Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ���11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ���19,000 to ���17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ���13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ���3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: stratospheric and global circulation changes

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme ���Maunder Minimum like��� grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference RCP8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (~1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.4 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (~���0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern hemisphere (NH) winter-time, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ~3-4 m s1, with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian low at the surface and an increase in blocking over northern Europe and the north Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200���320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Ni��o���Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, new indices are developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential for pulse (GPP_P) and sustained (GPP_S) emissions, which measure the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the effects of different emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. Hence the GPP provides an additional perspective of the relative or absolute effects of emissions. It is however recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions and this limits the usefulness of a purely global metric. The GPP_P and GPP_S formulation consists of two terms, one dependent on the surface temperature change and the other dependent on the atmospheric component of the radiative forcing. For some forcing agents, and notably for CO2, these two terms oppose each other ��� as the forcing and temperature perturbations have different timescales, even the sign of the absolute GPP_P and GPP_S varies with time, and the opposing terms can make values sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. This makes the choice of CO2 as a reference gas problematic, especially for the GPP_S at time horizons less than about 60 years. In addition, few studies have presented results for the surface/atmosphere partitioning of different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantifying the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Values of the GPP_P and GPP_S for five long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon ��� BC) are presented, using illustrative values of required parameters. The resulting precipitation changes are given as the change at a specific time horizon (and hence they are end-point metrics) but it is noted that the GPPS can also be interpreted as the time-integrated effect of a pulse emission. Using CO2 as a references gas, the GPP_P and GPP_S for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPP_S is opposite in sign to the GTP_S. The sensitivity of these values to a number of input parameters is explored. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPP_P) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPP_S) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the five species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.

Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or ���Mediterranean hurricanes��� represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion���Genoa and South of Sicily.

Effects of a dexmedetomidine constant rate infusion and atropine on changes in global perfusion variables induced by hemorrhage followed by volume replacement in isoflurane-anesthetized dogs

Funda����o de Amparo �� Pesquisa do Estado de S��o Paulo (FAPESP)

Changes in the intermediate water mass formation rates in the global ocean for the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and pre-industrial climates

The paleoclimate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3 (NCAR-CCSM3) is used to analyze changes in the water formation rates in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) control climate. During the MH, CCSM3 exhibits a north-south asymmetric response of intermediate water subduction changes in the Atlantic Ocean, with a reduction of 2 Sv in the North Atlantic and an increase of 2 Sv in the South Atlantic relative to PI. During the LGM, there is increased formation of intermediate water and a more stagnant deep ocean in the North Pacific. The production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is significantly weakened. The NADW is replaced in large extent by enhanced Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW), and also by an intensified of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), with the latter being a response to the enhanced salinity and ice formation around Antarctica. Most of the LGM intermediate/mode water is formed at 27.4 < sigma(theta) < 29.0 kg/m(3), while for the MH and PI most of the subduction transport occurs at 26.5 < sigma(theta) < 27.4 kg/m(3). The simulated LGM Southern Hemisphere winds are more intense by 0.2-0.4 dyne/cm(2). Consequently, increased Ekman transport drives the production of intermediate water (low salinity) at a larger rate and at higher densities when compared to the other climatic periods.

Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10-15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developmental changes of BOLD signal correlations with global human EEG power and synchronization during working memory

In humans, theta band (5-7 Hz) power typically increases when performing cognitively demanding working memory (WM) tasks, and simultaneous EEG-fMRI recordings have revealed an inverse relationship between theta power and the BOLD (blood oxygen level dependent) signal in the default mode network during WM. However, synchronization also plays a fundamental role in cognitive processing, and the level of theta and higher frequency band synchronization is modulated during WM. Yet, little is known about the link between BOLD, EEG power, and EEG synchronization during WM, and how these measures develop with human brain maturation or relate to behavioral changes. We examined EEG-BOLD signal correlations from 18 young adults and 15 school-aged children for age-dependent effects during a load-modulated Sternberg WM task. Frontal load (in-)dependent EEG theta power was significantly enhanced in children compared to adults, while adults showed stronger fMRI load effects. Children demonstrated a stronger negative correlation between global theta power and the BOLD signal in the default mode network relative to adults. Therefore, we conclude that theta power mediates the suppression of a task-irrelevant network. We further conclude that children suppress this network even more than adults, probably from an increased level of task-preparedness to compensate for not fully mature cognitive functions, reflected in lower response accuracy and increased reaction time. In contrast to power, correlations between instantaneous theta global field synchronization and the BOLD signal were exclusively positive in both age groups but only significant in adults in the frontal-parietal and posterior cingulate cortices. Furthermore, theta synchronization was weaker in children and was--in contrast to EEG power--positively correlated with response accuracy in both age groups. In summary we conclude that theta EEG-BOLD signal correlations differ between spectral power and synchronization and that these opposite correlations with different distributions undergo similar and significant neuronal developments with brain maturation.

Subsecond changes of global brain state in illusory multistable motion perception

This study explored transient changes in EEG microstates and spatial Omega complexity associated with changes in multistable perception. 21-channel EEG was recorded from 13 healthy subjects viewing an alternating dot pattern that induced illusory motion with ambiguous direction. Baseline epochs with stable motion direction were compared to epochs immediately preceding stimuli that were perceived with changed motion direction ('reference stimuli'). About 750 ms before reference stimuli, Omega complexity decreased as compared to baseline, and two of four classes of EEG microstates changed their probability of occurrence. About 300 ms before reference stimuli, Omega complexity increased and the previous deviations of EEG microstates were reversed. Given earlier results on Omega complexity and microstates, these sub-second EEG changes might parallel longer-lasting fluctuations in vigilance. Assumedly, the discontinuities of illusory motion thus occur during sub-second dips in arousal, and the following reconstruction of the illusion coincides with a state of relative over-arousal.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.