Fiscal foresight, forecast revisions and the effects of government spending in the open economy

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate and the trade balance in the US using a new VAR identification procedure based on spending forecast revisions. I find that the real exchange rate appreciates and the trade balance deteriorates after a government spending shock, although the effects are quantitatively small. The findings broadly match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model and differ substantially from those existing in literature. Differences are attributable to the fact that, because of fiscal foresight, the government spending is non-fundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs. Here, on the contrary, the estimated shock is fundamental.

Inferring about individual drug and schizotypy effects on cognitive functioning in polydrug using mephedrone users before and after clubbing

Objective: Mephedrone has been recently made illegal in Europe, but little empirical evidence is available on its impact on human cognitive functions. We investigated acute and chronic effects of mephedrone consumption on drug-sensitive cognitive measures, while also accounting for the influence of associated additional drug use and personality features. Method: Twenty-six volunteers from the general population performed tasks measuring verbal learning, verbal fluency and cognitive flexibility before and after a potential drug-taking situation (pre- and post-clubbing at dance clubs, respectively). Participants also provided information on chronic and recent drug use, schizotypal (O-LIFE) and depressive symptoms (Beck depression inventory), sleep pattern and premorbid IQ. Results: We found that i) mephedrone users performed worse than non-users pre-clubbing, and deteriorated from the pre-clubbing to the post-clubbing assessment, ii) pre-clubbing cannabis and amphetamine (not mephedrone) use predicted relative cognitive attenuations, iii) post-clubbing, depression scores predicted relative cognitive attenuations, and iv) schizotypy was largely unrelated to cognitive functioning, apart from a negative relationship between cognitive disorganisation and verbal fluency. Conclusion: Results suggest that polydrug use and depressive symptoms in the general population negatively affect cognition. For schizotypy, only elevated cognitive disorganisation showed potential links to a pathological cognitive profile previously reported along the psychosis dimension.

Clinical and hormonal effects of the new angiotensin II receptor antagonist LRB081.

The renin-angiotensin system is a major contributor to the pathophysiology of cardiovascular diseases such as congestive heart failure and hypertension. Antagonizing angiotensin (Ang) II at the receptor site may produce fewer side effects than inhibition of the promiscuous converting enzyme. The present study was designed to assess in healthy human subjects the effect of LRB081, a new orally active AT1-receptor antagonist, on the pressor action of exogenous Ang II. At the same time, plasma hormones and drug levels were monitored. At 1-week intervals and in a double-blind randomized fashion, 8 male volunteers received three doses of LRB081 (10, 40, and 80 mg) and placebo. Blood pressure (BP) was measured at a finger by photoplethysmograph. The peak BP response to intravenous injection of a standard dose of Ang II was determined before and for < or = 24 h after administration of an oral dose of LRB081 or placebo. After drug administration, the blood BP response to Ang II was expressed in percent of the response before drug administration. At the same time, plasma renin activity (PRA), Ang II, aldosterone, catecholamine (radioassays), and drug levels (by high-performance liquid chromatography) were monitored. After LRB081 administration, a dose dependent inhibition of the BP response to Ang II was observed. Maximal inhibition of the systolic BP response was 54 +/- 3 (mean +/- SEM), 63 +/- 2, and 93 +/- 1% with 10, 40, and 80 mg LRB081, respectively. The time to peak was 3 h for 6 subjects and 4 and 6 h for 2 others. Preliminary plasma half-life (t1/2) was calculated at 2 h. With the highest dose, the inhibition remained significant for 24 h (31 +/- 5%, p < 0.05). Maximal BP-blocking effect and maximal plasma drug level coincided, suggesting that the unmetabolized LRB081 is responsible for the antagonistic effect. PRA and Ang II increased dose dependently after LRB081 intake. Aldosterone, epinephrine, and norepinephrine concentrations remained unchanged. No clinically significant adverse reaction was observed during the study. LRB081 is a well-tolerated, orally active, potent, and long-acting Ang II receptor antagonist. Unlike in the case of losartan, no active metabolite of LRB081 has been shown to be responsible for the main effects.

Hemodynamic, renal, and endocrine effects of 4-h infusions of human atrial natriuretic peptide in normal volunteers.

A synthetic human atrial natriuretic peptide of 26 aminoacids [human (3-28)ANP or hANP] was infused into normal male volunteers. Six subjects were infused for 4 h at 1-wk intervals with either hANP at the rate of 0.5 or 1.0 microgram/min or its vehicle in a single-blind randomized order. Human (3-28)ANP at the dose of 0.5 microgram/min raised immunoreactive plasma ANP levels from 104 +/- 17 to 221 +/- 24 pg/ml (mean +/- SEM), but it induced no significant change in blood pressure, heart rate, effective renal plasma flow, glomerular filtration rate, or renal electrolyte excretion. At the rate of 1.0 microgram/min, human (3-28)ANP increased immunoreactive plasma ANP levels from 89 +/- 12 to 454 +/- 30 pg/ml. It reduced effective renal plasma flow from 523 +/- 40 to 453 +/- 38 ml/min (P less than 0.05 vs. vehicle), but left glomerular filtration rate unchanged. Natriuresis rose from 207 +/- 52 to 501 +/- 69 mumol/min (P less than 0.05 vs. vehicle) and urinary magnesium excretion from 3.6 +/- 0.5 to 5.6 +/- 0.5 mumol/min (P less than 0.01 vs. vehicle). The excretion rate of the other electrolytes, blood pressure, and heart rate were not significantly modified. At both doses, human (3-28)ANP tended to suppress the activity of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. In 3 additional volunteers, the skin blood flow response to human (3-28)ANP, infused for 4 h at the rate of 1.0 microgram/min, was studied by means of a laser-doppler flowmeter. The skin blood flow rose during the first 2 h of peptide administration, then fell progressively to values below baseline. After the infusion was discontinued, it remained depressed for more than 2 h. Thus, in normal volunteers, human (3-28)ANP at the dose of 1.0 microgram/min produced results similar to those obtained previously with rat (3-28)ANP. It enhanced natriuresis without changing the glomerular filtration rate while effective renal plasma flow fell. It also induced a transient vasodilation of the skin vascular bed.

Textural, chemical, and isotopic effects of late-magmatic carbonatitic fluids in the carbonatite-syenite Tamazeght complex, High Atlas Mountains, Morocco

Carbonatites of the Eocene Tamazeght complex, High Atlas Mountains, Morocco, consist of calciocarbonatites (alvikite and sovite dykes) and magnesiocarbonatites (diatreme breccias and dykes rocks). These are associated with ultramafic, shonkinitic, gabbroic to monzonitic and various foid syenitic silicate units. Stable and radiogenic isotope compositions for carbonatites and silicate rocks indicate that they share a common source in the mantle, although for some carbonatitic samples contamination with sedimentary rocks seems important. The observed isotopic heterogeneity is mainly attributed to source characteristics, fractional crystallization (accompanied by various degrees of assimilation), and late- to post-magmatic fluid-rock interaction. During the late fluid-rock interaction, Sr, Mn, and possibly also Fe were mobilized and redistributed to form secondary carbonate minerals in carbonatites. These fluids also penetrated into the adjacent syenitic rocks, causing enrichment in the same elements.

Fishery-induced selection on an Alpine whitefish: quantifying genetic and environmental effects on individual growth rate

Size-selective fishing, environmental changes and reproductive strategies are expected to affect life-history traits such as the individual growth rate. The relative contribution of these factors is not clear, particularly whether size-selective fishing can have a substantial impact on the genetics and hence on the evolution of individual growth rates in wild populations. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of an isolated population of the Alpine whitefish Coregonus palaea. We determined the selection differentials on growth rate, the actual change of growth rate over time and indicators of reproductive strategies that may potentially change over time. The selection differential can be reliably estimated in our study population because almost all the fish are harvested within their first years of life, i.e. few fish escape fishing mortality. We found a marked decline in average adult growth rate over the 25 years and a significant selection differential for adult growth, but no evidence for any linear change in reproductive strategies over time. Assuming that the heritability of growth in this whitefish corresponds to what was found in other salmonids, about a third of the observed decline in growth rate would be linked to fishery-induced evolution. Size-selective fishing seems to affect substantially the genetics of individual growth in our study population.

Proactive motivation and engagement in career behaviors: Investigating direct, mediated, and moderated effects

Proactive career behaviors become increasingly important in today's career environment, but little is known about how and when motivational patterns affect individual differences. In a six-month longitudinal study among German university students (Study 1; N = 289) it was demonstrated that motivation in terms of "can do" (self-efficacy and context beliefs), "reason to" (autonomous career goals), and "energized to" (positive affect) significantly predicted career behaviors. Contrary to expectation, negative context beliefs had a positive effect when combined with other motivational states. Study 2 replicated and extended those results by investigating whether "can do" motivation mediates the effect of proactive personality and whether those effects are conditional upon the degree of career choice decidedness. We tested a moderated multiple mediation model with a unique sample of 134 German students, assessed three times, each interval being 6 weeks apart. The results showed that effects of proactivity were partially carried through higher self-efficacy beliefs but not context beliefs. Supporting a moderation model, indirect effects through self-efficacy beliefs were not present for students with very low decidedness.

Protective and Aggravating Effects of Nlrp3 Inflammasome Activation in IBD Models: Influence of Genetic and Environmental Factors.

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is characterized by chronic intestinal inflammation due to dysregulation of the mucosal immune system. The cytokines IL-1β and IL-18 appear early in intestinal inflammation and their pro-forms are processed via the caspase-1-activating multiprotein complex, the Nlrp3 inflammasome. Previously, we reported that the uptake of dextran sodium sulfate (DSS) by macrophages activates the Nlrp3 inflammasome and that Nlrp3(-/-) mice are protected in the acute DSS colitis model. Of note, other groups have reported opposing effects in regards to DSS susceptibility in Nlrp3(-/-) mice. Recently, mice lacking inflammasomes were found to develop a distinct intestinal microflora. Methods: To reconcile the contradicting observations, we investigated the role of Nlrp3 deficiency in two different IBD models: acute DSS colitis and TNBS (2,4,6-trinitrobenzene sulfonic acid)-induced colitis. In addition, we investigated the impact of the intestinal flora on disease severity by performing cohousing experiments of wild-type and Nlrp3(-/-) mice, as well as by antibiotic treatment. Results: Nlrp3(-/-) mice treated with either DSS or TNBS exhibited attenuated colitis and lower mortality. This protective effect correlated with an increased frequency of CD103+ lamina propria dendritic cells expressing a tolerogenic phenotype in Nlrp3(-/-) mice in steady state conditions. Interestingly, after cohousing, Nlrp3(-/-) mice were as susceptible as wild-type mice, indicating that transmission of endogenous bacterial flora between the two mouse strains might increase susceptibility of Nlrp3(-/-) mice towards DSS-induced colitis. Accordingly, treatment with antibiotics almost completely prevented colitis in the DSS model. Conclusions: The composition of the intestinal microflora significantly influences disease severity in IBD models comparing wild-type and Nlrp3(-/-) mice. This observation may - at least in part - explain contradictory results concerning the role of the inflammasome in different labs. Further studies are required to define the role of the Nlrp3 inflammasome in noninflamed mucosa under steady state conditions and in IBD.

Haben selektive COX-2-Hemmer unerwünschte renale und kardiovaskuläre Wirkungen [Do selective COX-2 inhibitors have adverse renal and cardiovascular effects?].

Selective cyclooxygenase-2-inhibitors (COX-2) were developed as an alternative to the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) in order to reduce their known gastrointestinal and renal toxicity. Several recent studies have shown the complex mechanism of the cyclooxygenase-2. The inhibition of the COX-2 has effects on renal hemodynamics, renal salt and water retention and may increase the thromboembolic and therefore the cardiovascular risk. The renal toxicity of the COX-2 inhibitors is similar to that of traditional NSAID. Regarding these data, COX-2 inhibitors should be prescribed with much caution to high risk patients, that is, patients with renal failure and/or cardiovascular diseases.

Comparison of the metabolic and endocrine effects of 3,5,3'-triiodothyroacetic acid and thyroxine.

To test the hypothesis that 3,5,3'-triiodothyroacetic acid (Triac) is more active as a TSH suppressor than on peripheral parameters of thyroid hormone action, the following parameters were studied: basal metabolic rate, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE), sex hormone-binding globulin, and cholesterol. In a double blind trial, 14 subjects received during 3 weeks (phase 1) 180 micrograms T4 or 1700 micrograms Triac daily, divided into 3 doses, to suppress thyroidal secretion. The dosage was doubled for the next 3 weeks (phase 2). Under T4 treatment, TSH reached 0.11 mU/L during phase 1 and less than 0.03 mU/L during phase 2. With Triac, a marked TSH inhibition occurred after 1 week (0.17 mU/L), followed by an escape during the following 2 weeks (0.63 mU/L). During phase 2, an almost complete TSH suppression was obtained (0.03 mU/L). Both Triac doses suppressed endogenous thyroid hormone secretion, as evidenced by T4 and rT3 levels. Both substances induced a 2-fold stimulation of sex hormone-binding globulin during phase 2. Serum cholesterol decreased similarly, without affecting the high/low density lipoprotein ratio. T4 increased SEE by 4.1% and 8.5% during phases 1 and 2. Triac failed to induce the expected peripheral metabolic responses of the thyroid hormones, as demonstrated by an unchanged SEE and basal metabolic rate. These results clearly show a preferential action of Triac on TSH suppression.

Social freezing in Switzerland and worldwide--a blessing for women today?

This is a critical review of the medical, ethical, judicial and financial aspects of the so called "social freezing", the cryopreservation of a woman's oocytes for non-medical purposes. The possibility of storing the eggs of fertile women in order to prevent age-related fertility decline is being widely promoted by fertility centres and the lay press throughout the world. Research data has shown that social freezing should ideally be performed on women around 25 years of age in order to increase their chances of a future pregnancy. In reality, it is mostly performed after the age of 35. Unfortunately, social freezing is in general not a solution for the underlying societal problems to fit in with professionally active women and having children. It only delays the existing problems. Furthermore, it creates a lot of potential new problems. A great deal more should be undertaken to offer real solutions to the underlying societal problems which are in part: pre-school education, care in the event of childhood illness, and the many weeks of school holidays, acceptance of professionally active women having children, and more job offers with a workload <100%.). Furthermore, society should be informed about the decreasing chances of pregnancy with increasing maternal (and paternal) age as well as the increasing risks of miscarriage and obstetric/neonatal complications. Detailed information for woman considering social freezing is crucial. Every doctor, proposing social freezing to his patients, should be up to date with all these details. Follow-up studies on the outcome of these children are needed.

Labeling Regulations and Segregation of First- and, Second-Generation Genetically Modified Products: Innovation Incentives and Welfare Effects, April 2005

We review some of the most significant issues and results on the economic effects of genetically modified (GM) product innovation, with emphasis on the question of GM labeling and the need for costly segregation and identity preservation activities. The analysis is organized around an explicit model that can accommodate the features of both first-generation and second-generation GM products. The model accounts for the proprietary nature of GM innovations and for the critical role of consumer preferences vis-à-vis GM products, as well as for the impacts of segregation and identity preservation and the effects of a mandatory GM labeling regulation. We also investigate briefly a novel question in this setting, the choice of “research direction”when both cost-reducing and quality-enhancing GM innovations are feasible.

Occupational sex-composition and earnings : individual and social effects

This paper investigates the micro and macro-level factors affecting the empirical association between occupational sex-composition and individual earnings. This is done in two analytical steps using data from the second round of the European Social Survey. In a first step, country-fixed-effects regressions are used to test the extent to which job-specialization, gender attitudes and the relative supply of domestic work can account for the impact of occupational sex-composition on earnings. In accordance with previous research, it is found that all these micro-level variables have a significant effect on the analyzed association, yet only job-specialization can explain it away by itself. In a second analytical step, macro-level interactions are tested under the hypothesis that defamilialization policies reduce the pay-offs of sphere specialization by sex, generating incentives for all types of women to invest in the labor market. Empirical results suggest that gender attitudes and the relative supply of housework are much more loosely associated to earning in social-democratic and former communist societies than in conservative or liberal regimes. This finding is interpreted as consistent with the defamilialization hypothesis.

Carvedilol inhibits the cardiostimulant and thermogenic effects of MDMA in humans.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The use of ± 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, 'ecstasy') is associated with cardiovascular complications and hyperthermia. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: We assessed the effects of the α(1) - and β-adrenoceptor antagonist carvedilol on the cardiostimulant, thermogenic and subjective responses to MDMA in 16 healthy subjects. Carvedilol (50 mg) or placebo was administered 1 h before MDMA (125 mg) or placebo using a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, four-period crossover design. KEY RESULTS Carvedilol reduced MDMA-induced elevations in blood pressure, heart rate and body temperature. Carvedilol did not affect the subjective effects of MDMA including MDMA-induced good drug effects, drug high, drug liking, stimulation or adverse effects. Carvedilol did not alter the plasma exposure to MDMA. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: α(1) - and β-Adrenoceptors contribute to the cardiostimulant and thermogenic effects of MDMA in humans but not to its psychotropic effects. Carvedilol could be useful in the treatment of cardiovascular and hyperthermic complications associated with ecstasy use.

Sovereign Risk, Anonymous Markets, and the Effects of Globalization

The goal of this paper is to study the e¤ects of globalization on the workings of financial markets. We adopt a "technological" view of globalization, which consists of an exogenous reduction in the cost of shipping goods across di¤erent regions of the world. We model financial markets where agents anonymously trade securities issued by every other agent in the world. In the absence of frictions, we show how globalization creates trade opportunities among residents of different regions of the world, thereby raising welfare. In the presence of sovereign risk, however, there emerge two crucial interactions between trade among residents within a region and trade among residents of di¤erent regions. First, the more residents within a region trade with each other, the more they can trade with residents of other regions. Second, the possibility of trade with residents of other regions sometimes leads a government to not enforce payments by its residents, destroying trade opportunities among residents within the region. The net effect on welfare of this process of creation and destruction of trade opportunities is ambiguous. We argue that there are no policies governments can take to avoid the negative effects of globalization on trade among domestic residents. In a dynamic extension, we analyze how our results are a¤ected by reputational considerations.