1000 resultados para epidemie, trasmissione malattie infettive, modelli matematici grafi network


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We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Second-order phase locked loops (PLLs) are devices that are able to provide synchronization between the nodes in a network even under severe quality restrictions in the signal propagation. Consequently, they are widely used in telecommunication and control. Conventional master-slave (M-S) clock-distribution systems are being, replaced by mutually connected (MC) ones due to their good potential to be used in new types of application such as wireless sensor networks, distributed computation and communication systems. Here, by using an analytical reasoning, a nonlinear algebraic system of equations is proposed to establish the existence conditions for the synchronous state in an MC PLL network. Numerical experiments confirm the analytical results and provide ideas about how the network parameters affect the reachability of the synchronous state. The phase-difference oscillation amplitudes are related to the node parameters helping to design PLL neural networks. Furthermore, estimation of the acquisition time depending on the node parameters allows the performance evaluation of time distribution systems and neural networks based on phase-locked techniques. (c) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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The discrete-time neural network proposed by Hopfield can be used for storing and recognizing binary patterns. Here, we investigate how the performance of this network on pattern recognition task is altered when neurons are removed and the weights of the synapses corresponding to these deleted neurons are divided among the remaining synapses. Five distinct ways of distributing such weights are evaluated. We speculate how this numerical work about synaptic compensation may help to guide experimental studies on memory rehabilitation interventions.

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The Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems (BRASILFOODS) has been keeping the Brazilian Food Composition Database-USP (TBCA-USP) (http://www.fcf.usp.br/tabela) since 1998. Besides the constant compilation, analysis and update work in the database, the network tries to innovate through the introduction of food information that may contribute to decrease the risk for non-transmissible chronic diseases, such as the profile of carbohydrates and flavonoids in foods. In 2008, data on carbohydrates, individually analyzed, of 112 foods, and 41 data related to the glycemic response produced by foods widely consumed in the country were included in the TBCA-USP. Data (773) about the different flavonoid subclasses of 197 Brazilian foods were compiled and the quality of each data was evaluated according to the USDAs data quality evaluation system. In 2007, BRASILFOODS/USP and INFOODS/FAO organized the 7th International Food Data Conference ""Food Composition and Biodiversity"". This conference was a unique opportunity for interaction between renowned researchers and participants from several countries and it allowed the discussion of aspects that may improve the food composition area. During the period, the LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee and BRASILFOODS disseminated to Latin America the Form and Manual for Data Compilation, version 2009, ministered a Food Composition Data Compilation course and developed many activities related to data production and compilation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Brazilian social thought draws on the inspiration of past masters the common denominator of whose work is probably a deep humanism. Confronting the challenges of a fluid, ever-changing reality is now a matter of survival. The idea of climate change has made the environment, long relegated to second place, a matter of much wider interest and concern. The other great problem is poverty, and here, while there have been undeniable advances, much remains to be done. The main challenge is producing forms of social organization that will allow ordinary citizens to have an impact on what really matters. Developing policy in these areas has engaged the efforts of a wide range of experts from a variety of fields. Whereas university-educated intellectuals once formed an intelligentsia, today they are engaged in practical politics and much more often function as agents who link social actors together than as mere elaborators of theories.

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Quasi-birth-and-death (QBD) processes with infinite “phase spaces” can exhibit unusual and interesting behavior. One of the simplest examples of such a process is the two-node tandem Jackson network, with the “phase” giving the state of the first queue and the “level” giving the state of the second queue. In this paper, we undertake an extensive analysis of the properties of this QBD. In particular, we investigate the spectral properties of Neuts’s R-matrix and show that the decay rate of the stationary distribution of the “level” process is not always equal to the convergence norm of R. In fact, we show that we can obtain any decay rate from a certain range by controlling only the transition structure at level zero, which is independent of R. We also consider the sequence of tandem queues that is constructed by restricting the waiting room of the first queue to some finite capacity, and then allowing this capacity to increase to infinity. We show that the decay rates for the finite truncations converge to a value, which is not necessarily the decay rate in the infinite waiting room case. Finally, we show that the probability that the process hits level n before level 0 given that it starts in level 1 decays at a rate which is not necessarily the same as the decay rate for the stationary distribution.

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This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The conventional analysis for the estimation of the tortuosity factor for transport in porous media is modified here to account for the effect of pore aspect ratio. Structural models of the porous medium are also constructed for calculating the aspect ratio as a function of porosity. Comparison of the model predictions with the extensive data of Currie (1960) for the effective diffusivity of hydrogen in packed beds shows good agreement with a network model of randomly oriented intersecting pores for porosities upto about 50 percent, which is the region of practical interest. The predictions based on this network model are also found to be in better agreement with the data of Currie than earlier expressions developed for unconsolidated and grainy media.

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Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

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An analytical approach to the stress development in the coherent dendritic network during solidification is proposed. Under the assumption that stresses are developed in the network as a result of the friction resisting shrinkage-induced interdendritic fluid flow, the model predicts the stresses in the solid. The calculations reflect the expected effects of postponed dendrite coherency, slower solidification conditions, and variations of eutectic volume fraction and shrinkage. Comparing the calculated stresses to the measured shear strength of equiaxed mushy zones shows that it is possible for the stresses to exceed the strength, thereby resulting in reorientation or collapse of the dendritic network.

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This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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High performance video codec is mandatory for multimedia applications such as video-on-demand and video conferencing. Recent research has proposed numerous video coding techniques to meet the requirement in bandwidth, delay, loss and Quality-of-Service (QoS). In this paper, we present our investigations on inter-subband self-similarity within the wavelet-decomposed video frames using neural networks, and study the performance of applying the spatial network model to all video frames over time. The goal of our proposed method is to restore the highest perceptual quality for video transmitted over a highly congested network. Our contributions in this paper are: (1) A new coding model with neural network based, inter-subband redundancy (ISR) prediction for video coding using wavelet (2) The performance of 1D and 2D ISR prediction, including multiple levels of wavelet decompositions. Our result shows a short-term quality enhancement may be obtained using both 1D and 2D ISR prediction.

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Through the study of the action of the inquisition commissioners, this article seeks to reveal the relations between the Portuguese Inquisition and the ecclesiastical structure of the Minas Gerais State Captaincy in the colonial period. The focus of the analysis will be the making and the action of the network of Holy Inquisition commissioners in the gold Captaincy. What was the profile of these commissioners? How were they recruited from the local ecclesiastical hierarchy? What was the role assigned to them in the inquisitional action that took place in Minas Gerais? How did they act? What was the relationship between the introduction of the commissioners into the local ecclesiastical structures and the commissioners` inquisitorial activities?