Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

La Yeguada volcanic complex, western Panama : an assessment of the geologic hazards using new 40AR/39Ar Ages

La Yeguada volcanic complex is one of three Quaternary volcanic centers in Panama, and is located on the southern slope of the Cordillera Central mountain range in western Panama, province of Veraguas. To assess potential geologic hazards, this study focused on the main dome complex near the village of La Laguna and also examined a cinder cone 10 km to the northwest next to the village of Media Luna. Based on newly obtained 40Ar/39Ar ages, the most recent eruption occurred approximately 32 000 years ago at the Media Luna cinder cone, while the youngest dated eruption at the main dome complex occurred 0.357 ± 0.019 Ma, producing the Castillo dome unit. Cerro Picacho is a separate dome located 1.5 km east of the main complex with a date of 4.47 ± 0.23 Ma, and the El Satro Pyroclastic Flow unit surrounds the northern portion of the volcanic complex and has an age of 11.26 ± 0.17 Ma. No Holocene (10 000 years ago to present) activity is recorded at the La Yeguada volcanic complex and therefore, it is unlikely to produce another eruption. The emergence of a new cinder cone is a possibility, but the associated hazards tend to be low and localized, and this does not pose a significant threat to the small communities scattered throughout the area. The main geologic hazard at the La Yeguada volcanic complex is from landslides coming off the many steep slopes.

Assessment of soil erosion vulnerability in rural communities in the vicinity of Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico : a physical and sociological approach

Soil erosion is a natural geological phenomenon resulting from removal and transportation of soil particles by water, wind, ice and gravity. As soil erosion may be affected from cultural factors as well. The physical and social phenomena of soil erosion are researched in six communities in the upper part of Rio Grijalva Basin in the vicinity of Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas, Mexico. For this study, the USDA RUSLE model was applied to estimate soil erosion rates in the six communities based on the available data. The RUSLE model is based on soil properties, topography, and land cover and management factors. These results showed that estimated soil erosion rates ranged from a high of 2,050 metric ton ha-1 yr-1 to a low of 100 metric ton ha-1 yr-1. A survey concerning knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) related to soil erosion was also conducted in all 236 households in the six communities. The main findings of the KAP survey were: 69% of respondents did not know what soil erosion was, while over 40% of the population perceived that hurricanes are the biggest factors that cause soil erosion, and about 20 % of the interviewees said that the landslides are the consequences of the soil erosion. People in communities did not perceive cultural factors as important in conservation efforts for reduce vulnerability to erosion; therefore, the results obtained are suggested to be useful for informing efforts to educate stakeholders.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

A STUDY OF A LANDSLIDE IN BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA

In 1988 a landslide occurred at a construction site in Birmingham, Alabama in which a portion of the construction site required excavating a rock slope with a group of apartments that were located at the top of the slope. During construction, two separate landslides occurred causing one and half of the apartment buildings to collapse downslope. The slope failure was investigated by two firms. One firm investigated the site conditions and the second firm investigated the design of the cut slope. The main concerns in the investigation were (1) the lack of consideration for the existing joint system, (2) using averaged the strength parameters, (3) the possibility of damaging the slope with blasting, and (4) the potential that there were underground mines at the site. The Rocscience program RocPlane was used to model the in situ conditions and the excavation. The model showed that the joint system’s pore water pressure was most likely the main factor in the failure.

Supporting, Regulating, and Provisioning Hydrological Services

The natural regulation of the water cycle by tropical montane forests is an important ecosystem service. Within this chapter we focus on water balance and regulation of the water cycle. Differences of rainfall-runoff generation across scales change from a near-surface event water driven system in pristine rainforest-covered micro-catchments to a more groundwater pre-event water dominated one on the mesoscale. The highly dynamic discharges are often correlated with total suspended sediment loads. However, we also observed total suspended sediment peaks at times of low flow, indicating a decoupling of erosion and stream transport and a triggering of landslides not directly related to hydrological processes. We also summarize likely future trends of water-related ecosystem services and expect an increase in human use and benefits of fresh water use whereas changes in water regulation and water purification services remain unchanged on a high level.

Impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas

INTRODUCTION Out-migration from mountain areas is leaving behind half families and elderly to deal with managing the land alongside daily life challenges. A potential reduction of labour force as well as expertise on cropping practices, maintenance of terraces and irrigation canals, slope stabilization, grazing, forest and other land management practices are further challenged by changing climate conditions and increased environmental threats. An understanding of the resilience of managed land resources in order to enhance adaptation to environmental and socio-economic variability, and evidence of the impact of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) on the mitigation of environmental threats have so far not sufficiently been tackled. The study presented here aims to find out how land management in mountains is being affected by migration in the context of natural hazards and climate change in two study sites, namely Quillacollo District of Bolivia and Panchase area of Western Nepal, and which measures are needed to increase resilience of livelihoods and land management practices. The presentation includes draft results from first field work periods in both sites. A context of high vulnerability According to UNISDR, vulnerability is defined as “the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard”.Hazards are another threat affecting people’s livelihood in mountainous area. They can be either natural or human induced. Landslides, debris flow and flood are affecting peopleGood land management can significantly reduce occurrence of hazards. In the opposite bad land management or land abandonment can lead to negative consequences on the land, and thus again increase vulnerability of people’s livelihoods. METHODS The study integrates bio-physical and socio-economic data through a case study as well as a mapping approach. From the social sciences, well-tested participatory qualitative methodologies, typically used in Vulnerability and Capacity Analyses, such as semi-structured interviews with so-called ‘key informants’, transect walks, participatory risk and social resource mapping are applied. The bio-physical analysis of the current environmental conditions determining hazards and structural vulnerability are obtained from remote sensing analysis, field work studies, and GIS analysis The assessment of the consequences of migration in the area of origin is linked with a mapping and appraisal of land management practices (www.wocat.net, Schwilch et al., 2011). The WOCAT mapping tool (WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008) allows capturing the major land management practices / technologies, their spread, effectiveness and impact within a selected area. Data drawn from a variety of sources are compiled and harmonised by a team of experts, consisting of land degradation and conservation specialists working in consultation with land users from various backgrounds. The specialists’ and land users’ knowledge is combined with existing datasets and documents (maps, GIS layers, high-resolution satellite images, etc.) in workshops that are designed to build consensus regarding the variables used to assess land degradation and SLM. This process is also referred to as participatory expert assessment or consensus mapping. The WOCAT mapping and SLM documentation methodologies are used together with participatory mapping and other socio-economic data collection (interviews, questionnaires, focus group discussions, expert consultation) to combine information about migration types and land management issues. GIS and other spatial visualization tools (e.g. Google maps) will help to represent and understand these links. FIRST RESULTS Nepal In Nepal, migration is a common strategy to improve the livelihoods. Migrants are mostly men and they migrate to other Asian countries, first to India and then to the Gulf countries. Only a few women are migrating abroad. Women migrate essentially to main Nepali cities when they can afford it. Remittances are used primarily for food and education; however they are hardly used for agricultural purposes. Besides traditional agriculture being maintained, only few new practices are emerging, such as vegetable farming or agroforestry. The land abandonment is a growing consequence of outmigration, resulting in the spreading of invasive species. However, most impacts of migration on land management are not yet clear. Moreover, education is a major concern for the respondents; they want their children having a better education and get better opportunities. Linked to this, unemployment is another major concern of the respondents, which in turn is “solved” through outmigration. Bolivia Migration is a common livelihood strategy in Bolivia. In the area of study, whole families are migrating downward to the cities of the valleys or to other departments of Bolivia, especially to Chapare (tropics) for the coca production and to Santa Cruz. Some young people are migrating abroad, mostly to Argentina. There are few remittances and if those are sent to the families in the mountain areas, then they are mainly used for agriculture purpose. The impacts of migration on land management practices are not clear although there are some important aspects to be underlined. The people who move downward are still using their land and coming back during part of the week to work on it. As a consequence of this multi-residency, there is a tendency to reduce land management work or to change the way the land is used. As in Nepal, education is a very important issue in this area. There is no secondary school, and only one community has a primary school. After the 6th grade students have therefore to go down into the valley towns to study. The lack of basic education is pushing more and more people to move down and to leave the mountains. CONCLUSIONS This study is on-going, more data have to be collected to clearly assess the impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas. The first results of the study allow us to present a few interesting findings. The two case studies are very different, however in both areas, young people are not staying anymore in the mountains and leave behind half families and elderly to manage the land. Additionally in both cases education is a major reason for moving out, even though the causes are not always the same. More specifically, in the case of Nepal, the use of remittances underlines the fact that investment in agriculture is not the first choice of a family. In the case of Bolivia, some interesting findings showed that people continue to work on their lands even if they move downward. The further steps of the study will help to explore these interesting issues in more detail. REFERENCES Schwilch G., Bestelmeyer B., Bunning S., Critchley W., Herrick J., Kellner K., Liniger H.P., Nachtergaele F., Ritsema C.J., Schuster B., Tabo R., van Lynden G., Winslow M. 2011. Experiences in Monitoring and Assessment of Sustainable Land Management. Land Degradation & Development 22 (2), 214-225. Doi 10.1002/ldr.1040 WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008. A Questionnaire for Mapping Land Degradation and Sustainable Land Management. Liniger H.P., van Lynden G., Nachtergaele F., Schwilch G. (eds), Centre for Development and Environment, Institute of Geography, University of Berne, Berne

The influence of bedrock orientation on the landscape evolution, surface morphology and denudation (10Be) at the Niesen, Switzerland

Landscape evolution and surface morphology in mountainous settings are a function of the relative importance between sediment transport processes acting on hillslopes and in channels, modulated by climate variables. The Niesen nappe in the Swiss Penninic Prealps presents a unique setting in which opposite facing flanks host basins underlain by identical lithologies, but contrasting litho-tectonic architectures where lithologies either dip parallel to the topographic slope or in the opposite direction (i.e. dip slope and non-dip slope). The north-western facing Diemtigen flank represents such a dip slope situation and is characterized by a gentle topography, low hillslope gradients, poorly dissected channels, and it hosts large landslides. In contrast, the south-eastern facing Frutigen side can be described as non-dip slope flank with deeply incised bedrock channels, high mean hillslope gradients and high relief topography. Results from morphometric analysis reveal that noticeable differences in morphometric parameters can be related to the contrasts in the relative importance of the internal hillslope-channel system between both valley flanks. While the contrasting dip-orientations of the underlying flysch bedrock has promoted hillslope and channelized processes to contrasting extents and particularly the occurrence of large landslides on the dip slope flank, the flank averaged beryllium-10 (10Be)-derived denudation rates are very similar and range between 0.20 and 0.26 mm yr−1. In addition, our denudation rates offer no direct relationship to basin's slope, area, steepness or concavity index, but reveal a positive correlation to mean basin elevation that we interpret as having been controlled by climatically driven factors such as frost-induced processes and orographic precipitation. Our findings illustrate that while the landscape properties in this part of the northern Alpine border can mainly be related to the tectonic architecture of the underlying bedrock, the denudation rates have a strong orographic control through elevation dependent mean annual temperature and precipitation.

Hillslope Processes in Temperate Environments

In this chapter, we discuss the factors controlling the mechanisms and rates of hillslope failure in temperate environments with a major focus on the Swiss Alps. We frame this presentation by defining Alpine hillslopes as either strength- or transport-limited hillslopes. We organize this discussion into individual sections that outline how hillslope processes are related to (1) the mechanical strength and bedding orientation of bedrock, (2) the competition between channelized and hillslope processes, (3) hillslope–channel coupling relationships, and (4) fluvial erosion rates. We find that hillslope angles depend on bedrock strength along nonincised channels, but are not related to this parameter in inner gorges. We also find that valley flanks host deep-seated landslides where the bedrock dips parallel to the topographic slope. In the opposite case, the valley sides are dissected by a network of bedrock channels bordered by strength-limited hillslopes. In this chapter, we illustrate that a high ratio between sediment discharge on hillslopes and in channels explains the formation of smooth landscapes with low channel densities and long response times. This chapter considers the formation of strength-limited hillslopes as a consequence of an upslope-directed coupling between channels and hillslopes. The chapter also discusses that soil-mantled hillslopes occur where fluvial incision rates are less than weathering rates of bedrock, which are limited to 0.1–0.3 mm yr−1. We finally present evidence for a decreasing trend of hillslope-derived sediment discharge during the Holocene, but predict an opposite trend in the nearest future as winters are warmer and wetter.

Geomorphic coupling between hillslopes and channels in the Swiss Alps

The coupling relationships between hillslope and channel network are fundamental for the understanding of mountainous landscapes' evolution. Here, we applied dendrogeomorphic methods to identify the hillslope–channel relationship and the sediment transfer dynamics within an alpine catchment, at the highest possible resolution. The Schimbrig catchment is located in the central Swiss Alps and can be divided into two distinct geomorphic sectors. To the east, the Schimbrig earth flow is the largest sediment source of the basin, while to the west, the Rossloch channel network is affected by numerous shallow landslides responsible for the supply of sediment from hillslopes to channels. To understand the connectivity between hillslopes and channels and between sources and sink, trees were sampled along the main Rossloch stream, on the Schimbrig earth flow and on the Rossloch depositional area. Geomorphic observations and dendrogeomophic results indicate different mechanisms of sediment production, transfer and deposition between upper and lower segments of the channel network. In the source areas (upper part of the Rossloch channel system), sediment is delivered to the channel network through slow movements of the ground, typical of earth flow, shallow landslides and soil creep. Contrariwise, in the depositional area (lower part of the channel network), the mechanisms of sediment transfer are mainly due to torrential activity, floods and debris flows. Tree analysis allowed the reconstruction of periods of high activity during the last century for the entire catchment. The collected dataset presents a very high temporal resolution but we encountered some limitations in establishing the source-to-sink connectivity at the catchment-wide scale. Despite these uncertainties, for decennial timescales the results suggest a direct coupling between hillslopes and neighbouring channels in the Rossloch channel network, and a de-coupling between sediment sources and sink farther downstream, with connections possible only during extraordinary events.

Index-Oriented Methodologies for Landslide Consequence Analysis: An Application to a Mountain Community in the French Alps

Consequence analysis is a key aspect of anchoring assessment of landslide impacts to present and long-term development planning. Although several approaches have been developed over the last decade, some of them are difficult to apply in practice, mainly because of the lack of valuable data on historical damages or on damage functions. In this paper, two possible consequence indicators based on a combination of descriptors of the exposure of the elements at risk are proposed in order to map the potential impacts of landslides and highlight the most vulnerable areas. The first index maps the physical vulnerability due to landslide; the second index maps both direct damage (physical, structural, functional) and indirect damage (socio-economic impacts) of landslide hazards. The indexes have been computed for the 200 km2 area of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), and their potential applications are discussed.

Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index

The causes of a greening trend detected in the Arctic using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still poorly understood. Changes in NDVI are a result of multiple ecological and social factors that affect tundra net primary productivity. Here we use a 25 year time series of AVHRR-derived NDVI data (AVHRR: advanced very high resolution radiometer), climate analysis, a global geographic information database and ground-based studies to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. We assess the effects of climate change, gas-field development, reindeer grazing and permafrost degradation. In contrast to the case for Arctic North America, there has not been a significant trend in summer temperature or NDVI, and much of the pattern of NDVI in this region is due to disturbances. There has been a 37% change in early-summer coastal sea-ice concentration, a 4% increase in summer land temperatures and a 7% change in the average time-integrated NDVI over the length of the satellite observations. Gas-field infrastructure is not currently extensive enough to affect regional NDVI patterns. The effect of reindeer is difficult to quantitatively assess because of the lack of control areas where reindeer are excluded. Many of the greenest landscapes on the Yamal are associated with landslides and drainage networks that have resulted from ongoing rapid permafrost degradation. A warming climate and enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing. We present a diagram that summarizes the social and ecological factors that influence Arctic NDVI. The NDVI should be viewed as a powerful monitoring tool that integrates the cumulative effect of a multitude of factors affecting Arctic land-cover change.

Bedrock bedding, landsliding and erosional budgets in the Central European Alps

We explore the controls of the litho-tectonic architecture on the erosional flux in the 370-km2 Glogn basin (European Alps). In this basin, the bedding and schistosity of the bedrock dip parallel to the topographic slope on the NW valley flank, leading to a non-dip slope situation on the opposite SE valley side. While the dip slope condition has promoted the occurrence of landslides (e.g. the c. 30-km2 deep-seated Lumnezia landslide), the opposite non-dip slope side of the valley hosts >100-m-deeply incised tributary streams. 10Be concentrations of stream sediments yield catchment-averaged denudation rates that vary between 0.27 ± 0.03 and 2.19 ± 0.37 mm a−1, while the spatially averaged denudation rate of the entire basin is 1.99 ± 0.34 mm a−1. Our 10Be-based approach reveals that the Lumnezia landslide front contributes c. 30–65% of the entire sediment budget, although it covers <5% of the Glogn basin. This suggests a primary control of the bedrock bedding on erosion rates and processes.