Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statin therapy using different scoring systems in Europe: a population-based study in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10- year CHD risk. We compared the 10-year CHD risk assessments and eligibility percentages for statin therapy using three scoring algorithms currently used in Europe. METHODS: We studied 5683 women and men, aged 35-75, without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), in a population-based study in Switzerland. We compared the 10-year CHD risk using three scoring schemes, i.e., the Framingham risk score (FRS) from the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the PROCAM scoring scheme from the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the European risk SCORE for low-risk countries, without and with extrapolation to 60 years as recommended by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (ESC). With FRS and PROCAM, high-risk was defined as a 10- year risk of fatal or non-fatal CHD>20% and a 10-year risk of fatal CVD≥5% with SCORE. We compared the proportions of high-risk participants and eligibility for statin use according to these three schemes. For each guideline, we estimated the impact of increased statin use from current partial compliance to full compliance on potential CHD deaths averted over 10 years, using a success proportion of 27% for statins. RESULTS: Participants classified at high-risk (both genders) were 5.8% according to FRS and 3.0% to the PROCAM, whereas the European risk SCORE classified 12.5% at high-risk (15.4% with extrapolation to 60 years). For the primary prevention of CHD, 18.5% of participants were eligible for statin therapy using ATP III, 16.6% using IAS, and 10.3% using ESC (13.0% with extrapolation) because ESC guidelines recommend statin therapy only in high-risk subjects. In comparison with IAS, agreement to identify eligible adults for statins was good with ATP III, but moderate with ESC. Using a population perspective, a full compliance with ATP III guidelines would reduce up to 17.9% of the 24′ 310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, 17.3% with IAS and 10.8% with ESC (11.5% with extrapolation). CONCLUSIONS: Full compliance with guidelines for statin therapy would result in substantial health benefits, but proportions of high-risk adults and eligible adults for statin use varied substantially depending on the scoring systems and corresponding guidelines used for estimating CHD risk in Europe.

Which subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis benefits from switching to rituximab versus alternative anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents after previous failure of an anti-TNF agent?

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with an inadequate response to TNF antagonists (aTNFs) may switch to an alternative aTNF or start treatment from a different class of drugs, such as rituximab (RTX). It remains unclear in which clinical settings these therapeutic strategies offer most benefit. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effectiveness of RTX versus alternative aTNFs on RA disease activity in different subgroups of patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of patients with RA who discontinued at least one aTNF and subsequently received either RTX or an alternative aTNF, nested within the Swiss RA registry (SCQM-RA) was carried out. The primary outcome, longitudinal improvement in 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28), was analysed using multivariate regression models for longitudinal data and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 318 patients with RA included; 155 received RTX and 163 received an alternative aTNF. The relative benefit of RTX varied with the type of prior aTNF failure: when the motive for switching was ineffectiveness to previous aTNFs, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was significantly better with RTX than with an alternative aTNF (p = 0.03; at 6 months, -1.34 (95% CI -1.54 to -1.15) vs -0.93 (95% CI -1.28 to -0.59), respectively). When the motive for switching was other causes, the longitudinal improvement in DAS28 was similar for RTX and alternative aTNFs (p = 0.40). These results were not significantly modified by the number of previous aTNF failures, the type of aTNF switches, or the presence of co-treatment with a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. CONCLUSION: This observational study suggests that in patients with RA who have stopped a previous aTNF treatment because of ineffectiveness changing to RTX is more effective than switching to an alternative aTNF.

The regional employment impacts of renewable energy expenditures: The case for modelling

One aspect of the case for policy support for renewable energy developments is the wider economic benefits that are expected to be generated. Within Scotland, as with other regions of the UK, there is a focus on encouraging domestically‐based renewable technologies. In this paper, we use a regional computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact on the Scottish economy of expenditures relating to marine energy installations. The results illustrate the potential for (considerable) ‘legacy’ effects after expenditures cease. In identifying the specific sectoral expenditures with the largest impact on (lifetime) regional employment, this approach offers important policy guidance.

The regional employment impacts of renewable energy expenditures: The case for modelling

One aspect of the case for policy support for renewable energy developments is the wider economic benefits that are expected to be generated. Within Scotland, as with other regions of the UK, there is a focus on encouraging domestically‐based renewable technologies. In this paper, we use a regional computable general equilibrium framework to model the impact on the Scottish economy of expenditures relating to marine energy installations. The results illustrate the potential for (considerable) ‘legacy’ effects after expenditures cease. In identifying the specific sectoral expenditures with the largest impact on (lifetime) regional employment, this approach offers important policy guidance.

The system-wide impacts of the external benefits to higher education on the Scottish economy: An exploratory “micro-to-macro” approach

The private market benefits of education, i.e. the wage premia of graduates, are widely studied at the micro level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education, which are less well understood but could potentially drive significant macroeconomic impacts. Following the taxonomy of McMahon (2009) we identify four different types of benefits of education. These are: private market benefits (wage premia); private non market benefits (own health, happiness, etc.); external market benefits (productivity spillovers; and external non-market benefits (crime rates, civic society, democratisation, etc.). Drawing on available microeconometric evidence we use a micro-to-macro simulation approach (Hermannsson et al, 2010) to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of external benefits of higher education. We explore four cases: technology spillovers from HEIs; productivity spillovers from more skilled workers in the labour market; reduction in property crime; and the potential overall impact of external and private non-market benefits. Our results suggest that the external economic benefits of higher education could potentially be very large. However, given the dearth of microeconomic evidence this result should be seen as tentative. Our aim is to illustrate the links from education to the wider economy in principle and encourage further research in the field.

Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

Switching between apparently redundant iron-uptake mechanisms benefits bacteria in changeable environments.

Bacteria often possess multiple siderophore-based iron uptake systems for scavenging this vital resource from their environment. However, some siderophores seem redundant, because they have limited iron-binding efficiency and are seldom expressed under iron limitation. Here, we investigate the conundrum of why selection does not eliminate this apparent redundancy. We focus on Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a bacterium that can produce two siderophores-the highly efficient but metabolically expensive pyoverdine, and the inefficient but metabolically cheap pyochelin. We found that the bacteria possess molecular mechanisms to phenotypically switch from mainly producing pyoverdine under severe iron limitation to mainly producing pyochelin when iron is only moderately limited. We further show that strains exclusively producing pyochelin grew significantly better than strains exclusively producing pyoverdine under moderate iron limitation, whereas the inverse was seen under severe iron limitation. This suggests that pyochelin is not redundant, but that switching between siderophore strategies might be beneficial to trade off efficiencies versus costs of siderophores. Indeed, simulations parameterized from our data confirmed that strains retaining the capacity to switch between siderophores significantly outcompeted strains defective for one or the other siderophore under fluctuating iron availabilities. Finally, we discuss how siderophore switching can be viewed as a form of collective decision-making, whereby a coordinated shift in behaviour at the group level emerges as a result of positive and negative feedback loops operating among individuals at the local scale.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

New Horizons in Forensic Imaging: Post Mortem CT Angiography - Benefits and Practical Application.

Puropse/Aim: To learn about the developement of post mortem CT angiography, its indications, benefits, pitfalls and practical application. Content Organization: A. Developement of post mortem CT angiography B. Technical prerequisites C. Practical application of post mortem CT angiography (preparation of the body, injection of contrast agent, examination protocol) D. Indications and benefits (including a comparison with conventional autopsy) E. Interpretation of imaging data (with case demonstrations) F. Artifacts, pitfalls and limitations G. Current and potential future use. Summary: This exhibit demonstrates the developement, application and interpretation of post mortem CT angiography. Teaching points: 1. post mortem CT angiography is feasible and useful for identification of the cause of death 2. depending on the indication it can be superior to autopsy 3. limitations and artifacts need to be known for interpreta

Second-hand tobacco smoke in prison: tackling a public health matter through research.

OBJECTIVES: This action-research study conducted in a Swiss male post-trial detention centre (120 detainees and 120 staff) explored the attitudes of detainees and staff towards tobacco smoking. Tackling public health matters through research involving stakeholders in prisons implies benefits and risks that need exploration. STUDY DESIGN: The observational study involved multiple strands (quantitative and qualitative components, and air quality measurements). This article presents qualitative data on participants' attitudes and expectations about research in a prison setting. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were used to explore the attitudes of detainees and staff towards smoking before and after a smoke-free regulation change in the prison in 2009. Specific coding and thematic content analysis for research were performed with the support of ATLAS.ti. RESULTS: In total, 77 interviews were conducted (38 before the regulation change and 39 after the regulation change) with 31 detainees (mean age 35 years, range 22-60 years) and 27 prison staff (mean age 46 years, range 29-65 years). Both detainees and staff expressed satisfaction regarding their involvement in the study, and wished to be informed about the results. They expected concrete changes in smoke-free regulation, and that the research would help to find ways to motivate detainees to quit smoking. CONCLUSION: Active involvement of stakeholders promotes public health. Interviewing detainees and prison staff as part of an action-research study aimed at tackling a public health matter is a way of raising awareness and facilitating change in prisons. Research needs to be conducted independently from the prison administrators in order to increase trust and to avoid misunderstandings.

Eligibility for statin therapy in primary prevention: discrepancies using different guidelines in a population-based study in Switzerland

Introduction: Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10-year CHD risk. We compared the 10-year CHD risk assessments and eligibility percentages for statin therapy using three scoring algorithms currently used in Switzerland. Methods: We studied 5683 women and men, aged 35-75, without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), in a population-based study in Lausanne, Switzerland. We compared the 10-year CHD risk using three scoring schemes, i.e., the Framingham risk score (FRS) from the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the PROCAM scoring scheme from the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the European risk SCORE for low-risk countries, without and with extrapolation to 60 years as recommended by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (ESC). With FRS and PROCAM, high-risk was defined as a 10-year risk of fatal or non-fatal CHD >20% and a 10-year risk of fatal CVD >= 5% with SCORE. We compared the proportions of high-risk participants and eligibility for statin use according to these three schemes. For each guideline, we estimated the impact of increased statin use from current partial compliance to full compliance on potential CHD deaths averted over 10 years, using a success proportion of 27% for statins. Results: Participants classified at high-risk (both genders) were 5.8% according to FRS and 3.0% to the PROCAM, whereas the European risk SCORE classified 12.5% at high-risk (15.4% with extrapolation to 60 years). For the primary prevention of CHD, 18.5% of participants were eligible for statin therapy using ATP III, 16.6% using IAS, and 10.3% using ESC (13.0% with extrapolation) because ESC guidelines recommend statin therapy only in high-risk subjects. In comparison with IAS, agreement to identify eligible adults for statins was good with ATP III, but moderate with ESC (Figure). Using a population perspective, a full compliance with ATP III guidelines would reduce up to 17.9% of the 24'310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, 17.3% with IAS and 10.8% with ESC (11.5% with extrapolation). Conclusion: Full compliance with guidelines for statin therapy would result in substantial health benefits, but proportions of high-risk adults and eligible adults for statin use varied substantially depending on the scoring systems and corresponding guidelines used for estimating CHD risk in Switzerland.

Clinical benefits of an adherence monitoring program in the management of secondary hyperparathyroidism with cinacalcet: results of a prospective randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: One of the causes of uncontrolled secondary hyperparathyroidism (sHPT) is patient's poor drug adherence. We evaluated the clinical benefits of an integrated care approach on the control of sHPT by cinacalcet. METHODS: Prospective, randomized, controlled, multicenter, open-label study. Fifty hemodialysis patients on a stable dose of cinacalcet were randomized to an integrated care approach (IC) or usual care approach (UC). In the IC group, cinacalcet adherence was monitored using an electronic system. Results were discussed with the patients in motivational interviews, and drug prescription adapted accordingly. In the UC group, drug adherence was monitored, but results were not available. RESULTS: At six months, 84% of patients in the IC group achieved recommended iPTH targets versus 55% in the UC group (P = 0.04). The mean cinacalcet taking adherence improved by 10.8% in the IC group and declined by 5.3% in the UC group (P = 0.02). Concomitantly, the mean dose of cinacalcet was reduced by 7.2 mg/day in the IC group and increased by 6.4 mg/day in the UC group (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The use of a drug adherence monitoring program in the management of sHPT in hemodialysis patients receiving cinacalcet improves drug adherence and iPTH control and allows a reduction in the dose of cinacalcet.

Partnerships: The benefits

The Research and Development Office for Health and Personal Social Services in Northern Ireland funded the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) to undertake research into partnerships between 2003 and 2006, as part of their New Targeting Social Need programme. The aim of the research was to identify the impacts of multisectoral partnerships, how they can be measured, and what contribution they make to tackling inequalities in health. This document is one of a suite of three produced as a result of this work.

A Health Economics Model. The cost benefits of the Physical Activity Strategy for Northern Ireland - a summary of key findings

This summary report follows on from the publication of the Northern Ireland physical activity strategy in 1996 and the subsequent publication of the strategy action plan in 1998. Within this strategy action plan a recommendation was made for the health sector, that research should be carried out to evaluate and compare the cost of investing in physical activity programmes against the cost of treating preventable illness. To help in the development of this key area, the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety's Economics Branch agreed to develop a model that would seek to establish the extent of avoidable deaths from physical inactivity and, as a consequence, the avoidable economic and healthcare costs for Northern Ireland.