Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

A Compact Formula for the Derivative of a 3-D Rotation in Exponential Coordinates

We present a compact formula for the derivative of a 3-D rotation matrix with respect to its exponential coordinates. A geometric interpretation of the resulting expression is provided, as well as its agreement with other less-compact but better-known formulas. To the best of our knowledge, this simpler formula does not appear anywhere in the literature. We hope by providing this more compact expression to alleviate the common pressure to reluctantly resort to alternative representations in various computational applications simply as a means to avoid the complexity of differential analysis in exponential coordinates.

New infinite families of exact sums of squares formulas, Jacobi elliptic functions, and Ramanujan’s tau function

In this paper, we give two infinite families of explicit exact formulas that generalize Jacobi’s (1829) 4 and 8 squares identities to 4n2 or 4n(n + 1) squares, respectively, without using cusp forms. Our 24 squares identity leads to a different formula for Ramanujan’s tau function τ(n), when n is odd. These results arise in the setting of Jacobi elliptic functions, Jacobi continued fractions, Hankel or Turánian determinants, Fourier series, Lambert series, inclusion/exclusion, Laplace expansion formula for determinants, and Schur functions. We have also obtained many additional infinite families of identities in this same setting that are analogous to the η-function identities in appendix I of Macdonald’s work [Macdonald, I. G. (1972) Invent. Math. 15, 91–143]. A special case of our methods yields a proof of the two conjectured [Kac, V. G. and Wakimoto, M. (1994) in Progress in Mathematics, eds. Brylinski, J.-L., Brylinski, R., Guillemin, V. & Kac, V. (Birkhäuser Boston, Boston, MA), Vol. 123, pp. 415–456] identities involving representing a positive integer by sums of 4n2 or 4n(n + 1) triangular numbers, respectively. Our 16 and 24 squares identities were originally obtained via multiple basic hypergeometric series, Gustafson’s Cℓ nonterminating 6φ5 summation theorem, and Andrews’ basic hypergeometric series proof of Jacobi’s 4 and 8 squares identities. We have (elsewhere) applied symmetry and Schur function techniques to this original approach to prove the existence of similar infinite families of sums of squares identities for n2 or n(n + 1) squares, respectively. Our sums of more than 8 squares identities are not the same as the formulas of Mathews (1895), Glaisher (1907), Ramanujan (1916), Mordell (1917, 1919), Hardy (1918, 1920), Kac and Wakimoto, and many others.

The Malthusian parameter of ascents: What prevents the exponential increase of one’s ancestors?

The reason that the indefinite exponential increase in the number of one’s ancestors does not take place is found in the law of sibling interference, which can be expressed by the following simple equation:\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}\begin{matrix}{\mathit{N}}_{{\mathit{n}}} \enskip & \\ {\mathit{{\blacksquare}}} \enskip & \\ {\mathit{ASZ}} \enskip & \end{matrix} {\mathrm{\hspace{.167em}{\times}\hspace{.167em}2\hspace{.167em}=\hspace{.167em}}}{\mathit{N_{n+1},}}\end{equation*}\end{document} where Nn is the number of ancestors in the nth generation, ASZ is the average sibling size of these ancestors, and Nn+1 is the number of ancestors in the next older generation (n + 1). Accordingly, the exponential increase in the number of one’s ancestors is an initial anomaly that occurs while ASZ remains at 1. Once ASZ begins to exceed 1, the rate of increase in the number of ancestors is progressively curtailed, falling further and further behind the exponential increase rate. Eventually, ASZ reaches 2, and at that point, the number of ancestors stops increasing for two generations. These two generations, named AN SA and AN SA + 1, are the most critical in the ancestry, for one’s ancestors at that point come to represent all the progeny-produced adults of the entire ancestral population. Thereafter, the fate of one’s ancestors becomes the fate of the entire population. If the population to which one belongs is a successful, slowly expanding one, the number of ancestors would slowly decline as you move toward the remote past. This is because ABZ would exceed 2. Only when ABZ is less than 2 would the number of ancestors increase beyond the AN SA and AN SA + 1 generations. Since the above is an indication of a failing population on the way to extinction, there had to be the previous AN SA involving a far greater number of individuals for such a population. Simulations indicated that for a member of a continuously successful population, the AN SA ancestors might have numbered as many as 5.2 million, the AN SA generation being the 28th generation in the past. However, because of the law of increasingly irrelevant remote ancestors, only a very small fraction of the AN SA ancestors would have left genetic traces in the genome of each descendant of today.

Exponential increases of RNA virus fitness during large population transmissions.

The great adaptability shown by RNA viruses is a consequence of their high mutation rates. Here we investigate the kinetics of virus fitness gains during repeated transfers of large virus populations in cell culture. Results always show that fitness increases exponentially. Low fitness clones exhibit regular increases observed as biphasic periods of exponential evolutionary improvement, while neutral clones show monophasic kinetics. These results are significant for RNA virus epidemiology, optimal handling of attenuated live virus vaccines, and routine laboratory procedures.