Evaluation of two cloud parametrization schemes using ARM and Cloudnet observations

Ground-based remote-sensing observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Cloud-Net sites are used to evaluate the clouds predicted by a weather forecasting and climate model. By evaluating the cloud predictions using separate measures for the errors in frequency of occurrence, amount when present, and timing, we provide a detailed assessment of the model performance, which is relevant to weather and climate time-scales. Importantly, this methodology will be of great use when attempting to develop a cloud parametrization scheme, as it provides a clearer picture of the current deficiencies in the predicted clouds. Using the Met Office Unified Model, it is shown that when cloud fractions produced by a diagnostic and a prognostic cloud scheme are compared, the prognostic cloud scheme shows improvements to the biases in frequency of occurrence of low, medium and high cloud and to the frequency distributions of cloud amount when cloud is present. The mean cloud profiles are generally improved, although it is shown that in some cases the diagnostic scheme produced misleadingly good mean profiles as a result of compensating errors in frequency of occurrence and amount when present. Some biases remain when using the prognostic scheme, notably the underprediction of mean ice cloud fraction due to the amount when present being too low, and the overprediction of mean liquid cloud fraction due to the frequency of occurrence being too high.

A regime-dependent parametrization of subgrid-scale cloud water content variability

The subgrid-scale spatial variability in cloud water content can be described by a parameter f called the fractional standard deviation. This is equal to the standard deviation of the cloud water content divided by the mean. This parameter is an input to schemes that calculate the impact of subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity on gridbox-mean radiative fluxes and microphysical process rates. A new regime-dependent parametrization of the spatial variability of cloud water content is derived from CloudSat observations of ice clouds. In addition to the dependencies on horizontal and vertical resolution and cloud fraction included in previous parametrizations, the new parametrization includes an explicit dependence on cloud type. The new parametrization is then implemented in the Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model and used to model the effects of subgrid variability of both ice and liquid water content on radiative fluxes and autoconversion and accretion rates in three 20-year atmosphere-only climate simulations. These simulations show the impact of the new regime-dependent parametrization on diagnostic radiation calculations, interactive radiation calculations and both interactive radiation calculations and in a new warm microphysics scheme. The control simulation uses a globally constant f value of 0.75 to model the effect of cloud water content variability on radiative fluxes. The use of the new regime-dependent parametrization in the model results in a global mean which is higher than the control's fixed value and a global distribution of f which is closer to CloudSat observations. When the new regime-dependent parametrization is used in radiative transfer calculations only, the magnitudes of short-wave and long-wave top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing are reduced, increasing the existing global mean biases in the control. When also applied in a new warm microphysics scheme, the short-wave global mean bias is reduced.

L1 Acquisition of interface properties across Portuguese dialects: modular and interdisciplinary interfaces as sources of explanation

This study investigates the child (L1) acquisition of properties at the interfaces of morphosyntax, syntax-semantics and syntax-pragmatics, by focusing on inflected infinitives in European Portuguese (EP). Three child groups were tested, 6–7-year-olds, 9–10-year-olds and 11–12-year-olds, as well as an adult control group. The data demonstrate that children as young as 6 have knowledge of the morpho-syntactic properties of inflected infinitives, although they seem at first glance to show partially insufficient knowledge of their syntax–semantic interface properties (i.e. non-obligatory control properties), differently from children aged 9 and older, who show clearer evidence of knowledge of both types of properties. However, in general, both morpho-syntactic and syntax–semantics interface properties are also accessible to 6–7-year-old children, although these children give preference to a range of interpretations partially different from the adults; in certain cases, they may not appeal to certain pragmatic inferences that permit additional interpretations to adults and older children. Crucially, our data demonstrate that EP children master the two types of properties of inflected infinitives years before Brazilian Portuguese children do (Pires and Rothman, 2009a,b), reasons for and implications of which we discuss in detail.

Inferential Implications of Over-Parametrization: A Case Study in Incomplete Categorical Data

P>In the context of either Bayesian or classical sensitivity analyses of over-parametrized models for incomplete categorical data, it is well known that prior-dependence on posterior inferences of nonidentifiable parameters or that too parsimonious over-parametrized models may lead to erroneous conclusions. Nevertheless, some authors either pay no attention to which parameters are nonidentifiable or do not appropriately account for possible prior-dependence. We review the literature on this topic and consider simple examples to emphasize that in both inferential frameworks, the subjective components can influence results in nontrivial ways, irrespectively of the sample size. Specifically, we show that prior distributions commonly regarded as slightly informative or noninformative may actually be too informative for nonidentifiable parameters, and that the choice of over-parametrized models may drastically impact the results, suggesting that a careful examination of their effects should be considered before drawing conclusions.Resume Que ce soit dans un cadre Bayesien ou classique, il est bien connu que la surparametrisation, dans les modeles pour donnees categorielles incompletes, peut conduire a des conclusions erronees. Cependant, certains auteurs persistent a negliger les problemes lies a la presence de parametres non identifies. Nous passons en revue la litterature dans ce domaine, et considerons quelques exemples surparametres simples dans lesquels les elements subjectifs influencent de facon non negligeable les resultats, independamment de la taille des echantillons. Plus precisement, nous montrons comment des a priori consideres comme peu ou non-informatifs peuvent se reveler extremement informatifs en ce qui concerne les parametres non identifies, et que le recours a des modeles surparametres peut avoir sur les conclusions finales un impact considerable. Ceci suggere un examen tres attentif de l`impact potentiel des a priori.

Hypercentral unit groups and the hyperbolicity of a modular group algebra

We classify groups G such that the unit group U-1 (ZG) is hypercentral. In the second part, we classify groups G whose modular group algebra has hyperbolic unit groups U-1 (KG).

Improved maximum-likelihood estimation in a regression model with general parametrization

We analyse the finite-sample behaviour of two second-order bias-corrected alternatives to the maximum-likelihood estimator of the parameters in a multivariate normal regression model with general parametrization proposed by Patriota and Lemonte [A. G. Patriota and A. J. Lemonte, Bias correction in a multivariate regression model with genereal parameterization, Stat. Prob. Lett. 79 (2009), pp. 1655-1662]. The two finite-sample corrections we consider are the conventional second-order bias-corrected estimator and the bootstrap bias correction. We present the numerical results comparing the performance of these estimators. Our results reveal that analytical bias correction outperforms numerical bias corrections obtained from bootstrapping schemes.

Synthesis of new fluorous modular chiral ligand derivatives from amino alcohols and application in enantioselective carbon-carbon bond-forming alkylation reactions

N-Trifluoracyl beta-chalcogeno amides and N-perfluoracyl beta-thio amide ligands were prepared by a simple and efficient reaction sequence. These new ligands were evaluated in palladium-catalyzed alkylation of rac-(E)-1,3-diphenyl-2-propenyl acetate in the presence of dimethyl malonate and an enantioselectivity of up to 99% was obtained. After catalysis, the fluorous ligand can be easily recovered by liquid-liquid extraction and reused without loss in the activity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proceedings from the 2nd seminar on Development of Modular Products : December 13-14, 2004, Campus Framtidsdalen, Dalarna University, Sweden

Companies are focusing on efforts increasing the overall efficiency at the same time as the ability to meet customer needs becomes even more important. There is a need to improve the organisation and the product design at the same time through the visualisation of how a product family design should be performed in order to adapt to customers, company internal issues, and long-term strategy. Therefore, there is a need for qualified personnel in today’s companies with the knowledge of product development and modularity. The graduate course Development of Modular Products at Högskolan Dalarna has the objective to provide such knowledge. As a part of the course, each student will individually perform extensive research within a chosen area with respect to Product Development and Modularity. This proceeding is the result of the students own work and was presented during a two day seminar at Dalarna University. The contents of the papers cover many areas, from the identification of customer needs to cost effective manufacturing, and benefits of modularisation. The reader of this proceeding will not only benefit from many areas within Product Development and Modularity but also from the colour of many cultures. In this proceeding, students from nine countries are represented (Bangladesh, China, Costa Rica, Germany, Holland, India, Luxembourg Nigeria, and Sweden). Enjoy the reading.

Studies of Design and Assembly Defects on Integrated and Modular Architectures

It is known that despite companies’ efforts to improve the quality of their products, design and assembly defects results in large repair costs both in terms of repair and providing feedback to the origin of the defect. The purpose of this paper is to study these types of defects and the defect rates in design and assembly. The paper presents a web based questionnaire answered by 29 companies. The result shows that the defect rate (defects per product) spanned from 0.01 to 10. Also, design and assembly defects covered 46%, 23% respectively, of all occurred defects. A case study is also presented, performed at a company who recently implemented a modular architecture. In this company, defects from 5 700 integrated product architectures are compared with defects from 431 modular architectures. The average defect rate increased by 21.5% – from 0.65 to 0.79 – when a more modular architecture has been implemented. Furthermore, the study showed that the assembly defects have decreased while the design defects increased. The results presented in this paper will also support the development of the MPV (Module Property Verification) method which is briefly described.

Module property verification : A method to plan and perform quality verifications in modular architectures

Modular product architectures have generated numerous benefits for companies in terms of cost, lead-time and quality. The defined interfaces and the module’s properties decrease the effort to develop new product variants, and provide an opportunity to perform parallel tasks in design, manufacturing and assembly. The background of this thesis is that companies perform verifications (tests, inspections and controls) of products late, when most of the parts have been assembled. This extends the lead-time to delivery and ruins benefits from a modular product architecture; specifically when the verifications are extensive and the frequency of detected defects is high. Due to the number of product variants obtained from the modular product architecture, verifications must handle a wide range of equipment, instructions and goal values to ensure that high quality products can be delivered. As a result, the total benefits from a modular product architecture are difficult to achieve. This thesis describes a method for planning and performing verifications within a modular product architecture. The method supports companies by utilizing the defined modules for verifications already at module level, so called MPV (Module Property Verification). With MPV, defects are detected at an earlier point, compared to verification of a complete product, and the number of verifications is decreased. The MPV method is built up of three phases. In Phase A, candidate modules are evaluated on the basis of costs and lead-time of the verifications and the repair of defects. An MPV-index is obtained which quantifies the module and indicates if the module should be verified at product level or by MPV. In Phase B, the interface interaction between the modules is evaluated, as well as the distribution of properties among the modules. The purpose is to evaluate the extent to which supplementary verifications at product level is needed. Phase C supports a selection of the final verification strategy. The cost and lead-time for the supplementary verifications are considered together with the results from Phase A and B. The MPV method is based on a set of qualitative and quantitative measures and tools which provide an overview and support the achievement of cost and time efficient company specific verifications. A practical application in industry shows how the MPV method can be used, and the subsequent benefits

Modular Product Verifications Based on Design for Assembly

The desire to conquer markets through advanced product design and trendy business strategies are still predominant approaches in industry today. In fact, product development has acquired an ever more central role in the strategic planning of companies, and it has extended its influence to R&D funding levels as well. It is not surprising that many national R&D project frameworks within the EU today are dominated by product development topics, leaving production engineering, robotics, and systems on the sidelines. The reasons may be many but, unfortunately, the link between product development and the production processes they cater for are seldom treated in depth. The issue dealt with in this article relates to how product development is applied in order to attain the required production quality levels a company may desire, as well as how one may counter assembly defects and deviations through quantifiable design approaches. It is recognized that product verifications (tests, inspections, etc.) are necessary, but the application of these tactics often result in lead-time extensions and increased costs. Modular architectures improve this by simplifying the verification of the assembled product at module level. Furthermore, since Design for Assembly (DFA) has shown the possibility to identify defective assemblies, it may be possible to detect potential assembly defects already in the product and module design phase. The intention of this paper is to discuss and describe the link between verifications of modular architectures, defects and design for assembly. The paper is based on literature and case studies; tables and diagrams are included with the intention of increasing understanding of the relation between poor designs, defects and product verifications.

Contribuição à implementação da coordenação modular da construção no Brasil

A Coordenação Modular pode ser entendida como a ordenação dos espaços na construção civil. Surgiu entre a Primeira (1914-1918) e a Segunda (1939-1945) Guerras Mundiais e contribuiu de forma fundamental na reconstrução de edificações residenciais nos países destruídos pela guerra, principalmente na Alemanha, em função da rapidez e da redução de custos proporcionadas pela sua utilização. A partir de então, muitos estudos surgiram, aprofundando o assunto e mostrando os imensos benefícios que a Coordenação Modular trouxe para a racionalização e a industrialização na construção civil em um grande número de países, sendo amplamente difundida e, hoje se sabe, utilizada. O Brasil foi um dos pioneiros, em nível mundial, a aprovar uma norma de Coordenação Modular, a NB-25R, em 1950, tendo os anos 70 e início dos 80 tomados por seus conceitos e estudos a respeito. Apesar disso, poucos objetivos foram alcançados mesmo com toda a promoção para a racionalização da construção. As atuais preocupações com as questões ambientais, de produtividade e de redução de custos no setor são aliados para uma retomada dos estudos de Coordenação Modular, que se mostra como um fator fundamental para que se traga à construção civil os benefícios que a industrialização trouxe a outros setores industriais. Foi realizado um levantamento histórico, em que são abordadas as questões relativas ao uso do módulo na arquitetura e sua evolução até a Coordenação Modular, os princípios e conceitos mais importantes de sua teoria e as ações realizadas em favor de sua implantação no Brasil As últimas ações identificadas foram as normas publicadas em 1982, pouco antes do fechamento do Banco Nacional da Habitação, até então o principal incentivador da Coordenação Modular. Em seguida a esse hiato de duas décadas em que ficou praticamente esquecida, estudou-se a situação atual da indústria da construção civil sob alguns aspectos e partiu-se em busca do que pode ser feito para a implementação da Coordenação Modular no país. Chegou-se à conclusão de que, apesar dos entraves existentes, o Programa Brasileiro de Produtividade e Qualidade no Habitat (PBQP-H) mostra-se como um instrumento propício para essa implementação, pois, além de contar com o suporte estatal, tem influência sobre todos os intervenientes da cadeia produtiva.

Planejamento estratégico da cadeia de suprimentos: uma contribuição aos modelos de decisões comprar/fazer através da aplicação de uma estrutura de análise de decisão no caso do Consórcio Modular em Resende

Trata das diferentes formas que uma empresa pode executar suas atividades na sua cadeia produtiva, quer seja pela integração vertical, pela terceirização, ou por uma estrutura intermediária denominada Supply Chain Manegement. Aborda os diferentes modelos de análise de terceirização das atividades a fim de atuar no planejamento da Cadeia de Suprimentos, para, em seguida, propor uma estrutura de análise na tomada de decisão comprar ou fazer. A estrutura proposta é aplicada no Consórcio Modular em Resende.

Sistema modular de gestão de águas residuárias domiciliares : uma opção mais sustentável para a gestão de resíduos líquidos

Sistemas convencionais de coleta e tratamento de esgotos domiciliares apresentam níveis de eficiência técnica e econômica nem sempre compatíveis com a realidade de alguns assentamentos humanos. A observação da história e da atualidade dos sistemas de tratamento e disposição dos esgotos, mostra uma permanente deficiência do tratamento dos resíduos líquidos. O estudo do uso da água e do ciclo hidrológico, ressalta a importância de que a intervenção humana neste ciclo se dê de forma sustentável. Um sistema que trate as águas servidas no local, e permita o aproveitamento dos poluentes destas águas na forma de insumos para a produção vegetal, devolvendo-as, purificadas para o ciclo hidrológico, pela evapotranspiração e infiltração no solo, certamente é mais sustentável que a maioria das soluções hoje adotadas. Neste trabalho, a partir de uma revisão bibliográfica sobre alternativas tecnológicas, é apresentado um estudo comparativo de diferentes sistemas de coleta e tratamento de esgotos tendo como variáveis de análise os custos de construção, operação e manutenção, a área necessária para a implantação do sistema, os volumes dos lodos e dos gases produzidos, e a qualidade do efluente do tratamento. O tratamento, em separado, das águas residuárias residenciais, apoia-se em vários estudos realizados nos últimos anos, em especial da microbiologia dos esgotos. Destacam-se os que apontam a eficiência do tratamento diretamente relacionada à concentração dos esgotos e justificam a separação das águas negras (descargas hídricas dos vasos sanitários), das cinzas (demais águas servidas) Os estudos para o tratamento das águas cinzas, especificamente, onde se demonstra que estas últimas não têm os elevados índices de poluição das águas negras, permitem tratamentos mais simplificados e econômicos. Estes fundamentos estão aplicados em um sistema modular com separação das águas (SMSA), proposto neste trabalho, um sistema de construção simples, que utiliza materiais comuns, que requer pouca manutenção e não necessita de energia externa para o seu funcionamento. Este sistema proporciona um tratamento final seguro, pela disposição dos efluentes previamente tratados, no leito de evapotranspiração e infiltração que, bem operado, pode oferecer um tratamento a nível terciário. Palavras-chave: saneamento; tratamentos