Fractional Dynamics in Forest Fires

Every year forest fires consume large areas, being a major concern in many countries like Australia, United States and Mediterranean Basin European Countries (e.g., Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece). Understanding patterns of such events, in terms of size and spatiotemporal distributions, may help to take measures beforehand in view of possible hazards and decide strategies of fire prevention, detection and suppression. Traditional statistical tools have been used to study forest fires. Nevertheless, those tools might not be able to capture the main features of fires complex dynamics and to model fire behaviour [1]. Forest fires size-frequency distributions unveil long range correlations and long memory characteristics, which are typical of fractional order systems [2]. Those complex correlations are characterized by self-similarity and absence of characteristic length-scale, meaning that forest fires exhibit power-law (PL) behaviour. Forest fires have also been proved to exhibit time-clustering phenomena, with timescales of the order of few days [3]. In this paper, we study forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). Public domain forest fires catalogues, containing data of events occurred in Portugal, in the period 1980 up to 2011, are considered. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses. The frequency spectra of such signals are determined using Fourier transforms, and approximated through PL trendlines. The PL parameters are then used to unveil the fractional-order dynamics characteristics of the data. To complement the analysis, correlation indices are used to compare and find possible relationships among the data. It is shown that the used approach can be useful to expose hidden patterns not captured by traditional tools.

Forest management: different criteria – equal sustainability

From the forest management perspective, many definitions have been proposed for the concept of forest sustainability. Despite this apparent diversity, most of them converge on the same aspects. In this work we developed a comparative approach of two distinct forest management methodologies used in Europe, more precisely in Slovenia and in Portugal. Although in each case study differences in vegetation, climate and pedological characteristics are evident, we were able to show some peculiar aspects of both the Slovenian and the Portuguese examples. This study also dealt with the evolution of the term sustainability in the last decades and how it played an important role for forest management options.

Analysis of Forest Effects in Wind Farm Performance

The objective of the thesis is to analyze the behaviour of the wind flow when it is passing beside the forest. To complete this analysis, a parametric study was done based upon generalized situations. Some abacus have been made, which are related to forest and wind characteristics. The abacus were compared with a particular real case, namely Alexandrovo (Bulgaria), where it was concluded that the applicability of the abacus in projects with complex terrain is low and they must be used, from a quantitative point of view, for flat terrain, being hc the most important parameter.

Geospatial data harmonization from regional level to european level: a usa case in forest fire data

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

FireSpotter a VGI-Based Forest Fire Reporting System

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii (DIPTERA: CULICIDAE) IN PERIDOMICILIARY AREA DURING ASYMPTOMATIC MALARIA TRANSMISSION IN THE ATLANTIC FOREST: MOLECULAR IDENTIFICATION OF BLOOD-MEAL SOURCES INDICATES HUMANS AS PRIMARY INTERMEDIATE HOSTS

Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii has been implicated as the primary vector of human and simian malarias out of the Brazilian Amazon and specifically in the Atlantic Forest regions. The presence of asymptomatic human cases, parasite-positive wild monkeys and the similarity between the parasites infecting them support the discussion whether these infections can be considered as a zoonosis. Although many aspects of the biology of An. cruzii have already been addressed, studies conducted during outbreaks of malaria transmission, aiming at the analysis of blood feeding and infectivity, are missing in the Atlantic Forest. This study was conducted in the location of Palestina, Juquitiba, where annually the majority of autochthonous human cases are notified in the Atlantic Forest of the state of São Paulo. Peridomiciliary sites were selected for collection of mosquitoes in a perimeter of up to 100 m around the residences of human malaria cases. The mosquitoes were analyzed with the purpose of molecular identification of blood-meal sources and to examine the prevalence of Plasmodium. A total of 13,441 females of An. (Ker.) cruzii were collected. The minimum infection rate was calculated at 0.03% and 0.01%, respectively, for P. vivax and P. malariae and only human blood was detected in the blood-fed mosquitoes analyzed. This data reinforce the hypothesis that asymptomatic human carriers are the main source of anopheline infection in the peridomiciliary area, making the probability of zoonotic transmission less likely to happen.

The effects of land-use development policies on forest management

This paper develops a model of a forest owner operating in an open-city environment, where the rent for developed land is increasing concave in nearby preserved open space and is rising over time reflecting an upward trend in households’ income. Thus, our model creates the possibility of switching from forestry to residential use at some point in the future. In addition it allows the optimal harvest length to vary over time even if stumpage prices and regeneration costs remain constant. Within this framework we examine how adjacent preserved open space and alternative development constraints affect the private landowner´s decisions. We find that in the presence of rising income, preserved open space hastens regeneration and conversion cuts but leads to lower density development of nearby unzoned parcels due to indirect dynamic effects. We also find that both a binding development moratorium and a binding minimum-lot-size policy can postpone regeneration and conversion cut dates and thus help to protect open space even if only temporarily. However, the policies do not have the same effects on development density of converted forestland. While the former leads to high-density development, the latter encourages low-density development.

Forest management in an urbanizing landscape

This paper aims at building a theoretical framework to examine the impact of development pressure on private owner’s forest management practices, namely, on regeneration and conversion cut dates. As the rent for developed land is rising over time, our model creates the possibility of switching from forestry to residential use at some point in the future, thus departing from the Faustmann’s traditional setup. Comparative statics results with respect to stumpage prices, regeneration costs and urban growth parameters are provided. The results obtained depend on the impact on the opportunity cost of holding the stand and the impact on the opportunity cost of holding the land, generalizing Faustmann’s unambiguous results.

Geospatial assessment of pest-induced forest damage through the use of UAV-bases NIR imaging and Gi-technology

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Ecology of Phlebotomine sandflies (Diptera, Psychodidae) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The phlebotomine sandfly fauna of a primary forest reserve at Morretes (eastern Paraná State) was studied, using CDC-like light traps, one night per month, at canopy and ground level, between April 1995 and March 1996. A total of 3,106 insects were collected, identified as belonging to nine species. Lutzomyia ayrozai and Lu.geniculata were predominant, seven other species also being present. Monthly mean temperature, rainfall and the temperature of the collection night significantly influenced the numbers of Lu. ayrozai while the two first factors influenced the numbers of Lu. geniculata, besides the collected quantities of females of the two species. The influence of the factors on Lu. ayrozai numbers was more immediate than in those of Lu. geniculata. Numbers of both species and of the females of Lu. geniculata collected in different seasons, but not at the different heights, varied significantly. Differences between the behaviour of Lu. ayrozai in Morretes and in other regions could be attributed to environmental differences and/or to regional variations in the species, which could constitute species complexes. Hourly variations of collections were different in the species and seasons.

Preliminary evidence of association between species of mosquitoes in Atlantic forest of Santa Catarina State, (Diptera: Culicidae)

A positive coefficient of association (affinity) between Runchomyia reversa and Anopheles cruzii and high (0.38) index were observed, probably due to the similar breeding places (bromeliads) and to landing habits. Furthermore, a high (0.92) index of association between Oc. scapularis and Wyeomyia incaudata, with low coefficient of association was observed.

Preliminary study into the landing behaviour on the human body of morning-biting mosquitoes in Atlantic forest in the State of Santa Catarina (Diptera: Culicidae)

Mosquitoes (22 species) (0.5%) and Runchomyia reversa (5%) biting humans in the morning in Florianópolis, State of Santa Catarina, were significantly more common below than above waist and all Wyeomyia incaudata were collected below the waist. Short trousers are not recommended, unless using repellents.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

First report of an accident with the speckled forest pit viper (Bothriopsis taeniata) in Brazil

The first reported case of an accident with Bothriopsis taeniata in Brazil is described. The victim, a 43-year-old man, was bitten just above his right heel and presented a clinical condition compatible with mild Bothrops poisoning: local edema with hemorrhage at the bite site and pain, although without coagulopathy.

Analysis of temporal and spatial variations of forest. A case of study in notheastern Armenia

The forest has a crucial ecological role and the continuous forest loss can cause colossal effects on the environment. As Armenia is one of the low forest covered countries in the world, this problem is more critical. Continuous forest disturbances mainly caused by illegal logging started from the early 1990s had a huge damage on the forest ecosystem by decreasing the forest productivity and making more areas vulnerable to erosion. Another aspect of the Armenian forest is the lack of continuous monitoring and absence of accurate estimation of the level of cuts in some years. In order to have insight about the forest and the disturbances in the long period of time we used Landsat TM/ETM + images. Google Earth Engine JavaScript API was used, which is an online tool enabling the access and analysis of a great amount of satellite imagery. To overcome the data availability problem caused by the gap in the Landsat series in 1988- 1998, extensive cloud cover in the study area and the missing scan lines, we used pixel based compositing for the temporal window of leaf on vegetation (June-late September). Subsequently, pixel based linear regression analyses were performed. Vegetation indices derived from the 10 biannual composites for the years 1984-2014 were used for trend analysis. In order to derive the disturbances only in forests, forest cover layer was aggregated and the original composites were masked. It has been found, that around 23% of forests were disturbed during the study period.