Economic growth and real volatility: The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

Using a new database of quarterly data for 21 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean for the 1990-2012 period, this document shows that the duration of GDP contractions appears to be a rather robust indicator of real volatility, and is negatively correlated with long run growth in Latin America and the Caribbean during the period. These results are consistent with different theoretical hypotheses in the literature that relate the duration of GDP contractions with economic growth. They also show that the relationship between real volatility and economic growth in the region is robust to the inclusion of external variables that control for external uncertainty and volatility.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

Análise da dinâmica de preços entre os mercados futuros de grão, farelo e óleo de soja na China e Estados Unidos

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

A taxa de câmbio do Brasil é válida no longo prazo?

The objective of this study was to test the validity of the real exchange rate in the long run. For that five tests were performed based on equation, which relates to real exchange rate, international trade, domestic income. The main difference is that the tests when we are working with quarterly data, the parameters are significantly different from zero – i.e., the variables real exchange rate, international trade, domestic income and net exports on long term relationship – and, moreover, the signs are as expected. This implies that it is possible to increase exports with currency devaluation. Thus, based on data and tests that work we conclude that the exchange rate is an important instrument of trade policy, given that devaluations are valid even in the long term.

Clinical predictors of long-term outcome in obsessive-compulsive disorder

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate demographic and clinical factors associated with the long-term outcome of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods: A hundred ninety-six previously untreated patients with DSM-IV criteria OCD completed a 12-week randomized open trial of group cognitive-behavioral therapy (GCBT) or fluoxetine, followed by 21 months of individualized, uncontrolled treatment, according to international guidelines for OCD treatment. OCD severity was assessed using the Yale–Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) at different times over the follow-up period. Demographics and several clinical variables were assessed at baseline. Results: Fifty percent of subjects improved at least 35% from baseline, and 21.3% responded fully (final Y-BOCS score < or = 8). Worse prognosis was associated with earlier age at onset of OCD (P = 0.045), longer duration of illness (P = 0.001) presence of at least one comorbid psychiatric disorder (P = 0.001), comorbidity with a mood disorder (P = 0.002), higher baseline Beck-Depression scores (P = 0.011), positive family history of tics (P = 0.008), and positive family history of anxiety disorders (P = 0.008). Type of initial treatment was not associated with long-term outcome. After correction for multiple testing, the presence of at least one comorbid disorder, the presence of a depressive disorder, and duration of OCD remained significant. Conclusions: Patients under cognitive-behavioral or pharmacological treatment improved continuously in the long run, regardless of initial treatment modality or degree of early response, suggesting that OCD patients benefit from continuous treatment. Psychiatric comorbidity, especially depressive disorders, may impair the long-term outcome of OCD patients.

Forstentomologische Untersuchungen an Eichen unterschiedlicher Vitalität des Pfälzerwaldes

Seit Beginn der Waldzustandserhebungen im Jahr 1984 verschlechterte sich der Zustand der Eiche sowohl auf Bundesebene als auch im Land Rheinland-Pfalz deutlich. 1998 konnten nur noch 5 % der rheinland-pfälzischen Eichen in die Kategorie "ohne Schadensmerkmale" eingestuft werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund ergab sich die Notwendigkeit, die biotischen Stress- und Schadfaktoren näher zu untersuchen. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit lag der Fokus auf den holzbewohnenden Käfern von Traubeneichen (Quercus petraea) aus dem Pfälzerwald. Zu diesem Zweck wurden für die erste Probenserie Untersuchungsbäume aus den Vitalitätsstufen 'vital', 'geschädigt', 'ein Jahr tot' und 'zwei Jahre tot' ausgewählt und in die drei Straten Stammfuß, Kronenansatz und Derbholz unterteilt. In der zweiten Probenserie kamen keine 'vitalen' Stämme mehr zum Einsatz. Die einzelnen Proben wurden in Fasseklektoren überführt, in denen die xylobionten Käfer ihre Entwicklung beenden und schlüpfen konnten. Die erste Probenserie wurde im Herbst 1998 entnommen, die zweite Serie im darauffolgenden Herbst. Zusätzlich zu diesen Laboruntersuchungen wurden Freilanduntersuchungen mit Stammeklektoren an vier stehenden Eichen im Wald durchgeführt. Die gefangenen Tiere wurden nach Ordnungen sortiert und gezählt, die Käfer nach Möglichkeit bis zur Art bestimmt. Die Ergebnisse der ersten und zweiten Serie wurden in Abundanzen (Ind./m² Rindenoberfläche) umgerechnet, um einen Vergleich der Proben untereinander möglich zu machen. Insgesamt wurden aus den Fasseklektoren beider Serien Käfer mit einer Abundanz von 36.990 Ind./m² ausgewertet. In den Fallen der Stammeklektoren wurden insgesamt 1.487 Käfer gefunden. Den weitaus größten Teil der Käfer der Fasseklektoren stellen die Borkenkäfer (Scolytidae). Dieses Ergebnis schlägt sich auch in der Betrachtung der Dominanz der einzelnen Arten nieder. In nahezu allen Fällen gehörten die Hauptarten in die Familie Scolytidae. Der mit den Absterbeerscheinungen der Eichen in Verbindung gebrachte Prachtkäfer Agrilus biguttatus (Buprestidae) trat in deutlich geringeren Abundanzen auf. Aufgrund seiner Fraßtätigkeit (Ringelung der Larven im Kambialbereich der Bäume) gehört er aber zu den potentiell stark schädigenden Käfern. Neben A. biguttatus sind auch A. sulcicollis und die gefundenen Borkenkäfer in der Lage, vorgeschädigte und geschwächte Eichen zu befallen und noch weiter zu schwächen. Aus waldhygienischen Gründen sollten deshalb regelmäßige Kontrollen durchgeführt werden. Bei erkennbarem Befall sollten die betroffenen Bäume gefällt und aus dem Bestand entfernt werden. Langfristig können die Vermeidung von nicht-standortgerechtem Eichenanbau und das Anlegen von naturnahen Mischbeständen zu den waldbaulichen Maßnahmen gerechnet werden, die eine Reduktion des Infektionsrisikos zur Folge haben. Die 'ein Jahr toten' Bäume wiesen die mit Abstand höchste Abundanz an Lebendholzbesiedlern auf. Bäume, die bereits ein Jahr länger tot im Bestand standen, wurden von deutlich weniger Lebendholzbesiedlern befallen, d.h. von 'zwei Jahre toten' Bäumen ging ein potentiell geringerer Infektionsdruck aus als von 'ein Jahr toten' Eichen. Im Laufe des Verrottungsprozesses verringert sich diese Gefahr noch weiter, da die Holzfeuchte weiter abnimmt und die Lebendholzbesiedler keine Nahrungsgrundlage mehr vorfinden. Besonders die Gefahr des Neubefalls durch Agrilus von mindestens zweijährig toten Bäumen besteht kaum, weil zumindest die Larven der ersten Stadien des Prachtkäfers auf lebendes Gewebe angewiesen sind.

Teaching Tolerance? Associational Diversity and Tolerance Formation

Tolerance is a basic democratic principle that helps civil societies cope with rising levels of diversity stemming from increased immigration and individualism. During the last decade the question of how tolerance may be fostered has dominated debates in public and academic spheres. In this article, a closer look is taken at how associational diversity relates to the formation of tolerance and the importance of associations as schools of tolerance are evaluated. The main theoretical argument follows contact theory, wherein regular and enduring contact in diverse settings reduces prejudice and thereby increases an individual’s tolerance toward objectionable groups. The empirical findings reveal a positive relationship between associational diversity and tolerance. It is observed, however, that the duration of active engagement in associations reduces this positive relation between diversity and tolerance. Accordingly, these results challenge the notion that associations serve as schools of tolerance in the long run.

Do avoidance goals always impair performance? How neuroticism moderates the short- and long-term effects of avoidance versus approach goals on performance

Previous research agrees that approach goals have positive effects whereas avoidance goals have negative effects on performance. By contrast, the present chapter looks at the conditions under which even avoidance goals may have positive effects on performance. We will first review the previous research that supports the positive consequences of avoidance goals. Then we will argue that the positive and negative consequences of approach and avoidance goals on performance depend on an individual‘s neuroticism level and the time frame of their goal striving. Because neuroticism is positively related to avoidance goals, we assume that individuals with high levels of neuroticism may derive some benefits from avoidance goals. We have specified this assumption by hypothesizing that the fit between an individual‘s level of neuroticism and their avoidance goals leads to favorable consequences in the short term – but to negative outcomes in the long run. A short-term, experimental study with employees and a long-term correlative field study with undergraduate students were conducted to test whether neuroticism moderates the short- and long-term effects of avoidance versus approach goals on performance. Experimental study 1 showed that individuals with a high level of neuroticism performed best in the short term when they were assigned to avoidance goals, whereas individuals with a low level of neuroticism performed best when pursuing approach goals. However, study 2 indicated that in the long run individuals with a high level of neuroticism performed worse when striving for avoidance goals, whereas individuals with a low level of neuroticism were not impaired at all by avoidance goals. In summary, the pattern of results supports the hypothesis that a fit between a high level of neuroticism and avoidance goals has positive consequences in the short term, but leads to negative outcomes in the long run. We strongly encourage further research to investigate short- and long-term effects of approach and avoidance goals on performance in conjunction with an individual‘s personality, which may moderate these effects.

Trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage

While the negative effects of divorce on well-being are well documented in research literature, the large individual differences in psychological adaptation over time are still not well understood. This is especially the case for marital breakup after long-term marriage, which is still a neglected research topic. Against this background, the aim of the present contribution is to shed light on the various trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term relationship. Data stem from a longitudinal survey study, which is part of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research ‘LIVES – Overcoming vulnerability: life course perspectives’ (funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation). Our analyses are based on results of an exploratory latent profile analysis performed at the first assessment in 2012 among 308 divorced participants aged 45 – 65 years, who divorced after an average of 25 years of marriage (Perrig-Chiello, Hutchison, & Morselli, 2014). Five different groups regarding psychological adaptation to marital breakup (i.e. life satisfaction, depression, hopelessness, subjective health, and mourning) were identified. They were composed of two larger groups of individuals that adapted quite well or very well (“average copers”, n=151 and “resilients”, n=90) and of three smaller groups with major difficulties to adjust to the new situation (“vulnerables”, n= 18; “malcontens”, n= 37 and “resigned ones”, n=12). Clusters differed statistically significant regarding personality variables, time since separation, current relationship status, and financial situation. In the present contribution, we want to investigate the course of adaptation of the five classes two years later by using latent transition analysis. Furthermore, we aim to examine which variables in terms of personality, relationship status, variables of the context of the separation and socio-demographic variables are crucial for change or stability in levels of adaptation in the different classes. The evaluation of the trajectories of adaptation to this critical life event and the identification of variables that enhance the adaptation over time is essential for developing more differentiated measures in counselling as well as intervention techniques in clinical and social services.

Which School Attributes Matter? The Influence of School District Performance and Demographic Composition on Property Values

Increasing levels of segregation in American schools raises the question: do home buyers pay for test scores or demographic composition? This paper uses Connecticut panel data spanning eleven years from 1994 to 2004 to ascertain the relationship between property values and explanatory variables that include school district performance and demographic attributes, such as racial and ethnic composition of the student body. Town and census tract fixed effects are included to control for neighborhood unobservables. The effect of changes in school district attributes is also examined over a decade long time frame in order to focus on the effect of long run changes, which are more likely to be capitalized into prices. The study finds strong evidence that increases in percent Hispanic has a negative effect on housing prices in Connecticut, but mixed evidence concerning the impact of test scores on property values. Evidence is also found to suggest that student test scores have increased in importance for explaining housing prices in recent years while the importance of percent Hispanic has declined. Finally, the study finds that estimates of property tax capitalization increase substantially when the analysis focuses on long run changes.

Countervailing Duties in the USA

This paper reveals the characteristics of the ITC's decisions on countervailing duties, which have seldom been studied. The empirical evidences based on time series data show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between affirmative countervailing decisions and macroeconomic variables such as economic growth rates and import penetration ratios. The error correction models show that there is a unidirectional causality from affirmative countervailing decisions to slower economic growth.

Stagnation and Change in Islamic History

There appear to be two seemingly contradictory images of economic change in the Islamic World and mixed evidence on whether Islamic societies have been open or conservative against modern ideas, technological advancements, and legal developments. Whereas a conservative attitude has been dominant in some societies and time periods, Muslims were at the forefront of scientific, technological, and legal developments in others. Rather than rely on ad hoc assumptions about the attitudes and characteristics of societies or the inherent qualities of new developments, this paper explains attitudes towards change by studying the political economy of the relationship between the rulers and the legal community. I extend recent theories of endogenous institutional change to develop a framework based on how rulers and legal community reacted to new developments immediately and how their strategic interaction unleashed an endogenous process toward change in the long run. Using this framework, I identify conditions under which new ideas, technologies, and legal developments have resulted in immediate change in Islamic societies. I also examine the process of change in the long run, whether and how immediate outcomes could be sustained over time as strategic interaction continued repeatedly.

Identification of essential apoptotic genes in Drosophila

Apoptosis is a normal physiological cell suicide process which is essential for tissue homeostasis and normal development of metazoans. Misregulation of apoptosis is associated with many developmental defects and human diseases. The genes involved in the regulation and execution of apoptosis are highly conserved in humans and flies. Caspases are the executioners of cell suicide. Because of the unavailability of specific fly mutants, the developmental function of many caspase genes and genetic relationship between caspases and apoptotic components were undefined in Drosophila. We isolated several mutant alleles of the initiator caspase gene dronc, the effector casase drICE, and the Mediator component Cyclin C from the GMR-hid eyFLP/FRT screens which is designed to isolate mutants of recessive cell death genes in Drosophila melanogaster. Characterization of these mutants defined that they are essential for developmental cell death in Drosophila. dronc is required for most, but not all, cell death in Drosophila. drICE is required for apoptosis in many cells and it shares redundancy with another effector caspase gene, dcp-1, in a subset of cells in Drosophila. The genetic relationship between caspases and other apoptotic components was established through mutant analysis. We found that the pro-apoptotic protein Hid induces transcription of the initiator caspase gene dronc and the GMR-induced dronc transcripts are dependent on activated effector casapses, revealing a novel regulatory mechanism to promote caspase activity in Drosophila. Cyclin C and its kinase partner Cdk8 are required for prompt transcriptional induction of dronc in cell killing contexts. In short, we define the essential pro-apoptoic function of dronc, drICE, and Cyclin C in Drosophila and reveal a novel mechanism for regulation of dronc transcription. In the long run, these studies will help us decipher the complicated regulatory mechanism of cell death in humans. ^

Evolución de precios agrarios percibidos y pagados por el agricultor en España (2000-2009)

La evolución de los precios de los alimentos en años recientes se ha evaluado en numerosos estudios considerando: el análisis de los márgenes comerciales y la evolución temporal de los precios, si bien, la mayoría de ellos centrados en la óptica del consumidor. En este artículo se analizó la evolución temporal de los precios de los alimentos en España en el período 2000-2009 desde el punto de vista del agricultor y ganadero. Concretamente se utilizó información relacionada con los precios percibidos, precios pagados y el índice de precios de consumo (IPC), y con técnicas de análisis de series temporales se analizó la existencia de relaciones de equilibrio a largo plazo entre las series. Los resultados reflejan una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo entre: los precios percibidos y pagados; el IPC y los precios percibidos. Las principales conclusiones muestran que, a pesar de los desequilibrios existentes a corto plazo, a largo plazo los precios percibidos y pagados tienden a una situación de equilibrio. Un elemento importante en la evolución del IPC lo constituyen los precios percibidos por los productos en el sector primario. Sin embargo, la fijación de los precios de los insumos (pagados) en el sector primario; lejos de regirse en el largo plazo por la evolución del IPC; no muestra una relación significativa con dicho indicador.

An empirical analysis of the money demand function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s money demand function during the period of 1980 to 2007 using monthly data and the period of 1976 to 2007 using annual data. Cointegration test results indicated that when money supply is represented by M1 and M2, a cointegrating vector is detected among real money balances, interest rates, and output. In contrast, it was found that when money supply is represented by M3, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship in the　money demand function. Moreover, when the money demand function was estimated using　dynamic OLS, the sign onditions of the coefficients of output and interest rates were found to be　consistent with theoretical rationale, and statistical significance was confirmed when money supply was represented by either M1 or M2. Consequently, though India’s central bank presently uses M3 as an indicator of future price movements, it is thought appropriate to focus on M1 or M2, rather than M3, in managing monetary policy.