Deposits of the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River: Implications for the use of modern analogs in reconstructing channel dimensions in reservoir characterization

Estimation of the dimensions of fluvial geobodies from core data is a notoriously difficult problem in reservoir modeling. To try and improve such estimates and, hence, reduce uncertainty in geomodels, data on dunes, unit bars, cross-bar channels, and compound bars and their associated deposits are presented herein from the sand-bed braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. These data are used to test models that relate the scale of the formative bed forms to the dimensions of the preserved deposits and, therefore, provide an insight as to how such deposits may be preserved over geologic time. The preservation of bed-form geometry is quantified by comparing the Alluvial architecture above and below the maximum erosion depth of the modem channel deposits. This comparison shows that there is no significant difference in the mean set thickness of dune cross-strata above and below the basal erosion surface of the contemporary channel, thus suggesting that dimensional relationships between dune deposits and the formative bed-form dimensions are likely to be valid from both recent and older deposits. The data show that estimates of mean bankfull flow depth derived from dune, unit bar, and cross-bar channel deposits are all very similar. Thus, the use of all these metrics together can provide a useful check that all components and scales of the alluvial architecture have been identified correctly when building reservoir models. The data also highlight several practical issues with identifying and applying data relating to cross-strata. For example, the deposits of unit bars were found to be severely truncated in length and width, with only approximately 10% of the mean bar-form length remaining, and thus making identification in section difficult. For similar reasons, the deposits of compound bars were found to be especially difficult to recognize, and hence, estimates of channel depth based on this method may be problematic. Where only core data are available (i.e., no outcrop data exist), formative flow depths are suggested to be best reconstructed using cross-strata formed by dunes. However, theoretical relationships between the distribution of set thicknesses and formative dune height are found to result in slight overestimates of the latter and, hence, mean bankfull flow depths derived from these measurements. This article illustrates that the preservation of fluvial cross-strata and, thus, the paleohydraulic inferences that can be drawn from them, are a function of the ratio of the size and migration rate of bed forms and the time scale of aggradation and channel migration. These factors must thus be considered when deciding on appropriate length:thickness ratios for the purposes of object-based modeling in reservoir characterization.

Clima i condicions de conreu en els orígens de l'agricultura mediterrània: evidències a partir de la composició isotòpica del carboni en restes arqueobotàniques

Este trabajo ilustra cómo el análisis de la composición isotópica del carbono en restos arqueobotánicos aporta información sobre las condiciones climáticas y de cultivo en el pasado. Tras una introducción metodológica, se presentan distintos ejemplos que utilizan semillas carbonizadas (trigo y cebada) y/o carbones de especies forestales (pino carrasco, encina, etc.), ambos tipos de restos recuperados en yacimientos de la cuenca mediterránea. Mientras la composición isotópica en cereales proporciona inferencias sobre la disponibilidad hídrica de los cultivos, el análisis de carbones ayuda a cuantificar la precipitación. La combinación de ambas fuentes permite hipotetizar sobre la implementación de prácticas agronómicas específicas encaminadas a incrementar la disponibilidad hídrica de los cultivos en el pasado.

The interplay of spatial and climatic landscapes in the genetic distribution of a South American parrot

AimOur aim was to understand the interplay of heterogeneous climatic and spatial landscapes in shaping the distribution of nuclear microsatellite variation in burrowing parrots, Cyanoliseus patagonus. Given the marked phenotypic differences between populations of burrowing parrots we hypothesized an important role of geographical as well climatic heterogeneity in the population structure of this species. LocationSouthern South America. MethodsWe applied a landscape genetics approach to investigate the explicit patterns of genetic spatial autocorrelation based on both geography and climate using spatial principal component analysis (sPCA). This necessitated a novel statistical estimation of the species climatic landscape, considering temperature- and precipitation-based variables separately to evaluate their weight in shaping the distribution of genetic variation in our model system. ResultsGeographical and climatic heterogeneity successfully explained molecular variance in burrowing parrots. sPCA divided the species distribution into two main areas, Patagonia and the pre-Andes, which were connected by an area of geographical and climatic transition. Moreover, sPCA revealed cryptic and conservation-relevant genetic structure: the pre-Andean populations and the transition localities were each divided into two groups, each management units for conservation. Main conclusionssPCA, a method originally developed for spatial genetics, allowed us to unravel the genetic structure related to spatial and climatic landscapes and to visualize these patterns in landscape space. These novel climatic inferences underscore the importance of our modified sPCA approach in revealing how climatic variables can drive cryptic patterns of genetic structure, making the approach potentially useful in the study of any species distributed over a climatically heterogeneous landscape.

Testing a new multigroup inference approach to reconstructing past environmental conditions

A new, quantitative, inference model for environmental reconstruction (transfer function), based for the first time on the simultaneous analysis of multigroup species, has been developed. Quantitative reconstructions based on palaeoecological transfer functions provide a powerful tool for addressing questions of environmental change in a wide range of environments, from oceans to mountain lakes, and over a range of timescales, from decades to millions of years. Much progress has been made in the development of inferences based on multiple proxies but usually these have been considered separately, and the different numeric reconstructions compared and reconciled post-hoc. This paper presents a new method to combine information from multiple biological groups at the reconstruction stage. The aim of the multigroup work was to test the potential of the new approach to making improved inferences of past environmental change by improving upon current reconstruction methodologies. The taxonomic groups analysed include diatoms, chironomids and chrysophyte cysts. We test the new methodology using two cold-environment training-sets, namely mountain lakes from the Pyrenees and the Alps. The use of multiple groups, as opposed to single groupings, was only found to increase the reconstruction skill slightly, as measured by the root mean square error of prediction (leave-one-out cross-validation), in the case of alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon and altitude (a surrogate for air-temperature), but not for pH or dissolved CO2. Reasons why the improvement was less than might have been anticipated are discussed. These can include the different life-forms, environmental responses and reaction times of the groups under study.

Populating ACT-R's Declarative Memory with Internet Statistics

Decision situations are often characterized by uncertainty: we do not know the values of the different options on all attributes and have to rely on information stored in our memory to decide. Several strategies have been proposed to describe how people make inferences based on knowledge used as cues. The present research shows how declarative memory of ACT-R models could be populated based on internet statistics. This will allow to simulate the performance of decision strategies operating on declarative knowledge based on occurrences and co-occurrences of objects and cues in the environment.

The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers) used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI) estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI) procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.

Does working memory training affect decision making ? : a neuroeconomic study

We all make decisions of varying levels of importance every day. Because making a decision implies that there are alternative choices to be considered, almost all decision involves some conflicts or dissatisfaction. Traditional economic models esteem that a person must weight the positive and negative outcomes of each option, and based on all these inferences, determines which option is the best for that particular situation. However, individuals rather act as irrational agents and tend to deviate from these rational choices. They somewhat evaluate the outcomes' subjective value, namely, when they face a risky choice leading to losses, people are inclined to have some preference for risk over certainty, while when facing a risky choice leading to gains, people often avoid to take risks and choose the most certain option. Yet, it is assumed that decision making is balanced between deliberative and emotional components. Distinct neural regions underpin these factors: the deliberative pathway that corresponds to executive functions, implies the activation of the prefrontal cortex, while the emotional pathway tends to activate the limbic system. These circuits appear to be altered in individuals with ADHD, and result, amongst others, in impaired decision making capacities. Their impulsive and inattentive behaviors are likely to be the cause of their irrational attitude towards risk taking. Still, a possible solution is to administrate these individuals a drug treatment, with the knowledge that it might have several side effects. However, an alternative treatment that relies on cognitive rehabilitation might be appropriate. This project was therefore aimed at investigate whether an intensive working memory training could have a spillover effect on decision making in adults with ADHD and in age-matched healthy controls. We designed a decision making task where the participants had to select an amount to gamble with the chance of 1/3 to win four times the chosen amount, while in the other cases they could loose their investment. Their performances were recorded using electroencephalography prior and after a one-month Dual N-Back training and the possible near and far transfer effects were investigated. Overall, we found that the performance during the gambling task was modulated by personality factors and by the importance of the symptoms at the pretest session. At posttest, we found that all individuals demonstrated an improvement on the Dual N-Back and on similar untrained dimensions. In addition, we discovered that not only the adults with ADHD showed a stable decrease of the symptomatology, as evaluated by the CAARS inventory, but this reduction was also detected in the control samples. In addition, Event-Related Potential (ERP) data are in favor of an change within prefrontal and parietal cortices. These results suggest that cognitive remediation can be effective in adults with ADHD, and in healthy controls. An important complement of this work would be the examination of the data in regard to the attentional networks, which could empower the fact that complex programs covering the remediation of several executive functions' dimensions is not required, a unique working memory training can be sufficient. -- Nous prenons tous chaque jour des décisions ayant des niveaux d'importance variables. Toutes les décisions ont une composante conflictuelle et d'insatisfaction, car prendre une décision implique qu'il y ait des choix alternatifs à considérer. Les modèles économiques traditionnels estiment qu'une personne doit peser les conséquences positives et négatives de chaque option et en se basant sur ces inférences, détermine quelle option est la meilleure dans une situation particulière. Cependant, les individus peuvent dévier de ces choix rationnels. Ils évaluent plutôt les valeur subjective des résultats, c'est-à-dire que lorsqu'ils sont face à un choix risqué pouvant les mener à des pertes, les gens ont tendance à avoir des préférences pour le risque à la place de la certitude, tandis que lorsqu'ils sont face à un choix risqué pouvant les conduire à un gain, ils évitent de prendre des risques et choisissent l'option la plus su^re. De nos jours, il est considéré que la prise de décision est balancée entre des composantes délibératives et émotionnelles. Ces facteurs sont sous-tendus par des régions neurales distinctes: le chemin délibératif, correspondant aux fonctions exécutives, implique l'activation du cortex préfrontal, tandis que le chemin émotionnel active le système limbique. Ces circuits semblent être dysfonctionnels chez les individus ayant un TDAH, et résulte, entre autres, en des capacités de prise de décision altérées. Leurs comportements impulsifs et inattentifs sont probablement la cause de ces attitudes irrationnelles face au risque. Cependant, une solution possible est de leur administrer un traitement médicamenteux, en prenant en compte les potentiels effets secondaires. Un traitement alternatif se reposant sur une réhabilitation cognitive pourrait être appropriée. Le but de ce projet est donc de déterminer si un entrainement intensif de la mémoire de travail peut avoir un effet sur la prise de décision chez des adultes ayant un TDAH et chez des contrôles sains du même âge. Nous avons conçu une tâche de prise de décision dans laquelle les participants devaient sélectionner un montant à jouer en ayant une chance sur trois de gagner quatre fois le montant choisi, alors que dans l'autre cas, ils pouvaient perdre leur investissement. Leurs performances ont été enregistrées en utilisant l'électroencéphalographie avant et après un entrainement d'un mois au Dual N-Back, et nous avons étudié les possibles effets de transfert. Dans l'ensemble, nous avons trouvé au pré-test que les performances au cours du jeu d'argent étaient modulées par les facteurs de personnalité, et par le degré des sympt^omes. Au post-test, nous avons non seulement trouvé que les adultes ayant un TDAH montraient une diminutions stable des symptômes, qui étaient évalués par le questionnaire du CAARS, mais que cette réduction était également perçue dans l'échantillon des contrôles. Les rsultats expérimentaux mesurés à l'aide de l'éléctroencéphalographie suggèrent un changement dans les cortex préfrontaux et pariétaux. Ces résultats suggèrent que la remédiation cognitive est efficace chez les adultes ayant un TDAH, mais produit aussi un effet chez les contrôles sains. Un complément important de ce travail pourrait examiner les données sur l'attention, qui pourraient renforcer l'idée qu'il n'est pas nécessaire d'utiliser des programmes complexes englobant la remédiation de plusieurs dimensions des fonctions exécutives, un simple entraiment de la mémoire de travail devrait suffire.

How differential management strategies affect Ips typographus L. dispersal

Bark beetle outbreaks have a devastating effect on economically important forests worldwide, thus requiring extensive application of management control strategies. The presence of unmanaged protected areas in close proximity to managed forests can instigate concerns that bark beetle infestations may spread from unmanaged into managed stands. We studied the impact of differential management of forest stands on the dispersal dynamics of the European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, making use of inferential population genetics on mitochondrial and nuclear genomes. Bayesian inferences of migration rates and a most parsimonious dispersal tree show that outgoing gene flow was consistently higher from managed to unmanaged areas. Reason for that is likely the thorough removal of potential breeding material in managed forests and thus the dispersal of the base stock beetles from these areas to unmanaged areas where breeding material is available. Our study suggests that the potential threat posed by unmanaged to managed forests in regard to I. typographus infestation needs to be carefully re-considered.

How to describe species richness patterns for bryophyte conservation?

A large amount of data for inconspicuous taxa is stored in natural history collections; however, this information is often neglected for biodiversity patterns studies. Here, we evaluate the performance of direct interpolation of museum collections data, equivalent to the traditional approach used in bryophyte conservation planning, and stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) to produce reliable reconstructions of species richness patterns, given that differences between these methods have been insufficiently evaluated for inconspicuous taxa. Our objective was to contrast if species distribution models produce better inferences of diversity richness than simply selecting areas with the higher species numbers. As model species, we selected Iberian species of the genus Grimmia (Bryophyta), and we used four well-collected areas to compare and validate the following models: 1) four Maxent richness models, each generated without the data from one of the four areas, and a reference model created using all of the data and 2) four richness models obtained through direct spatial interpolation, each generated without the data from one area, and a reference model created with all of the data. The correlations between the partial and reference Maxent models were higher in all cases (0.45 to 0.99), whereas the correlations between the spatial interpolation models were negative and weak (-0.3 to -0.06). Our results demonstrate for the first time that S-SDMs offer a useful tool for identifying detailed richness patterns for inconspicuous taxa such as bryophytes and improving incomplete distributions by assessing the potential richness of under-surveyed areas, filling major gaps in the available data. In addition, the proposed strategy would enhance the value of the vast number of specimens housed in biological collections.

Pro and con arguments in using alternative dialysis regimens in the frail and elderly patients.

In the last decade, an increasing number of patients over 75 years of age are starting renal replacement therapy. Frailty is highly prevalent in elderly patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the context of the increased prevalence of some ESRD-associated conditions: protein-energy wasting, inflammation, anaemia, acidosis or hormonal disturbances. There are currently no hard data to support guidance on the optimal duration of dialysis for frail/elderly ESRD patients. The current debate is not about starting dialysis or managing conservatory frail ESRD patients, but whether a more intensive regimen once dialysis is initiated (for whatever reasons and circumstances) would improve patients' outcome. The most important issue is that all studies performed with extended/alternative dialysis regimens do not specifically address this particular type of patients and therefore all the inferences are derived from the general ESRD population. Care planning should be responsive to end-of-life needs whatever the treatment modality. Care in this setting should focus on symptom control and quality of life rather than life extension. We conclude that, similar to the general dialysed population, extensive application of more intensive dialysis schedules is not based on solid evidence. However, after a thorough clinical evaluation, a limited period of a trial of intensive dialysis could be prescribed in more problematic patients.

Simple Heuristics in a Social Game

Simple Heuristics in a Social World invites readers to discover the simple heuristics that people use to navigate the complexities and surprises of environments populated with others. The social world is a terrain where humans and other animals compete with conspecifics for myriad resources, including food, mates, and status, and where rivals grant the decision maker little time for deep thought, protracted information search, or complex calculations. Yet, the social world also encompasses domains where social animals such as humans can learn from one another and can forge alliances with one another to boost their chances of success. According to the book's thesis, the undeniable complexity of the social world does not dictate cognitive complexity as many scholars of rationality argue. Rather, it entails circumstances that render optimization impossible or computationally arduous: intractability, the existence of incommensurable considerations, and competing goals. With optimization beyond reach, less can be more. That is, heuristics--simple strategies for making decisions when time is pressing and careful deliberation an unaffordable luxury--become indispensible mental tools. As accurate as or even more accurate than complex methods when used in the appropriate social environments, these heuristics are good descriptive models of how people make many decisions and inferences, but their impressive performance also poses a normative challenge for optimization models. In short, the Homo socialis may prove to be a Homo heuristicus whose intelligence reflects ecological rather than logical rationality.

Image processing of false identity documents for forensic intelligence

Forensic intelligence has recently gathered increasing attention as a potential expansion of forensic science that may contribute in a wider policing and security context. Whilst the new avenue is certainly promising, relatively few attempts to incorporate models, methods and techniques into practical projects are reported. This work reports a practical application of a generalised and transversal framework for developing forensic intelligence processes referred to here as the Transversal model adapted from previous work. Visual features present in the images of four datasets of false identity documents were systematically profiled and compared using image processing for the detection of a series of modus operandi (M.O.) actions. The nature of these series and their relation to the notion of common source was evaluated with respect to alternative known information and inferences drawn regarding respective crime systems. 439 documents seized by police and border guard authorities across 10 jurisdictions in Switzerland with known and unknown source level links formed the datasets for this study. Training sets were developed based on both known source level data, and visually supported relationships. Performance was evaluated through the use of intra-variability and inter-variability scores drawn from over 48,000 comparisons. The optimised method exhibited significant sensitivity combined with strong specificity and demonstrates its ability to support forensic intelligence efforts.

Distribution and population genetic variation of cryptic species of the Alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) in the Central Alps.

BACKGROUND: Many species contain evolutionarily distinct groups that are genetically highly differentiated but morphologically difficult to distinguish (i.e., cryptic species). The presence of cryptic species poses significant challenges for the accurate assessment of biodiversity and, if unrecognized, may lead to erroneous inferences in many fields of biological research and conservation. RESULTS: We tested for cryptic genetic variation within the broadly distributed alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus across several major European drainages in the central Alps. Bayesian clustering and multivariate analyses of nuclear microsatellite loci, combined with phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA, were used to assess population genetic structure and diversity. We identified two genetically highly differentiated lineages (A and B) that had no obvious differences in regional distribution patterns, and occurred in local sympatry. Furthermore, the two lineages differed in relative abundance, overall levels of genetic diversity as well as patterns of population structure: lineage A was abundant, widely distributed and had a higher level of genetic variation, whereas lineage B was less abundant, more prevalent in spring-fed tributaries than glacier-fed streams and restricted to high elevations. Subsequent morphological analyses revealed that traits previously acknowledged as intraspecific variation of B. alpinus in fact segregated these two lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our findings indicate that even common and apparently ecologically well-studied species may consist of reproductively isolated units, with distinct evolutionary histories and likely different ecology and evolutionary potential. These findings emphasize the need to investigate hidden diversity even in well-known species to allow for appropriate assessment of biological diversity and conservation measures.

The single principle of compositional data analysis, continuing fallacies, confusionsand misunderstandings and some suggested remedies

In any discipline, where uncertainty and variability are present, it is important to haveprinciples which are accepted as inviolate and which should therefore drive statisticalmodelling, statistical analysis of data and any inferences from such an analysis.Despite the fact that two such principles have existed over the last two decades andfrom these a sensible, meaningful methodology has been developed for the statisticalanalysis of compositional data, the application of inappropriate and/or meaninglessmethods persists in many areas of application. This paper identifies at least tencommon fallacies and confusions in compositional data analysis with illustrativeexamples and provides readers with necessary, and hopefully sufficient, arguments topersuade the culprits why and how they should amend their ways

Validation of an instrument to evaluate quality of life in the aging population: WHOQOL-AGE.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for short, specific instruments that assess quality of life (QOL) adequately in the older adult population. The aims of the present study were to obtain evidence on the validity of the inferences that could be drawn from an instrument to measure QOL in the aging population (people 50+ years old), and to test its psychometric properties. METHODS: The instrument, WHOQOL-AGE, comprised 13 positive items, assessed on a five-point rating scale, and was administered to nationally representative samples (n = 9987) from Finland, Poland, and Spain. Cronbach's alpha was employed to assess internal consistency reliability, whereas the validity of the questionnaire was assessed by means of factor analysis, graded response model, Pearson's correlation coefficient and unpaired t-test. Normative values were calculated across countries and for different age groups. RESULTS: The satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices confirmed that the factorial structure of WHOQOL-AGE comprises two first-order factors. Cronbach's alpha was 0.88 for factor 1, and 0.84 for factor 2. Evidence supporting a global score was found with a second-order factor model, according to the goodness-of-fit indices: CFI = 0.93, TLI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.073. Convergent validity was estimated at r = 0.75 and adequate discriminant validity was also found. Significant differences were found between healthy individuals (74.19 ± 13.21) and individuals with at least one chronic condition (64.29 ± 16.29), supporting adequate known-groups validity. CONCLUSIONS: WHOQOL-AGE has shown good psychometric properties in Finland, Poland, and Spain. Therefore, considerable support is provided to using the WHOQOL-AGE to measure QOL in older adults in these countries, and to compare the QOL of older and younger adults.