826 resultados para longitudinal Poisson data


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- Objective We sought to assess the effect of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution on the prevalence of self-reported health outcomes in Australian women. - Design Cross-sectional study - Setting and participants The geocoded residential addresses of 26 991 women across 3 age cohorts in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health between 2006 and 2011 were linked to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) exposure estimates from a land-use regression model. Annual average NO2 concentrations and residential proximity to roads were used as proxies of exposure to ambient air pollution. - Outcome measures Self-reported disease presence for diabetes mellitus, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and self-reported symptoms of allergies, breathing difficulties, chest pain and palpitations. - Methods Disease prevalence was modelled by population-averaged Poisson regression models estimated by generalised estimating equations. Associations between symptoms and ambient air pollution were modelled by multilevel mixed logistic regression. Spatial clustering was accounted for at the postcode level. - Results No associations were observed between any of the outcome and exposure variables considered at the 1% significance level after adjusting for known risk factors and confounders. - Conclusions Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution was not associated with self-reported disease prevalence in Australian women. The observed results may have been due to exposure and outcome misclassification, lack of power to detect weak associations or an actual absence of associations with self-reported outcomes at the relatively low annual average air pollution exposure levels across Australia.

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Hamstring strains in the Australian Football League (AFL) have a high incidence (15%) and recurrence rate (34%) with lateral hamstring injuries most common (83%). Retrospective studies have found significant muscle volume asymmetries ≤23 months post hamstring injury; however examination of the association between hamstring strains and muscle asymmetry has not been investigated prospectively. This study presents baseline data from a longitudinal study focusing on individual hamstring morphometry in uninjured and injured semi-elite AFL players.

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Limited studies have examined the associations between air pollutants [particles with diameters of 10um or less (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)] and fasting blood glucose (FBG). We collected data for 27,685 participants who were followed during 2006 and 2008. Generalized Estimating Equation models were used to examine the effects of air pollutants on FBG while controlling for potential confounders. We found that increased exposure to NO2, SO2 and PM10 was significantly associated with increased FBG levels in single pollutant models (p<0.001). For exposure to 4 days’ average of concentrations, a 100 µg/m3 increase in SO2, NO2, and PM10 was associated with 0.17 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.15–0.19), 0.53 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.42–0.65), and 0.11 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.07–0.15) increase in FBG, respectively. In the multi-pollutant models, the effects of SO2 were enhanced, while the effects of NO2 and PM10 were alleviated. The effects of air pollutants on FBG were stronger in female, elderly, and overweight people than in male, young and underweight people. In conclusion, the findings suggest that air pollution increases the levels of FBG. Vulnerable people should pay more attention on highly polluted days to prevent air pollution-related health issues.

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Purpose: Emotional intelligence (EI) is an increasingly important aspect of a health professional’s skill set. It is strongly associated with empathy, reflection and resilience; all key aspects of radiotherapy practice. Previous work in other disciplines has formed contradictory conclusions concerning development of EI over time. This study aimed to determine the extent to which EI can develop during a radiotherapy undergraduate course and identify factors affecting this. Methods and materials: This study used anonymous coded Likert-style surveys to gather longitudinal data from radiotherapy students relating to a range of self-perceived EI traits during their 3-year degree. Data were gathered at various points throughout the course from the whole cohort. Results: A total of 26 students provided data with 14 completing the full series of datasets. There was a 17·2% increase in self-reported EI score with a p-value<0·0001. Social awareness and relationship skills exhibited the greatest increase in scores compared with self-awareness. Variance of scores decreased over time; there was a reduced change in EI for mature students who tended to have higher initial scores. EI increase was most evident immediately after clinical placements. Conclusions: Radiotherapy students increase their EI scores during a 3-year course. Students reported higher levels of EI immediately after their clinical placement; radiotherapy curricula should seek to maximise on these learning opportunities.

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The goal of this research was to survey the self-concept and school achievement of pupils with cleft lip, cleft palate or both from juvenile age to adolescence. Longitudinal researches of self-concept and school achievement among pupils with cleft lip, cleft palate or both are uncommon. This research was the first longitudinal research ever conducted in Finland among this population. This research can be considered to be a special educational study because of the target group involved. Self-concept consists of the person s entire personality. Personality is biological and deterministic. Self-concept includes concepts, attitudes and feelings that the person has about him or her qualities, abilities and relations to the environment. The individual associates experiences to this personality with earlier observations through the social interaction. The individual will have the consciousness of the person s existence and action. The target group in this study consisted of Finnish children with clefts, who were comprised of four different age groups. The questionnaire was sent to all subjects (N1 = 419) both times. A total of 74 % of children returned the questionnaire in 1988 (N2=305). 48 % of children returned the questionnaire in 1993 (N3=203). 42% of children returned the questionnaire both times (N4=175) . These 175 children formed the research subjects. The survey was conducted in 1988, and again in 1993. In 1988, the pupils surveyed were 9 to 12 years of age, while in 1993 they were between 14 and 17 years old. The data was collected through the use of a questionnaire, which consisted of common questions and a personality inventory test that was developed for Finnish students by professor Maija-Liisa Rauste-von Wright. Quantitative analysis methods were used to examine the structure of self-concept and school achievement. Structures found in this research were observed in relation to disorder, gender and maturation. According to these results, structures of self-concepts and school achievement are in fact stable. Basic self-concept elements are seen to be formed at an early age. The developmental aspects of self-concept following puberty are observed as the stability of self-concept and as the forming of a general self. The level of school achievement is stable, but the structure of school achievement changes. From these results, it is possible to state that the gender of the child has a statistical significance regarding self-concept and school achievement. However, the experienced disorder does not have statistical significance as regards to self-concept and school achievement. Results of self-concept support the research of self-concept conducted earlier in Finland.

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Early-onset psychiatric illnesses effects scatter to academic achievements as well as functioning in familial and social environments. From a public health point of view, depressive disorders are the most significant mental health disorders that begin in adolescence. Using prospective and longitudinal design, this study aimed to increase the understanding of early-onset depressive disorders, related mental health disorders and developing substance use in a large population-derived sample of adolescent Finnish twins. The participants of this study, FinnTwin12, an ongoing longitudinal population-based study, came from Finnish families with twins born in 1983-87 (exhaustive of five birth cohorts, identified from Finland s Central Population Register). With follow-up ongoing at age 20-24, this thesis assessed adolescent mental health in the first three waves, starting from baseline age 11-12 to follow-ups at age 14 and 17½. Some 5600 twins participated in questionnaire assessments of a wide range of health related behaviors. Mental health was further assessed among an intensively studied subsample of 1852 adolescents, who completed also professionally administered interviews at age 14, which provided data for full DSM-IV/III-R (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Health disorders, 4th and 3rd editions) diagnoses. The participation rates of the study were 87-92%. The results of the study suggest, that the diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD) may not capture youth with clinically significant early-onset depressive conditions outside clinical settings. Milder cases of depression, namely adolescents fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for minor depressive disorder, a qualitatively similar condition to MDD with fewer symptoms are also associated with marked suicidal thoughts, plans and attempts, recurrences and a high degree of comorbidity. Prospectively and longitudinally, early-onset depressive disorders were of substantial importance in the context of other mental health disorders and substance use behaviors: These data from a large population-derived sample established a substantial overlap between early-onset depressive disorders and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adolescent females, both of them significantly predictive for development of substance use among girls. Only in females baseline DSM-IV ADHD symptoms were strong predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence and illicit drug use at age 14 and frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use at age 17.½ when conduct disorder and previous substance use were controlled for. Early-onset depressive disorders were also prospectively and longitudinally associated to daily smoking behavior, smokeless tobacco use, frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use and eating disorders. Analysis of discordant twins suggested that these predictive associations were independent of familial confounds, such as family income, structure and parental models. In sum, early-onset depressive disorders predict subsequent involvement of substance use and psychiatric morbidity. A heightened risk for substance use is substantial also among those depressed below categorical diagnosis of MDD. Whether early recognition and interventions among these young people hold potential for substance use prevention further in their lives has potential public health significance and calls for more research. Data from this population-derived sample with balanced representation of boys and girls, suggested that boys and girls with ADHD behaviors may differ from each other in their vulnerability to substance use and depressive disorders: the data suggest more adverse substance use outcome for girls that was not attenuated by conduct disorder or previous substance use. Further, the prospective associations of early-onset depressive disorders and future elevated levels of addictive substance use is not explained by familial factors supporting future substance use, which could have important implications for substance use prevention.

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Background. In Finland, the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is the highest in the world, and it continues to increase steadily. No effective preventative interventions exist either for individuals at high risk or for the population as a whole. In addition to problems with daily lifelong insulin replacement therapy, T1DM patients with long-lasting disease suffer from various diabetes related complications. The complications can lead to severe impairments and reductions in functional capacity and quality of life and in the worst case they can be fatal. Longitudinal studies on the costs of T1DM are extremely rare, especially in Finland. Typically, in these studies, distinctions between the various types of diabetes have not been made, and costs have not been calculated separately for the sexes. Aims. The aim of this study was to describe inpatient hospital care and costs of inpatient care in a cohort of 5,166 T1DM patients by sex during 1973-1998 in Finland. Inpatient care and costs of care due to T1DM without complications, due to T1DM with complications and due to other causes were calculated separately. Material and Methods. The study population consisted of all Finnish T1DM patients diagnosed before the age of 18 years between January 1st in 1965 and December 31st in 1979 and derived from the Finnish population based T1DM register (N=5,120 in 1979 and N=4,701 in 1997). Data on hospitalisations were obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. Results. In the early stages of T1DM, the majority of the use of inpatient care was due to the treatment of T1DM without complications. There were enormous increases in the use of inpatient care for certain complications when T1DM lasted longer (from 9.5 years to 16.5 years). For women, the yearly number of bed-days for renal complications increased 4.8-fold, for peripheral vascular disease 4.3-fold and for ophthalmic complications 2.5-fold. For men, the corresponding increases were as follows: 5-fold, 6.9-fold and 2.5-fold. The yearly bed-days for glaucoma increased 8-fold, nephropathy 7-fold and microangiopathy 6-fold in the total population. During these 7 years, the yearly numbers of bed-days for T1DM without complications dropped dramatically. The length of stay in inpatient care decreased notably, but hospital visits became more frequent when the length of duration of T1DM increased from 9.5 years to 16.5 years. The costs of treatments due to complications increased when T1DM lasted longer. Costs due to inpatient care of complications in the cohort 2.5-folded as duration of T1DM increased from 9.5 years to 16.5 years, while the total costs of inpatient care in the cohort dropped by 22% due to an 80% decrease in the costs of care of T1DM without complications. Treating complications of female patients was more expensive than treating complications of men when T1DM had lasted 9.5 years; the mean annual costs for inpatient care of a female diabetic (any cause) were 1,642 , and the yearly costs of care of complications were 237 . The corresponding yearly mean costs for a male patient were 1,198 and 167 . Treating complications of female patients was more expensive than that of male patients also when the duration of diabetes was 16.5 years, although the difference in average annual costs between sexes was somewhat smaller. Conclusions. In the early phases of T1DM, the treatment of T1DM without complications causes a considerable amount of hospital bed-days. The use of inpatient care due to complications of T1DM strongly increases with ageing of patients. The economic burden of inpatient care of T1DM is substantial.

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The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH) commenced in Australia in 1996 when researchers recruited approximately 40,000 women in three birth cohorts: 1973–1978, 1946–1951, and 1921–1926. Since then participants have completed surveys on a wide range of health issues, at approximately three-year intervals. This overview describes changes in physical activity (PA) over time in the mid-age and older ALSWH cohorts, and summarizes the findings of studies published to date on the determinants of PA, and its associated health outcomes in Australian women. The ALSWH data show a significant increase in PA during mid-age, and a rapid decline in activity levels when women are in their 80s. The study has demonstrated the importance of life stages and key life events as determinants of activity, the additional benefits of vigorous activity for mid-age women, and the health benefits of ‘only walking’ for older women. ALSWH researchers have also drawn attention to the benefits of activity in terms of a wide range of physical and mental health outcomes, as well as overall vitality and well-being. The data indicate that maintaining a high level of PA throughout mid and older age will not only reduce the risk of premature death, but also significantly extend the number of years of healthy life.

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This report summarises the findings of a three-year mixed methods research study designed to capture factors that influence horse owner Hendra virus (HeV) risk mitigation practices. The research project focuses on horse owners; their knowledge, attitudes, and risk mitigation practices, i.e. uptake of vaccination, property management, and biosecurity practices. A flexible research methodology enabled the tracking of core subject areas over time whilst also responding to new or evolving shifts in the HeV landscape, e.g. new HeV cases, event management, and issues arising in the vaccine roll-out. By tracking relationships within the data and engaging with stakeholders and the horse owner population, it is hoped that findings from the study will help to identify important linkages and effective strategies for communication/information and policy implementation.

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Parent involvement is widely accepted as being associated with children’s improved educational outcomes. However, the role of early school-based parent involvement is still being established. This study investigated the mediating role of self-regulated learning behaviors in the relationship between early school-based parent involvement and children’s academic achievement, using data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (N = 2616). Family socioeconomic position, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status, language background, child gender and cognitive competence, were controlled, as well home and community based parent involvement activity in order to derive a more confident interpretation of the results. Structural equation modeling analyses showed that children’s self-regulated learning behaviors fully mediated the relationships between school-based parent involvement at Grade 1 and children’s reading achievement at Grade 3. Importantly, these relationships were evident for children across all socio-economic backgrounds. Although there was no direct relationship between parent involvement at Grade 1 and numeracy achievement at Grade 3, parent involvement was indirectly associated with higher children’s numeracy achievement through children’s self-regulation of learning behaviors, though this relationship was stronger for children from middle and higher socio-economic backgrounds. Implications for policy and practice are discussed, and further research recommended.

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Background Several prospective studies have suggested that gait and plantar pressure abnormalities secondary to diabetic peripheral neuropathy contributes to foot ulceration. There are many different methods by which gait and plantar pressures are assessed and currently there is no agreed standardised approach. This study aimed to describe the methods and reproducibility of three-dimensional gait and plantar pressure assessments in a small subset of participants using pre-existing protocols. Methods Fourteen participants were conveniently sampled prior to a planned longitudinal study; four patients with diabetes and plantar foot ulcers, five patients with diabetes but no foot ulcers and five healthy controls. The repeatability of measuring key biomechanical data was assessed including the identification of 16 key anatomical landmarks, the measurement of seven leg dimensions, the processing of 22 three-dimensional gait parameters and the analysis of four different plantar pressures measures at 20 foot regions. Results The mean inter-observer differences were within the pre-defined acceptable level (<7 mm) for 100 % (16 of 16) of key anatomical landmarks measured for gait analysis. The intra-observer assessment concordance correlation coefficients were > 0.9 for 100 % (7 of 7) of leg dimensions. The coefficients of variations (CVs) were within the pre-defined acceptable level (<10 %) for 100 % (22 of 22) of gait parameters. The CVs were within the pre-defined acceptable level (<30 %) for 95 % (19 of 20) of the contact area measures, 85 % (17 of 20) of mean plantar pressures, 70 % (14 of 20) of pressure time integrals and 55 % (11 of 20) of maximum sensor plantar pressure measures. Conclusion Overall, the findings of this study suggest that important gait and plantar pressure measurements can be reliably acquired. Nearly all measures contributing to three-dimensional gait parameter assessments were within predefined acceptable limits. Most plantar pressure measurements were also within predefined acceptable limits; however, reproducibility was not as good for assessment of the maximum sensor pressure. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the reproducibility of several biomechanical methods in a heterogeneous cohort.

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Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) is an ultrasensitive technique for measuring the concentration of a single isotope. The electric and magnetic fields of an electrostatic accelerator system are used to filter out other isotopes from the ion beam. The high velocity means that molecules can be destroyed and removed from the measurement background. As a result, concentrations down to one atom in 10^16 atoms are measurable. This thesis describes the construction of the new AMS system in the Accelerator Laboratory of the University of Helsinki. The system is described in detail along with the relevant ion optics. System performance and some of the 14C measurements done with the system are described. In a second part of the thesis, a novel statistical model for the analysis of AMS data is presented. Bayesian methods are used in order to make the best use of the available information. In the new model, instrumental drift is modelled with a continuous first-order autoregressive process. This enables rigorous normalization to standards measured at different times. The Poisson statistical nature of a 14C measurement is also taken into account properly, so that uncertainty estimates are much more stable. It is shown that, overall, the new model improves both the accuracy and the precision of AMS measurements. In particular, the results can be improved for samples with very low 14C concentrations or measured only a few times.

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Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

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By using the bender and extender elements tests, together with measurements of the travel times of shear (S) and primary (P) waves, the variation of Poisson ratio (nu) was determined for dry sands with respect to changes in relative densities and effective confining pressures (sigma(3)). The tests were performed for three different ranges of particle sizes. The magnitude of the Poisson ratio decreases invariably with an increase in both the relative density and the effective confining pressure. The effect of the confining pressure on the Poisson ratio was found to become relatively more significant for fine-grained sand as compared with the coarse-grained sand. For a given material, at a particular value of sigma(3), the magnitude of the Poisson ratio decreases, almost in a linear fashion, with an increase in the value of maximum shear modulus (G(max)). The two widely used correlations in literature, providing the relationships among G(max), void ratio (e) and effective confining pressure (sigma(3)), applicable for angular granular materials, were found to compare reasonably well with the present experimental data for the fine- and medium-grained sands. However, for the coarse-grained sand, these correlations tend to overestimate the values of G(max).

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In many countries, the prevalence of smoking and smokers average cigarette consumption have decreased, with occasional smoking and daily light smoking (1-4 cigarettes per day, CPD) becoming more common. Despite these changes in smoking patterns, the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a disorder characterized by a progressive decline in lung function, continues to rise globally. Smoking is the most important factor causing COPD, however, not all smokers develop the disease. Genetic factors partly explain the inter-individual differences in lung function and susceptibility of some smokers to COPD. No earlier research on the genetic and environmental determinants of lung function or on the phenomenon of light smoking exists in the Finnish population. Further, the association between low-rate smoking patterns and COPD remains partly unknown. This thesis aimed to study the prevalence and consistency of light smoking longitudinally in the Finnish population, to assess the characteristics of light smokers, and to examine the risks of chronic bronchitis and COPD associated with changing smoking patterns over time. A further aim was to estimate longitudinally the proportions of genetic and environmental factors that explain the inter-individual variances in lung function. Data from the Older Finnish Twin Cohort, including same-sex twin pairs born in Finland before 1958, were used. Smoking patterns and chronic bronchitis symptoms were consistently assessed in surveys conducted in 1975, 1981, and 1990. National registry data on reimbursement eligibilities and medication purchases were used to define COPD. Lung function data were obtained from a subsample of the cohort, 217 female twin pairs, who attended spirometry in 2000 and 2003 as part of the Finnish Twin Study on Ageing. The genetic and environmental influences on lung function were estimated by using genetic modeling. This thesis found that light smokers are more often female, well-educated, and exhibit a healthier lifestyle than heavy smokers. At individual level, light smoking is rarely a constant pattern. Light smoking, reducing from heavier smoking to light smoking, and relapsing to light smoking after quitting, are among patterns associated with an increased risk of chronic bronchitis and COPD. Constant light smoking is associated with an increased use of inhaled anticholinergics, a medication for CODP. In addition to smoking, other environmental factors influence lung function in the older age. During a three-year follow-up, new environmental effects influencing spirometry values were observed, whereas the genes affecting lung function remained mostly the same. In conclusion, no safe level of daily smoking exists with regard to pulmonary diseases. Even daily light smoking in middle-age is associated with increased respiratory morbidity later in life. Smoking reduction does not decrease the risk of COPD, and should not be recommended as an alternative to quitting smoking. In elderly people, attention should also be drawn to other factors that can prevent poor lung function.