Pre-crash traffic flow trend analysis on motorways

Crashes on motorway contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence reduce crashes will help address congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a Short time window around the time of crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists, and that this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with traffic flow data of one hour prior to the crash using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic flow trends (traffic speed/occupancy time series) revealed that crashes could be clustered with regards of the dominant traffic flow pattern prior to the crash. Using the k-means clustering method allowed the crashes to be clustered based on their flow trends rather than their distance. Four major trends have been found in the clustering results. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation algorithms can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic flow conditions with a sliding window of 60 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

Transient air flow and heat transfer in a triangular enclosure with a conducting partition

Numerical investigation is carried out for natural convection heat transfer in an isosceles triangular enclosure partitioned in the centre by a vertical wall with infinite conductivity. A sudden temperature difference between two zones of the enclosure has been imposed to trigger the natural convection. As a result, heat is transferred between both sides of the enclosure through the conducting vertical wall with natural convection boundary layers forming adjacent to the middle partition and two inclined surfaces. The Finite Volume based software, Ansys 14.5 (Fluent) is used for the numerical simulations. The numerical results are obtained for different values of aspect ratio, A (0.2, 0.5 and 1.0) and Rayleigh number, Ra (10^5 <= Ra <= 10^8) for a fixed Prandtl number, Pr = 0.72 of air. It is anticipated from the numerical simulations that the coupled thermal boundary layers development adjacent to the partition undergoes several distinct stages including an initial stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage. Time dependent features of the coupled thermal boundary layers as well as the overall natural convection flow in the partitioned enclosure have been discussed in this study.

Optimal catalyst thickness in titanium dioxide fixed film reactors: Mathematical modelling and experimental validation

The use of immobilised TiO2 for the purification of polluted water streams introduces the necessity to evaluate the effect of mechanisms such as the transport of pollutants from the bulk of the liquid to the catalyst surface and the transport phenomena inside the porous film. Experimental results of the effects of film thickness on the observed reaction rate for both liquid-side and support-side illumination are here compared with the predictions of a one-dimensional mathematical model of the porous photocatalytic slab. Good agreement was observed between the experimentally obtained photodegradation of phenol and its by-products, and the corresponding model predictions. The results have confirmed that an optimal catalyst thickness exists and, for the films employed here, is 5 μm. Furthermore, the modelling results have highlighted the fact that porosity, together with the intrinsic reaction kinetics are the parameters controlling the photocatalytic activity of the film. The former by influencing transport phenomena and light absorption characteristics, the latter by naturally dictating the rate of reaction.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network Framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and Exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an $R^2$ goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 hour test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including real time monitoring and `what-if' analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Correlating flow induced shear stress and chondrocytes activity in micro-porous scaffold using computational fluid dynamics and rapid prototyping

Flow induced shear stress plays an important role in regulating cell growth and distribution in scaffolds. This study sought to correlate wall shear stress and chondrocytes activity for engineering design of micro-porous osteochondral grafts based on the hypothesis that it is possible to capture and discriminate between the transmitted force and cell response at the inner irregularities. Unlike common tissue engineering therapies with perfusion bioreactors in which flow-mediated stress is the controlling parameter, this work assigned the associated stress as a function of porosity to influence in vitro proliferation of chondrocytes. D-optimality criterion was used to accommodate three pore characteristics for appraisal in a mixed level fractional design of experiment (DOE); namely, pore size (4 levels), distribution pattern (2 levels) and density (3 levels). Micro-porous scaffolds (n=12) were fabricated according to the DOE using rapid prototyping of an acrylic-based bio-photopolymer. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were created correspondingly and used on an idealized boundary condition with a Newtonian fluid domain to simulate the dynamic microenvironment inside the pores. In vitro condition was reproduced for the 3D printed constructs seeded by high pellet densities of human chondrocytes and cultured for 72 hours. The results showed that cell proliferation was significantly different in the constructs (p<0.05). Inlet fluid velocity of 3×10-2mms-1 and average shear stress of 5.65×10-2 Pa corresponded with increased cell proliferation for scaffolds with smaller pores in hexagonal pattern and lower densities. Although the analytical solution of a Poiseuille flow inside the pores was found insufficient for the description of the flow profile probably due to the outside flow induced turbulence, it showed that the shear stress would increase with cell growth and decrease with pore size. This correlation demonstrated the basis for determining the relation between the induced stress and chondrocyte activity to optimize microfabrication of engineered cartilaginous constructs.

Numerical modelling of porous injection in a radical farming scramjet

A numerical investigation of the behaviour of fuel injection through a porous surface in an inlet-fuelled, radial-farming scramjet is presented. The performance of porous fuel injection is compared to discrete port hole injection at an equivalence ratio of φ ≈ 0.4 for both cases. The comparison is performed at a Mach 6.5 flow condition with a total specific enthalpy of 4.3 MJ/kg. The numerical results are compared to experiments performed in the T4 shock tunnel where available. The presented results demonstrate for the first time, that porous fuel injection has the potential to outperform port hole injectors in scramjet engines in terms of fuel-air mixing, ignition delays and achievable combustion efficiencies despite reduced fuel penetration heights.

Impinging jet simulation of stationary downburst flow over topography

A non-translating, long duration thunderstorm downburst has been simulated experimentally and numerically by modelling a spatially stationary steady flow impinging air jet. Velocity profiles were shown to compare well with an upper-bound of velocity measurements reported for full-scale microbursts. Velocity speed-up over a range of topographic features in simulated downburst flow was also tested with comparisons made to previous work in a similar flow, and also boundary layer wind tunnel experiments. It was found that the amplification measured above the crest of topographic features in simulated downburst flow was up to 35% less than that observed in boundary layer flow for all shapes tested. From the computational standpoint we conclude that the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model performs the best from amongst a range of eddy-viscosity and second moment closures tested for modelling the impinging jet flow.

Wind pressure measurements on a cube subjected to pulsed impinging jet flow

A pulsed impinging jet is used to simulate the gust front of a thunderstorm downburst. This work concentrates on investigating the peak transient loading conditions on a 30 mm cubic model submerged in the simulated downburst flow. The outflow induced pressures are recorded and compared to those from boundary layer and steady wall jet flow. Given that peak winds associated with downburst events are often located in the transient frontal region, the importance of using a non-stationary modelling technique for assessing peak downburst wind loads is highlighted with comparisons.

Analysis framework for the interaction between lean construction and building information modelling

Building with Building Information Modelling (BIM) changes design and production processes. But can BIM be used to support process changes designed according to lean production and lean construction principles? To begin to answer this question we provide a conceptual analysis of the interaction of lean construction and BIM for improving construction. This was investigated by compiling a detailed listing of lean construction principles and BIM functionalities which are relevant from this perspective. These were drawn from a detailed literature survey. A research framework for analysis of the interaction between lean and BIM was then compiled. The goal of the framework is to both guide and stimulate research; as such, the approach adopted up to this point is constructive. Ongoing research has identified 55 such interactions, the majority of which show positive synergy between the two.

Similarity solutions for flow and heat transfer of non-Newtonian fluid over a stretching surface

Similarity solutions are carried out for flow of power law non-Newtonian fluid film on unsteady stretching surface subjected to constant heat flux. Free convection heat transfer induces thermal boundary layer within a semi-infinite layer of Boussinesq fluid. The nonlinear coupled partial differential equations (PDE) governing the flow and the boundary conditions are converted to a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) using two-parameter groups. This technique reduces the number of independent variables by two, and finally the obtained ordinary differential equations are solved numerically for the temperature and velocity using the shooting method. The thermal and velocity boundary layers are studied by the means of Prandtl number and non-Newtonian power index plotted in curves.

Agent-based modelling simulation case study : assessment of airport check-in and evacuation process by considering group travel behaviour of air passengers

Passenger experience has become a major factor that influences the success of an airport. In this context, passenger flow simulation has been used in designing and managing airports. However, most passenger flow simulations failed to consider the group dynamics when developing passenger flow models. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger behaviour at the airport check-in and evacuation process. The simulation results show that the passenger behaviour can have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Modelling airport passenger group dynamics using an agent-based method

This thesis investigates the influence of passenger group dynamics on passengers' behaviour in an international airport. A simulation model is built to analyse passengers' behaviour during airport departure processes and during an emergency event. Results from the model showed that passengers' group dynamics have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of airport services. The agent-based model also provides a convenient way to investigate the effectiveness of space design and service allocations, which may contribute to the enhancement of passenger airport experiences.

Analysis and modelling of the hydraulic conductivity in aquitards : application to the Galilee Basin and the Great Artesian Basin, Australia

In large sedimentary basins with layers of different rocks, the groundwater flow between aquifers depends on the hydraulic conductivity (K) of the separating low-permeable rocks, or aquitards. Three methods were developed to evaluate K in aquitards for areas with limited field data: • Coherence and harmonic analysis: estimates the regional-scale K based on water-level fluctuations in adjacent aquifers. • Cokriging and Bayes' rule: infers K from downhole geophysical logs. • Fluvial process model: reproduces the lithology architecture of sediment formations which can be converted to K. These proposed methods enable good estimates of K and better planning of further drillholes.

Numerical modelling of an imping jet

Impinging flow occurs when a fluid impacts a comparatively solid boundary upon which divergence occurs. A perfect example of an impinging flow is the impact and divergence of air at ground level during a thunderstorm outflow. The importance of modelling thunderstorm outflows, and in particular the downburst is now well-known to the wind engineering community and research into many of its characteristics is underway throughout the world. The reader is directed to the text by Fujita [I] for an introduction to downburst concepts and theory.