Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Comparison of inverse planning systems based on biological or physical factors: Pinnacle®, Corvus® and Monaco®

Radiotherapy (RT) is one of the most important approaches in the treatment of cancer and its performance can be improved in three different ways: through the optimization of the dose distribution, by the use of different irradiation techniques or through the study of radiobiological initiatives. The first is purely physical because is related to the physical dose distributiuon. The others are purely radiobiological because they increase the differential effect between the tumour and the health tissues. The Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) are used in RT to create dose distributions with the purpose to maximize the tumoral control and minimize the complications in the healthy tissues. The inverse planning uses dose optimization techniques that satisfy the criteria specified by the user, regarding the target and the organs at risk (OAR’s). The dose optimization is possible through the analysis of dose-volume histograms (DVH) and with the use of computed tomography, magnetic resonance and other digital image techniques.

Helical tomotherapy versus 3D conformal radiotherapy in dosimetric planning for patients with localized prostate cancer

Radiotherapy is one of the therapeutics selected for localized prostate cancer, in cases where the tumour is confined to the prostate, penetrates the prostatic capsule or has reached the seminal vesicles (T1 to T3 stages). The radiation therapy can be administered through various modalities, being historically used the 3D conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT). Other modality of radiation administration is the intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), that allows an increase of the total dose through modulation of the treatment beams, enabling a reduction in toxicity. One way to administer IMRT is through helical tomotherapy (TH). With this study we intent to analyze the advantages of helical tomotherapy when compared with 3DCRT, by evaluating the doses in the organs at risk (OAR) and planning target volumes (PTV).

A new MILP based approach for unit commitment in power production planning

This paper presents a complete, quadratic programming formulation of the standard thermal unit commitment problem in power generation planning, together with a novel iterative optimisation algorithm for its solution. The algorithm, based on a mixed-integer formulation of the problem, considers piecewise linear approximations of the quadratic fuel cost function that are dynamically updated in an iterative way, converging to the optimum; this avoids the requirement of resorting to quadratic programming, making the solution process much quicker. From extensive computational tests on a broad set of benchmark instances of this problem, the algorithm was found to be flexible and capable of easily incorporating different problem constraints. Indeed, it is able to tackle ramp constraints, which although very important in practice were rarely considered in previous publications. Most importantly, optimal solutions were obtained for several well-known benchmark instances, including instances of practical relevance, that are not yet known to have been solved to optimality. Computational experiments and their results showed that the method proposed is both simple and extremely effective.

Contribution of hospital effluents to the load of pharmaceuticals in urban wastewaters: Identification of ecologically relevant pharmaceuticals

The impact of effluent wastewaters from four different hospitals: a university (1456 beds), a general (350 beds), a pediatric (110 beds) and a maternity hospital (96 beds), which are conveyed to the same wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), was evaluated in the receiving urban wastewaters. The occurrence of 78 pharmaceuticals belonging to several therapeutic classes was assessed in hospital effluents and WWTP wastewaters (influent and effluent) as well as the contribution of each hospital in WWTP influent in terms of pharmaceutical load. Results indicate that pharmaceuticals are widespread pollutants in both hospital and urban wastewaters. The contribution of hospitals to the input of pharmaceuticals in urban wastewaters widely varies, according to their dimension. The estimated total mass loadings were 306 g d− 1 for the university hospital, 155 g d− 1 for the general one, 14 g d− 1 for the pediatric hospital and 1.5 g d− 1 for the maternity hospital, showing that the biggest hospitals have a greater contribution to the total mass load of pharmaceuticals. Furthermore, analysis of individual contributions of each therapeutic group showed that NSAIDs, analgesics and antibiotics are among the groups with the highest inputs. Removal efficiency can go from over 90% for pharmaceuticals like acetaminophen and ibuprofen to not removal for β-blockers and salbutamol. Total mass load of pharmaceuticals into receiving surface waters was estimated between 5 and 14 g/d/1000 inhabitants. Finally, the environmental risk posed by pharmaceuticals detected in hospital and WWTP effluents was assessed by means of hazard quotients toward different trophic levels (algae, daphnids and fish). Several pharmaceuticals present in the different matrices were identified as potentially hazardous to aquatic organisms, showing that especial attention should be paid to antibiotics such as ciprofloxacin, ofloxacin, sulfamethoxazole, azithromycin and clarithromycin, since their hazard quotients in WWTP effluent revealed that they could pose an ecotoxicological risk to algae.

Estudo e proposta de algoritmo para a minimização do corte de eólica no contexto de uma análise custo-benefício multicritério

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Previsão de curto prazo do consumo de energia elétrica

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica - Ramo de Energia

Distributed MPC for Thermal Comfort and Load Allocation with Energy Auction

This paper presents a distributed predictive control methodology for indoor thermal comfort that optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource using an integrated demand-side management approach that involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control objective for each subsystem (house or building) aims to minimize the energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature inside comfort limits. In a distributed coordinated multi-agent ecosystem, each house or building control agent achieves its objectives while sharing, among them, the available energy through the introduction of particular coupling constraints in their underlying optimization problem. Coordination is maintained by a daily green energy auction bring in a demand-side management approach. Also the implemented distributed MPC algorithm is described and validated with simulation studies.

Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

A multi-objective approach for the motion planning of redundant manipulators

Kinematic redundancy occurs when a manipulator possesses more degrees of freedom than those required to execute a given task. Several kinematic techniques for redundant manipulators control the gripper through the pseudo-inverse of the Jacobian, but lead to a kind of chaotic inner motion with unpredictable arm configurations. Such algorithms are not easy to adapt to optimization schemes and, moreover, often there are multiple optimization objectives that can conflict between them. Unlike single optimization, where one attempts to find the best solution, in multi-objective optimization there is no single solution that is optimum with respect to all indices. Therefore, trajectory planning of redundant robots remains an important area of research and more efficient optimization algorithms are needed. This paper presents a new technique to solve the inverse kinematics of redundant manipulators, using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. This scheme combines the closed-loop pseudo-inverse method with a multi-objective genetic algorithm to control the joint positions. Simulations for manipulators with three or four rotational joints, considering the optimization of two objectives in a workspace without and with obstacles are developed. The results reveal that it is possible to choose several solutions from the Pareto optimal front according to the importance of each individual objective.

A fractional approach for the motion planning of redundant and hyper-redundant manipulators

The trajectory planning of redundant robots through the pseudoinverse control leads to undesirable drift in the joint space. This paper presents a new technique to solve the inverse kinematics problem of redundant manipulators, which uses a fractional differential of order α to control the joint positions. Two performance measures are defined to examine the strength and weakness of the proposed method. The positional error index measures the precision of the manipulator's end-effector at the target position. The repeatability performance index is adopted to evaluate if the joint positions are repetitive when the manipulator execute repetitive trajectories in the operational workspace. Redundant and hyper-redundant planar manipulators reveal that it is possible to choose in a large range of possible values of α in order to get repetitive trajectories in the joint space.

Multi-criteria optimization manipulator trajectory planning

In the last twenty years genetic algorithms (GAs) were applied in a plethora of fields such as: control, system identification, robotics, planning and scheduling, image processing, and pattern and speech recognition (Bäck et al., 1997). In robotics the problems of trajectory planning, collision avoidance and manipulator structure design considering a single criteria has been solved using several techniques (Alander, 2003). Most engineering applications require the optimization of several criteria simultaneously. Often the problems are complex, include discrete and continuous variables and there is no prior knowledge about the search space. These kind of problems are very more complex, since they consider multiple design criteria simultaneously within the optimization procedure. This is known as a multi-criteria (or multiobjective) optimization, that has been addressed successfully through GAs (Deb, 2001). The overall aim of multi-criteria evolutionary algorithms is to achieve a set of non-dominated optimal solutions known as Pareto front. At the end of the optimization procedure, instead of a single optimal (or near optimal) solution, the decision maker can select a solution from the Pareto front. Some of the key issues in multi-criteria GAs are: i) the number of objectives, ii) to obtain a Pareto front as wide as possible and iii) to achieve a Pareto front uniformly spread. Indeed, multi-objective techniques using GAs have been increasing in relevance as a research area. In 1989, Goldberg suggested the use of a GA to solve multi-objective problems and since then other researchers have been developing new methods, such as the multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) (Fonseca & Fleming, 1995), the non-dominated sorted genetic algorithm (NSGA) (Deb, 2001), and the niched Pareto genetic algorithm (NPGA) (Horn et al., 1994), among several other variants (Coello, 1998). In this work the trajectory planning problem considers: i) robots with 2 and 3 degrees of freedom (dof ), ii) the inclusion of obstacles in the workspace and iii) up to five criteria that are used to qualify the evolving trajectory, namely the: joint traveling distance, joint velocity, end effector / Cartesian distance, end effector / Cartesian velocity and energy involved. These criteria are used to minimize the joint and end effector traveled distance, trajectory ripple and energy required by the manipulator to reach at destination point. Bearing this ideas in mind, the paper addresses the planning of robot trajectories, meaning the development of an algorithm to find a continuous motion that takes the manipulator from a given starting configuration up to a desired end position without colliding with any obstacle in the workspace. The chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the trajectory planning and several approaches proposed in the literature. Section 3 formulates the problem, namely the representation adopted to solve the trajectory planning and the objectives considered in the optimization. Section 4 studies the algorithm convergence. Section 5 studies a 2R manipulator (i.e., a robot with two rotational joints/links) when the optimization trajectory considers two and five objectives. Sections 6 and 7 show the results for the 3R redundant manipulator with five goals and for other complementary experiments are described, respectively. Finally, section 8 draws the main conclusions.

The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

Analyzing objects in images for estimating the delamination influence on load carrying capacity of composite laminates

The use of fiber reinforced plastics has increased in the last decades due to their unique properties. Advantages of their use are related with low weight, high strength and stiffness. Drilling of composite plates can be carried out in conventional machinery with some adaptations. However, the presence of typical defects like delamination can affect mechanical properties of produced parts. In this paper delamination influence in bearing stress of drilled hybrid carbon+glass/epoxy quasi-isotropic plates is studied by using image processing and analysis techniques. Results from bearing test show that damage minimization is an important mean to improve mechanical properties of the joint area of the plate. The appropriateness of the image processing and analysis techniques used in the measurement of the damaged area is demonstrated.