Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Spatial and temporal variability in a residual soil profile

It is well understood that that there is variation inherent in all testing techniques, and that all soil and rock materials also contain some degree of natural variability. Less consideration is normally given to variation associated with natural material heterogeneity within a site, or the relative condition of the material at the time of testing. This paper assesses the impact of spatial and temporal variability upon repeated insitu testing of a residual soil and rock profile present within a single residential site over a full calendar year, and thus range of seasonal conditions. From this repeated testing, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variation due to seasonal conditions has demonstrated that, depending on the selected location and moisture content of the subsurface at the time of testing, up to a 35% variation within the test results can be expected. The results have also demonstrated that the completed insitu test technique has a similarly large measurement and inherent variability error and, for the investigated site, up to a 60% variation in normalised results was observed. From these results, it is recommended that the frequency and timing of insitu tests should be considered when deriving geotechnical design parameters from a limited data set.

Error and variance bounds on sigmoidal neurons with weight and input errors

Bounds on the expectation and variance of errors at the output of a multilayer feedforward neural network with perturbed weights and inputs are derived. It is assumed that errors in weights and inputs to the network are statistically independent and small. The bounds obtained are applicable to both digital and analogue network implementations and are shown to be of practical value.

High-resolution GNSS-tracked drifter for studying surface dispersion in shallow water

The use of GNSS tracked Lagrangian drifters allows more realistic quantification of fluid motion and dispersion coefficients than Eulerian techniques because such drifters are analogues of particles that are relevant to flow field characterisation and pollutant dispersion. Using the fast growing Real Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning technique derived from Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS), drifters are developed for high frequency (10 Hz) sampling with position estimates to centimetre accuracy. The drifters are designed with small size and less direct wind drag to follow the sub-surface flow which characterizes dispersion in shallow waters. An analysis of position error from stationary observation indicates that the drifter can efficiently resolve motion up to 1 Hz. The result of the field deployments of the drifter in conjunction with acoustic Eulerian devices shows higher estimate of the drifter streamwise velocities. Single particle statistical analysis of field deployments in a shallow estuarine zone yielded dispersion coefficients estimate comparable to those of dye tracer studies. The drifters capture the tidal elevation during field studies in a tidal estuary.

Preparation of macroporous methacrylate monolithic material with convective flow properties for bioseparation : Investigating the kinetics of pore formation and hydrodynamic performance

The preparation of macroporous methacrylate monolithic material with controlled pore structures can be carried out in an unstirred mould through careful and precise control of the polymerisation kinetics and parameters. Contemporary synthesis conditions of methacrylate monolithic polymers are based on existing polymerisation schemes without an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of pore structure and formation. This leads to poor performance in polymer usage thereby affecting final product recovery and purity, retention time, productivity and process economics. The unique porosity of methacrylate monolithic polymer which propels its usage in many industrial applications can be controlled easily during its preparation. Control of the kinetics of the overall process through changes in reaction time, temperature and overall composition such as cross-linker and initiator contents allow the fine tuning of the macroporous structure and provide an understanding of the mechanism of pore formation within the unstirred mould. The significant effect of temperature of the reaction kinetics serves as an effectual means to control and optimise the pore structure and allows the preparation of polymers with different pore size distributions from the same composition of the polymerisation mixture. Increasing the concentration of the cross-linking monomer affects the composition of the final monoliths and also decreases the average pore size as a result of pre-mature formation of highly cross-linked globules with a reduced propensity to coalesce. The choice and concentration of porogen solvent is also imperative. Different porogens and porogen mixtures present different pore structure output. Example, larger pores are obtained in a poor solvent due to early phase separation.

A survey: Error control methods used in bio-cryptography

Integration of biometrics is considered as an attractive solution for the issues associated with password based human authentication as well as for secure storage and release of cryptographic keys which is one of the critical issues associated with modern cryptography. However, the widespread popularity of bio-cryptographic solutions are somewhat restricted by the fuzziness associated with biometric measurements. Therefore, error control mechanisms must be adopted to make sure that fuzziness of biometric inputs can be sufficiently countered. In this paper, we have outlined such existing techniques used in bio-cryptography while explaining how they are deployed in different types of solutions. Finally, we have elaborated on the important facts to be considered when choosing appropriate error correction mechanisms for a particular biometric based solution.

Negotiating indeterminacy in studio teaching: Using the zones of material and immaterial play to shape pedagogies and practices in art

The processes of studio-based teaching in visual art are often still tied to traditional models of discrete disciplines and largely immersed in skill-based learning. These approaches to training artists are also tied to an individual model of art practice that is clearly defined by the boundaries of those disciplines. This paper will explain how the open studio program at QUT can be broadly understood as an action research model of learning that ‘plays’ with the post-medium, post-studio genealogies and zones of contemporary art. This emphasises developing conceptual, contextual and formal skills as essential for engaging with and practicing in the often-indeterminate spatio-temporal sites of studio teaching. It will explore how this approach looks to Sutton-Smith’s observations on the role of play and Vygotsky’s zone of proximal development in early childhood learning as a way to develop strategies for promoting creative learning environments that are collaborative and self sustainable. Social, cultural, political and philosophical dialogues are examined as they relate to art practice with the aim of forming the shared interests, aims, and ambitions of graduating students into self initiated collectives or ARIs.

Static load bearing exercises of individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with an osseointegrated implant: Reliability of kinetic data

This study aimed at presenting the intra-tester reliability of the static load bearing exercises (LBEs) performed by individuals with transfemoral amputation (TFA) fitted with an osseointegrated implant to stimulate the bone remodelling process. There is a need for a better understanding of the implementation of these exercises particularly the reliability. The intra-tester reliability is discussed with a particular emphasis on inter-load prescribed, inter-axis and inter-component reliabilities as well as the effect of body weight normalisation. Eleven unilateral TFAs fitted with an OPRA implant performed five trials in four loading conditions. The forces and moments on the three axes of the implant were measured directly with an instrumented pylon including a six-channel transducer. Reliability of loading variables was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and percentage standard error of measurement values (%SEMs). The ICCs of all variables were above 0.9 and the %SEM values ranged between 0 and 87%. This study showed a high between-participants’ variance highlighting the lack of loading consistency typical of symptomatic population as well as a high reliability between the loading sessions indicating a plausible correct repetition of the LBE by the participants. However, these outcomes must be understood within the framework of the proposed experimental protocol.

An efficient DSE using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution

This paper presents an efficient noniterative method for distribution state estimation using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution (CMCGD). In the proposed method, the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the state variables is obtained in one step considering load uncertainties, measurement errors, and load correlations. In this method, first the bus voltages, branch currents, and injection currents are represented by MCGD using direct load flow and a linear transformation. Then, the mean and SD of bus voltages, or other states, are calculated using CMCGD and estimation of variance method. The mean and SD of pseudo measurements, as well as spatial correlations between pseudo measurements, are modeled based on the historical data for different levels of load duration curve. The proposed method can handle load uncertainties without using time-consuming approaches such as Monte Carlo. Simulation results of two case studies, six-bus, and a realistic 747-bus distribution network show the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of speed, accuracy, and quality against the conventional approach.

Estimates of lost material stock of buildings and roads due to the great east Japan earthquake and tsunami

This article describes research conducted for the Japanese government in the wake of the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck eastern Japan on March 11, 2011. In this study, material stock analysis (MSA) is used to examine the losses of building and infrastructure materials after this disaster. Estimates of the magnitude of material stock that has lost its social function as a result of a disaster can indicate the quantities required for reconstruction, help garner a better understanding of the volumes of waste flows generated by that disaster, and also help in the course of policy deliberations in the recovery of disaster-stricken areas. Calculations of the lost building and road materials in the five prefectures most affected were undertaken. Analysis in this study is based on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) databases and statistics; it aims to (1) describe in spatial terms what construction materials were lost, (2) estimate the amount of infrastructure material needed to rehabilitate disaster areas, and (3) indicate the amount of lost material stock that should be taken into consideration during government policy deliberations. Our analysis concludes that the material stock losses of buildings and road infrastructure are 31.8 and 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. This research approach and the use of spatial MSA can be useful for urban planners and may also convey more appropriate information about disposal based on the work of municipalities in disaster-afflicted areas.

Effect of constitutive material models on seismic response of two-story reinforced concrete frame

This paper focuses on the finite element (FE) response sensitivity and reliability analyses considering smooth constitutive material models. A reinforced concrete frame is modeled for FE sensitivity analysis followed by direct differentiation method under both static and dynamic load cases. Later, the reliability analysis is performed to predict the seismic behavior of the frame. Displacement sensitivity discontinuities are observed along the pseudo-time axis using non-smooth concrete and reinforcing steel model under quasi-static loading. However, the smooth materials show continuity in response sensitivity at elastic to plastic transition points. The normalized sensitivity results are also used to measure the relative importance of the material parameters on the structural responses. In FE reliability analysis, the influence of smoothness behavior of reinforcing steel is carefully noticed. More efficient and reasonable reliability estimation can be achieved by using smooth material model compare with bilinear material constitutive model.

Prediction of shrinkage and porosity during drying: Considering both material properties and process conditions

Drying of food materials offers a significant increase in the shelf life of food materials, along with the modification of quality attributes due to simultaneous heat and mass transfer. Shrinkage and variations in porosity are the common micro and microstructural changes that take place during the drying of mostly the food materials. Although extensive research has been carried out on the prediction of shrinkage and porosity over the time of drying, no single model exists which consider both material properties and process condition in the same model. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop and validate shrinkage and porosity models of food materials during drying considering both process parameters and sample properties. The stored energy within the sample, elastic potential energy, glass transition temperature and physical properties of the sample such as initial porosity, particle density, bulk density and moisture content have been taken into consideration. Physical properties and validation have been made by using a universal testing machine ( Instron 2kN), a profilometer (Nanovea) and a pycnometer. Apart from these, COMSOL Multiphysics 4.4 has been used to solve heat and mass transfer physics. Results obtained from models of shrinkage and porosity is quite consistent with the experimental data. Successful implementation of these models would ensure the use of optimum energy in the course of drying and better quality retention of dried foods.

A summary of the 'Engineering Education for Sustainable Development:Toolkit of Information & Teaching Material'

This paper reflects on the critical need for an urgent transformation of higher education curriculum globally, to equip society with professionals who can address our 21st Century sustainable living challenges. Specifically it discusses a toolkit called the ‘Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program’, which is a freely available, rigorously reviewed and robust content resource for higher education institutions to access content on innovations and opportunities in the process of evolving the curriculum...

Improving monocular SLAM with altimeter hints for fixed-wing aircraft navigation and emergency landing

This paper presents a visual SLAM method for temporary satellite dropout navigation, here applied on fixed- wing aircraft. It is designed for flight altitudes beyond typical stereo ranges, but within the range of distance measurement sensors. The proposed visual SLAM method consists of a common localization step with monocular camera resectioning, and a mapping step which incorporates radar altimeter data for absolute scale estimation. With that, there will be no scale drift of the map and the estimated flight path. The method does not require simplifications like known landmarks and it is thus suitable for unknown and nearly arbitrary terrain. The method is tested with sensor datasets from a manned Cessna 172 aircraft. With 5% absolute scale error from radar measurements causing approximately 2-6% accumulation error over the flown distance, stable positioning is achieved over several minutes of flight time. The main limitations are flight altitudes above the radar range of 750 m where the monocular method will suffer from scale drift, and, depending on the flight speed, flights below 50 m where image processing gets difficult with a downwards-looking camera due to the high optical flow rates and the low image overlap.

An efficient hole transport material composite based on poly(3-hexylthiophene) and bamboo-structured carbon nanotubes for high performance perovskite solar cells

In this work, we have developed a new efficient hole transport material (HTM) composite based on poly(3- hexylthiophene) (P3HT) and bamboo-structured carbon nanotubes (BCNs) for CH3NH3PbI3 (MAPbI3) based perovskite solar cells. Compared to pristine P3HT, it is found that the crystallinity of P3HT was significantly improved by addition of BCNs, which led to over one order of magnitude higher conductivity for the composite containing 1–2 wt% BCNs in P3HT. In the meantime, the interfacial charge transfer between the MAPbI3 light absorbing layer and the HTM composite layer based on P3HT/BCNs was two-fold faster than pristine P3HT. More importantly, the HTM film with a superior morphological structure consisting of closely compact large grains was achieved with the composite containing 1 wt% BCNs in P3HT. The study by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy has confirmed that the electron recombination in the solar cells was reduced nearly ten-fold with the addition of 1 wt% carbon nanotubes in the HTM composite. Owing to the superior HTM film morphology and the significantly reduced charge recombination, the energy conversion efficiency of the perovskite solar cells increased from 3.6% for pristine P3HT to 8.3% for P3HT/(1 wt% BCNs) with a significantly enhanced open circuit voltage (Voc) and fill factor (FF). The findings of this work are important for development of new HTM for high performance perovskite solar cells.