Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Size matters: plasticity in metabolic scaling shows body-size may modulate responses to climate change

Variability in metabolic scaling in animals, the relationship between metabolic rate (R) and body mass (M), has been a source of debate and controversy for decades. R is proportional to M-b, the precise value of b much debated, but historically considered equal in all organisms. Recent metabolic theory, however, predicts b to vary among species with ecology and metabolic level, and may also vary within species under different abiotic conditions. Under climate change, most species will experience increased temperatures, and marine organisms will experience the additional stressor of decreased seawater pH ('ocean acidification'). Responses to these environmental changes are modulated by myriad species-specific factors. Body-size is a fundamental biological parameter, but its modulating role is relatively unexplored. Here, we show that changes to metabolic scaling reveal asymmetric responses to stressors across body-size ranges; b is systematically decreased under increasing temperature in three grazing molluscs, indicating smaller individuals were more responsive to warming. Larger individuals were, however, more responsive to reduced seawater pH in low temperatures. These alterations to the allometry of metabolism highlight abiotic control of metabolic scaling, and indicate that responses to climate warming and ocean acidification may be modulated by body-size.

Did the Millennium Development Goals Change Trends in Child Mortality?

There has been little assessment of the role the MDGs have had in progressing international development. There has been a 41 per cent reduction in the under-5 mortality rate worldwide from 1990 to 2011 and an acceleration in the rate of reduction since 2000. This paper explores why this has occurred and results for all developing countries indicate that it is not due to more healthcare or public health interventions but is driven by a coincidental burst of economic growth. Although the MDGs are considered to have played an important part in securing progress against poverty, hunger and disease there is very little evidence to back this viewpoint up. A thorough analysis of the successes and failures of the MDGs is therefore necessary before embarking on a new round of global goals.

Effect of monovalent cations on the kinetics of hypoxic conformational change of mitochondrial complex i

Mitochondrial complex I is a large, membrane-bound enzyme central to energy metabolism, and its dysfunction is implicated in cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases. An interesting feature of mammalian complex I is the so-called A/D transition, when the idle enzyme spontaneously converts from the active (A) to the de-active, dormant (D) form. The A/D transition plays an important role in tissue response to ischemia and rate of the conversion can be a crucial factor determining outcome of ischemia/reperfusion. Here, we describe the effects of alkali cations on the rate of the D-to-A transition to define whether A/D conversion may be regulated by sodium.At neutral pH (7–7.5) sodium resulted in a clear increase of rates of activation (D-to-A conversion) while other cations had minor effects. The stimulating effect of sodium in this pH range was not caused by an increase in ionic strength. EIPA, an inhibitor of Na+/H+antiporters, decreased the rate of D-to-A conversion and sodium partially eliminated this effect of EIPA. At higher pH (> 8.0), acceleration of the D-to-A conversion by sodium was abolished, and all tested cations decreased the rate of activation, probably due to the effect of ionic strength.The implications of this finding for the mechanism of complex I energy transduction and possible physiological importance of sodium stimulation of the D-to-A conversion at pathophysiological conditions in vivo are discussed.

Differential ecological impacts of an invader and a native under environmental change are revealed by comparative functional responses.

Predicting the ecological impacts of damaging invasive species under relevant environmental contexts is a major challenge, for which comparative functional responses (the relationship between resource availability and consumer uptake rate) have great potential. Here, the functional responses of Gammarus pulex, an ecologically damaging invader in freshwaters in Ireland and other islands, were compared with those of a native trophic equivalent Gammarus duebeni celticus. Experiments were conducted at two dissolved oxygen concentrations (80 and 50 % saturation), representative of anthropogenic water quality changes, using two larval prey, blackfly (Simuliidae spp.) and mayfly (Baetis rhodani). Overall, G. pulex had higher Type II functional responses and hence predatory impacts than G. d. celticus and the functional responses of both predators were reduced by lowered oxygen concentration. However, this reduction was of lower magnitude for the invader as compared to the native. Further, the invader functional response at low oxygen was comparable to that of the native at high oxygen. Attack rates of the two predators were similar, with low oxygen reducing these attack rates, but this effect occurred more strongly for blackfly than mayfly prey. Handling times were significantly lower for the invader compared with the native, and significantly higher at low oxygen, however, the effect of lowered oxygen on handling times was minimal for the invader and pronounced for the native. Maximum feeding rates were significantly greater for the invader compared with the native, and significantly reduced at low oxygen, with this effect again lesser for the invader as compared to the native. The greater functional responses of the invader corroborate with its impacts on recipient macroinvertebrate communities when it replaces the native. Further, our experiments predict that the impact of the invader will be less affected than the native under altered oxygen regimes driven by anthropogenic influences.

Aging in personal and social immunity: do immune traits senesce at the same rate?

How much should an individual invest in immunity as it grows older? Immunity is costly and its value is likely to change across an organism's lifespan. A limited number of studies have focused on how personal immune investment changes with age in insects, but we do not know how social immunity, immune responses that protect kin, changes across lifespan, or how resources are divided between these two arms of the immune response. In this study, both personal and social immune functions are considered in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus vespilloides. We show that personal immune function declines (phenoloxidase levels) or is maintained (defensin expression) across lifespan in nonbreeding beetles but is maintained (phenoloxidase levels) or even upregulated (defensin expression) in breeding individuals. In contrast, social immunity increases in breeding burying beetles up to middle age, before decreasing in old age. Social immunity is not affected by a wounding challenge across lifespan, whereas personal immunity, through PO, is upregulated following wounding to a similar extent across lifespan. Personal immune function may be prioritized in younger individuals in order to ensure survival until reproductive maturity. If not breeding, this may then drop off in later life as state declines. As burying beetles are ephemeral breeders, breeding opportunities in later life may be rare. When allowed to breed, beetles may therefore invest heavily in "staying alive" in order to complete what could potentially be their final reproductive opportunity. As parental care is important for the survival and growth of offspring in this genus, staying alive to provide care behaviors will clearly have fitness payoffs. This study shows that all immune traits do not senesce at the same rate. In fact, the patterns observed depend upon the immune traits measured and the breeding status of the individual.

Long-term changes in oxygen depletion in a small temperate lake: effects of climate change and eutrophication

1. We analysed 41 years of data (1968–2008) from Blelham Tarn, U.K., to determine the consequences of eutrophication and climate warming on hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO).
2. The establishment of thermal stratification was strongly related to the onset of DO depletion in the lower hypolimnion. As a result of a progressively earlier onset of stratification and later overturn, the duration of stratification increased by 38 ± 8 days over the 41 years.
3. The observed rate of volumetric hypolimnetic oxygen depletion (VHODobs) ranged from 0.131 to 0.252 g O2 m−3 per day and decreased significantly over the study period, despite the increase in the mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration in the growing season. The vertical transport of DO represented from 0 to 30% of VHODobs, while adjustments for interannual differences in hypolimnetic temperature were less important, ranging from −11 to 9% of VHODobs.
4. The mean wind speed during May made the strongest significant contribution to the variation in VHODobs. VHODobs adjusted for the vertical transport of DO and hypolimnetic temperature differences, VHODadj, was significantly related to the upper mixed layer Chl a concentration during spring.
5. Hypolimnetic anoxia (HA) ranged from 27 to 168 days per year and increased significantly over time, which undoubtedly had negative ecological consequences for the lake.
6. In similar small temperate lakes, the negative effects of eutrophication on hypolimnetic DO are likely to be exacerbated by changes in lake thermal structure brought about by a warming climate, which may undermine management efforts to alleviate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication.

Determination of the Change in Anthropogenic Carbon Content in the Kuroshio Extension over the past 20 years using the C* Method

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Establishing paleorecords in the galapagos using hydrogen isotope ratios as a proxy for climate change

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Resting metabolic rate and protein turnover in apparently healthy elderly Gambian men.

Body composition, resting energy expenditure (REE), and whole body protein metabolism were studied in 26 young and 28 elderly Gambian men matched for body mass index during the dry season in a rural village in The Gambia. REE was measured by indirect calorimetry (hood system) in the fasting state and after five successive meals. Rates of whole body nitrogen flux, protein synthesis, and protein breakdown were determined in the fed state from the level of isotopic enrichment of urinary ammonia over a period of 12 h after a single oral dose of [15N]glycine. Expressed in absolute value, REE was significantly lower in the elderly compared with the young group (3.21 +/- 0.07 vs. 4.04 +/- 0.07 kJ/min, P < 0.001) and when adjusted to body weight (3.29 +/- 0.05 vs. 3.96 +/- 0.05 kJ/min, P < 0.0001) and fat-free mass (FFM; 3.38 +/- 0.01 vs. 3.87 +/- 0.01 kJ/min, P < 0.0001). The rate of protein synthesis averaged 207 +/- 13 g protein/day in the elderly and 230 +/- 13 g protein/day in the young group, whereas protein breakdown averaged 184 +/- 13 g protein/day in the elderly and 203 +/- 13 g protein/day in the young group (nonsignificant). When values were adjusted for body weight or FFM, they did not reveal any difference between the two groups. It is concluded that the reduced REE adjusted for body composition observed in elderly Gambian men is not explained by a decrease in protein turnover.

Prevalence rate and reasons for refusals of influenza vaccine in elderly.

More knowledge on the reasons for refusal of the influenza vaccine in elderly patients is essential to target groups for additional information, and hence improve coverage rate. The objective of the present study was to describe precisely the true motives for refusal. All patients aged over 64 who attended the Medical Outpatient Clinic, University of Lausanne, or their private practitioner's office during the 1999 and 2000 vaccination periods were included. Each patient was informed on influenza and its complications, as well as on the need for vaccination, its efficacy and adverse events. The vaccination was then proposed. In case of refusal, the reasons were investigated with an open question. Out of 1398 patients, 148 (12%) refused the vaccination. The main reasons for refusal were the perception of being in good health (16%), of not being susceptible to influenza (15%), of not having had the influenza vaccine in the past (15%), of having had a bad experience either personally or a relative (15%), and the uselessness of the vaccine (10%). Seventeen percent gave miscellaneous reasons and 12% no reason at all for refusal. Little epidemiological knowledge and resistance to change appear to be the major obstacles for wide acceptance of the vaccine by the elderly.

A comparative study of the change in diatom inferred ph of a staircase of lakes in the Algoma District, Northern Ontario /

Four staircase lakes occupying a single watershed located in the Algoma District, north of Lake Superior were chosen for this study. I examined the subfossil diatom assemblage in the top twenty centimeters of the surface sediments in each of these four lakes in an attempt to reconstruct their respective past pH history. From these analyses it was possible to test the hypothesis that the rate of change of diatom inferred pH was not significantly different in lakes located one below the other in a single "staircase" within a single watershed system. My results indicated that the four Z lakes had been acid for at least the last century. The water color of the three upper Z lakes (Z1, Z2 and Z3) was brown (>30 Pt Co units). The bottom lake (Z4) was the only clear water lake in the system «5 Pt Co units). This bottom staircase lake had no muskeg development around its shoreline. The alkaliphilous diatoms in the Z watershed system were important in determining the diatom inferred pH of the four Z lakes. The centric diatoms were extremely rare in the clearwater bottom lake (Z4). The ecology of the Eupodiscales is perhaps important in the interpretation of sediment in the more acid environment. Lake Z4 was the only one that had a progressive as well as a significant decrease in its downcore diatom inferred pH since the early 1960's. This lead me to speculate that the humic substances present in the upper three brown water lakes (Z1, Z2 and Z3) were perhaps Important in buffering them against a further decrease in water pH even though they were located within an area which was sensitive to acid precipitation.

Pollen and grain size records in abyssal sediments of the northwest Pacific Ocean as proxies of Plio-Pleistocene climate change /

A distinctive period of global change occurred during the PUocene between the warm Miocene and subsequent Quaternary cooling. Samples from Ocean Drilling Project Site 11 79 (-5586 mbsl, 41°4'N, 159°57'E), Site 881 (-5765 mbsl, 47°6.133'N, 161°29.490'E) and Site 882 (-3255 mbsl, 50°22'N, 167°36'E) were studied to determine the magnitude and composition ofterrigenous flux to the western mid-latitude North Pacific and its relation to climate change in East Asia since the mid-Pliocene. Dust-sized particles (including pollen), sourced from the arid regions and loess plateaus in East Asia are entrained by prevailing westerly winds and transported to the midlatitude northwest North Pacific Ocean. This is recorded by peaks in the total concentration of pollen and spores, as well as the mean grain size of allochthonous and autochthonous silicate material in abyssal marine sediments. Aridification of the Asian interior due to the phased uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau created the modem East Asian Monsoon system dominated by a strengthening of the winter monsoon. The winter monsoon is further enhanced during glacials due to the expansion of desert and steppe environments at the expense ofwoodlands and forests recorded by the composition of palynological assemblages. The late Pliocene-Pleistocene glacials at ODP Sites 1 179, 881, and 882 are characterized by increases in grain size, magnetic susceptibility, pollen and spore concentrations around 3.5-3.3, 2.6-2.4, 1.7-1.6, and 0.9-0.7 Ma (ages based on magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic datums). The peaks during these times are relatively rich in pollen taxa derived primarily from steppe and boreal vegetation zones, recording cool, dry climates. The overall size increase of sediment and abundance of terrestrial palynomorphs record enhanced wind strength. The increase in magnitude of pollen and spore concentrations as well as grain size record global cooling and Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The peaks in grain size as well as pollen and spore abundance in marine sediments correlate with the mean grain size of loess in East Asia, consistent with the deflation of unarmoured surfaces during glacials. The transport of limiting nutrients to marine environments enhanced sea surface productivity and increased the rate of sediment accumulation.

Decreased motor unit firing rate in the potentiated tibialis anterior in humans

With repeated activity, force production, rate of force production, and relaxation time are impaired. These are characteristics ofa fatigued muscle (Vandenboom, 2004). However, brief bouts of near maximal to maximal activity results in the increased ability of the muscle to generate force, termed post activation potentiation (P AP)(V andervoort et aI., 1983). The purpose of the present study was to characterize motor unit firing rate (MUFR) in the unfatigued, potentiated tibialis anterior (TA). Using a quadrifilar needle electrode, MUFR was measured during a 5s 50% MVC in which the TA was either potentiated or unpotentiated; monopolar electrodes measured surface parameters. A lOs MVC was used to potentiate the muscle. Firing rate decreased significantly from 20.15±2.9Opps to 18.27±2.99pps, while mean power frequency decreased significantly from 60. 13±7.75 Hz to 53.62±8.56 Hz. No change in root mean square (RMS) was observed. Therefore, in the present study, MUFR decreases in response to a potentiated TA.