Delivery of the Sox9 gene promotes chondrogenic differentiation of human umbilical cord blood-derived mesenchymal stem cells in an in vitro model

SRY-related high-mobility-group box 9 (Sox9) gene is a cartilage-specific transcription factor that plays essential roles in chondrocyte differentiation and cartilage formation. The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of genetic delivery of Sox9 to enhance chondrogenic differentiation of human umbilical cord blood-derived mesenchymal stem cells (hUC-MSCs). After they were isolated from human umbilical cord blood within 24 h after delivery of neonates, hUC-MSCs were untreated or transfected with a human Sox9-expressing plasmid or an empty vector. The cells were assessed for morphology and chondrogenic differentiation. The isolated cells with a fibroblast-like morphology in monolayer culture were positive for the MSC markers CD44, CD105, CD73, and CD90, but negative for the differentiation markers CD34, CD45, CD19, CD14, or major histocompatibility complex class II. Sox9 overexpression induced accumulation of sulfated proteoglycans, without altering the cellular morphology. Immunocytochemistry demonstrated that genetic delivery of Sox9 markedly enhanced the expression of aggrecan and type II collagen in hUC-MSCs compared with empty vector-transfected counterparts. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction analysis further confirmed the elevation of aggrecan and type II collagen at the mRNA level in Sox9-transfected cells. Taken together, short-term Sox9 overexpression facilitates chondrogenesis of hUC-MSCs and may thus have potential implications in cartilage tissue engineering.

Behavioural, mensural, and ecological correlates of polygyny in the eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna)

During 1982 and 1983 I studied male attributes and attributes of the territory of male Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna) in order to determine whether there was a correlation between any of the attributes investigated and the number of females attracted by a male. Seventeen males, nine of which were polygynous and eight monogamous, were studied in 1982 and sixteen males.of which .. seven were polygynous and nine ~onogamous, were studied in 1983. The study was conducted in Short Hills Park, 10 km southwest of St. Catharines, Ontario and was designed to compare two hypotheses: the "sexy son" hypothesis (Weatherhead and Robertson,1977) and the polygyny threshold model (Verner and Willson,1966, Orians, 1969). Male attributes investigated were male size and song behaviour. Six measures of male size were taken: weight, flattened and natural wing chord length, culmen length, bill depth and length of the tarsometatarsus. In 1983 song repertoire size and song versatility measures were investigated. Attributes of the territory studied were: territory size, density of plant stems, percentage plant cover and measures of vegetation structure. In 1983 Arthropods were collected from each territory and sorted according to taxonomic group and size. During 1983, territory attributes were sampled twice, once early and once later in the nesting season. Analysis of data involved univariate comparisons between monogamous and polygynous males using T-tests and multivariate comparisons were made using discriminant function analysis (DFA) and principle components analysis (PCA).No correlations were found between the number of females attracted with, .ny measure of male size or with me, .sures of song versatili or size of song repertoire. Also no correlation was found between terri size and the number of females nesting on a terri . Some attributes of the male's terri id distinguish between monog,mous and po s males of thistudy. Analysis of Arthropod numbers showed that e~ .eran counts were significantly great~r on polygynous territories, a1 the total numb~rs of Arthropods collected showed no s fico .nt differences between territories of monogamous and po males. DFA chose ear teran and Hymenopteran counts as multivariate discriminators; both variables we' e more vegetation revealed that there were no univariate differences between the two groups of males fOT 1982 stem densities, but ~ spp. and Solidago spp. were chosen DFA as multivariate discriminators. The total number of plant stems and of Vicia spp. stems were s ficantly the early 1983 ing on monogamous territories for however DFA found no multivariate discriminators" Variables concerned with the overall aspects of vegetation structure showed significant differences between territories of monogamous and polygynous males. DFA of the 1982 sampling of vegetation structure showed significantly greater mat depth and vegetation height on polygynous territories, a finding which was not supported, however, by peA. For the early 1983 sampling period, plant height was greater on polygynous territories. Multivariate analysis identified greater green cover on polygynous territories, greater ground cover on monogamous territories, and greater depth of mat material on monogamous territories as discriminators between territories of monogamous and polygynous males. A DFA on the major variables of the study showed no significant difference between the territories of monogamous and polygynous male Meadowlarks. Of the correlations found, some were for non-prey Arthr~ods, for cover plants with very small samples sizes, or for variables which were greater for monogamous males during one sampling period and polygynous males during the next. While multivariate discriminators were found, peA showed no grouping of monogamous or polygynous males according to any of the variables investigated. On the basis of the univariate and multivariate analysis of major variables, I concluded that there were no correlations between the number of females attracted with male attributes and no unambiguous correlation with attributes of the territory. My study does not unequivocally support either the "sexy son" or the polygyny threshold hypothesis.

An Investigation of the Role of Attention in the Cross-Race Effect: An Ecological Approach

The current set of studies was conducted to examine the cross-race effect (CRE), a phenomenon commonly found in the face perception literature. The CRE is evident when participants display better own-race face recognition accuracy than other-race recognition accuracy (e.g. Ackerman et al., 2006). Typically the cross-race effect is attributed to perceptual expertise, (i.e., other-race faces are processed less holistically; Michel, Rossion, Han, Chung & Caldara, 2006), and the social cognitive model (i.e., other-race faces are processed at the categorical level by virtue of being an out-group member; Hugenberg, Young, Bernstein, & Sacco, 2010). These effects may be mediated by differential attention. I investigated whether other-race faces are disregarded and, consequently, not remembered as accurately as own-race (in-group) faces. In Experiment 1, I examined how the magnitude of the CRE differed when participants learned individual faces sequentially versus when they learned multiple faces simultaneously in arrays comprising faces and objects. I also examined how the CRE differed when participants recognized individual faces presented sequentially versus in arrays of eight faces. Participants’ recognition accuracy was better for own-race faces than other-race faces regardless of familiarization method. However, the difference between own- and other-race accuracy was larger when faces were familiarized sequentially in comparison to familiarization with arrays. Participants’ response patterns during testing differed depending on the combination of familiarization and testing method. Participants had more false alarms for other-race faces than own-race faces if they learned faces sequentially (regardless of testing strategy); if participants learned faces in arrays, they had more false alarms for other-race faces than own-races faces if ii i they were tested with sequentially presented faces. These results are consistent with the perceptual expertise model in that participants were better able to use the full two seconds in the sequential task for own-race faces, but not for other-race faces. The purpose of Experiment 2 was to examine participants’ attentional allocation in complex scenes. Participants were shown scenes comprising people in real places, but the head stimuli used in Experiment 1 were superimposed onto the bodies in each scene. Using a Tobii eyetracker, participants’ looking time for both own- and other-race faces was evaluated to determine whether participants looked longer at own-race faces and whether individual differences in looking time correlated with individual differences in recognition accuracy. The results of this experiment demonstrated that although own-race faces were preferentially attended to in comparison to other-race faces, individual differences in looking time biases towards own-race faces did not correlate with individual differences in own-race recognition advantages. These results are also consistent with perceptual expertise, as it seems that the role of attentional biases towards own-race faces is independent of the cognitive processing that occurs for own-race faces. All together, these results have implications for face perception tasks that are performed in the lab, how accurate people may be when remembering faces in the real world, and the accuracy and patterns of errors in eyewitness testimony.

Design thinking and the precautionary principle : development of a theoretical model complementing preventive judgment for design for sustainability enriched through a study of architectural competitions adopting LEED

Cette thèse contribue à une théorie générale de la conception du projet. S’inscrivant dans une demande marquée par les enjeux du développement durable, l’objectif principal de cette recherche est la contribution d’un modèle théorique de la conception permettant de mieux situer l’utilisation des outils et des normes d’évaluation de la durabilité d’un projet. Les principes fondamentaux de ces instruments normatifs sont analysés selon quatre dimensions : ontologique, méthodologique, épistémologique et téléologique. Les indicateurs de certains effets contre-productifs reliés, en particulier, à la mise en compte de ces normes confirment la nécessité d’une théorie du jugement qualitatif. Notre hypothèse principale prend appui sur le cadre conceptuel offert par la notion de « principe de précaution » dont les premières formulations remontent du début des années 1970, et qui avaient précisément pour objectif de remédier aux défaillances des outils et méthodes d’évaluation scientifique traditionnelles. La thèse est divisée en cinq parties. Commençant par une revue historique des modèles classiques des théories de la conception (design thinking) elle se concentre sur l’évolution des modalités de prise en compte de la durabilité. Dans cette perspective, on constate que les théories de la « conception verte » (green design) datant du début des années 1960 ou encore, les théories de la « conception écologique » (ecological design) datant des années 1970 et 1980, ont finalement convergé avec les récentes théories de la «conception durable» (sustainable design) à partir du début des années 1990. Les différentes approches du « principe de précaution » sont ensuite examinées sous l’angle de la question de la durabilité du projet. Les standards d’évaluation des risques sont comparés aux approches utilisant le principe de précaution, révélant certaines limites lors de la conception d’un projet. Un premier modèle théorique de la conception intégrant les principales dimensions du principe de précaution est ainsi esquissé. Ce modèle propose une vision globale permettant de juger un projet intégrant des principes de développement durable et se présente comme une alternative aux approches traditionnelles d’évaluation des risques, à la fois déterministes et instrumentales. L’hypothèse du principe de précaution est dès lors proposée et examinée dans le contexte spécifique du projet architectural. Cette exploration débute par une présentation de la notion classique de «prudence» telle qu’elle fut historiquement utilisée pour guider le jugement architectural. Qu’en est-il par conséquent des défis présentés par le jugement des projets d’architecture dans la montée en puissance des méthodes d’évaluation standardisées (ex. Leadership Energy and Environmental Design; LEED) ? La thèse propose une réinterprétation de la théorie de la conception telle que proposée par Donald A. Schön comme une façon de prendre en compte les outils d’évaluation tels que LEED. Cet exercice révèle cependant un obstacle épistémologique qui devra être pris en compte dans une reformulation du modèle. En accord avec l’épistémologie constructiviste, un nouveau modèle théorique est alors confronté à l’étude et l’illustration de trois concours d'architecture canadienne contemporains ayant adopté la méthode d'évaluation de la durabilité normalisée par LEED. Une série préliminaire de «tensions» est identifiée dans le processus de la conception et du jugement des projets. Ces tensions sont ensuite catégorisées dans leurs homologues conceptuels, construits à l’intersection du principe de précaution et des théories de la conception. Ces tensions se divisent en quatre catégories : (1) conceptualisation - analogique/logique; (2) incertitude - épistémologique/méthodologique; (3) comparabilité - interprétation/analytique, et (4) proposition - universalité/ pertinence contextuelle. Ces tensions conceptuelles sont considérées comme autant de vecteurs entrant en corrélation avec le modèle théorique qu’elles contribuent à enrichir sans pour autant constituer des validations au sens positiviste du terme. Ces confrontations au réel permettent de mieux définir l’obstacle épistémologique identifié précédemment. Cette thèse met donc en évidence les impacts généralement sous-estimés, des normalisations environnementales sur le processus de conception et de jugement des projets. Elle prend pour exemple, de façon non restrictive, l’examen de concours d'architecture canadiens pour bâtiments publics. La conclusion souligne la nécessité d'une nouvelle forme de « prudence réflexive » ainsi qu’une utilisation plus critique des outils actuels d’évaluation de la durabilité. Elle appelle une instrumentalisation fondée sur l'intégration globale, plutôt que sur l'opposition des approches environnementales.

Study of baleen whales’ ecology and interaction with maritime traffic activities to support management of a complex socio-ecological system

Thesis written in co-mentorship with Robert Michaud.

A Log-linear model of grain size influence on the geochemistry of sediments

Sediment composition is mainly controlled by the nature of the source rock(s), and chemical (weathering) and physical processes (mechanical crushing, abrasion, hydrodynamic sorting) during alteration and transport. Although the factors controlling these processes are conceptually well understood, detailed quantification of compositional changes induced by a single process are rare, as are examples where the effects of several processes can be distinguished. The present study was designed to characterize the role of mechanical crushing and sorting in the absence of chemical weathering. Twenty sediment samples were taken from Alpine glaciers that erode almost pure granitoid lithologies. For each sample, 11 grain-size fractions from granules to clay (ø grades <-1 to >9) were separated, and each fraction was analysed for its chemical composition. The presence of clear steps in the box-plots of all parts (in adequate ilr and clr scales) against ø is assumed to be explained by typical crystal size ranges for the relevant mineral phases. These scatter plots and the biplot suggest a splitting of the full grain size range into three groups: coarser than ø=4 (comparatively rich in SiO2, Na2O, K2O, Al2O3, and dominated by “felsic” minerals like quartz and feldspar), finer than ø=8 (comparatively rich in TiO2, MnO, MgO, Fe2O3, mostly related to “mafic” sheet silicates like biotite and chlorite), and intermediate grains sizes (4≤ø <8; comparatively rich in P2O5 and CaO, related to apatite, some feldspar). To further test the absence of chemical weathering, the observed compositions were regressed against three explanatory variables: a trend on grain size in ø scale, a step function for ø≥4, and another for ø≥8. The original hypothesis was that the trend could be identified with weathering effects, whereas each step function would highlight those minerals with biggest characteristic size at its lower end. Results suggest that this assumption is reasonable for the step function, but that besides weathering some other factors (different mechanical behavior of minerals) have also an important contribution to the trend. Key words: sediment, geochemistry, grain size, regression, step function

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies: a case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

The objective of this paper is to introduce a diVerent approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. Design—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-termeVects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona,Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992–1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were nonlinear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. Main results—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 μg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 μg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant,especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Conclusions—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities

A deterministic model for lake clarity; application to management of Lake Tahoe (California-Nevada), USA

This dissertation has as its goal the quantitative evaluation of the application of coupled hydrodynamic, ecological and clarity models, to address the deterministic prediction of water clarity in lakes and reservoirs. Prediction of water clarity is somewhat unique, insofar as it represents the integrated and coupled effects of a broad range of individual water quality components. These include the biological components such as phytoplankton, together with the associated cycles of nutrients that are needed to sustain their popuiations, and abiotic components such as suspended particles that may be introduced by streams, atmospheric deposition or sediment resuspension. Changes in clarity induced by either component will feed back on the phytoplankton dynamics, as incident light also affects biological growth. Thus ability to successfully model changes in clarity will by necessity have to achieve the correct modeling of these other water quality parameters. Water clarity is also unique in that it may be one of the earliest and most easily detected wamings of the acceleration of the process of eutrophication in a water body.

Identification of Putative Wintering Areas and Ecological Determinants of Population Dynamics of Common House-Martin (Delichon urbicum) and Common Swift (Apus apus) Breeding in Northern Italy

To identify the causes of population decline in migratory birds, researchers must determine the relative influence of environmental changes on population dynamics while the birds are on breeding grounds, wintering grounds, and en route between the two. This is problematic when the wintering areas of specific populations are unknown. Here, we first identified the putative wintering areas of Common House-Martin (Delichon urbicum) and Common Swift (Apus apus) populations breeding in northern Italy as those areas, within the wintering ranges of these species, where the winter Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which may affect winter survival, best predicted annual variation in population indices observed in the breeding grounds in 1992–2009. In these analyses, we controlled for the potentially confounding effects of rainfall in the breeding grounds during the previous year, which may affect reproductive success; the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), which may account for climatic conditions faced by birds during migration; and the linear and squared term of year, which account for nonlinear population trends. The areas thus identified ranged from Guinea to Nigeria for the Common House-Martin, and were located in southern Ghana for the Common Swift. We then regressed annual population indices on mean NDVI values in the putative wintering areas and on the other variables, and used Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and hierarchical partitioning (HP) of variance to assess their relative contribution to population dynamics. We re-ran all the analyses using NDVI values at different spatial scales, and consistently found that our population of Common House-Martin was primarily affected by spring rainfall (43%–47.7% explained variance) and NDVI (24%–26.9%), while the Common Swift population was primarily affected by the NDVI (22.7%–34.8%). Although these results must be further validated, currently they are the only hypotheses about the wintering grounds of the Italian populations of these species, as no Common House-Martin and Common Swift ringed in Italy have been recovered in their wintering ranges.

Identifying the critical parameters of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model by using generalised sensitivity analysis

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

Spatial analysis of the error in a model of soil nitrogen

Models of the dynamics of nitrogen in soil (soil-N) can be used to aid the fertilizer management of a crop. The predictions of soil-N models can be validated by comparison with observed data. Validation generally involves calculating non-spatial statistics of the observations and predictions, such as their means, their mean squared-difference, and their correlation. However, when the model predictions are spatially distributed across a landscape the model requires validation with spatial statistics. There are three reasons for this: (i) the model may be more or less successful at reproducing the variance of the observations at different spatial scales; (ii) the correlation of the predictions with the observations may be different at different spatial scales; (iii) the spatial pattern of model error may be informative. In this study we used a model, parameterized with spatially variable input information about the soil, to predict the mineral-N content of soil in an arable field, and compared the results with observed data. We validated the performance of the N model spatially with a linear mixed model of the observations and model predictions, estimated by residual maximum likelihood. This novel approach allowed us to describe the joint variation of the observations and predictions as: (i) independent random variation that occurred at a fine spatial scale; (ii) correlated random variation that occurred at a coarse spatial scale; (iii) systematic variation associated with a spatial trend. The linear mixed model revealed that, in general, the performance of the N model changed depending on the spatial scale of interest. At the scales associated with random variation, the N model underestimated the variance of the observations, and the predictions were correlated poorly with the observations. At the scale of the trend, the predictions and observations shared a common surface. The spatial pattern of the error of the N model suggested that the observations were affected by the local soil condition, but this was not accounted for by the N model. In summary, the N model would be well-suited to field-scale management of soil nitrogen, but suited poorly to management at finer spatial scales. This information was not apparent with a non-spatial validation. (c),2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model.

1. There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6. Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

Ecological and life-history traits predict bee species responses to environmental disturbances

The ability to predict the responses of ecological communities and individual species to human-induced environmental change remains a key issue for ecologists and conservation managers alike. Responses are often variable among species within groups making general predictions difficult. One option is to include ecological trait information that might help to disentangle patterns of response and also provide greater understanding of how particular traits link whole clades to their environment. Although this ‘‘trait-guild” approach has been used for single disturbances, the importance of particular traits on general responses to multiple disturbances has not been explored. We used a mixed model analysis of 19 data sets from throughout the world to test the effect of ecological and life-history traits on the responses of bee species to different types of anthropogenic environmental change. These changes included habitat loss, fragmentation, agricultural intensification, pesticides and fire. Individual traits significantly affected bee species responses to different disturbances and several traits were broadly predictive among multiple disturbances. The location of nests – above vs. below ground – significantly affected response to habitat loss, agricultural intensification, tillage regime (within agriculture) and fire. Species that nested above ground were on average more negatively affected by isolation from natural habitat and intensive agricultural land use than were species nesting below ground. In contrast below-ground-nesting species were more negatively affected by tilling than were above-ground nesters. The response of different nesting guilds to fire depended on the time since the burn. Social bee species were more strongly affected by isolation from natural habitat and pesticides than were solitary bee species. Surprisingly, body size did not consistently affect species responses, despite its importance in determining many aspects of individuals’ interaction with their environment. Although synergistic interactions among traits remain to be explored, individual traits can be useful in predicting and understanding responses of related species to global change.

The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.