Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toward Optimal Design of Piezoelectric Transducers Based on Multifunctional and Smoothly Graded Hybrid Material Systems

This work explores the design of piezoelectric transducers based on functional material gradation, here named functionally graded piezoelectric transducer (FGPT). Depending on the applications, FGPTs must achieve several goals, which are essentially related to the transducer resonance frequency, vibration modes, and excitation strength at specific resonance frequencies. Several approaches can be used to achieve these goals; however, this work focuses on finding the optimal material gradation of FGPTs by means of topology optimization. Three objective functions are proposed: (i) to obtain the FGPT optimal material gradation for maximizing specified resonance frequencies; (ii) to design piezoelectric resonators, thus, the optimal material gradation is found for achieving desirable eigenvalues and eigenmodes; and (iii) to find the optimal material distribution of FGPTs, which maximizes specified excitation strength. To track the desirable vibration mode, a mode-tracking method utilizing the `modal assurance criterion` is applied. The continuous change of piezoelectric, dielectric, and elastic properties is achieved by using the graded finite element concept. The optimization algorithm is constructed based on sequential linear programming, and the concept of continuum approximation of material distribution. To illustrate the method, 2D FGPTs are designed for each objective function. In addition, the FGPT performance is compared with the non-FGPT one.

Macrosegregation of Impurities in Directionally Solidified Silicon

Directional solidification of molten metallurgical-grade Si was carried out in a vertical Bridgman furnace. The effects of changing the mold velocity from 5 to 110 mu m seconds(-1) on the macrosegregation of impurities during solidification were investigated. The macrostructures of the cylindrical Si ingots obtained in the experiments consist mostly of columnar grains parallel to the ingot axis. Because neither cells nor dendrites can be observed on ingot samples, the absence of precipitated particles and the fulfillment of the constitutional supercooling criterion suggest a planar solid-liquid interface for mold velocities a parts per thousand currency sign10 mu m seconds(-1). Concentration profiles of several impurities were measured along the ingots, showing that their bottom and middle are purer than the metallurgical Si from which they solidified. At the ingot top, however, impurities accumulated, indicating the typical normal macrosegregation. When the mold velocity decreases, the macrosegregation and ingot purity increase, changing abruptly for a velocity variation from 20 to 10 mu m seconds(-1). A mathematical model of solute transport during solidification shows that, for mold velocities a parts per thousand yen20 mu m seconds(-1), macrosegregation is caused mainly by diffusion in a stagnant liquid layer assumed at the solid-liquid interface, whereas for lower velocities, macrosegregation increases as a result of more intense convective solute transport.

Failure assessments of corroded pipelines with axial defects using stress-based criteria: Numerical studies and verification analyses

Conventional procedures used to assess the integrity of corroded piping systems with axial defects generally employ simplified failure criteria based upon a plastic collapse failure mechanism incorporating the tensile properties of the pipe material. These methods establish acceptance criteria for defects based on limited experimental data for low strength structural steels which do not necessarily address specific requirements for the high grade steels currently used. For these cases, failure assessments may be overly conservative or provide significant scatter in their predictions, which lead to unnecessary repair or replacement of in-service pipelines. Motivated by these observations, this study examines the applicability of a stress-based criterion based upon plastic instability analysis to predict the failure pressure of corroded pipelines with axial defects. A central focus is to gain additional insight into effects of defect geometry and material properties on the attainment of a local limit load to support the development of stress-based burst strength criteria. The work provides an extensive body of results which lend further support to adopt failure criteria for corroded pipelines based upon ligament instability analyses. A verification study conducted on burst testing of large-diameter pipe specimens with different defect length shows the effectiveness of a stress-based criterion using local ligament instability in burst pressure predictions, even though the adopted burst criterion exhibits a potential dependence on defect geometry and possibly on material`s strain hardening capacity. Overall, the results presented here suggests that use of stress-based criteria based upon plastic instability analysis of the defect ligament is a valid engineering tool for integrity assessments of pipelines with axial corroded defects. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical modeling of ductile crack extension in high pressure pipelines with longitudinal flaws

This study examines the applicability of a micromechanics approach based upon the computational cell methodology incorporating the Gurson-Tvergaard (GT) model and the CTOA criterion to describe ductile crack extension of longitudinal crack-like defects in high pressure pipeline steels. A central focus is to gain additional insight into the effectiveness and limitations of both approaches to describe crack growth response and to predict the burst pressure for the tested cracked pipes. A verification study conducted on burst testing of large-diameter, precracked pipe specimens with varying crack depth to thickness ratio (a/t) shows the potential predictive capability of the cell approach even though both the CT model and the CTOA criterion appear to depend on defect geometry. Overall, the results presented here lend additional support for further developments in the cell methodology as a valid engineering tool for integrity assessments of pipelines with axial defects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,

Estimating wave spectra from the motions of moored vessels: Experimental validation

The practicability of estimating directional wave spectra based on a vessel`s 1st order response has been recently addressed by several researchers. Different alternatives regarding statistical inference methods and possible drawbacks that could arise from their application have been extensively discussed, with an apparent preference for estimations based on Bayesian inference algorithms. Most of the results on this matter, however, rely exclusively on numerical simulations or at best on few and sparse full-scale measurements, comprising a questionable basis for validation purposes. This paper discusses several issues that have recently been debated regarding the advantages of Bayesian inference and different alternatives for its implementation. Among those are the definition of the best set of input motions, the number of parameters required for guaranteeing smoothness of the spectrum in frequency and direction and how to determine their optimum values. These subjects are addressed in the light of an extensive experimental campaign performed with a small-scale model of an FPSO platform (VLCC hull), which was conducted in an ocean basin in Brazil. Tests involved long and short crested seas with variable levels of directional spreading and also bimodal conditions. The calibration spectra measured in the tank by means of an array of wave probes configured the paradigm for estimations. Results showed that a wide range of sea conditions could be estimated with good precision, even those with somewhat low peak periods. Some possible drawbacks that have been pointed out in previous works concerning the viability of employing large vessels for such a task are then refuted. Also, it is shown that a second parameter for smoothing the spectrum in frequency may indeed increase the accuracy in some situations, although the criterion usually proposed for estimating the optimum values (ABIC) demands large computational effort and does not seem adequate for practical on-board systems, which require expeditious estimations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Class of Channels Resulting in Ill-Convergence for CMA in Decision Feedback Equalizers

This paper analyzes the convergence of the constant modulus algorithm (CMA) in a decision feedback equalizer using only a feedback filter. Several works had already observed that the CMA presented a better performance than decision directed algorithm in the adaptation of the decision feedback equalizer, but theoretical analysis always showed to be difficult specially due to the analytical difficulties presented by the constant modulus criterion. In this paper, we surmount such obstacle by using a recent result concerning the CM analysis, first obtained in a linear finite impulse response context with the objective of comparing its solutions to the ones obtained through the Wiener criterion. The theoretical analysis presented here confirms the robustness of the CMA when applied to the adaptation of the decision feedback equalizer and also defines a class of channels for which the algorithm will suffer from ill-convergence when initialized at the origin.

Discrete-time mean variance optimal control of linear systems with Markovian jumps and multiplicative noise

In this article, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noise under three kinds of performance criterions related to the final value of the expectation and variance of the output. In the first problem it is desired to minimise the final variance of the output subject to a restriction on its final expectation, in the second one it is desired to maximise the final expectation of the output subject to a restriction on its final variance, and in the third one it is considered a performance criterion composed by a linear combination of the final variance and expectation of the output of the system. We present explicit sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for these problems, generalising previous results in the literature. We conclude this article presenting a numerical example of an asset liabilities management model for pension funds with regime switching.

Generalized Coupled Algebraic Riccati Equations for Discrete-time Markov Jump with Multiplicative Noise Systems

In this paper we consider the existence of the maximal and mean square stabilizing solutions for a set of generalized coupled algebraic Riccati equations (GCARE for short) associated to the infinite-horizon stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time Markov jump with multiplicative noise linear systems. The weighting matrices of the state and control for the quadratic part are allowed to be indefinite. We present a sufficient condition, based only on some positive semi-definite and kernel restrictions on some matrices, under which there exists the maximal solution and a necessary and sufficient condition under which there exists the mean square stabilizing solution fir the GCARE. We also present a solution for the discounted and long run average cost problems when the performance criterion is assumed be composed by a linear combination of an indefinite quadratic part and a linear part in the state and control variables. The paper is concluded with a numerical example for pension fund with regime switching.

Some heuristic algorithms for total tardiness minimization in a flowshop with blocking

The flowshop scheduling problem with blocking in-process is addressed in this paper. In this environment, there are no buffers between successive machines: therefore intermediate queues of jobs waiting in the system for their next operations are not allowed. Heuristic approaches are proposed to minimize the total tardiness criterion. A constructive heuristic that explores specific characteristics of the problem is presented. Moreover, a GRASP-based heuristic is proposed and Coupled with a path relinking strategy to search for better outcomes. Computational tests are presented and the comparisons made with an adaptation of the NEH algorithm and with a branch-and-bound algorithm indicate that the new approaches are promising. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Definition of priority areas for forest conservation through the ordered weighted averaging method

The general objective of this study was to evaluate the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method, integrated to a geographic information systems (GIS), in the definition of priority areas for forest conservation in a Brazilian river basin, aiming at to increase the regional biodiversity. We demonstrated how one could obtain a range of alternatives by applying OWA, including the one obtained by the weighted linear combination method and, also the use of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to structure the decision problem and to assign the importance to each criterion. The criteria considered important to this study were: proximity to forest patches; proximity among forest patches with larger core area; proximity to surface water; distance from roads: distance from urban areas; and vulnerability to erosion. OWA requires two sets of criteria weights: the weights of relative criterion importance and the order weights. Thus, Participatory Technique was used to define the criteria set and the criterion importance (based in AHP). In order to obtain the second set of weights we considered the influence of each criterion, as well as the importance of each one, on this decision-making process. The sensitivity analysis indicated coherence among the criterion importance weights, the order weights, and the solution. According to this analysis, only the proximity to surface water criterion is not important to identify priority areas for forest conservation. Finally, we can highlight that the OWA method is flexible, easy to be implemented and, mainly, it facilitates a better understanding of the alternative land-use suitability patterns. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Evaluation of algorithms used to order markers on genetic maps

When building genetic maps, it is necessary to choose from several marker ordering algorithms and criteria, and the choice is not always simple. In this study, we evaluate the efficiency of algorithms try (TRY), seriation (SER), rapid chain delineation (RCD), recombination counting and ordering (RECORD) and unidirectional growth (UG), as well as the criteria PARF (product of adjacent recombination fractions), SARF (sum of adjacent recombination fractions), SALOD (sum of adjacent LOD scores) and LHMC (likelihood through hidden Markov chains), used with the RIPPLE algorithm for error verification, in the construction of genetic linkage maps. A linkage map of a hypothetical diploid and monoecious plant species was simulated containing one linkage group and 21 markers with fixed distance of 3 cM between them. In all, 700 F(2) populations were randomly simulated with and 400 individuals with different combinations of dominant and co-dominant markers, as well as 10 and 20% of missing data. The simulations showed that, in the presence of co-dominant markers only, any combination of algorithm and criteria may be used, even for a reduced population size. In the case of a smaller proportion of dominant markers, any of the algorithms and criteria (except SALOD) investigated may be used. In the presence of high proportions of dominant markers and smaller samples (around 100), the probability of repulsion linkage increases between them and, in this case, use of the algorithms TRY and SER associated to RIPPLE with criterion LHMC would provide better results. Heredity (2009) 103, 494-502; doi:10.1038/hdy.2009.96; published online 29 July 2009

Diversity of endophytic enterobacteria associated with different host plants

Fifty-three endophytic enterobacteria isolates from citrus, cocoa, eucalyptus, soybean, and sugar cane were evaluated for susceptibility to the antibiotics ampicillin and kanamycin, and cellulase production. Susceptibility was found on both tested antibiotics. However, in the case of ampicillin susceptibility changed according to the host plant, while all isolates were susceptible to kanamycin. Cellulase production also changed according to host plants. The diversity of these. isolates was estimated by employing BOX-PCR genomic fingerprints and 16S rDNA sequencing. In total, twenty-three distinct operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified by employing a criterion of 60% fingerprint similarity as a surrogate for an OTU. The 23 OTUs belong to the Pantoea and Enterobacter genera, while their high diversity could be an indication of paraphyletic classification. Isolates representing nine different OTUs belong to Pantoea agglomerans, P. ananatis, P, stewartii, Enterobacter sp., and E. homaechei. The results of this study suggest that plant species may select endophytic bacterial genotypes. It has also become apparent that a review of the Pantoea/Enterobacter genera may be necessary.

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

A total of 152,145 weekly test-day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows distributed in 93 herds in southeastern Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were classified into 44 weekly classes of DIM. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-week of test-day. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and fixed effects of contemporary group and age of cow at calving as covariable, linear and quadratic effects. Mean trends were modeled by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of DIM. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were estimated by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were modeled using third to seventh-order variance functions or a step function with 1, 6,13,17 and 44 variance classes. Results from Akaike`s and Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion suggested that a model considering a 7th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effect, a 12th-order polynomial for permanent environment effect and a step function with 6 classes for residual variances, fitted best. However, a parsimonious model, with a 6th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effects and a 7th-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.