Global variation in the prevalence and incidence of major depressive disorder : a systematic review of the epidemiological literature

Background Summarizing the epidemiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) at a global level is complicated by significant heterogeneity in the data. The aim of this study is to present a global summary of the prevalence and incidence of MDD, accounting for sources of bias, and dealing with heterogeneity. Findings are informing MDD burden quantification in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study. Method A systematic review of prevalence and incidence of MDD was undertaken. Electronic databases Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE were searched. Community-representative studies adhering to suitable diagnostic nomenclature were included. A meta-regression was conducted to explore sources of heterogeneity in prevalence and guide the stratification of data in a meta-analysis. Results The literature search identified 116 prevalence and four incidence studies. Prevalence period, sex, year of study, depression subtype, survey instrument, age and region were significant determinants of prevalence, explaining 57.7% of the variability between studies. The global point prevalence of MDD, adjusting for methodological differences, was 4.7% (4.4–5.0%). The pooled annual incidence was 3.0% (2.4–3.8%), clearly at odds with the pooled prevalence estimates and the previously reported average duration of 30 weeks for an episode of MDD. Conclusions Our findings provide a comprehensive and up-to-date profile of the prevalence of MDD globally. Region and study methodology influenced the prevalence of MDD. This needs to be considered in the GBD 2010 study and in investigations into the ecological determinants of MDD. Good-quality estimates from low-/middle-income countries were sparse. More accurate data on incidence are also required.

Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity

Background Multi-strategic community wide interventions for physical activity are increasingly popular but their ability to achieve population level improvements is unknown. Objectives To evaluate the effects of community wide, multi-strategic interventions upon population levels of physical activity. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Public Health Group Segment of the Cochrane Register of Studies,The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, CINAHL, LILACS, PsycINFO, ASSIA, the British Nursing Index, Chinese CNKI databases, EPPI Centre (DoPHER, TRoPHI), ERIC, HMIC, Sociological Abstracts, SPORTDiscus, Transport Database and Web of Science (Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index). We also scanned websites of the EU Platform on Diet, Physical Activity and Health; Health-Evidence.org; the International Union for Health Promotion and Education; the NIHR Coordinating Centre for Health Technology (NCCHTA); the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and NICE and SIGN guidelines. Reference lists of all relevant systematic reviews, guidelines and primary studies were searched and we contacted experts in the field. The searches were updated to 16 January 2014, unrestricted by language or publication status. Selection criteria Cluster randomised controlled trials, randomised controlled trials, quasi-experimental designs which used a control population for comparison, interrupted time-series studies, and prospective controlled cohort studies were included. Only studies with a minimum six-month follow up from the start of the intervention to measurement of outcomes were included. Community wide interventions had to comprise at least two broad strategies aimed at physical activity for the whole population. Studies which randomised individuals from the same community were excluded. Data collection and analysis At least two review authors independently extracted the data and assessed the risk of bias. Each study was assessed for the setting, the number of included components and their intensity. The primary outcome measures were grouped according to whether they were dichotomous (per cent physically active, per cent physically active during leisure time, and per cent physically inactive) or continuous (leisure time physical activity time (time spent)), walking (time spent), energy expenditure (as metabolic equivalents or METS)). For dichotomous measures we calculated the unadjusted and adjusted risk difference, and the unadjusted and adjusted relative risk. For continuous measures we calculated percentage change from baseline, unadjusted and adjusted. Main results After the selection process had been completed, 33 studies were included. A total of 267 communities were included in the review (populations between 500 and 1.9 million). Of the included studies, 25 were set in high income countries and eight were in low income countries. The interventions varied by the number of strategies included and their intensity. Almost all of the interventions included a component of building partnerships with local governments or non-governmental organisations (NGOs) (29 studies). None of the studies provided results by socio-economic disadvantage or other markers of equity. However, of those included studies undertaken in high income countries, 14 studies were described as being provided to deprived, disadvantaged or low socio-economic communities. Nineteen studies were identified as having a high risk of bias, 10 studies were unclear, and four studies had a low risk of bias. Selection bias was a major concern with these studies, with only five studies using randomisation to allocate communities. Four studies were judged as being at low risk of selection bias although 19 studies were considered to have an unclear risk of bias. Twelve studies had a high risk of detection bias, 13 an unclear risk and four a low risk of bias. Generally, the better designed studies showed no improvement in the primary outcome measure of physical activity at a population level. All four of the newly included, and judged to be at low risk of bias, studies (conducted in Japan, United Kingdom and USA) used randomisation to allocate the intervention to the communities. Three studies used a cluster randomised design and one study used a stepped wedge design. The approach to measuring the primary outcome of physical activity was better in these four studies than in many of the earlier studies. One study obtained objective population representative measurements of physical activity by accelerometers, while the remaining three low-risk studies used validated self-reported measures. The study using accelerometry, conducted in low income, high crime communities of USA, emphasised social marketing, partnership with police and environmental improvements. No change in the seven-day average daily minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity was observed during the two years of operation. Some program level effect was observed with more people walking in the intervention community, however this result was not evident in the whole community. Similarly, the two studies conducted in the United Kingdom (one in rural villages and the other in urban London; both using communication, partnership and environmental strategies) found no improvement in the mean levels of energy expenditure per person per week, measured from one to four years from baseline. None of the three low risk studies reporting a dichotomous outcome of physical activity found improvements associated with the intervention. Overall, there was a noticeable absence of reporting of benefit in physical activity for community wide interventions in the included studies. However, as a group, the interventions undertaken in China appeared to have the greatest possibility of success with high participation rates reported. Reporting bias was evident with two studies failing to report physical activity measured at follow up. No adverse events were reported.The data pertaining to cost and sustainability of the interventions were limited and varied. Authors' conclusions Although numerous studies have been undertaken, there is a noticeable inconsistency of the findings in the available studies and this is confounded by serious methodological issues within the included studies. The body of evidence in this review does not support the hypothesis that the multi-component community wide interventions studied effectively increased physical activity for the population, although some studies with environmental components observed more people walking. Plain language summary Community wide interventions for increasing physical activity Not having enough physical activity leads to poorer health. Regular physical activity can reduce the risk of chronic disease and improve one's health and wellbeing. The lack of physical activity is a common and in some cases a growing health problem. To address this, 33 studies have used improvement activities directed at communities, using more than one approach in a single program. When we first looked at the available research in 2011 we observed that there was a lack of good studies which could show whether this approach was beneficial or not. Some studies claimed that community wide programs improved physical activities and other studies did not. In this update we found four new studies that were of good quality; however none of these four studies increased physical activity levels for the population. Some studies reported program level effects such as observing more people walking, however the population level of physical activity had not increased. This review found that community wide interventions are very difficult to undertake, and it appears that they usually fail to provide a measurable benefit in physical activity for a population. It is apparent that many of the interventions failed to reach a substantial portion of the community, and we speculate that some single strategies included in the combination may lack individual effectiveness. Laički sažetak Intervencije u zajednici za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti Nedostatna tjelesna aktivnost povezana je s lošijim zdravljem.Redovita tjelesna aktivnost može umanjiti rizik od kroničnih bolesti te poboljšati zdravlje i kvalitetu života pojedinca.Manjak tjelesne aktivnosti čest je problem, a učestalost tog problema se povećava.Cochrane sustavni pregled je analizirao 33 studije koje su istražile programe za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici, u kojima se koristilo više od jednog pristupa.Kad su prvi put pregledani dokazi iz istraživanja koja su bila dostupna 2011. godine, utvrđeno je da nema dovoljno dobrih studija koje bi mogle pokazati je li takav pristup koristan ili ne.Primjerice, neke studije tvrde da programi za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici poboljšavaju tjelesnu aktivnost pojedinaca u zajednici, a druge studije tvrde suprotno.U ovom obnovljenom sustavnom pregledu pronađene su 4 nove studije koje su bile visoke kvalitete, ail nijedna od tih studija nije pokazala da je istraživana intervencija dovela do povećanja tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici.Neke su studije opisale učinak na način da je opisano da je uočeno da više ljudi u zajednici hoda, međutim, ukupna razina tjelesne aktivnosti u promatranoj populaciji nije se povećala.Ovaj sustavni pregled je utvrdio da je intervencije za povećanje tjelesne aktivnosti u zajednici teško provesti i čini se da one obično ne uspijevaju u svojoj namjeri da na mjerljiv način povećaju tjelesnu aktivnost u populaciji.Čini se da mnoge intervencije nisu uspjele doseći veći broj stanovnika u zajednici pa se može smatrati da neke od strategija uključene u analizirane kombinacije nisu zasebno učinkovite.

Change in walking for transport : a longitudinal study of the influence of neighbourhood disadvantage and individual-level socioeconomic position in mid-aged adults

Background Unlike leisure time physical activity, knowledge of the socioeconomic determinants of active transport is limited, research on this topic has produced mixed and inconsistent findings, and it remains unknown if peoples’ engagement in active transport declines as they age. This longitudinal study examined relationships between neighbourhood disadvantage, individual-level socioeconomic position and walking for transport (WfT) during mid- and early old-age (40 – 70 years). Three questions were addressed: (i) which socioeconomic groups walk for transport, (ii) does the amount of walking change over time as people age, and (iii) is the change socioeconomically patterned? Methods The data come from the HABITAT study of physical activity, a bi-annual multilevel longitudinal survey of 11,036 residents of 200 neighbourhoods in Brisbane, Australia. At each wave (2007, 2009 and 2011) respondents estimated the duration (minutes) of WfT in the previous 7 days. Neighbourhood disadvantage was measured using a census-derived index comprising 17 different socioeconomic components, and individual-level socioeconomic position was measured using education, occupation, and household income. The data were analysed using multilevel mixed-effects logistic and linear regression. Results The odds of being defined as a ‘never walker’ were significantly lower for residents of disadvantaged neighbourhoods, but significantly higher for the less educated, blue collar employees, and members of lower income households. WfT declined significantly over time as people aged and the declines were more precipitous for older persons. Average minutes of WfT declined for all neighbourhoods and most socioeconomic groups; however, the declines were steeper for the retired and members of low income households. Conclusions Designing age-friendly neighbourhoods might slow or delay age-related declines in WfT and should be a priority. Steeper declines in WfT among residents of low income households may reflect their poorer health status and the impact of adverse socioeconomic exposures over the life course. Each of these declines represents a significant challenge to public health advocates, urban designers, and planners in their attempts to keep people active and healthy in their later years of life.

Social policy implications relating to road trauma in a rapidly motorising world : the example of China

The World Health Organization (WHO) identifies road trauma as a major public health issue in all countries, though most notably among low-to-middle income countries and particularly those experiencing rapid motorisation, such as China. As China transitions from a nation of bicycle riders and pedestrians to one where car ownership is increasingly desired, there is need to address the accompanying social policy challenges. With this increased motorisation has come an increased road trauma burden, shouldered disproportionately among the population. Vulnerable road users (i.e., pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists) are of primary concern because they are most frequently killed in road crashes, representing approximately 70% of all Chinese road-related fatalities. The aim of this paper is to summarise the scale of the road trauma burden, highlight the disparity of this burden across the Chinese population, and discuss the related social policy implications in dealing with the impact of deaths and of otherwise healthy lives diminished by injury and disability. Future research priorities are also discussed and include the need to strive to provide detailed information on the level of inequity of the road trauma burden across the population and identify appropriate social supports and healthcare services required, both preventative and post-crash, so these can be developed and implemented throughout China.

Investigating pedestrian injury crashes on modern roundabouts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Pedestrian crashes are one of the major road safety problems in developing countries representing about 40% of total fatal crashes in low income countries. Despite the fact that many pedestrian crashes in these countries occur at unsignalized intersections such as roundabouts, studies focussing on this issue are limited—thus representing a critical research gap. The objective of this study is to develop safety performance functions for pedestrian crashes at modern roundabouts to identify significant roadway geometric, traffic and land use characteristics related to pedestrian safety. To establish the relationship between pedestrian crashes and various causal factors, detailed data including various forms of exposure, geometric and traffic characteristics, and spatial factors such as proximity to schools and proximity to drinking establishments were collected from a sample of 22 modern roundabouts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, representing about 56% of such roundabouts in Addis Ababa. To account for spatial correlation resulting from multiple observations at a roundabout, both the random effect Poisson (REP) and random effect Negative Binomial (RENB) regression models were estimated and compared. Model goodness of fit statistics reveal a marginally superior fit of the REP model compared to the RENB model of pedestrian crashes at roundabouts. Pedestrian crossing volume and the product of traffic volumes along major and minor road had significant and positive associations with pedestrian crashes at roundabouts. The presence of a public transport (bus/taxi) terminal beside a roundabout is associated with increased pedestrian crashes. While the maximum gradient of an approach road is negatively associated with pedestrian safety, the provision of a raised median along an approach appears to increase pedestrian safety at roundabouts. Remedial measures are identified for combating pedestrian safety problems at roundabouts in the context of a developing country.

How costs change with infection prevention efforts

Purpose of review: To describe articles since January 2013 that include information on how costs change with infection prevention efforts. Recent findings: Three articles described only the costs imposed by nosocomial infection and so provided limited information about whether or not infection prevention efforts should be changed. One article was found that described the costs of supplying alcohol-based hand run in low-income countries. Eight articles showed the extra costs and cost savings from changing infection prevention programmes and discussed the health benefits. All concluded that the changes are economically worthwhile. There was a systematic review of the costs of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus control programmes and a methods article for how to make cost estimates for infection prevention programmes. Summary: The balance has shifted away from studies that report the high cost of nosocomial infections toward articles that address the value for money of infection prevention. This is good as simply showing a disease is high cost does not inform decisions to reduce it. More research, done well, on the costs of implementation, cost savings and change to health benefits in this area needs to be done as many gaps exist in our knowledge.

Emerging water treatment technologies for decentralised systems : an overview of selected systems suited for application in towns and settlements in remote and very remote regions of Australia and vulnerable and lagging rural regions in Sri Lanka

The primary purpose of this paper is to overview a selection of advanced water treatment technology systems that are suited for application in towns and settlements in remote and very remote regions of Australia and vulnerable and lagging rural regions in Sri Lanka. This recognises that sanitation and water treatment are inextricably linked and both are needed to reduce risks to environment and population health from contaminated water sources. For both Australia and Sri Lanka only a small fraction of the settlements in rural and remote regions are connected to water treatment facilities and town water supplies. In Australia’s remote/very remote regions raw water is drawn from underground sources and rainwater capture. Most settlements in rural Sri Lanka rely on rivers, reservoirs, wells, springs or carted water. Furthermore, Sri Lanka has more than 25,000 hand pumped tube wells which saved the communities during recent droughts. Decentralised water supply systems offer the opportunity to provide safe drinking water to these remote/very remote and rural regions where centralised systems are not feasible due to socio-cultural, economic, political, technological reasons. These systems reduce health risks from contaminated water supplies. In remote areas centralized systems fail due to low population density and less affordability. Globally, a new generation of advanced water treatment technologies are positioned to make a major impact on the provision of safe potable water in remote/very remote regions in Australia and rural regions in Sri Lanka. Some of these systems were developed for higher income countries. However, with careful selection and further research they can be tailored to match local socio-economic conditions and technical capacity. As such, they can equally be used to provide decentralised water supply in communities in developed and developing countries such as Australia and Sri Lanka.

Household food insecurity, diet, and weight status in a disadvantaged district of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: A cross-sectional study

Background Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and socially acceptable access to safe, sufficient, and adequately nutritious food in order to meet their dietary needs for an active and healthy life. For high income countries and those experiencing the nutrition transition, food security is not only about the quantity of available food but also the nutritional quality as related to over- and under-nutrition. Vietnam is currently undergoing this nutrition transition, and as a result the relationship between food insecurity, socio-demographic factors and weight status is complex. The primary objective of this study was to therefore measure the prevalence of household food insecurity in a disadvantaged urban district in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in Vietnam using a more comprehensive tool. This study also aims to examine the relationships between food insecurity and socio-demographic factors, weight status, and food intakes. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted using multi-stage sampling. Adults who were mainly responsible for cooking were interviewed in 250 households. Data was collected on socioeconomic and demographic factors using previously validated tools. Food security was assessed using the Latin American and Caribbean Household Food Security Scale (ELCSA) tool and households were categorized as food secure or mildly, moderately or severely food insecure. Questions regarding food intake were based on routinely used and validated questions in HCMC, weight status was self-reported. Results Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.87, showing the ELCSA had a good internal reliability. Approximately 34.4% of households were food insecure. Food insecurity was inversely related to total household income (OR = 0.09, 95% CI = 0.04 - 0.22) and fruit intakes (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.31 - 4.22). There was no association between weight and food security status. Conclusions Despite rapid industrialization and modernization, food insecurity remains an important public health issue in large urban areas of HCMC, suggesting that strategies to address food insecurity should be implemented in urban settings, and not just rural locations. Fruit consumption among food insecure households may be compromised because of financial difficulties, which may lead to poorer health outcomes particularly related to non-communicable disease prevention and management.

Associations between individual socioeconomic position, neighbourhood disadvantage, and transport mode: Baseline results from the HABITAT multilevel study

Background Understanding how different socioeconomic indicators are associated with transport modes provide insight into which interventions might contribute to reducing socioeconomic inequalities in health. The purpose of this study was to examine associations between neighbourhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage, individual-level socioeconomic position (SEP) and usual transport mode. Methods This investigation included 11,036 residents from 200 neighbourhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Respondents self-reported their usual transport mode (car or motorbike, public transport, walking or cycling). Indicators for individual-level SEP were education, occupation, and household income; and neighbourhood disadvantage was measured using a census-derived index. Data were analysed using multilevel multinomial logistic regression. High SEP respondents and residents of the most advantaged neighbourhoods who used a private motor vehicle as their usual form of transport was the reference category. Results Compared with driving a motor vehicle, the odds of using public transport were higher for white collar employees (OR1.68, 95%CrI 1.41-2.01), members of lower income households (OR 1.71 95%CrI 1.25-2.30), and residents of more disadvantaged neighbourhoods (OR 1.93, 95%CrI 1.46-2.54); and lower for respondents with a certificate-level education (OR 0.60, 95%CrI 0.49-0.74) and blue collar workers (OR 0.63, 95%CrI 0.50-0.81). The odds of walking for transport were higher for the least educated (OR 1.58, 95%CrI 1.18-2.11), those not in the labour force (OR 1.94, 95%CrI 1.38-2.72), members of lower income households (OR 2.10, 95%CrI 1.23-3.64), and residents of more disadvantaged neighbourhoods (OR 2.73, 95%CrI 1.46-5.24). The odds of cycling were lower among less educated groups (OR 0.31, 95% CrI 0.19-0.48). Conclusion The relationships between socioeconomic characteristics and transport modes are complex, and provide challenges for those attempting to encourage active forms of transportation. Further work is required exploring the individual- and neighbourhood-level mechanisms behind transport mode choice, and what factors might influence individuals from different socioeconomic backgrounds to change to more active transport modes.

Using political science to progress public health nutrition: a systematic review

Objective Poor dietary intake is the most important behavioural risk factor affecting health globally. Despite this, there has been little investment in public health nutrition policy actions. Policy process theories from the field of political science can aid understanding why policy decisions have occurred and identify how to influence ongoing or future initiatives. This review aims to examine public health nutrition policy literature and identify whether a policy process theory has been used to analyse the process. Design Electronic databases were searched systematically for studies examining policymaking in public health nutrition in high-income, democratic countries. Setting International, national, state and local government jurisdictions within high-income, democratic countries. Subjects Individuals and organisations involved in the nutrition policymaking process. Results Sixty-three studies met the eligibility criteria, most were conducted in the USA and a majority focused on obesity. The analysis demonstrates an accelerating trend in the number of nutrition policy papers published annually and an increase in the diversity of nutrition topics examined. The use of policy process theory was observed from 2003, however, it was utilised by only 14% of the reviewed papers. Conclusions There is limited research into the nutrition policy process in high-income countries. While there has been a small increase in the use of policy process theory from 2003, an opportunity to expand their use is evident. We suggest that nutrition policymaking would benefit from a pragmatic approach that ensures those trying to influence or understand the policymaking process are equipped with basic knowledge around these theories.

Varying sun protection of young children by migrant and Australian-born mothers

OBJECTIVE: To compare sun protection by Australian-born and migrant mothers of three-year-old children. METHODS: Australian-born and migrant mothers taking part in the Environments for Healthy Living prospective birth-cohort study were asked standard questions about their child's sun protection. Children were given a skin cancer susceptibility score based on grandparents' ethnic origin. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) to measure the association of sun protection of children according to mothers' migrant status adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 613 Australian-born and 224 migrant mothers of three-year-old children were studied. Mothers who had migrated less than four years ago were more likely to allow their three-year-old to spend more than two hours outdoors between 10 am and 3 pm compared to Australian-born mothers (OR=2.80, 95%CI 1.20-6.57). Mothers from high latitude countries (>45 degrees) were more likely to apply sunscreen to their child than those from lower latitude countries (OR=3.15, 95%CI 1.03-9.61). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Strategies should aim to increase general awareness about the need for sun protection of young children, and recent migrants should be alerted to the harms of excessive sun exposure.

The development and piloting of the ISPCAN child abuse screening tool-parent version (ICAST-P)

Objective Child maltreatment is a problem that has longer recognition in the northern hemisphere and in high-income countries. Recent work has highlighted the nearly universal nature of the problem in other countries but demonstrated the lack of comparability of studies because of the variations in definitions and measures used. The International Society for the Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect has developed instrumentation that may be used with cross-cultural and cross-national benchmarking by local investigators. Design and sampling The instrument design began with a team of expert in Brisbane in 2004. A large bank of questions were subjected to two rounds of Delphi review to develop the fielded version of the instrument. Convenience samples included approximately 120 parent respondents with children under the age of 18 in each of six countries (697 total). Results This paper presents an instrument that measures parental behaviors directed at children and reports data from pilot work in 6 countries and 7 languages. Patterns of response revealed few missing values and distributions of responses that generally were similar in the six countries. Subscales performed well in terms of internal consistency with Cronbach's alpha in very good range (0.77–0.88) with the exception of the neglect and sex abuse subscales. Results varied by child age and gender in expected directions but with large variations among the samples. About 15% of children were shaken, 24% hit on the buttocks with an object, and 37% were spanked. Reports of choking and smothering were made by 2% of parents. Conclusion These pilot data demonstrate that the instrument is well tolerated and captures variations in, and potentially harmful forms of child discipline. Practice implications The ISPCAN Child Abuse Screening Tool – Parent Version (ICAST-P) has been developed as a survey instrument to be administered to parents for the assessment of child maltreatment in a multi-national and multi-cultural context. It was developed with broad input from international experts and subjected to Dephi review, translation, and pilot testing in six countries. The results of the Delphi study and pilot testing are presented. This study demonstrates that a single instrument can be used in a broad range of cultures and languages with low rates of missing data and moderate to high internal consistency.

Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the global burden of disease 2013

Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and the evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce new global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990-2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were then applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990 – 2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world’s population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries, in contrast to increases estimated in South Asia, throughout much of Southeast Asia, and in China. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased in most countries from 1990 - 2013, with modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.

Disease control and management

Globally, the main contributors to morbidity and mortality are chronic conditions, including cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Chronic disease is costly and partially avoidable, with around 60% of deaths and nearly 50% of the global disease burden attributable to these conditions. By 2020, chronic illnesses will likely be the leading cause of disability worldwide. Existing healthcare systems that focus on acute episodic health conditions, both national and international, cannot address the worldwide transition to chronic illness; nor are they appropriate for the ongoing care and management of those already dealing with chronic diseases. As such, chronic disease management requires integrated approaches that incorporate interventions targeted at both individuals and populations, and emphasise the shared risk factors of different conditions. International and Australian strategic planning documents articulate similar elements to manage chronic disease, including the need for aligning sectoral policies for health, forming partnerships, and engaging communities in decision-making. Infectious diseases are also a common and significant contributor to ill health throughout the world. In many countries, this impact has been minimised by the combined efforts of preventative health measures and improved treatment methods. However, in low-income countries, infectious diseases remain the dominant cause of death and disability. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that infectious diseases (including respiratory infections) still account for around 23% (or around 14 million) of all deaths each year, and result in over 4.6 billion episodes of diarrhoeal disease and 243 million cases of malaria each year (Lozano et al. 2012, WHO 2009). In addition to the high level of mortality, infectious diseases disable many hundreds of millions of people each year, mainly in developing countries, with the global burden of disease from infectious diseases estimated to be around 300 million DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) (WHO 2012). The aim of this chapter is to outline the impact that infectious diseases and chronic diseases have on the health of the community, describe the public health strategies used to reduce the burden of those diseases, and discuss the historic and emerging disease risks to public health. This chapter examines the comprehensive approaches implemented to prevent both chronic and infectious diseases, and to manage and care for communities with these conditions.

Probiotics and prebiotics in the primary prevention of allergic diseases

The rapid increase in allergic diseases in developed, high-income countries during recent decades is attributed to several changes in the environment such as urbanization and improved hygiene. This relative lack of microbial stimulation is connected to a delay in maturation of the infantile immune system and seems to predispose especially genetically prone infants to allergic diseases. Probiotics, which are live ingestible health-promoting microbes, may compensate for the lack of microbial stimulation of the developing gut immune system and may thus be beneficial in prevention of allergies. Prebiotics, which are indigestible nutrients by us, promote the growth and activity of a number of bacterial strains considered beneficial for the gut. In a large cohort of 1 223 infants at hereditary risk for allergies we studied in a double-blind placebo-controlled manner whether probiotics administered in early life prevent allergic diseases from developing. We also evaluated their safety and their effects on common childhood infections, vaccine antibody responses, and intestinal immune markers. Pregnant mothers used a mixture of four probiotic bacteria or a placebo, from their 36th week of gestation. Their infants received the same probiotics plus prebiotic galacto-oligosaccharides for 6 months. The 2-year follow-up consisted of clinical examinations and allergy tests, fecal and blood sampling, and regular questionnaires. Among the 925 infants participating in the 2-year follow-up the cumulative incidence of any allergic disease (food allergy, eczema, asthma, rhinitis) was comparable in the probiotic (32%) and the placebo (35%) group. However, eczema, which was the most common manifestation (88%) of all allergic diseases, occurred less frequently in the probiotic (26%) than in the placebo group (32%). The preventive effect was more pronounced against atopic (IgE-associated) eczema which, of all atopic diseases, accounted for 92%. The relative risk reduction of eczema was 26% and of atopic eczema 34%. To prevent one case of eczema, the number of mother-infant pairs needed to treat was 16. Probiotic treatment was safe without any undesirable outcome for neonatal morbidity, feeding-related behavior, serious adverse events, growth, or for vaccine-induced antibody responses. Fewer infants in the probiotic than in the placebo group received antibiotics during their first 6 months of life and thereafter to age 2 years suffered from fewer respiratory tract infections. As a novel finding, we discovered that high fecal immunoglobulin A (IgA) concentrations at age 6 months associated with reduced risk for atopic (IgE-associated) diseases by age 2 years. In conclusion, although feeding probiotics to high-risk newborn infants showed no preventive effect on the cumulative incidence of any allergic diseases by age 2, they apparently prevented eczema. This probiotic effect was more pronounced among IgE-sensitized infants. The treatment was safe and seemed to stimulate maturation of the immune system as indicated by increased resistance to respiratory infections and improved vaccine antibody responses.