVs follows a sequential, multi-stage process, and that the knowledge transferred from parents to IJVs must first be adapted within its new environment before it reaches the creation stage. We also found that only created knowledge is transferred back to parents.