Análise do comportamento das actividades económicas por grupo segundo índices de volume de negócios, emprego, remunerações e horas trabalhadas nos serviços entre 2009 e 2010

Os indicadores económicos, evoluem de acordo com as actividades que se desenvolvem no país. Assim progridem ou regridem em função do desempenho dos sectores de actividade económica. Estes indicadores agrupam-se em secções diversas. Deste modo interessa, verificar de que forma essas actividades, que se agrupam em situações distintas, se assemelham ou não entre si. A classificação de variáveis e objectos semelhantes em grupos é uma importante actividade humana. Em todas as fases da vida, a classificação faz parte do processo de aprendizagem, principalmente, quando esta tem um peso enorme tal como quando uma criança aprende a distinguir o preto do branco, o pai da mãe. A classificação torna-se num processo do quotidiano onde no subconsciente estão a ser aplicadas ordenações consoante as situações com que nos deparamos constantemente. Em temas actuais, como a economia, gestão e marketing a classificação surge para a investigação de relações entre conjuntos de objectos ou variáveis. Isto poderá resultar, ou não, num resumo de dados sob a forma de grupo, de objectos ou variáveis semelhantes entre si (dentro do mesmo grupo) e dissemelhantes em relação a grupos distintos. Este trabalho tem como objectivo verificar de que forma as actividades económicas portuguesas são agrupadas entre si, mediante o estado da evolução económica nacional entre os anos de 2009 e 2010. Nesta análise são trabalhadas vinte e sete actividades económicas, agrupadas em sete secções ou ramos diferentes de forma a conseguir verificar como se comportam áreas que contêm produtos ou serviços totalmente distintos. Neste trabalho é utilizada a análise classificatória. Através deste método é estudado o nível de semelhança das actividades sob a representação de grupos. Nas diferentes áreas de actividades são estudados quatro índices: Volume de Negócios; Emprego; Remunerações e Horas trabalhadas.

Collaborative eLearning Assistant Network: caring agents are conscious agents

Would a research assistant - who can search for ideas related to those you are working on, network with others (but only share the things you have chosen to share), doesn’t need coffee and who might even, one day, appear to be conscious - help you get your work done? Would it help your students learn? There is a body of work showing that digital learning assistants can be a benefit to learners. It has been suggested that adaptive, caring, agents are more beneficial. Would a conscious agent be more caring, more adaptive, and better able to deal with changes in its learning partner’s life? Allow the system to try to dynamically model the user, so that it can make predictions about what is needed next, and how effective a particular intervention will be. Now, given that the system is essentially doing the same things as the user, why don’t we design the system so that it can try to model itself in the same way? This should mimic a primitive self-awareness. People develop their personalities, their identities, through interacting with others. It takes years for a human to develop a full sense of self. Nobody should expect a prototypical conscious computer system to be able to develop any faster than that. How can we provide a computer system with enough social contact to enable it to learn about itself and others? We can make it part of a network. Not just chatting with other computers about computer ‘stuff’, but involved in real human activity. Exposed to ‘raw meaning’ – the developing folksonomies coming out of the learning activities of humans, whether they are traditional students or lifelong learners (a term which should encompass everyone). Humans have complex psyches, comprised of multiple strands of identity which reflect as different roles in the communities of which they are part – so why not design our system the same way? With multiple internal modes of operation, each capable of being reflected onto the outside world in the form of roles – as a mentor, a research assistant, maybe even as a friend. But in order to be able to work with a human for long enough to be able to have a chance of developing the sort of rich behaviours we associate with people, the system needs to be able to function in a practical and helpful role. Unfortunately, it is unlikely to get a free ride from many people (other than its developer!) – so it needs to be able to perform a useful role, and do so securely, respecting the privacy of its partner. Can we create a system which learns to be more human whilst helping people learn?

Problem structuring methods: theorizing the benefits of deconstructing sustainable development projects

Problem structuring methods or PSMs are widely applied across a range of variable but generally small-scale organizational contexts. However, it has been argued that they are seen and experienced less often in areas of wide ranging and highly complex human activity-specifically those relating to sustainability, environment, democracy and conflict (or SEDC). In an attempt to plan, track and influence human activity in SEDC contexts, the authors in this paper make the theoretical case for a PSM, derived from various existing approaches. They show how it could make a contribution in a specific practical context-within sustainable coastal development projects around the Mediterranean which have utilized systemic and prospective sustainability analysis or, as it is now known, Imagine. The latter is itself a PSM but one which is 'bounded' within the limits of the project to help deliver the required 'deliverables' set out in the project blueprint. The authors argue that sustainable development projects would benefit from a deconstruction of process by those engaged in the project and suggest one approach that could be taken-a breakout from a project-bounded PSM to an analysis that embraces the project itself. The paper begins with an introduction to the sustainable development context and literature and then goes on to illustrate the issues by grounding the debate within a set of projects facilitated by Blue Plan for Mediterranean coastal zones. The paper goes on to show how the analytical framework could be applied and what insights might be generated.

Seasonal deposition of Holocene banded sediments in the Severn Estuary Levels (southwest Britain): palynological and sedimentological evidence

Banded sediments outcrop widely in the intertidal zone of the Severn Estuary and have been suggested, on the basis of textural analysis, to have formed in response to seasonal variations in sea temperature and windiness (Holocene, 14 (2004) 536). Here palynological and sedimentological analyses of banded sediments of mid-Holocene date from Gold Cliff, on the Welsh side of the Severn Estuary, are combined to test and further develop the hypothesis of seasonal deposition. Pollen percentage and concentration data are presented from a short sequence of bands to establish whether textural variations in the bands coincide with variations in pollen content reflecting seasonal flowering patterns. It is shown that fine-grained band parts contain higher total pollen concentrations, and a higher proportion of pollen from late spring- to summer-flowering plants, than coarse-grained band parts. Pollen in the coarser deposits appears primarily to reflect deposition from the buffering `reservoir' of suspended pollen in the estuarine water-body and from rivers, when there is little pollen in the air in winter, while the finer sediments contain pollen deposited from the atmosphere during the flowering season, superimposed on these `background' sources. The potential of such deposits for refining chronologies and identifying seasonality of coastal processes is noted, and the results of charcoal particle analysis of the bands presented as an example of how they have the potential to shed light on seasonal and annual patterns of human activity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

African climate change: Taking the shorter route

Numerous factors are associated with poverty and underdevelopment in Africa, including climate variability. Rainfall, and climate more generally, are implicated directly in the United Nations “Millennium Development Goals” to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, and reduce child mortality and incidence of diseases such as malaria by the target date of 2015. But, Africa is not currently on target to meet these goals. We pose a number of questions from a climate science perspective aimed at understanding this background: Is there a common origin to factors that currently constrain climate science? Why is it that in a continent where human activity is so closely linked to interannual rainfall variability has climate science received little of the benefit that saw commercialization driving meteorology in the developed world? What might be suggested as an effective way for the continent to approach future climate variability and change? We make the case that a route to addressing the challenges of climate change in Africa rests with the improved management of climate variability. We start by discussing the constraints on climate science and how they might be overcome. We explain why the optimal management of activities directly influenced by interannual climate variability (which include the development of scientific capacity) has the potential to serve as a forerunner to engagement in the wider issue of climate change. We show this both from the perspective of the climate system and the institutions that engage with climate issues. We end with a thought experiment that tests the benefits of linking climate variability and climate change in the setting of smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Effects of a sex-ratio distorting endosymbiont on mtDNA variation in a global insect pest

Background: Patterns of mtDNA variation within a species reflect long-term population structure, but may also be influenced by maternally inherited endosymbionts, such as Wolbachia. These bacteria often alter host reproductive biology and can drive particular mtDNA haplotypes through populations. We investigated the impacts of Wolbachia infection and geography on mtDNA variation in the diamondback moth, a major global pest whose geographic distribution reflects both natural processes and transport via human agricultural activities. Results: The mtDNA phylogeny of 95 individuals sampled from 10 countries on four continents revealed two major clades. One contained only Wolbachia-infected individuals from Malaysia and Kenya, while the other contained only uninfected individuals, from all countries including Malaysia and Kenya. Within the uninfected group was a further clade containing all individuals from Australasia and displaying very limited sequence variation. In contrast, a biparental nuclear gene phylogeny did not have infected and uninfected clades, supporting the notion that maternally-inherited Wolbachia are responsible for the mtDNA pattern. Only about 5% (15/306) of our global sample of individuals was infected with the plutWBI isolate and even within infected local populations, many insects were uninfected. Comparisons of infected and uninfected isofemale lines revealed that plutWBI is associated with sex ratio distortion. Uninfected lines have a 1:1 sex ratio, while infected ones show a 2:1 female bias. Conclusion: The main correlate of mtDNA variation in P. xylostella is presence or absence of the plutWBI infection. This is associated with substantial sex ratio distortion and the underlying mechanisms deserve further study. In contrast, geographic origin is a poor predictor of moth mtDNA sequences, reflecting human activity in moving the insects around the globe. The exception is a clade of Australasian individuals, which may reflect a bottleneck during their recent introduction to this region.

Detecting the environmental impact of the Baltic Crusades on a late-medieval (13th-15th century) frontier landscape: palynological analysis from Malbork Castle and hinterland, Northern Poland

Palaeoecological analysis of peat deposits from a small bog, combined with pollen analysis of sediments infilling the moat of the nearby Teutonic Order castle at Malbork, have been used to examine the ecological impact of the Crusades on the late-medieval landscape of Northern Poland. Studies of the environmental impact of the Crusades have been almost exclusively informed by written sources; this study is the first of its type to directly investigate the environmental context of Crusading as a force of ecological transformation on the late-medieval Baltic landscape. The pollen evidence from Malbork Castle and its hinterland demonstrate that the 12th/13th–15th centuries coincide with a marked transformation in vegetation and land-use, characterized by clearance of broadleaved woodland and subsequent agricultural intensification, particularly during the 14th/15th centuries. These changes are ascribed to landscape transformations associated with the Teutonic Order’s control of the landscape from the mid-13th century. Human activity identified in the pollen record prior to this is argued to reflect the activities of Pomeranian settlers in the area. This paper also discusses the broader palaeoecological evidence for medieval landscape change across Northern Poland.

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity.

Mesolithic to Neolithic and medieval coastal environmental change: intertidal survey at Woolaston, Gloucestershire

At Woolaston on the western shores of the middle Severn Estuary c. 7 km upstream of Chepstow intertidal Holocene sediment exposures have been surveyed and the stratigraphic sequence established by coring and limited excavation. There are two main peats each with a submerged forest. An existing dendrochronological sequence for the Upper Submerged Forest has been extended and the preliminary results of pollen analysis from the peat sequence are summarised. A few flint flakes were found but were not stratified in the mid-Holocene sequence. There is evidence for late Mesolithic / early Neolithic burning episodes which may relate to human activity. Evidence is reported for Medieval activity and the extensive modification of drainage in this period is suggested.

The arbitrariness and normativity of social conventions

This paper investigates a puzzling feature of social conventions: the fact that they are both arbitrary and normative. We examine how this tension is addressed in sociological accounts of conventional phenomena. Traditional approaches tend to generate either synchronic accounts that fail to consider the arbitrariness of conventions, or diachronic accounts that miss central aspects of their normativity. As a remedy, we propose a processual conception that considers conventions as both the outcome and material cause of much human activity. This conceptualization, which borrows from the économie des conventions as well as critical realism, provides a novel perspective on how conventions are nested and defined, and on how they are established, maintained and challenged.

A high resolution late Holocene palaeo environmental record from the central Adriatic Sea

A multi-proxy study of a Holocene sediment core (RF 93-30) from the western flank of the central Adriatic, in 77 m of water, reveals a sequence of changes in terrestrial vegetation, terrigenous sediment input and benthic fauna, as well as evidence for variations in sea surface temperature spanning most of the last 7000 yr. The chronology of sedimentation is based on several lines of evidence, including AMS 14C dates of foraminifera extracted from the core, palaeomagnetic secular variation, pollen indicators and dated tephra. The temporal resolution increases towards the surface and, for some of the properties measured, is sub-decadal for the last few centuries. The main changes recorded in vegetation, sedimentation and benthic foraminiferal assemblages appear to be directly related to human activity in the sediment source area, which includes the Po valley and the eastern flanks of the central and northern Appenines. The most striking episodes of deforestation and expanding human impact begin around 3600 BP (Late Bronze Age) and 700 BP (Medieval) and each leads to an acceleration in mass sedimentation and an increase in the proportion of terrigenous material, reflecting the response of surface processes to widespread forest clearance and cultivation. Although human impact appears to be the proximal cause of these changes, climatic effects may also have been important. During these periods, signs of stress are detectable in the benthic foram morphotype assemblages. Between these two periods of increased terrigeneous sedimentation there is smaller peak in sedimentation rate around 2400BP which is not associated with evidence for deforestation, shifts in the balance between terrigenous and authigenic sedimentation, or changes in benthic foraminifera. The mineral magnetic record provides a sensitive indicator of changing sediment sources: during forested periods of reduced terrigenous input it is dominated by authigenic bacterial magnetite, whereas during periods of increased erosion, anti-ferromagetic minerals (haematite and/or goethite) become more important, as well as both paramagnetic minerals and super-paramagnetic magnetite. Analysis of the alkenone, U37k′, record provides an indication of possible changes in sea surface temperature during the period, but it is premature to place too much reliance on these inferred changes until the indirect effects of past changes in the depth of the halocline and in circulation have been more fully evaluated. The combination of methods used and the results obtained illustrate the potential value of such high resolution near-shore marine sedimentary sequences for recording wide-scale human impact, documenting the effects of this on marine sedimentation and fauna and, potentially, disentangling evidence for human activities from that for past changes in climate.

Late Quaternary fire regimes of Australasia

We have compiled 223 sedimentary charcoal records from Australasia in order to examine the temporal and spatial variability of fire regimes during the Late Quaternary. While some of these records cover more than a full glacial cycle, here we focus on the last 70,000 years when the number of individual records in the compilation allows more robust conclusions. On orbital time scales, fire in Australasia predominantly reflects climate, with colder periods characterized by less and warmer intervals by more biomass burning. The composite record for the region also shows considerable millennial-scale variability during the last glacial interval (73.5–14.7 ka). Within the limits of the dating uncertainties of individual records, the variability shown by the composite charcoal record is more similar to the form, number and timing of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles as observed in Greenland ice cores than to the variability expressed in the Antarctic ice-core record. The composite charcoal record suggests increased biomass burning in the Australasian region during Greenland Interstadials and reduced burning during Greenland Stadials. Millennial-scale variability is characteristic of the composite record of the sub-tropical high pressure belt during the past 21 ka, but the tropics show a somewhat simpler pattern of variability with major peaks in biomass burning around 15 ka and 8 ka. There is no distinct change in fire regime corresponding to the arrival of humans in Australia at 50 ± 10 ka and no correlation between archaeological evidence of increased human activity during the past 40 ka and the history of biomass burning. However, changes in biomass burning in the last 200 years may have been exacerbated or influenced by humans.

The role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle: tracking the below-ground microbial processing of plant-derived carbon for manipulating carbon dynamics in agricultural systems.

It is well known that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) (and other greenhouse gases) have increased markedly as a result of human activity since the industrial revolution. It is perhaps less appreciated that natural and managed soils are an important source and sink for atmospheric CO2 and that, primarily as a result of the activities of soil microorganisms, there is a soil-derived respiratory flux of CO2 to the atmosphere that overshadows by tenfold the annual CO2 flux from fossil fuel emissions. Therefore small changes in the soil carbon cycle could have large impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here we discuss the role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle and review the main methods that have been used to identify the microorganisms responsible for the processing of plant photosynthetic carbon inputs to soil. We discuss whether application of these techniques can provide the information required to underpin the management of agro-ecosystems for carbon sequestration and increased agricultural sustainability. We conclude that, although crucial in enabling the identification of plant-derived carbon-utilising microbes, current technologies lack the high-throughput ability to quantitatively apportion carbon use by phylogentic groups and its use efficiency and destination within the microbial metabolome. It is this information that is required to inform rational manipulation of the plant–soil system to favour organisms or physiologies most important for promoting soil carbon storage in agricultural soil.

The neolithisation of Liguria (NW Italy): an environmental archaeological and palaeoenvironmental perspective

The archaeological evidence compiled for Liguria has enabled the formulation of a comprehensive model of Neolithic social, technological and economic development (∼7800–5700 cal yrs BP). The model indicates that during the Early and Middle Neolithic (∼7800–6300 cal yrs BP; ‘Impressed Ware’ and ‘Square Mouthed’ pottery cultures) human activity mainly focussed on low (coastal) and mid-altitude areas. By the Late Neolithic (∼6300–5700 cal yrs BP; ‘Chassey’ culture) farming practices were taking place over a wider range of altitudes and involved transhumant pastoralism. Complementary environmental archaeological and palaeoecological records from caves, open-air sites, lakes and mires indicate that human activities had a more significant impact on the environment than previously thought. This included clearance, especially Abies, Ulmus, Fraxinus and Tilia, and woodland utilisation and management (e.g. leaf foddering), as well as cereal cultivation and animal husbandry. The influence of Middle Holocene climatic changes, especially from ∼7800 cal yrs BP, on the direction of vegetation changes and socio-economic developments during the Neolithic remain uncertain.

The timing and causes of the Neolithic elm decline: new evidence from the Lower Thames Valley (London, UK)

Two new multi-proxy records of environmental change are provided from Horton Kirby Paper Mill and Old Seager Distillery in the Lower Thames Valley. Each site has evidence for a decline in elm woodland, which at Horton Kirby Paper Mill is recorded earlier than any other published record from the British Isles: sometime between 7320 and 7240 cal BP. Scolytus scolytus/S. multistriatus (the vectors for Dutch elm disease) are recorded after the decline in both sequences, adding to the number of sites with such evidence in the British Isles. Evidence of paludification and human activity are also recorded at the time of the elm decline reinforcing the multi-causal hypothesis. Integration of these results with 21 palaeoenvironmental records has produced a large number of well-dated, multiproxy records of the elm decline in this part of the UK. On the basis of this dataset, a classification system for categorising the relationships between the causal factors of the elm decline is proposed and recommended for future studies.