Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles

Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. Under these conditions, the actual market price of the security, that is set according to demand and supply, will be a function of the future price and vice versa. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past 15 years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. The analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in the UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found, although these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s.

Towards a framework for managing IT-enabled change, sourcing and governance

In the resource-based view, organisations are represented by the sum of their physical, human and organisational assets, resources and capabilities. Operational capabilities maintain the status quo and allow an organisation to execute their existing business. Dynamic capabilities, otherwise, allow an organisation to change this status quo including a change of the operational ones. Competitive advantage, in this context, is an effect of continuously developing and reconfiguring these firm-specific assets through dynamic capabilities. Deciding where and how to source the core operational capabilities is a key success factor. Furthermore, developing its dynamic capabilities allows an organisation to effectively manage change its operational capabilities. Many organisations are asserted to have a high dependency on - as well as a high benefit from - the use of information technology (IT), making it a crucial and overarching resource. Furthermore, the IT function is assigned the role as a change enabler and so IT sourcing affects the capability of managing business change. IT sourcing means that organisations need to decide how to source their IT capabilities. Outsourcing of parts of the IT function will also outsource some of the IT capabilities and therefore some of the business capabilities. As a result, IT sourcing has an impact on the organisation's capabilities and consequently on the business success. And finally, a turbulent and fast moving business environment challenges organisations to effectively and efficiently managing business change. Our research builds on the existing theory of dynamic and operational capabilities by considering the interdependencies between the dynamic capabilities of business change and IT sourcing. Further it examines the decision-making oversight of these areas as implemented through IT governance. We introduce a new conceptual framework derived from the existing theory and extended through an illustrative case study conducted in a German bank. Under a philosophical paradigm of constructivism, we collected data from eight semi-structured interviews and used additional sources of evidence in form of annual accounts, strategy papers and IT benchmark reports. We applied an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA), which emerged the superordinate themes for our tentative capabilities framework. An understanding of these interdependencies enables scholars and professionals to improve business success through effectively managing business change and evaluating the impact of IT sourcing decisions on the organisation's operational and dynamic capabilities.

The importance of vertical velocity variability for estimates of the indirect aerosol effects

The activation of aerosols to form cloud droplets is dependent upon vertical velocities whose local variability is not typically resolved at the GCM grid scale. Consequently, it is necessary to represent the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in the calculation of cloud droplet number concentration. This study uses the UK Chemistry and Aerosols community model (UKCA) within the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM3), coupled for the first time to an explicit aerosol activation parameterisation, and hence known as UKCA-Activate. We explore the range of uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects attributable to the choice of parameterisation of the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in HadGEM-UKCA. Results of simulations demonstrate that the use of a characteristic vertical velocity cannot replicate results derived with a distribution of vertical velocities, and is to be discouraged in GCMs. This study focuses on the effect of the variance (σw2) of a Gaussian pdf (probability density function) of vertical velocity. Fixed values of σw (spanning the range measured in situ by nine flight campaigns found in the literature) and a configuration in which σw depends on turbulent kinetic energy are tested. Results from the mid-range fixed σw and TKE-based configurations both compare well with observed vertical velocity distributions and cloud droplet number concentrations. The radiative flux perturbation due to the total effects of anthropogenic aerosol is estimated at −1.9 W m−2 with σw = 0.1 m s−1, −2.1 W m−2 with σw derived from TKE, −2.25 W m−2 with σw = 0.4 m s−1, and −2.3 W m−2 with σw = 0.7 m s−1. The breadth of this range is 0.4 W m−2, which is comparable to a substantial fraction of the total diversity of current aerosol forcing estimates. Reducing the uncertainty in the parameterisation of σw would therefore be an important step towards reducing the uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects. Detailed examination of regional radiative flux perturbations reveals that aerosol microphysics can be responsible for some climate-relevant radiative effects, highlighting the importance of including microphysical aerosol processes in GCMs.

Supply management capabilities, routine bundles and their impact on firm performance

Despite the generally positive contribution of supply management capabilities to firm performance their respective routines require more depth of assessment. Using the resource-based view we examine four routines bundles comprising ostensive and performative aspects of supply management capability – supply management integration, coordinated sourcing, collaboration management and performance assessment. Using structural equation modelling we measure supply management capability empirically as a second-order latent variable and estimate its effect on a series of financial and operational performance measures. The routines-based approach allows us to demonstrate a different, more fine-grained approach for assessing consistent bundles of homogeneous patterns of activity across firms. The results suggest supply management capability is formed of internally consistent routine bundles, which are significantly related to financial performance, mediated by operational performance. Our results confirm an indirect effect of firm performance for ‘core’ routines forming the architecture of a supply management capability. Supply management capability primarily improves the operational performance of the business, which is subsequently translated into improved financial performance. The study is significant for practice as it offers a different view about the face-valid rationale of supply management directly influencing firm financial performance. We confound this assumption, prompting caution when placing too much importance on directly assessing supply management capability using financial performance of the business.

The indirect amygdala-dorsal striatum pathway mediates conditioned freezing: Insights on emotional memory networks

The dorsal striatum (DS) is involved in various forms of learning and memory such as procedural learning, habit learning, reward-association and emotional learning. We have previously reported that bilateral DS lesions disrupt tone fear conditioning (TFC), but not contextual fear conditioning (CFC) [Ferreira TL, Moreira KM, Ikeda DC, Bueno OFA, Oliveira MGM (2003) Effects of dorsal striatum lesions in tone fear conditioning and contextual fear conditioning. Brain Res 987:17-24]. To further elucidate the participation of DS in emotional learning, in the present study, we investigated the effects of bilateral pretest (postraining) electrolytic DS lesions on TFC. Given the well-acknowledged role of the amygdala in emotional learning, we also examined a possible cooperation between DS and the amygdala in TFC, by using asymmetrical electrolytic lesions, consisting of a unilateral lesion of the central amygdaloid nucleus (CeA) combined to a contralateral DS lesion. The results show that pre-test bilateral DS lesions disrupt TFC responses, suggesting that DS plays a role in the expression of TFC. More importantly, rats with asymmetrical pre-training lesions were impaired in TFC, but not in CFC tasks. This result was confirmed with muscimol asymmetrical microinjections in DS and CeA, which reversibly inactivate these structures. On the other hand, similar pretest lesions as well as unilateral electrolytic lesions of CeA and DS in the same hemisphere did not affect TFC. Possible anatomical substrates underlying the observed effects are proposed. Overall, the present results underscore that other routes, aside from the well-established CeA projections to the periaqueductal gray, may contribute to the acquisition/consolidation of the freezing response associated to a TFC task. It is suggested that CeA may presumably influence DS processing via a synaptic relay on dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra compacta and retrorubral nucleus. The present observations are also in line with other studies showing that TFC and CFC responses are mediated by different anatomical networks. (C) 2008 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indirect study of (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions at astrophysical energies by means of the Trojan Horse Method: recent results

Nuclear (p,alpha) reactions destroying the so-called ""light-elements"" lithium, beryllium and boron have been largely studied in the past mainly because their role in understanding some astrophysical phenomena, i.e. mixing-phenomena occurring in young F-G stars [1]. Such mechanisms transport the surface material down to the region close to the nuclear destruction zone, where typical temperatures of the order of similar to 10(6) K are reached. The corresponding Gamow energy E(0)=1.22 (Z(x)(2)Z(X)(2)T(6)(2))(1/3) [2] is about similar to 10 keV if one considers the ""boron-case"" and replaces in the previous formula Z(x) = 1, Z(X) = 5 and T(6) = 5. Direct measurements of the two (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions in correspondence of this energy region are difficult to perform mainly because the combined effects of Coulomb barrier penetrability and electron screening [3]. The indirect method of the Trojan Horse (THM) [4-6] allows one to extract the two-body reaction cross section of interest for astrophysics without the extrapolation-procedures. Due to the THM formalism, the extracted indirect data have to be normalized to the available direct ones at higher energies thus implying that the method is a complementary tool in solving some still open questions for both nuclear and astrophysical issues [7-12].

Indirect study of (p, alpha) and (n, alpha) reactions induced on boron isotopes

Several experiments were performed to investigate both (p, alpha) and (n, alpha) reactions induced on boron isotopes, by means of Quasi-Free (QF) reactions induced on deuteron target. The experimental study of the astrophysically relevant, (11)B(p, alpha(0))(8)Be reaction was performed by selecting the QF-contribution on the (2)H((11)B, alpha(8)(0)Be)n reaction. Moreover, due to the large interest of a better understanding of (n, alpha) reactions both for nuclear and astrophysical developments, a preliminary study of the (10)B(n, alpha)(7)Li through the QF (2)H((10)B, alpha(7)Li)p reaction was also performed. The results concerning the two experiments will be shown and discussed.

Indirect Study of the (2)H(d,p)(3)H and (2)H(d,n)(3)He Reactions at Astrophysical Energies via the Trojan Horse Method

The (2)H(d,p)(3)H and (2)H(d,n)(3)He reactions have been indirectly studied by means of the Trojan Horse Method applied to the quasi-free (2)H((3)He, p(3)H)(1)H (2)H((3)He, n(3)He)(1)H reaction at 18 MeV of beam energy. This is the first experiment where the spectator (here (1)H) has been detected in coincidence with the charged participant, avoiding the limitations of standard neutron detectors. The d - d relative energy has been measured from 1.5 MeV down to 2 keV, at center of mass angles from 40A degrees to 170A degrees. Indirect angular distributions are compared with the direct behaviour in the overlapping regions.

Rapid method for the determination. of organic acids in wine by capillary electrophoresis with indirect UV detection

A capillary electrophoresis method for organic acids in wine was developed and validated. The optimal electrolyte consisted of 10 mmol/L 3,5-dinitrobenzoic acid (DNB) at pH 3.6 containing 0.2 mmol/L cetyltrimethylammonium bromide as flow reverser. DNB was chosen because it has an effective mobility similar to the organic acids under investigation, good buffering capacity at pH 3.6, and good chromophoric characteristics for indirect UV-absorbance detection at 254 nm. Sample preparation involved dilution and filtration. The method showed good performance characteristics: Linearity at 6 to 285 mg/L (r > 0.99); detection and quantification limits of 0.64 to 1.55 and 2.12 to 5.15 mg/L, respectively; separation time of less than 5.5 min. Coefficients of variation for ten injections were less than 5% and recoveries varied from 95% to 102%. Application to 23 samples of Brazilian wine confirmed good repeatability and demonstrated wide variation in the organic acid concentrations. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A New Indirect Electroanalytical Method to Monitor the Contamination of Natural Waters with 4-Nitrophenol Using Multiwall Carbon Nanotubes

The electrochemical detection of the hazardous pollutant 4-nitrophenol (4-NP) at low potentials, in order to avoid matrix interferences, is an important research challenge. This study describes the development, electrochemical characterization and utilization of a multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT) film electrode for the quantitative determination of 4-NP in natural water. Electrochemical impedence spectroscopy measurements showed that the modified surface exhibits a decrease of ca. 13 times in the charge transfer resistance when compared with a bare glassy carbon (GC) surface. Voltammetric experiments showed the possibility to oxidize a hydroxylamine layer (produced by the electrochemical reduction of 4-NP on the GC/MWNCT surface) in a potential region which is approximately 700 mV less positive than that needed to oxidize 4-NP, thus minimizing the interference of matrix components. The limit of detection for 4-NP obtained using square-wave voltammetry (0.12 mu mol L(-1)) was lower than the value advised by EPA. A natural water sample from a dam located in Sao Carlos (Brazil) was spiked with 4-NP and analyzed by the standard addition method using thee GC/MWCNT electrode, without any further purification step. the recovery procedure yielded a value of 96.5% for such sample, thus confirming the suitability of the developed method to determine 4-NP in natural water samples. The electrochemical determination was compared with that obtained by HPLC with UV-vis detection.

A New Indirect Electrochemical Method for Determination of Ozone in Water Using Multiwalled Carbon Nanotubes

A new electrochemical methodology has been developed for the detection of ozone using multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT). The method presented here is based on the reaction of ozone with indigo blue dye producing anthranilic acid (ATN). The electrochemical profile of ATN on an electrode of glassy carbon (GC) modified with MWCNT showed an oxidation peak potential at 750 mV vs. Ag/AgCl. An analytical method was developed using differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) to determine ATN in a range of 50-400 nmol L(-1), with a detection limit of 9.7 nmol L(-1). Ozonated water samples were successfully analyzed by GC/MWCNT electrode and the recovery procedure yielded values between of 96.5 and 102.3%.

Lifestyle factors, direct and indirect costs for a Brazilian airline company

OBJECTIVE: To analyze lifestyle risk factors related to direct healthcare costs and the indirect costs due to sick leave among workers of an airline company in Brazil. METHODS: In this longitudinal 12-month study of 2,201 employees of a Brazilian airline company, the costs of sick leave and healthcare were the primary outcomes of interest. Information on the independent variables, such as gender, age, educational level, type of work, stress, and lifestyle-related factors (body mass index, physical activity, and smoking), was collected using a questionnaire on enrolment in the study. Data on sick leave days were available from the company register, and data on healthcare costs were obtained from insurance records. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to investigate the association between direct and indirect healthcare costs with sociodemographic, work, and lifestyle-related factors. RESULTS: Over the 12-month study period, the average direct healthcare expenditure per worker was US$505.00 and the average indirect cost because of sick leave was US$249.00 per worker. Direct costs were more than twice the indirect costs and both were higher in women. Body mass index was a determinant of direct costs and smoking was a determinant of indirect costs. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and smoking among workers in a Brazilian airline company were associated with increased health costs. Therefore, promoting a healthy diet, physical activity, and anti-tobacco campaigns are important targets for health promotion in this study population.