A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

We present the most comprehensive comparison to date of the predictive benefit of genetics in addition to currently used clinical variables, using genotype data for 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,547 Caucasian men from the placebo arm of the REduction by DUtasteride of prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE®) trial. Moreover, we conducted a detailed comparison of three techniques for incorporating genetics into clinical risk prediction. The first method was a standard logistic regression model, which included separate terms for the clinical covariates and for each of the genetic markers. This approach ignores a substantial amount of external information concerning effect sizes for these Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)-replicated SNPs. The second and third methods investigated two possible approaches to incorporating meta-analysed external SNP effect estimates - one via a weighted PCa 'risk' score based solely on the meta analysis estimates, and the other incorporating both the current and prior data via informative priors in a Bayesian logistic regression model. All methods demonstrated a slight improvement in predictive performance upon incorporation of genetics. The two methods that incorporated external information showed the greatest receiver-operating-characteristic AUCs increase from 0.61 to 0.64. The value of our methods comparison is likely to lie in observations of performance similarities, rather than difference, between three approaches of very different resource requirements. The two methods that included external information performed best, but only marginally despite substantial differences in complexity.

Rhythmic growth explained by coincidence between internal and external cues.

Most organisms use circadian oscillators to coordinate physiological and developmental processes such as growth with predictable daily environmental changes like sunrise and sunset. The importance of such coordination is highlighted by studies showing that circadian dysfunction causes reduced fitness in bacteria and plants, as well as sleep and psychological disorders in humans. Plant cell growth requires energy and water-factors that oscillate owing to diurnal environmental changes. Indeed, two important factors controlling stem growth are the internal circadian oscillator and external light levels. However, most circadian studies have been performed in constant conditions, precluding mechanistic study of interactions between the clock and diurnal variation in the environment. Studies of stem elongation in diurnal conditions have revealed complex growth patterns, but no mechanism has been described. Here we show that the growth phase of Arabidopsis seedlings in diurnal light conditions is shifted 8-12 h relative to plants in continuous light, and we describe a mechanism underlying this environmental response. We find that the clock regulates transcript levels of two basic helix-loop-helix genes, phytochrome-interacting factor 4 (PIF4) and PIF5, whereas light regulates their protein abundance. These genes function as positive growth regulators; the coincidence of high transcript levels (by the clock) and protein accumulation (in the dark) allows them to promote plant growth at the end of the night. Thus, these two genes integrate clock and light signalling, and their coordinated regulation explains the observed diurnal growth rhythms. This interaction may serve as a paradigm for understanding how endogenous and environmental signals cooperate to control other processes.

Protecting mobile agents from external replay attacks

Peer-reviewed

Paediatric bi-ventricular external assist device based on artificial muscles

Objective: Existing VADs are single-ventricle pumps needing anticoagulation. We developed a bi ventricular external assist device that reproduces the physiological heart muscle movement completely avoiding anticoagulants. Methods: The device has a carbon fibre skeleton fitting a 30-40 kg patient's heart, to which a Nitinol based artificial muscle is connected. The artificial muscle wraps both ventricles. The strength of the Nitinol fibres is amplified by a pivot articulation in contact with the ventricle wall. The fibres are electrically driven and a dedicated control unit has been developed. We assessed hemodynamic performances of this device using a previously described dedicated bench test. Volume ejected and pressure gradient has been measured with afterload ranging from 25 to 50mmHg. Results: With anafterload of 50mmHg the system has an ejection fraction (EF) of 10% on the right side and 8% on the left side. The system is able to generate a systolic ejection of 5,5 ml on the right side and 4,4 ml on the left side. With anafterload of 25mmHg the results are reduced of about 20%. The activation frequency is 80/minute resulting in a total volume displacement of 440 ml/minute on the right side and 352 ml/minute on the left side. Conclusions: The artificial muscle follows Starling's law as the ejected volume increases when afterload increases. These preliminary studies confirmed the possibility of improving the EF of a failing heart using artificial muscle for external cardiac compression. This device could be helpful in weaning CPB and/or for short-term cardio-circulatory support in paediatric population with cardiac failure.

The use of external mesh reinforcement to reduce intimal hyperplasia and preserve the structure of human saphenous veins.

The saphenous vein is the conduit of choice in bypass graft procedures. Haemodynamic factors play a major role in the development of intimal hyperplasia (IH), and subsequent bypass failure. To evaluate the potential protective effect of external reinforcement on such a failure, we developed an ex vivo model for the perfusion of segments of human saphenous veins under arterial shear stress. In veins submitted to pulsatile high pressure (mean pressure at 100 mmHg) for 3 or 7 days, the use of an external macroporous polyester mesh 1) prevented the dilatation of the vessel, 2) decreased the development of IH, 3) reduced the apoptosis of smooth muscle cells, and the subsequent fibrosis of the media layer, 4) prevented the remodelling of extracellular matrix through the up-regulation of matrix metalloproteinases (MMP-2, MMP-9) and plasminogen activator type I. The data show that, in an experimental ex vivo setting, an external scaffold decreases IH and maintains the integrity of veins exposed to arterial pressure, via increase in shear stress and decrease wall tension, that likely contribute to trigger selective molecular and cellular changes.

Ignition of a human body by a modest external source: a case report.

A case of sustained combustion of a human body that occurred in 2006 in Geneva, Switzerland, is presented. The body of a man was discovered at home and found to have been almost completely incinerated between the knees and the mid-chest, with less damage to the head, arms, lower legs and feet. His dog was also found dead just behind the house door. The external source of ignition was most likely a cigarette or a cigar. The chair in which the man had been sitting was largely consumed while other objects in the room exhibited only a brown oily or greasy coating and were virtually undamaged. Toxicological analyses carried out on the blood from the lower legs showed low levels of desalkylflurazepam. Alcohol concentration was 1.10 per thousand, carboxyhaemoglobin levels were 12% and cyanide concentration was 0.05 mg/L. Toxicological analyses carried out on the dog's blood showed carboxyhaemoglobin levels at 65%.

In vitro evaluation of the temperature increment at the external root surface after Er,Cr: YSGG laser irradiation of the root canal

Objectives: A study was made to determine the temperature increment at the dental root surface following Er,Cr:YSGG laser irradiation of the root canal. Design. Human canines and incisors previously instrumented to K file number ISO 30 were used. Irradiation was carried out with glass fiber endodontic tips measuring 200 μm in diameter and especially designed for insertion in the root canal. The teeth were irradiated at 1 and 2 W for 30 seconds, without water spraying or air, and applying a continuous circular movement (approximately 2 mm/sec.) in the apico-coronal direction. Results: At the 1 W power setting, the mean temperature increment was 3.84ºC versus 5.01ºC at 2 W. In all cases the difference in mean value obtained after irradiation versus the mean baseline temperature proved statistically significant (p< 0.05). Conclusions: Application of the Er,Cr:YSGG laser gives rise to a statistically significant temperature increment at the external root surface, though this increment is probably clinically irrelevant, since it would appear to damage the tissues (periodontal ligament and alveolar bone) in proximity to the treated tooth

External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

Formation and Control of Trace Metal Emissions in Co-Firing of Biomass, Peat, and Wastes in Fluidised Bed Combustors

Environmentally harmful consequences of fossil fuel utilisation andthe landfilling of wastes have increased the interest among the energy producers to consider the use of alternative fuels like wood fuels and Refuse-Derived Fuels, RDFs. The fluidised bed technology that allows the flexible use of a variety of different fuels is commonly used at small- and medium-sized power plants ofmunicipalities and industry in Finland. Since there is only one mass-burn plantcurrently in operation in the country and no intention to build new ones, the co-firing of pre-processed wastes in fluidised bed boilers has become the most generally applied waste-to-energy concept in Finland. The recently validated EU Directive on Incineration of Wastes aims to mitigate environmentally harmful pollutants of waste incineration and co-incineration of wastes with conventional fuels. Apart from gaseous flue gas pollutants and dust, the emissions of toxic tracemetals are limited. The implementation of the Directive's restrictions in the Finnish legislation is assumed to limit the co-firing of waste fuels, due to the insufficient reduction of the regulated air pollutants in the existing flue gas cleaning devices. Trace metals emission formation and reduction in the ESP, the condensing wet scrubber, the fabric filter, and the humidification reactor were studied, experimentally, in full- and pilot-scale combustors utilising the bubbling fluidised bed technology, and, theoretically, by means of reactor model calculations. The core of the model is a thermodynamic equilibrium analysis. The experiments were carried out with wood chips, sawdust, and peat, and their refuse-derived fuel, RDF, blends. In all, ten different fuels or fuel blends were tested. Relatively high concentrations of trace metals in RDFs compared to the concentrations of these metals in wood fuels increased the trace metal concentrations in the flue gas after the boiler ten- to hundred-folds, when RDF was co-fired with sawdust in a full-scale BFB boiler. In the case of peat, lesser increase in trace metal concentrations was observed, due to the higher initial trace metal concentrations of peat compared to sawdust. Despite the high removal rate of most of the trace metals in the ESP, the Directive emission limits for trace metals were exceeded in each of the RDF co-firing tests. The dominat trace metals in fluegas after the ESP were Cu, Pb and Mn. In the condensing wet scrubber, the flue gas trace metal emissions were reduced below the Directive emission limits, whenRDF pellet was used as a co-firing fuel together with sawdust and peat. High chlorine content of the RDFs enhanced the mercuric chloride formation and hence the mercury removal in the ESP and scrubber. Mercury emissions were lower than theDirective emission limit for total Hg, 0.05 mg/Nm3, in all full-scale co-firingtests already in the flue gas after the ESP. The pilot-scale experiments with aBFB combustor equipped with a fabric filter revealed that the fabric filter alone is able to reduce the trace metal concentrations, including mercury, in the flue gas during the RDF co-firing approximately to the same level as they are during the wood chip firing. Lower trace metal emissions than the Directive limits were easily reached even with a 40% thermal share of RDF co-firing with sawdust.Enrichment of trace metals in the submicron fly ash particle fraction because of RDF co-firing was not observed in the test runs where sawdust was used as the main fuel. The combustion of RDF pellets with peat caused an enrichment of As, Cd, Co, Pb, Sb, and V in the submicron particle mode. Accumulation and release oftrace metals in the bed material was examined by means of a bed material analysis, mass balance calculations and a reactor model. Lead, zinc and copper were found to have a tendency to be accumulated in the bed material but also to have a tendency to be released from the bed material into the combustion gases, if the combustion conditions were changed. The concentration of the trace metal in the combustion gases of the bubbling fluidised bed boiler was found to be a summary of trace metal fluxes from three main sources. They were (1) the trace metal flux from the burning fuel particle (2) the trace metal flux from the ash in the bed, and (3) the trace metal flux from the active alkali metal layer on the sand (and ash) particles in the bed. The amount of chlorine in the system, the combustion temperature, the fuel ash composition and the saturation state of the bed material in regard to trace metals were discovered to be key factors affecting therelease process. During the co-firing of waste fuels with variable amounts of e.g. ash and chlorine, it is extremely important to consider the possible ongoingaccumulation and/or release of the trace metals in the bed, when determining the flue gas trace metal emissions. If the state of the combustion process in regard to trace metals accumulation and/or release in the bed material is not known,it may happen that emissions from the bed material rather than the combustion of the fuel in question are measured and reported.

Effect of prestorage curing on storage life, internal and external qualities of sweet orange (Citrus sinensis)

Orange fruits from two seasons, in April and August 2006 representing late 2005 and early 2006 harvests respectively were cured in hot air at 36-37(0)C to 1%, 3%, 5% and 7% weight loss before storage at 28(0)C and 86% relative humidity (RH). The fruits were observed for incidence of decay, further weight loss, juice content, firmness or softening of the peel, total soluble solids (TSS), pH, titratable acidity, and colour during storage. Curing reduced the incidence of decay. All control fruits were rotten by day 21 in August harvest while 22.5% of the control was rotten by day 56 in the April harvest. Storage life was extended beyond 56 days in fruits cured with 1, 3, 5 and 7% in April harvest as there was no decay throughout, while decay incidence in August harvest was 88.9, 61.1, 22.2 and 31.3% in 1, 3, 5 and 7% respectively. Penicillium digitatum, Phytophthora sp., Alternaria citri and Collectotrichum gloeosporioides were among decay causing moulds detected. Control fruits lost more weight during storage than cured fruits did. Fruit rind hardening was more noticed in the control and those cured to 1% weight loss, especially from the April harvest. It was insignificant in other treatments in both trials. Titratable acidity, pH, juice content and TSS were not affected by the treatment. Colour change to yellow was however retarded by curing. Curing to 5% weight loss was best for decay control and quality retention.

Spontaneous Emergence of Chirality in the Limited Enantioselectivity Model: Autocatalytic Cycle Driven by an External Reagent

The emergence of chirality in enantioselective autocatalysis for compounds unable to transform according to the Frank-like reaction network is discussed with respect to the controversial limited enantioselectivity (LES) model composed of coupled enantioselective and non-enantioselective autocatalyses. The LES model cannot lead to spontaneous mirror symmetry breaking (SMSB) either in closed systems with a homogeneous temperature distribution or in closed systems with a stationary non-uniform temperature distribution. However, simulations of chemical kinetics in a two-compartment model demonstrate that SMSB may occur if both autocatalytic reactions are spatially separated at different temperatures in different compartments but coupled under the action of a continuous internal flow. In such conditions, the system can evolve, for certain reaction and system parameters, toward a chiral stationary state; that is, the system is able to reach a bifurcation point leading to SMSB. Numerical simulations in which reasonable chemical parameters have been used suggest that an adequate scenario for such a SMSB would be that of abyssal hydrothermal vents, by virtue of the typical temperature gradients found there and the role of inorganic solids mediating chemical reactions in an enzyme-like role.

Disc Filter External Models in an Integrated Simulation Environment

Työssä tutkittiin kiekkosuodattimeen liittyviä ulkoisia simulointimalleja integroidussa simulointiympäristössä. Työn tarkoituksena oli parantaa olemassa olevaa mekanistista kiekkosuodatinmallia. Malli laadittiin dynaamiseen paperiteollisuuden tarpeisiin tehtyyn simulaattoriin (APMS), jossa olevaan alkuperäiseen mekanistiseen malliin tehtiin ulkoinen lisämalli, joka käyttää hyväkseen kiekkosuodatinvalmistajan mittaustuloksia. Laitetiedon saatavuutta suodattimien käyttäjille parannettiin luomalla Internetissä sijaitsevalle palvelimelle kiekkosuodattimen laitetietomäärittelyt. Suodatinvalmistaja voi palvella asiakkaitaan viemällä laitetiedot palvelimelle ja yhdistämällä laitetiedon simulointimalliin. Tämä on mahdollista Internetin ylitse käytettävän integroidun simulointiympäristön avulla, jonka on tarkoitus kokonaisvaltaisesti yhdistää simulointi ja prosessisuunnittelu. Suunnittelijalle tarjotaan työkalut, joilla dynaaminen simulointi, tasesimulointi ja kaavioiden piirtäminen onnistuu prosessilaitetiedon ollessa saatavilla. Nämä työkalut on tarkoitus toteuttaa projektissa nimeltä Galleria, jossa luodaan prosessimalli- ja laitetietopalvelin Internetiin. Gallerian käyttöliittymän avulla prosessisuunnittelija voi käyttää erilaisia simulointiohjelmistoja ja niihin luotuja valmiita malleja, sekä saada käsiinsä ajan tasalla olevaa laitetietoa. Ulkoinen kiekkosuodatinmalli laskee suodosvirtaamat ja suodosten pitoisuudet likaiselle, kirkkaalle ja superkirkkaalle suodokselle. Mallin syöttöparametrit ovat kiekkojen pyörimisnopeus, sisään tulevan syötön pitoisuus, suotautuvuus (freeness) ja säätöparametri, jolla säädetään likaisen ja kirkkaan suodoksen keskinäinen suhde. Suotautuvuus kertoo mistä massasta on kyse. Mitä suurempi suotautuvuus on, sitä paremmin massa suodattuu ja sitä puhtaampia suodokset yleensä ovat. Mallin parametrit viritettiin regressioanalyysillä ja valmistajan palautetta apuna käyttäen. Käyttäjä voi valita haluaako hän käyttää ulkoista vai alkuperäistä mallia. Alkuperäinen malli täytyy ensin alustaa antamalla sille nominaaliset toimintapisteet virtaamille ja pitoisuuksille tietyllä pyörimisnopeudella. Ulkoisen mallin yhtälöitä voi käyttää alkuperäisen mallin alustamiseen, jos alkuperäinen malli toimii ulkoista paremmin. Ulkoista mallia voi käyttää myös ilman simulointiohjelmaa Galleria-palvelimelta käsin. Käyttäjälle avautuu näin mahdollisuus tarkastella kiekkosuodattimien parametreja ja nähdä suotautumistulokset oman työasemansa ääreltä mistä tahansa, kunhan Internetyhteys on olemassa. Työn tuloksena kiekkosuodattimien laitetiedon saatavuus käyttäjille parani ja alkuperäisen simulointimallin rajoituksia ja puutteita vähennettiin.

Lämmöntalteenottokattilan kehittäminen kaasumoottoreille ja teollisuuskaasuturbiineille

Tässä diplomityössä on kehitetty kustannustehokas lämmöntalteenottokattila savukaasun virtaukselle alle 150 kg/s. Kehitettävä kattila on luonnonkiertoinen ja pystyrakenteinen. Valitun kattilatyypin etuja muihin kattilatyyppeihin nähden on tarkasteltu. Erityistä huomiota kattilassa on kiinnitetty vedenkäsittelyn yksinkertaistamiseen. Tämä on saavutettu tulistinratkaisulla, jonka säätötarve on vähäinen. Tuorehöyryn lämpötilan säätöön käytettyjä säätömenetelmiä on tarkasteltu ja eri tulistinratkaisuja käyttämällä saavutettavia tuorehöyrymääriä ja säätötarvetta on tutkittu simulointiohjelmaa hyväksi käyttäen. Tulistinratkaisun lisäksi työssä on tarkasteltu syöttöveden käyttöä ulkoiseen lämmitykseen sekä lämmönsiirrinpakettien tuentaa. Lisäpolton toteutusta sekä syöttövesiventtiilin sijoittamista ja syöttövesipumpun valintaa on myös tarkasteltu. Osana työtä on lisäksi tehty kehitettyä kattilaa varten mitoitusohjelma ja mitoitettu sitä käyttäen esimerkkilaitos.